3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on November 14, 2007, 10:18:59 AM
So far nothing in the conference call to take the stock down 10% in my opinion ... it is entering the Q&A session now.

Nothing negative in the Q&A session either. I guess the stock is down today because it was up 28% yesterday and EPS for this quarter wasn't inspiring for continued buying, therefore profit taking kicked in.

I took a few notes:

- Over the next few days a press release will be out about a new partnership between GIGM and Electronic Arts (ERTS), the largest gaming company in the World. The partnership is for GIGM to operate one of ERTS's online game in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao;

- MahJong for $$ didn't start as well as expected, but everything was resolved now and they're seeing positive momentum now. The exclusivity rights for the company currently partnering with GIGM here just ended. There wasn't any contribution from MahJong in Q3 (not to be expected either);

- Japanese suite of games beta version to be launched before Christmas. The real deal will be launched in Q1 2008 and management expects a strong contribution from this in 2008;

- Hellgate: London is expected to be launched just in Q2 or Q3 2008. There was already a very significant marketing effort which will continue.

All in all I think today's weakness in GIGM is an attractive long term buying opportunity.

Ahhh, just saw your new message eggman11 ... well, this wasn't excellent, but, better than nothing.  Will make a better one after the close.

Updated 15-Nov-07 09:07 ET    Upgrade for gigm

Coverage Reit/Price Tgt Changed*Sort alphabetically | Sort by brokers

Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
Labor Ready LRW BMO Capital Markets Market Perform $20 » $19
AutoZone AZO BMO Capital Markets Underperform $105 » $102
Sina SINA RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform $39 » $58
Potash POT RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $145 » $155
Genius Products  GNPI RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform $3 » $2.50
Fifth Third FITB RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform $32 » $31
Applied Materials AMAT AmTech Research Buy $25 » $24
Bear Stearns BSC Punk, Ziegel & Co Mkt Perform $120 » $109
Network Appliance NTAP Needham & Co Buy $32 » $34
Daktronics DAKT Needham & Co Buy $34 » $26
Longs Drug LDG Lehman Brothers Overweight $60 » $65
HHGregg HGG Lehman Brothers Overweight $17 » $19
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock GLDD Lehman Brothers Equal-weight $10 » $10.50
Analog Devices ADI Lehman Brothers Equal-weight $36 » $34
AmeriGas Partners APU Lehman Brothers Underweight  $35.50 » $37.50
Marshall & Ilsley MI Stifel Nicolaus Buy $50 » $38
Applied Materials AMAT Stifel Nicolaus Buy $27 » $26
MRU Holdings UNCL Kaufman Bros Buy $9 » $10
Basin Water BWTR Roth Capital Hold $9 » $8
GSE Systems, Inc. GVP Roth Capital Buy $8 » $11
GigaMedia  GIGM Roth Capital Buy $22 » $25
Tsakos Energy TNP Cantor Fitzgerald Buy $84 » $42
Charlotte Russe CHIC Friedman Billings Mkt Perform $15 » $18
Nastech Pharm NSTK Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform $14 » $8
ITT Industries ITT Friedman Billings Mkt Perform $69 » $68

as promised by the Mgmt:

GigaMedia and Electronic Arts Bring Basketball to Asia with Hot Sports Title, NBA Street Online
Friday , November 16, 2007 04:21ET

TAIPEI, Taiwan, Nov. 16 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM) announced today that it has secured an exclusive license from Electronic Arts Inc. ("EA"), the world's leading developer and publisher of interactive entertainment, to offer and operate the hot new sports game NBA Street Online in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.

NBA Street Online is an exciting online version of EA's enormously popular NBA games series, featuring fast-paced street basketball action with today's biggest NBA superstars, all in true-to-life detail.

"Sports games are a huge, untapped market in Asia, and EA is a sports superstar," stated GigaMedia Limited Chief Executive Officer Arthur Wang.
"Everyone knows the great basketball games from EA," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "Now we are taking it online in Asia with NBA Street Online, one of the best and most exciting sports games ever."

Basketball is the world's most popular professional sport and NBA players are some of the hottest stars in Asia.
"We are very excited to be partnering with GigaMedia on this project and delivering it first in Taiwan," stated President Jon Niermann of EA Asia. "Basketball is the #1 sport in Taiwan and we are confident of continued great success in the sport with NBA Street Online."

"We are thrilled to partner with EA and the NBA to bring the hottest sports game online to millions of fans in new high-growth markets," stated CEO Arthur Wang.

Under the terms of the agreement, GigaMedia has exclusive rights to operate NBA Street Online in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau for three years.

"We are committed to building a dominant online entertainment brand in Asia, partnering with the world's top game developers like EA, and delivering a full range of today's most relevant content -- all leveraging a massive and growing network of over 68 million users," added CEO Arthur Wang.

NBA Street Online is an easy to control, fast-paced street basketball game. The game features various playing modes to practice or take on NBA superstars, enabling gamers to build skill and reputation, unlocking new challenges. NBA Street Online features special elements that are designed specifically for the online multiplayer experience including matchmaking, specialized player customization, and the ability to create your own clubs to play online with friends and defend your court. Realistic gameplay and true- to-life details make NBA stars jump to life and powerful community functions and various in-game items allow gamers to live and breathe basketball like never before. NBA Street Online features over 200 official NBA players, with logos and uniforms included.
NBA Street Online was co-developed by EA Canada and Neowiz. NBA Street Online is expected to launch in 2008.

GIGM should enter the IBD 100 list this week.

The IBD (Investors Buisines Daily) Top 100 is a list of their top 100 stocks based on Ratings for Earnings and Relative Strength to be on list you must have an earnings rating of over 80 and a relative strength over 80 and a stock price over 16. Before this week earnings announcement their earnings ratings was 76, but now it is at 99. The list get updated once per week in Saturday's newspaper. Although they post it online Friday Night for subscribers(which I am not), but I will buy tomorrows paper. I think GIGM will not only be in top 100 but will make it easily into the top 50 maybe top 30.

Being in the IBD Top 100 will immediately enhance GIGM profile, they are a lot people who only buy the IBD 100 and it is very influential with a lot of active investors. Stock have been known to become mutiple baggers upon entry into the IBD Top 100 I expected a nice pop in the stock price on Monday on heavy volume.

Once I find out the exact ranking I will post it here.

Quote from: eggman11 on November 16, 2007, 03:40:52 PM
GIGM should enter the IBD 100 list this week.

The IBD (Investors Buisines Daily) Top 100 is a list of their top 100 stocks based on Ratings for Earnings and Relative Strength to be on list you must have an earnings rating of over 80 and a relative strength over 80 and a stock price over 16. Before this week earnings announcement their earnings ratings was 76, but now it is at 99. The list get updated once per week in Saturday's newspaper. Although they post it online Friday Night for subscribers(which I am not), but I will buy tomorrows paper. I think GIGM will not only be in top 100 but will make it easily into the top 50 maybe top 30.

Being in the IBD Top 100 will immediately enhance GIGM profile, they are a lot people who only buy the IBD 100 and it is very influential with a lot of active investors. Stock have been known to become mutiple baggers upon entry into the IBD Top 100 I expected a nice pop in the stock price on Monday on heavy volume.

Once I find out the exact ranking I will post it here.

The list hasn't been updated yet online. Overall rating 97=A+, Still  "best in Group" (out of 42 stocks) all categories, except attractiveness where it has fallen to 2nd place. They have GIGM grouped in with the internet-software stocks.

Actually, I kind of doubt it's going to make the list, but am hoping so.

You were right Eggman, GIGM debuted on the list at #25.

Thanks Big Sully,

#25 Debut pretty good, we should see move up on high volume come Monday.

Eggman, don't be disappointed if it doesn't immediately rise dramatically next week. For one thing IBD always preaches to only buy within 5% of key levels, like confirmed major support areas or within 5% of a pivot point on breakout of a solid base, with confirming indicators, mainly volume. They also preach to never buy overextended. I don't think GIGM is overextended at all anymore, but is now forming a base.

Alot of people think the IBD 100 is an automatic buy list, but it's not. They repeatedly state as much in their paper. It's those that don't read and just buy because it's on the list that are always condemning IBD.

What GIGM does have going for it is that was already above $15 ( an IBD requirement) before it ever appeared on the list. Some of those that have had strong fundamentals and momentum and the only thing keeping them off the list was the $15 requirement, finally met that requirement and then almost immediately sell off after debuting on the list in an already overextended state. ICOC, IDSA, NGA are just a few that come to mind. Well NGA was already destined to be removed anyway because the dummies did a stock split.

GIGM's going to do just fine and I really believe that. Like I said before, it's a keeper, no need to watch too closely. I look for it to stay on the IBD 100 for a very long time.

David, I do not understand this SEC Form 4.
Is it a mis-print or a subsidiary to GIGM??
It is displaying    2. Issuer Name and  Ticker or Trading Symbol;
                                     GIGAMEDIA LTD [ GIGA] not GIGM

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1105101.htm

http://www.secform4.com/filings/1105101/000093583607000379.htm

Hmm, we still don't have the 3rd quarter conference call transcript at GIGM's website. These conference call transcripts are a nice service they provide to investors.

Analysts now expect $0.18 EPS for the 4th quarter of 2007 and $0.20 EPS for the 1st quarter of 2008. I actually think we'll get the $0.20 right here in this quarter, because of very strong seasonality.

Longer term, as BigSully1 says, "GIGM is a keeper".

Hi David,

often you said that movements of 3sof portfolios are totally indipendent from market environment.
I see that in those last weeks the 3sof multiplied by a factor of three the bad returns the market had, so the beta is 3 and not "indipendent".

I think you should implement some strategy to reduce the volatility of the portfolio. Volatility is something pretty bad and great returns over the long term can be totally destroyed by a couple of weeks like we had in November.

Cheers,

Tera

QuoteHi David,

often you said that movements of 3sof portfolios are totally independent from market environment.
I see that in those last weeks the 3sof multiplied by a factor of three the bad returns the market had, so the beta is 3 and not "independent".

Yes, short term evidence shows you're right. The Main is still beating the return of the S&P 500 by a factor of 12 to 1, or by 12 percentage points in 2007.

QuoteI think you should implement some strategy to reduce the volatility of the portfolio. Volatility is something pretty bad and great returns over the long term can be totally destroyed by a couple of weeks like we had in November.

Only if one is a victim of volatility. If one ignores it, he should come out allright over the long term. Anyway, I wouldn't know how to reduce the volatility, unless I became a short term trader which would be very hard to follow. My plan is to find great companies to invest for the long term and then do it, ignoring short term fluctuations.

It has been a very tough year, this 2007. Hopefully 2008 will be more smooth. Thanks for your comments terainvestment

The next big positive news release I'm expecting from GIGM in early December is the press release announcing the launch of the Japanese suite of games. Only people who listened to the conference calls know the company has been working for more than a year on this project, since it never came up on any press release.

This business segment alone has the potential to double GIGM's revenues and profits in a couple of years, in my view. I hope we'll have some more details in the upcoming press release.

I'll keep holding GIGM for the long term.

enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyBKtsfDq5k

&

GIGM: Short Interest DN 11.6% to 2.2M in Mid Nov 2007
Tuesday , November 27, 2007 16:18ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 11.6% to 2,160,011 shares as reported in mid-November, 2007. Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,722,855, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.