3SOF

QuoteDavid, what's your take on the charts of SPY and the QQQQ's?  The reason I'm asking is the last time we had a major down trend you were correct on your analysis in calling the bottom.

I'm no master at all, far from it, but I believe the SPY hit the bottom today and I give you three reasons for that:

1) The SPY is in a lateral trend and hit support today at $143.7, as you can see on the chart below;
2) Goldman Sachs issued a SELL recommendation for Citigroup today. The big boys wouldn't do this if they wanted to sell, I think they're buying and will push the market up in the two final hours of trading;
3) There's going to be a report out on housing at 1 pm. Prior to this, this report declined for eight straight months and of course forecasts for the November number are for another decline. I believe that if we get just "not so negative" news it will be enough to spark a rally in the stock market.

Unfortunately for the bulls here I can be wrong.

I have lost more money in these 2 weeks of November than at any other 2 week period ever lol.  This business of holding through corrections can get pretty nerve wracking, but Im hanging in there.

Quote from: tokyopua on November 19, 2007, 11:59:37 PM
I have lost more money in these 2 weeks of November than at any other 2 week period ever lol.  This business of holding through corrections can get pretty nerve wracking, but Im hanging in there.

I am 100% with you tokyopua ! 

Old Fool quotation:
Nasty, nasty.  The bears seem to have a headlock on this market.  Obviously, as evidenced by the volume, the chief bull has no interest in coming out to play.  The volume today was down significantly at 2.1 billion but the ratio was huge - 5.3 to 1 in favor of the bears.  All of my bottoming charts are screaming up so look for a big move in the next few days.  Shorts should keep tight stops and not bet against the tape.

The daily chart is firmly in the bear camp.  Nuff said.

The hourly charts are also suffering.  Note that 2580-2575 is still the death strike.

The ratio chart moved up today in sympathy for the huge oversold condition.  However, the move was not enough to even inspire a yawn.  Bears still in control.

The weekly chart is also in pain.  I have not updated it so that you can see what's happening.  Another green week is needed.

The Wilshire chart looks like total crap.  Nuff said.

The P&F chart is self explanatory.  Up against the wall!

I had only one trade today - went to 25% long QID on the opening failure.  I should have added more but was just too busy to pay a lot of attention.  The stop on the QID is at 2620.  Will flip to QLD at 2625 and start on puts at 2575.  This is a tough spot since my bottoming charts say "up soon" and follow the ball says more down.  This situation demands an option spread but I just don't have the time to nurse that.  So I'll set some alarms and conditional trades and let the autopilot take care of it.  From Thanksgiving to the end of the year is our "very busy" season so I will be on autopilot a lot.

Charts link below

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2071209

DAVID

Seriously: our portfolios are going down at light speed, which is your opinion on this?
Sell all the positions and wait for better times or keep waiting?

My portfolio lost 40% in two weeks, due also to a part of margin trading now I am closing. But the rest?
What the community here thinks?

thanks in advance for your replies,

Tera

Is this capitulation?? 

We'll see what happens after the fed minutes.

Fed minutes probably sealed the deal for a red close today

Just when I think the market has bottomed out it gets worse and worse and worse. This has indeed been the ugliest two weeks that my portfolio has endured. Despite David's optimism I can't imagine how the Main will come close to reaching the target 30% by years end.

I hope this is capitulation, if you go to the cnbc website, all 10 headlines are negative, not a single positive one.

if it is, it's also a great time to buy (if I had money...)

I don't know if that was capitulation or not.  (Sure felt like it...with all stocks...even good ones getting taken to the woodshed).

Quote from: Kublakhan on November 20, 2007, 02:15:31 PM
Fed minutes probably sealed the deal for a red close today

I admit that I know nothing.   

Quote from: capricho on November 20, 2007, 02:40:13 PM
I can't imagine how the Main will come close to reaching the target 30% by years end.

Well, I've been trading credit spreads since January, and my account is up 134% since then.  Come join us in the BetterTrades.com chat room. 

Quote from: Leaira on November 20, 2007, 04:21:06 PM
Well, I've been trading credit spreads since January, and my account is up 134% since then.  Come join us in the BetterTrades.com chat room. 

Yes credit spreads are an option approach which can be a great vehicle. Well done for your success, long may it continue. But rather than just advertise another website, I'd love to see you share some of your strategies in a more real time basis for people to see. In fact I see you have said you have a $200/$195 Bull put spread on FSLR, big volatility there. It would be great to follwo the outcome of that position. Good luck with it.

Leiara, I'm not smart enough to follow you on how the credit spreads work nor do I trust my ability to master something so arcane and complicated. I do agree it would be a good idea for you to start a separate thread on this board so we can learn.

The other two positions I have are:

FWLT 145/150 bear call spread
GD 85/80 bull put spread

I will get into more positions next week.  I'll let you know what I get into!   


Leaira