3SOF

O.K.  Out of SOLF for now.  Hyperbolic move...at the end of the day...tells me to sell. 

But you never know...It may go higher...espcially after hours.

I will look to re-enter...on a good pullback.


I am putting these funds into CSIQ...for its next run.

I don't blame you.

If I were more trader-oriented, and less investor-oriented, I would do the same thing.  But I just can't bring myself to sell when I believe there is so much more room on the upside.

I joined you in CSIQ this morning.  Check out the chart I attached to the CSIQ thread.  Or I'll add it right here.. 

I made CSIQ my second largest holding behind VIP until SOLF surpassed both today.  I may need to trim some before the close...

Quote from: bjc on December 03, 2007, 03:47:05 PM
I don't blame you.

If I were more trader-oriented, and less investor-oriented, I would do the same thing.  But I just can't bring myself to sell when I believe there is so much more room on the upside.

I joined you in CSIQ this morning.  Check out the chart I attached to the CSIQ thread.  Or I'll add it right here.. 

I made CSIQ my second largest holding behind VIP until SOLF surpassed both today.  I may need to trim some before the close...

I had orginally sold my CSIQ a couple of weeks ago pre-market above $18.  The market was terrible back then...and I was looking to take profits anywhere I could.   Everything was selling on the news then.

I was looking to re-enter...then they had their news last week which I new would bring CSIQ down.   

As long as the market doesn't tank and solar stocks hang in there...I think CSIQ will be the next to pop this week.   It's still holding above the 9ema with high volume over the past few weeks.

Yes, I really like the way CSIQ is riding the 13 ema up.

Here is the chart i am talking about, I want someone to look at it because it shows the vast undervaluation of SOLF and CSIQ compared to TSL.  I will add others to this mix like JASO.

        mkt cap      revs      PPS      EPS      Total MWs
SOLF   $784m      $100.6m          $16.35          $0.17      27.3
TSL    $1070m       $82.6m       $42.85      $0.28        21.2   
CSIQ   $429m      $97.4m      $15.72      $0.02      35 MW expected in Q4

This is using Closing information from last Friday.  Attachment has this with an additional little writeup estimating some CSIQ's 08 EPS using round numbers to find an estimate that is somewhat ballpark.  Nothing exact or scientific.


Or here is the text . .
"So CSIQ is definitely WAY undervalued.  Expect to ship 200-220 MW in 08.  Expect 35 MW in Q4 to translate to ~$0.30

EPS, so 200 MW = 2 bucks? 

This math may be off due to the fact $0.5m in revenue may not directly translate to $0.02 EPS per share.  I extrapolated this to figure the $8M they expect in net income next quarter will translate to approximately $0.30 Q4 EPS. 

And there is the dilutive offering, but it is not a bad thing, these companies need capital to grow and I don't mind

it that they don't want to over-lever themselves with debt.  But this will dilute earnings a bit.  But the numbers we are talking about are so massive that a 10 or 20% dilution is basically a non issue."

Damn...got out too early.

Think I'm taking half off here..if I didn't I think I'd just be too greedy.  I expect it to fall back but if she continues higher, I want to have a little piece of the action. 

I woke up 1 hour before market open and saw solar names trading lower pre market.  What a surprise upon my wake up to see this!  CSIQ also having an impressive day, breakout is near.

BJC...did you see this news on SOLF

Good Energies to raise stake in China's Solarfun Power
Tue Dec 4, 2007 10:37am EST

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  Dec 4 (Reuters) - Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (SOLF.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said Good Energies agreed to purchase about 66.7 million ordinary shares and 281,011 American Depository Shares from current shareholders, an investment that would raise Good Energies' stake in the company to about 34.7 percent from 6.3 percent.
  
  The transaction includes 50 percent of the shares held by the company's Chairman and Chief Executive Yonghua Lu, who will retain a 16.1 percent stake in Solarfun immediately after the completion of the deal, Solarfun said in a statement.
  
  Good Energies is an investor in the renewable energy and energy efficiency industry. (Reporting by Shikhar Balwani in Bangalore; Editing by Deepak Kannan)
  

Yes, I don't really know what to make of it.  I think it is good news, but I don't really know how good.

Not 30% good.  But it is certainly helping the company reach a fairer value.  SOLF appears to possibly be winding up for a try at the highs.  And CSIQ very high volume, hopefully a breakout is in the works.

SOLF is still rocking and rolling.  You would think this has to stop somewhere for a major correction.  I took 1/5 my holding off at 27 before I left for class earlier.  I think I should take some more off but I just can't bring myself to!  Look at the volume today, it dwarfs even the massive volume of the past 3 sessions.  Isn't it typical for the last day of a run to be accompanied with massive volume?

I think tomorrow is the day CSIQ really takes off like a rocket.

Edit:  Sold another 1/5 in the closing minutes of the day.  So I hold 3/5ths my original position and plan to hold for a while unless we get into the mid 30s tomorrow.  Then I probably take profit and run with it. 

SOLF is up another $1.60 AH after closing fairly weak at 26.25. 

Solar Sees Increased Attention
on Energy Bill
Tuesday's session saw continued talk of Fed rate cuts, financials
seeing increased selling pressure, speculation regarding
gaming consolidation, and solar names on the rise again. This
alternate energy sector saw a barrage of news from many located
in the China market which spilled over into a sympathy
related rally for the whole space.
Solarfun Power Holding Company Limited (SOLF) began the rally when shares gained over 39%
following news that the Company had reached an agreement with Good Energies Inc., a renewable
energy investor, to sell some 66.7 million ordinary shares and 281,011 American Depository
Shares to the investor. Included in the investment were almost 50% of the shares held by
SOLF's chairman and CEO, Yonghua Lu. It was noted that Lu would retain a 16.1% stake in the
Company. The deal effectively raises Good Energies' holdings to 34.7% from only 6.3% of the
Company before the deal. It also will allow Good Energies to have additional control of the board
of directors.
The deal left some investors worrying about the CEO's faith in the Company. There aren't many
instances of CEO's liquidating 50% of their holdings. Even rarer was the security gaining over
40%.
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) also was in on the action as speculation circulated of a potential
partnership circulated the floors. The Company has been highlighted a few times with their growing
top line and more recently by raising $75 million in a 144A private placement. Shares gained
some 17% on the day with over 5 million shares traded.
LDK Solar Co Ltd (LDK) shares saw a 31% increase on Tuesday. The Company had become
embattled in an inventory disagreement with a former employee. Shares had seen their price fall
from highs of over $75 in late September to lows in the $26 area in late November. On November
15th the Company announced guidance for sales of $165 to $170 million. Earnings were
expected to be between 37c and 41c.
No official news had been reported over the past few days but a story circulated that noted the
Company had raised some $700 million in debt and had retained all of their customers throughout
the inventory discrepancy. The Company earlier had noted that the investigation into inventories
reporting had continued. They were expected to announce their findings in early December. With
that on the horizon, the shares could see additional attention.
Also contributing to the heightened attention to the sector was the proposed energy bill. The
legislation was seen as a negative catalyst last month as news that the Democrats were proposing
a stripping out of alternative energy tax cuts to gain favor of the Republicans to override any
presidential veto. With the bill possibly being on the agenda in the coming days, investors would
certainly be wise to watch many in the solar area.

Sold another 1/5 in low 31s.  May look to take profit on the rest later in the day, I don't want to be in when this baby turns the other direction...

Sold the remainder of my shares at 28.06.  I saw it crack under 28 and hit market sell and by the time I sold it was back over 28.  It looks like its getting a bounce here, but I'll take my money and run.  Avg sell price 28.18.  This is probably the best trade of my life.

I'll look to reenter if SOLF collapses.  There is still  great fundamental story here, but I dont think I have the stomach for the profit taking that will occur.

Congrats BJC...nice profit

SOLF should come down for a little while now.

Hoping to get my SOLF back in low 20s.  Maybe even upper teens if we're really lucky.  I guess it could just go straight up, in which case I would not buy and would wait for next correction.

Also, I sold 1/3 of my CSIQ at 18.40 up a bit less than 20% to protect some profit.  I want to get these shares back, so I wouldn't mind a small pullback in CSIQ.  But it could be off to the races.

For those of you following SOLF, what are your thoughts on today's near-Doji?