3SOF

I am not going to be as polite as AussieTrader. I think it is very unfair to David to advertise another website here. Also to imply option trading yields outstanding return without a word of HUGE risk is very misleading and irresponsible.

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 20, 2007, 05:29:20 PM

Quote from: Leaira on November 20, 2007, 04:21:06 PM
Well, I've been trading credit spreads since January, and my account is up 134% since then.  Come join us in the BetterTrades.com chat room. 

Yes credit spreads are an option approach which can be a great vehicle. Well done for your success, long may it continue. But rather than just advertise another website, I'd love to see you share some of your strategies in a more real time basis for people to see. In fact I see you have said you have a $200/$195 Bull put spread on FSLR, big volatility there. It would be great to follwo the outcome of that position. Good luck with it.

I agree with realcoolhead regarding both website mkting and options. Since we are looking for fairness for overselves all the time in the market it would be fair to David and 3SoF team that such marketing should not be done. Hope Leaira understands that. And though the main is hitting hard, David is still the best stockpicker I had known, may be Warren Buffet is the other.

Quote from: stocky on November 20, 2007, 09:34:15 PM
I agree with realcoolhead regarding both website mkting and options. Since we are looking for fairness for overselves all the time in the market it would be fair to David and 3SoF team that such marketing should not be done. Hope Leaira understands that. And though the main is hitting hard, David is still the best stockpicker I had known, may be Warren Buffet is the other.

I would not feel bad to see the moderators edit out the mention of that other website, especially given the circumstances of the post.  It is certianly within their rights to do so.

Jeez, give her a break. Although I can't speak for David I'm sure he's not afraid of a mention of another website by a star member who is just trying to pass along information. I didn't see any harm in it just as I don't see any harm in someone recommending Yahoo Finance, Barchart, Clearstation, StockTA, Google Finance or whatever to check up on stocks.

I remember David awarding Leaira some kind of award a while ago for her ability to pick stocks. Considering she's probably half the age of most members I give her kudos for her precociousness and her willingness to share her knowledge to dimwits like me.

I wanted to butt-in and say a few words.  Before I begin, I want you to know I've had a few beers tonight (trying to ease the pain )  The biggest problem we have here on 3 stocksonfire is that I believe most here are still short-term traders, I know I am myself, I have been trying to become a long-term investor and I admit it is hard.  David is right about everything he says regarding the fact that the long-term is the best way.  The problem is everyone here watches the markets everyday and therefore we react accordingly.  A long-term investor does not watch the market on a daily basis and most rely on their monthly statements to see the changes to their accounts.  An example is that my grandparents do better than me because they do nothing, at the end of the year their investments are higher than mine and yet I trade for a living (been doing it for 3 years).  What I'm trying to say is that people may get upset with the main's portfolio drop, but in reality these are investments for at least 3 years.  I bet if we all had the patience to wait until 3 years we would be up huge with David's picks.  So what do we do?  I'll be the first to admit, I don't know what to do, I'm trying to get my account big enough so that I can have a long term portfolio like David's and a trading account.  Right now I just trade.  I just wonder how many others here have the same problem.  I know that we can all do better if David went back to the short-term trading style like he had when he started this site and have a long -term account.  I fully understand why he doesn't since it is so stressful.  Anyways what I'm trying to say is if this is truly a long-term site then maybe we shouldn't really be watching it tick by tick.  My X-mas wish is for us to have this long-term site and a short-term trader portfolio utilizing David's talent.  I'll stop now....Good Night folks,  and David, keep up the good work, you are still the best I have ever seen or will ever see.

I suppose if these are indeed long term picks then there would be no reason for daily updates nor any reason to dump etlt, icoc, and nga, nor any reason for David to monitor and to contribute to the board on a daily basis. We would all simply tuck away the recommended picks in a time capsule and come back in three years and pop the champagne.

I don't think it's that simple nor do I truly think these are necessarily long positions to be bought and forgotten about. All of these picks have a relatively high beta and with that risk comes an inherent desire-or prudence-to track them like the wild children they are.

I'm of two minds about the prospects of the portfolio gaining strength now. On the one hand I can see the logic in David's wait and see approach, but on the other hand I have a worried sense that we're relying on nothing more than blind faith to make things turn around. Just last week some members were talking of a bottoming and a buying opportunity and yet things have just gotten much worse for the portfolio since.

 
 


For Now, Go Cautiously,
And Buy Nasdaq at 2575
By JAMES B. STEWART
November 21, 2007; Page D3

After Monday's triple-digit plunge below 13000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearing its August lows, with financial stocks and home builders again leading the way down. But here the similarity between then and now ends.

In August, there was a credit panic followed by an interest-rate cut and inflation fears that drove oil, gold and other commodities to record levels. Now, just three months later, inflation has given way to a new fear: recession. A brief rally yesterday morning led the average above 13000, but Freddie Mac's poor earnings and concerns about the depth of the credit crunch sent it down again by the afternoon. The average closed just above 13000.

In the intervening months, I've read all sorts of reassuring reports on the health of the financial system, the prospects for technology spending and the vitality of the American consumer. They all had just one caveat: All bets are off if there is a recession.

Recession fears appear to have been the driving force in the market's recent turmoil. Among the hardest hit have been economy-sensitive sectors that were supposed to benefit from lower interest rates, a weak dollar and stronger inflation -- the forces driving the market back in August.

Over the past week (through Monday), some of the weakest sectors have been construction and farm machinery (-2.32%), gold (-2.59%), chemicals (-3.91%), paper and packaging (-5.96%), airlines (-6.2%), metals and mining (-6.55%), autos (-9.95%) and trucking (-11.66%). Until this week, many were among the year's best-performing areas, and had rebounded strongly after August's slump.

Among these tidings of bad cheer, the consumer discretionary sector was also hard hit as the holiday shopping season got under way. Apparel was down 4.03%, general merchandise down 5.01% and department stores dropped 6.1%. Everyone seems to be ratcheting down their expectations for the season, with Thanksgiving discounts already proliferating.

So will there or won't there be a recession?

You already have the answer to that: No one knows. Once we do, the opportunities to make money from the present uncertainty will have vanished.

For the record, no one -- at least no one in a position of responsibility and authority -- is using the "R" word. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been warning of an economic slowdown in the U.S., but measures of global growth remain strong. At the same time, the latest inflation readings have remained tame, even with a weak dollar. Little more than a month ago, investors were giddy with hopes for a soft landing, driving market averages to new highs. What, really, has changed?

My own sense is that investors' recent mood swings have been overdone at the extremes of both optimism and pessimism, and that caution remains the appropriate stance. I'm not changing my own approach, which remains focused on stocks of companies that benefit from global growth, a weak dollar and strong commodities prices. I'm not rushing into defensive areas. I'm still avoiding the financial sector, which continues to spew forth unwelcome surprises.

Meanwhile, for those of you recalibrating your buy and sell thresholds in line with the Common Sense system, a 10% decline from the Nasdaq high of 2860 reached on Halloween is 2575, which is my new buying target. That's when the holiday shopping season will really begin (at least for stocks), so it's not too soon to be preparing your list.

Both mbaugh and capricho applauds. I do agree that most of us are short term trader and I would also count myself into it. And by short term I certainly dont mean day trader but someone with the horizon of at the most a month to a year. It would be a good idea to have another portfolio, certainly not like the fire, where you have 33.3% in one stock. May be 6.66% but for swing trading or relatively shorter horizon then the current 3 year. Putting up a poll in this regard wont be a bad idea.

Quote from: capricho on November 20, 2007, 11:24:40 PM
Jeez, give her a break. Although I can't speak for David I'm sure he's not afraid of a mention of another website by a star member who is just trying to pass along information. I didn't see any harm in it just as I don't see any harm in someone recommending Yahoo Finance, Barchart, Clearstation, StockTA, Google Finance or whatever to check up on stocks.

I remember David awarding Leaira some kind of award a while ago for her ability to pick stocks. Considering she's probably half the age of most members I give her kudos for her precociousness and her willingness to share her knowledge to dimwits like me.

The problem is that in this case, prior to her showing up and claiming a 134% return year to date a few days ago in the midst of 3SOF suffering was that her last posts were on August 21st, also conveniently talking about what 3SOF should be doing in options at a time when it was down fairly hard.  So where was the willingness to share for 3 months when 3SOF was doing just fine? 

I do recall what you are talking about early on and I found her posts interesting in the past, but getting them recently in this way recently timed when the Main Portfolio is down together with mentions of amazing gains and a mention of another website comes off as spammy, otherwise why not share more consistently and at less "kick em while they are down" times?  David has his record public for all of us to see on a daily basis, and then people come in and say oh, BTW, up 134% YTD, come see us in this site and trust that.  Maybe they are telling the truth and maybe they arent, but its still not fair.

I suppose it may be inadvertent and not intentional and if she stays around to teach in a new thread and consistently contributes and we can guage how this credit spread trading works over time, then we can all feel it was indeed inadvertent.   In the meantime, I am still saying that 3SOF moderators would be entirely within their rights both as moderators and to protect their board and even their members from possible spam to remove the mention of the other website given this context.

I come from the belief that removing a comment because it mentions another website, despite its context, shows that the moderator must feel somehow threatened by it. One of the qualities David possesses is a very high degree of confidence as well as a rather devoted but small base of followers who will likely not abandon 3SOF for that other site.

I know what you're saying about the timing of her posts and I can see how it can be construed as being somewhat immature and self serving but it didn't really bother me. I was actually more impressed by her ability to make sense of something that is all greek to me as I happen to lack the numerical intelligence to understand any of it.

Capricho, have you ever owned your own business? I'm guessing not. How would you feel if someone walked into your store and started telling customers about another place down the way that is better? Rubbish.

Quote from: capricho on November 21, 2007, 11:18:28 AM
I come from the belief that removing a comment because it mentions another website, despite its context, shows that the moderator must feel somehow threatened by it. One of the qualities David possesses is a very high degree of confidence as well as a rather devoted but small base of followers who will likely not abandon 3SOF for that other site.

I know what you're saying about the timing of her posts and I can see how it can be construed as being somewhat immature and self serving but it didn't really bother me. I was actually more impressed by her ability to make sense of something that is all greek to me as I happen to lack the numerical intelligence to understand any of it.

I am sure if you put your mind to it for long enough you can understand options better.  I agree that probably the moderators here wont remove the reference, but if they did I wouldnt question their confidence.  As realcoolhead mentioned, there is HUGE risk in options, and so if they remove the site they are in a way protecting members here who might be looking for that quick way to recap losses, only to find worse losses in options.  I mean, for the most part here we cannot lose more than we have invested following David (unless we use margin but he doesnt reccommend that anyway), but with certain options strategies you can easily lose more than you actually have, and fast too.

Further, there is the member experience.  When too many mentions of other websites are allowed, it can lead to an avalanche effect, i.e. where one spammer gets away with spamming, then others start.  We dont see this too much here in the members only area because it would cost too much to spam in general, but still, it can happen.  A spammer could spend $50 to get in for a month, continually promote other sites, and get their money's worth that way, plus a few good stock picks in the meantime. 

I guess we will all have differing viewpoints on what should be done, but at the end of the day, 3SOF is well within its rights to edit that post if they want to.  I own a website with a high traffic forum and I would have edited a post like that given the context and risk, but that is just me lol.

ygtradr, yes I am a business owner and in fact I have often told prospective clients to check out the competition if they want and in fact most do. I have no problem in that because I provide a reputable, quality service that is considered superior to that provided by most of my competitors.

Now I could be wrong but I really don't think David will be threatened by the mentioning of another website. Did Leaira's post seem spammy? Maybe. Was it a big deal? No.

Well I also own my own business and I would never tolerate someone walking into my store and advertising the compeition. I doubt most other business owners would either.

The last time I checked 3SOF is not a store and it does not sell products. It's a message board in which members share ideas and information. And I don't recall Leaira saying that the other website was 'better' than 3SOF.