3SOF

Man..I'm really taking it on the chin in this one.  This is the worst I've done in a stock in some time.  I suppose you haven't lost until you've sold.  But I'm down a good 25% plus..ouch! 

I still think SOLF is a tremendous value.  With earnings coming up, I'm hoping Solarfun can follow through and give wall street some numbers to rally around.

Yes...the whole solar sector is down big today.

SOLF has certainly been a dud, but this looks like great news to me.  Not big news, but HP is a nice high quality company to be associated that is firing on all cylinders. 

Also, earnings come out Thursday.  I expect them to be great, especially considering they just signed a contract with Hoku for $306 million worth of polysilicon over the next 8 years.  Polysilicon is always in high demand so it is nice to secure a supply.  The stock was down a bit on this news but I think it is decent news.

Also, I'm a bit concerned about the $75 million offering but am choosing to take it as good news.  A business needs capital to grow..  We'll know everything Thursday.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=ACBJ&date=20071127&id=7862918

SunPower Corp. is partnering with Hewlett-Packard Co. to make the company and its employees more green.

San Jose-based SunPower will install a 1-megawatt solar electric power system on HP's printer manufacturing facility in San Diego in July 2008 and discount solar systems to HP employees starting later this year.

HP will buy electricity generated by the solar system from SunPower at a rate lower than retail, so HP will have no upfront cost, according to SunPower. The system will offset more than 1 million pounds of carbon dioxide per year.

Later this year, HP will start a program for its U.S.-based employees to get discounts on SunPower solar power systems for their homes.

SunPower manufactures high-efficiency solar cells, solar panels and solar systems for residential, commercial and utility-scale power plant customers.

Umm...oops.      I was thinking SunPower was Solarfun, awfully ignorant.

Anyway, SOLF had a nice day today and I'm anxiously awaiting earnings tomorrow. 

Heres the chart:

Nice earnings bjc...I have to admit I was a little nervous after the $75 million stock offering earlier this week.

revenues of 100 million
earnings of .17 way above consensus of .03

Guiding higher for year with revenues of $280-300 million.

I think SOLF could see $20 today.  Certainly upper teens.

These earnings are a total blowout. 

The shorts can't play with SOLF anymore.  I hope they're shorting today...

Fundamental investors will come in now.  This is a highly growing company trading at a completely reasonable valuation.  I was expecting ~100 million revenue, but the $0.17 EPS completely blew me away.  Anything over $0.10 was a blowout...I would've been happy with $0.07.  I won't be surprised if SOLF trades in the 20s by Christmas.  $30 seems like a fair enough target. 

SOLF is +3.66 to 15.27, a 31% move. 


Here is a copy and paste:

Solarfun Lifts 2007 Revenue Outlook
Thursday November 29, 10:46 am ET
Solarfun Raises Full-Year Revenue Outlook After Reporting 3rd-Qtr Profit Gains; Shares Spike

NEW YORK (AP) -- Solarfun Power Holdings Co.'s shares surged Thursday after the company raised its full-year revenue outlook and reported strong gains in third-quarter profit.

The stock rose $3.47, or 29.9 percent, to $15.08 in morning trading. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $8.22 to $17.69.

ADVERTISEMENT
The solar-panel maker now expects revenue of $280 million to $300 million in 2007, compared with an earlier forecast of $250 million to $270 million. The new forecast represents an increase of 230 percent to 250 percent over 2006 revenue.

The company also said its profit nearly tripled in the third quarter on increased production and strong demand.

Solarfun expects shipments at the high end of its previous outlook of 70 megawatts to 80 megawatts of annual generating capacity. That represents an increase 210 percent to 254 percent over last year.

Solarfun has already reached its production capacity target of 240 megawatts worth of annual generating capacity by the end of 2007.

A one-megawatt plant running continuously at full capacity can power 778 households each year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Solar technology has lower capacity since its power generation is constrained by the availability of the sun.

"Additionally, our supply situation is improving," Chairman and Chief Executive Yonghua Lu said in a statement. "We believe we have secured 100 percent of our needs in 2007 and a significant portion of our anticipated needs in 2008, and pricing through the remainder of this year and well into next looks to be quite strong."



This report is too good to be true.  I've been pretty busy with school all day so I haven't been able to focus on any of this yet, but wow.  No wonder the stock was up 30% today.  It could easily be justified in rising another 30% tomorrow before a correction.

bjc...what do you think of the $75 million offering from earlier this week??  Will it have dilutive effects...if so how much??  It concerns me a little

SSTR had an obsure offering before earnings in September.  Like SOLF...SSTR had stellar earning and a price pop after earnings announcement...but really got taken to the woodshed in the months to follow.

It may not be the same and mean nothing...but it is something to think about and watch.

By the way the 15.19 closing was a crappy print at the end.  It was trading around 15.46 or 15.47 at the close.

I noticed the same thing. 

It had me slightly concerned, but I'm convinced it is solely to fuel growth.  And I am all about fueling growth.  I did a little elementary math FA in my head.  If it is 10% dilution..oh well.  The earnings today added $75 mil a hundred fold as far as I'm concerned.

$0.17 x 4 = ~ $0.70

$0.70 x 22 = $15.40

This is basically exactly where we are today.  But we are going to make far more than $0.17 in each of the next few quarters and a rapid growth stock like this deserves a much higher multiple.  This $0.17 is truly impressive, and I'm convinced Wall Street will continue to be impressed by the numbers and the outlook in the days to come. 

If the number didn't blow me away so much, I'd probably also be worried about the $75 offering.  If it continues to happen, and they don't tell us why, then I'd be concerned.  But 10% just really isn't THAT dilutive when you consider this is a high growth company.  They need capital to expand.  If anything, this is positive news as far as I'm concerned at this point.  Dilute me 10% and build something that will pay off big in the future...

EDIT: modified the wrong one.  trying to add a chart to most recent (12/3) post

Looks to me like SOLF is preparing to make an assault on its all time high of 17.69.   This is a very bullish day for this cheap solar energy stock.

Lets see if we can hold some of these gains if the market backs off...

Very bullish...chart taking out the black candle from Friday and just now took put in an all time new high...up to 17.94.

Is this short covering?  Seems there is no one left to sell and everybody wants in. 

Looks like others are starting to see the value we saw ksl.   

Up to 18.55 from just over 18 when I started typing this post.

 

I've never had a holding perform like this.  When will people start taking some off the table?  $20?  I'm tempted to, but I want to hold for the real gains over the long term.  I have to be convinced $20 might be the first form of resistance, but this seems to be a major short squeeze.

Quote from: bjc on December 03, 2007, 12:16:50 PM


I've never had a holding perform like this.  When will people start taking some off the table?  $20?  I'm tempted to, but I want to hold for the real gains over the long term.  I have to be convinced $20 might be the first form of resistance, but this seems to be a major short squeeze.

It looks like SOLF will finish near the HOD...Nice intra-day action forming a little cup with record volume..

But one of these days SOLF has to have a pull-back

Quote from: kslifka on December 03, 2007, 02:54:10 PM

But one of these days SOLF has to have a pull-back

I agree.  But that seems to be what everyone is thinking, and each of these days the shorts have to cover, then they establish new shorts, only to have to cover at a higher level.  We probably have a whole new batch who could fuel another run tomorrow.  This stock isn't even approaching fair value, let alone overvalued.

So of course I will expect some consolidation, but who knows?  We are currently trading over $20 and the volume will surpass that of the day of the ER.  I wouldn't be surprised if shorts take it down toward the end of the day.  It doesn't matter.  I wait for at least $30 and re-evaluate then.