3SOF

Nice AH pop,after a down session like today, it's a relief. Hope the CC goes well.

Quote from: soxguy on November 01, 2007, 04:32:53 PM
Nice AH pop,after a down session like today, it's a relief. Hope the CC goes well.

It couldn't be better soxguy

We have a lot of material to work in this conference call. All my expectations were confirmed, the company is working to insert VibeTonz in hundreds of millions of mobile devices.

And there are already mobile phones in the market, from Samsung and LG, using IMMR's VibeTonz, check for example the "Giorgio Armani Mobile Phone".

«By adapting a haptical UI, users can feel an immediate mild vibration when they touch icons on the display.»

The company is currently working on 50 models from Nokia, Samsung and LG.

I also welcome the $50 M share buyback program. I already didn't worry about dilution here, but wasn't counting on the company buying back shares either.

Management has a lot of faith in getting revenues from content for mobile devices which uses touch feedback technology, like messages and games, but I wasn't even counting on this.

I'm somewhat short on time today, but we'll cover more aspects of this conference call over the next few updates.

No doubt I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term, I think this stock has the potential to be a ten bagger if given time.

IMMR had that type of behavior seen so many times, when very positive and relevant information is release and yet investors sell the stock after the higher open. It happened that way too when the company announced the favorable end of the Sony litigation, back in March 2007, look at this black candle:



One month later IMMR was still below that higher open, but four months later it was 100% higher. It goes to show how reaction, sometimes, takes time.

I believe that in 6 months time IMMR will surely be trading at a new high above $21 and I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.

David, another much more profitable touch screen play is SYNA, synaptics. May be if you consider it for the portfolio if you feel its great investment. They just had a blew up quarter last week and stock is holding on to much of the gains.

Quote from: stocky on November 05, 2007, 03:34:31 PM
David, another much more profitable touch screen play is SYNA, synaptics. May be if you consider it for the portfolio if you feel its great investment. They just had a blew up quarter last week and stock is holding on to much of the gains.

SYNA's fundamental trends are powerful, but it is already a $1.6 B market cap, while IMMR is $0.46 B.

Anyway, it looks good to make a more in depth analysis, thanks stocky

I've been studying SYNA's technology and it is different from IMMR's. SYNA's is already widespread used, in fact, I have it both my computers. Also I don't think SYNA's business model is as profitable as IMMR's.

Still an interesting company, though, good luck if you own it stocky

I think that anyone holding IMMR or interested in the stock should listen to the 3rd quarter conference call.

Even though there's some important specific information lacking, like for example, the details of the licensing agreement with Nokia, I believe it is clear this company is set for very strong revenue and profit growth.

I believe IMMR can be a $3 B business a couple of years from now, that is, six times more than what it is now.

IMMR's management seems alert to any new products that may infringe the company's intellectual property. I wrote the following e-mail to them:

«IMMR's shareholder question

Hello, I've noticed this device (http://home.novint.com/products/novint_falcon.php) from Novint (NVNT.OB) and I would like to know if this company has a licensing agreement with IMMR? If not I would like to turn your attention to it, since it appears to me that it violates IMMR's intelectual property.

Thank you,
David Randolph
www.3stocksonfire.org»

And the reply was:

«David

Thanks for your email. We know Novint and their products quite well.

Novint is currently not a licensee.

Regards
Stephen Ambler
CFO - Immersion Corporation»

Even though I gave you the Giorgio Armani mobile phone as an example, I believe this and other models with the VibeTonz technology are still not for sale in stores, are they?

For the next update I'll listen the conference call again and will take notice of all the models mentioned and then I'll investigate if they're already in the marketplace or not and will also check their average selling price.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

Instead of listening to the conference call (again), I read the 3rd quarter 10-Q filed with the SEC looking for any clue relative to Nokia's licensing agreement, but zip, niente, nada, zero.

But I got this important information:



IMMR's segment with the highest potential, Immersion Computing, Entertainment and Industrial is still losing money, as expected, since those mobile phones with the VibeTonz technology still didn't hit the marketplace.

But, from an assets perspective, look at this unit's value:



$175 M. Wait for this unit to start getting very significant revenues and profits in 2008 and especially in 2009, when possibly hundreds of millions of mobile phones will be sold with the VibeTonz technology. IMMR just needs $1 for each phone sold. I wonder if this is the real value they'll get, or less, or more. There's no public information on the subject, I got the $1 estimate because of what the company received in the Sony litigation, 1.67% of Sony's revenues using IMMR's technology. Here I'm considering just 1% of $100 for each mobile phone sold, on average (we've learned a while back the average price is actually $120 plus).

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

On July 2nd, 2007, IMMR released the "Nokia news". In my opinion this news completely changed IMMR's future prospects. It meant that it is possible that in the near future Nokia will incorporate the VibeTonz technology in most, if not all of its new mobile phones (and Nokia sells more than 400 million of these a year).

On a rough estimate this would mean $400 M in annual revenue and $200 M in net income for IMMR, which is a $427 M market cap company.

And yet, IMMR is currently trading below the price it was trading when that very relevant news hit the wires. I believe there's a deep inefficiency here, it doesn't make any sense.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

WHAY IS there high insider selling? specially from the CEO??!

Quote from: guledh0 on November 12, 2007, 02:49:58 PM
WHAY IS there high insider selling? specially from the CEO??!

I don't see it guledh0. The CEO sold a few shares coming from his options incentive plan:

«1. The exercise and sale reported in this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on June 8 2007.»

Since August the CEO converted and sold 102,081 shares of IMMR. That's not a lot, it's a normal stock options incentive plan.

What is your source for insider sales? Thanks

To me what is happening with IMMR is ridiculous, it derives from the lack of information ... any prospective buyer misses IMMR's story entirely, unless he really digs a lot. I guess IMMR's problem is that it is a story of the future, there aren't hard earnings in the present to justify the stock's valuation. Even though the future is highly likely and not all that far off, the market doesn't care, it is compressing the valuation on all stocks.

I don't care about what the market thinks at the present either. I see IMMR up six fold over the next couple of years and I'll hold for that. I want to see the mobile phones using the VibeTonz technology in my hand and that reflected in the company's revenues and earnings. Then I'll judge.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

The lower IMMR goes over the short term, the better for its long term prospects

Strange affirmation, isn't it? Let me explain.

IMMR's management recently announced a $50 M buyback program:

• Immersion to buy back up to $50 mln of shares
at Reuters (Thu, Nov 1)

So, the lower the stock price is, the more shares $50 M will buy. And that means a lower # of shares outstanding in the future and therefore a higher EPS number.

There are two problems with these investments "in the future":

1) There's no linearity between the present and the future, that is, one doesn't get a step by step confirmation that he's right about the long term outlook. The future will come as a bang, not as a process, because it won't be seen by the majority until it actually happens. But, it can also happen as a process, there's always doubt ... or, the bang can come any minute with a press release explaining Nokia's licensing agreement details, for example. This is why one needs to patiently keep holding the stock in my view.

2) One needs a lot of patience and confidence that this is the right path to wealth creation.

I know the problems but believe the benefits outweigh them.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term. 

At first glance it looks like a lot of insider selling. One must scroll down to see they are exercising options (I think that is what you call it). David, isn't there a time limit, when a company gives an employee or board of director shares, for them to sell their shares?



http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1058811.htm

OK, a little research, I will answer my question. Employees typically must wait a specified vesting period before being allowed to exercise the option. 

Quote from: Houlahan on November 18, 2007, 07:51:35 PM
OK, a little research, I will answer my question. Employees typically must wait a specified vesting period before being allowed to exercise the option. 

Yep, a common shareholder doesn't like employee stock options plans much because they dilute shareholders value, but since IMMR will buy $50 M of its own shares I guess dilution won't be a problem going forward, quite the opposite.

IMMR broke down below the "key" $13.58 short term support yesterday, almost touching the 200 days SMA support, currently at $12.92. I guess this was due to general market weakness and investors perceiving IMMR as overvalued relatively to its financial numbers, not looking into the future.

As I look into the future I see hundreds of millions of mobile devices sold annually using the VibeTonz technology and that should bring hundreds of millions in revenue for the company at a very high gross and net margin.

And it won't be the market to tell me I'm wrong, only the actual future reality can show me that.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.