3SOF

 

 TBS International Limited Announces Date for the Release of the Third Quarter 2007 Results, Conference Call and Webcast
Monday , October 22, 2007 16:05ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200603/250144_tbs.gif

HAMILTON, BERMUDA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 10/22/07 -- TBS International Limited (NASDAQ: TBSI) announced today that after the market closes in New York on Thursday, November 8, 2007 it will release its results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2007.

The next day, Friday, November 9, 2007 at 10:00 a.m. EST, the company's management will host a conference call to discuss the results.

Conference call details:

Participants should dial into the call 10 minutes before the scheduled time using the following numbers: 1-866-770-7129 (from the US) or 1-617-213-8067 (International Dial in). Participant Passcode: 78498720. The conference call will also be webcast live on the company's website: www.tbsship.com by clicking on the webcast link.

Replay:

A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available from 12:00 p.m. EST on Friday, November 9, 2007 until Friday, November 16, 2007 by dialing 1-888-286-8010 (from the US) or 1-617-801-6888 (from outside the US). Access Code: 29800490. A replay of the webcast will be available soon after the completion of the call.

Webcast:

There will also be a live -- and then archived -- slides and audio webcast of the conference call on the company's website www.tbsship.com, which can be accessed by clicking on the webcast link. As soon as practicable, the webcast and the corresponding slides will be archived and will also be accessible on our website.

awesome chart:

Quote from: BigSully1 on August 08, 2007, 12:48:18 PM
Continues setting new highs. David made big mistake selling this winner and holding losers.

Indeed Sully, this was one of my biggest mistakes in 2007, selling TBSI for a paltry 34% profit Joining this I would put JASO and EXM, other 100% plus gainers which I let go for a small profit or loss. But I believe these mistakes taught me an important lesson for the future, the value of patience.

I've been watching TBSI rise from the sidelines, but now that the company reported spectacular 3rd quarter results I can't take it anymore. I need to buy back TBSI, this time with a very long term horizon.

Here's why:

- TBSI made EPS of $0.96 in the 3rd quarter 2007, up from $0.33 in Q3 2006. I expect revenues and EPS to keep growing strongly over the next five years, because one thing we're certain that it won't slow down is international trade. With the internet it is easy to see where the best products at the best prices are, but products still need to move from one side of the World to the other, and they go by ship. I expect demand for TBSI's vessel services to keep growing immensely over the next 5 - 10 years and this means higher prices and higher profit margins;

- The two analysts covering the stock are calling for $4.27 EPS in 2008, but I believe it will be more, since the company is on track to make, I would say, $3 plus this year (it already made $2.24 in the first nine months of the year);

- One of the most impressive things about these results is that they were accomplished with many of the company's ships in dry dock:

«"Our accelerated drydock and vessel upgrade program is on schedule. For 2007, we plan to drydock 19 of our 33 vessels and one vessel that we plan to acquire during the fourth quarter, for approximately 990 drydock days in total. During the first nine months, we had 17 vessels in drydock for a total of 823 days, of which 261 days were in the third quarter of 2007.»

990 days in total minus 893 in the first nine months tells me there will be 167 dry dock days in Q4 2007, compared with 261 days in the 3rd. This tells me that probably Q4 EPS will be even higher than the $0.96 reported in Q3, bringing the overall 2007 EPS number to, say, $3.20 - $3.50 level.

I also appreciate the fact that TBSI actually reduced its average number of shares outstanding a bit (much different from NM, which has been heavily diluting shareholder's value).

I've been wanting to buy something in the Shipping Industry, to try to compensate for the huge misses in TBSI and EXM. But TBSI was the best and it still is the best in my opinion.

I feel somewhat embarrassed about buying this stock so much higher than from where I took a 34% profit (see what one gets for trading, instead of investing for the long term?), but I need to correct my mistakes and in this case I'll do it by buying back TBSI around today's open.

I see the stock is about unchanged from yesterday's close and I welcome that others are fearful.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy TBSI, 6.66% of capital as usual.

David, have you considered DRYS, its forward P/E is only 6, half of TBSI's forward P/E.  Also DRYS is now at its 50 day.  It seems that DRYS has more cash on hand and has taken advantage of the spot market thereby increasing revenues at a faster pace than the other shippers.   Just wondering why you like TBSI better than DRYS?

this is probably the reason why TBSI and not DRYS was picked by David:

World's Scariest Stock: DryShips
By Rich "Cap'n Blood" Smith October 29, 2007 Comments (20)

Ahoy, investors! Methinks me sees a ghost ship cresting the horizon. Sails tattered, the Jolly Roger hoisted -- why, it's not just a ghost ship, it's a ghost ship manned by pirates, arggh! And its brig is crammed with the lost souls of investors, imprisoned behind the iron bars of logic.

The Flying Dutchman, you say? Nay, landlubber. This is something faaaaar scarier. This is Athenian cargo carrier DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS).

Gasp! What's that sound?
Originally chartered to ferry loads of coal, steel, and other commodities across the waves, DryShips bears a different cargo today. You can hear the wails of lamentation emanating from its hull, the moans of investors who've publicly panned DryShips' stock on Motley Fool CAPS -- and suffered the consequences:

TMFOtter: "In the 1990's, the last time capital was cheap, [DryShips CEO George Economou] took an identical company public and evaporated every last penny of shareholder capital."

Steve819 [Quoting Barron's editor Kathryn M. Welling]: "When someone asked why he was [taking his company public, Economou] actually said, basically, 'Because Americans are the dumbest investors around, and there's lots of liquidity in this market.'"

Allstar13913: "The CEO is crooked, and directly owns a competing company." (privately owned Cardiff Marine, Inc.)

TMFEldrehad: "'We do not intend to sell shares,' [Economou] said. This means the company can put a big part of equity back into buying vessels. Economou added: 'We can deliver more money for every dollar invested in the company.'... Selling shares in a secondary offering will result in more equity with which to buy ships, but that's not what he's saying -- he's saying not selling shares translates into more equity. I need some Dramamine, because my head feels like it's spinning from trying to understand this."

These CAPS players have three things in common. First, they're all extremely leery of DryShips' management. Second, they're all good enough investors that their concerns should be your concerns, too. Each and every one ranks in the top 1% of investors tracked by CAPS. Third and finally -- they've all lost big time in their bets against DryShips, in some cases, seeing the stock rise more than 1,000% since placing their bearish bets.

Madness
Has an epidemic of insanity swept the coast of CAPS-land? Or is there truly something wrong with DryShips? As one of the many investors who've seen their CAPS ranking decimated by betting against the company, I've asked myself this question more than once. But the more I look, the more I see red flags waving alongside the skull-and-crossbones at DryShips.

In what sane universe do capital-intensive companies like these deserve multiples to book value approaching those of asset-lite profit leaders like Google and Microsoft?

And while I'll grant you that the dry bulk shipping industry is booming, I fail to see why a single player within this industry -- DryShips -- should enjoy a valuation more than 50% higher than its nearest rival, and more than twice that of some of the ships giving more distant chase.

Sure, it gets the best margins of the bunch, but that just raises more flags. Reviewing DryShips' results, we see that much of its profit over the past year was derived from gains on the sale of assets. Meanwhile, the firm's cash flow statements don't show this supposedly wildly profitable firm generating any cash profits since its IPO. On the contrary, over the last year, the firm has burned through nearly $500 million in free cash flow, as its long-term debt ballooned from $418 million to $728 million. Somewhere, this corporate ship has sprung a leak.

If DryShips can't generate free cash flow on sky-high margins, I shudder to think what will happen when those profit margins splash back down to sea level. And you should to -- because this is the scariest stock in the world.

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2007/10/29/dryships-is-haunted.aspx


cheers
Oliver

Good Morning la-onda,
Thank you for posting about DRYS. I saw the post by Motley Fools and should had posted the information. I got out awhile ago.

awesome results imho, from TA side looks like the bottom

Q3 slides:
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/19/191/191718/items/269389/TBSI_Q307Presentation.pdf
quotation:

Thanks for these slides La-onda

Those dry-dock days, and they were many in 2007, represent a cost and not a revenue for TBSI, at least over the short term. But they're necessary to keep the long term health of the business.

TBSI grew EPS in the 3rd quarter by 174%, from $0.35 a year ago to $0.96 in Q3 2007. And, according to analysts' estimates calling for $4.27 EPS in 2008 (I think it will be more), the stock is trading at 12.5 times forward earnings. I call this very cheap.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

Do someone has any ideas why TBSI lost 20% today?
Profit taking?

Short term moves are based on fear or greed. Take your pick, that 's what's going on IMO. Do i like it? no. Still,i bought more tbsi at the end of the session.

Quote from: terainvestment on November 12, 2007, 04:23:30 PM
Do someone has any ideas why TBSI lost 20% today?
Profit taking?

I guess it was profit taking and people fearing/expecting a global economic slowdown to take freight rates down and therefore take TBSI's revenues and earnings down. I totally disagree with this view, if there's one thing that I'm absolutely confident that will keep growing strongly is demand for maritime transportation.

TBSI derived 71% of its $92 M revenue in Q3 2007 from outside the US:



And I'm expected to sell this stock, trading at less than 10 times 2008 expected earnings, because of a potential US slowdown?

I'm not going to do it. I feel the pain of a 20% one day drop like everybody else, but I remain convinced that TBSI is an $80 plus stock and I'll keep holding it for the long term.

EXM getting clobbered after hours,tugging TBSI with it

Shipping index is hitting new high, so the natural conclusion is TBSI is taking business away from EXM?

Also TBSI is more diversified than EXM and I am under the impression that last time David mentioned EXM's fleet is pretty old, my memory could be wrong ...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071113/sector_snap_drybulk_shippers.html?.v=1

Quote from: soxguy on November 13, 2007, 04:24:58 PM
EXM getting clobbered after hours,tugging TBSI with it

urrh, what is up with TBSI today?  I understand that EXM missed, but DSX beat the street and TBSI gets taken out to the woodshed again.  David, are the shipping stocks being taken down to reflect a slowing economy in terms of P/E?  It sucks to watch the shipping sector fly for months, then all of a sudden we buy and it decides to go down.  Guess we'll see what happens next week.

I hope this helps the shipping stocks soon.

http://www.livemint.com/2007/11/15000635/Freight-seen-costlier-ahead-of.html