3SOF

On Thursday SOLF beat analysts' estimates by announcing income of 17 cents (which beat by 14 cents) and revenue of 100 million. The company raised full year 2007 outlook to 280-300 million. Seems very interesting. On tear for last few days. I think David can dig more.

SOLF today closed @ 20.6

Quote from: stocky on December 03, 2007, 05:44:45 PM
On Thursday SOLF beat analysts' estimates by announcing income of 17 cents (which beat by 14 cents) and revenue of 100 million. The company raised full year 2007 outlook to 280-300 million. Seems very interesting. On tear for last few days. I think David can dig more.

SOLF today closed @ 20.6

Add CSIQ...strong earnings in same solar sector...in same country.

I think for short term you need to watch Crude price and how things are going in the Solar Leaders including FSLR, SPWR and STP. It would be interesting to see David's take on SOLF fundamentals.

SOLF is gangsta for today. Based on similar increase in stake you may see ASTI doubling from yesterdays close of 17.75. Hope both help me win Strategy Lab Open.

Gee, what a jump, how did I miss this one?

3rd quarter results were pretty impressive and the catalyst for the move:

• Solarfun Reports Third Quarter 2007 Results
Business Wire (Thu, Nov 29)

$0.17 EPS per ADS. Annualized is $0.68. With the stock currently at $27, the p/e is 39.7. Using the same method JASO's is 30 and TSL's is 42.

At first sight I would say SOLF's positive earnings surprise is priced in now. But I would let the profits run, I guess. Good luck stocky

(I'll take a more in depth look at SOLF in the near future)

You need to check out the non premium board...ksl has been all over this...weeks before ER!

And as he suggests, it'd be highly beneficial to check out CSIQ.  Same revenues as SOLF but 1/2 the market cap.  SOLF slightly more efficient.  CSIQ has as much or more capacity to produce PV cells than SOLF. 

Long both stocks, took 2/5ths off SOLF today in 26.5 to 27 range.  Look to sell a spike tomorrow or hold / buy a dip.  Barring major meltdown in solar stocks, CSIQ should have a major rally tomorrow. Chart is magnificent!!!

Solar Sees Increased Attention
on Energy Bill
Tuesday's session saw continued talk of Fed rate cuts, financials
seeing increased selling pressure, speculation regarding
gaming consolidation, and solar names on the rise again. This
alternate energy sector saw a barrage of news from many located
in the China market which spilled over into a sympathy
related rally for the whole space.
Solarfun Power Holding Company Limited (SOLF) began the rally when shares gained over 39%
following news that the Company had reached an agreement with Good Energies Inc., a renewable
energy investor, to sell some 66.7 million ordinary shares and 281,011 American Depository
Shares to the investor. Included in the investment were almost 50% of the shares held by
SOLF's chairman and CEO, Yonghua Lu. It was noted that Lu would retain a 16.1% stake in the
Company. The deal effectively raises Good Energies' holdings to 34.7% from only 6.3% of the
Company before the deal. It also will allow Good Energies to have additional control of the board
of directors.
The deal left some investors worrying about the CEO's faith in the Company. There aren't many
instances of CEO's liquidating 50% of their holdings. Even rarer was the security gaining over
40%.
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) also was in on the action as speculation circulated of a potential
partnership circulated the floors. The Company has been highlighted a few times with their growing
top line and more recently by raising $75 million in a 144A private placement. Shares gained
some 17% on the day with over 5 million shares traded.
LDK Solar Co Ltd (LDK) shares saw a 31% increase on Tuesday. The Company had become
embattled in an inventory disagreement with a former employee. Shares had seen their price fall
from highs of over $75 in late September to lows in the $26 area in late November. On November
15th the Company announced guidance for sales of $165 to $170 million. Earnings were
expected to be between 37c and 41c.
No official news had been reported over the past few days but a story circulated that noted the
Company had raised some $700 million in debt and had retained all of their customers throughout
the inventory discrepancy. The Company earlier had noted that the investigation into inventories
reporting had continued. They were expected to announce their findings in early December. With
that on the horizon, the shares could see additional attention.
Also contributing to the heightened attention to the sector was the proposed energy bill. The
legislation was seen as a negative catalyst last month as news that the Democrats were proposing
a stripping out of alternative energy tax cuts to gain favor of the Republicans to override any
presidential veto. With the bill possibly being on the agenda in the coming days, investors would
certainly be wise to watch many in the solar area.

any suggestion for an reentry point?

Upper teens?  I think it should be pretty volatile for a little while and may take some time to consolidate gains.  I would like it if it settled right around 20 for a few days...

I got this new program that its like an indicator for when money is flowing into a stock or out of a stock and based on this X2 program its indicating that money is flowing into this stock.
so for the long term it looks good.

from seeking alpha:

Solarfun Finally Performs and Has Clear Path to 2008 Projections
posted on: December 06, 2007 | about stocks: STP / SOLF   
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The two companies in the solar space I have the most personal investment experience with are Suntech Power (STP) and Solarfun Power (SOLF). Suntech Power is an established Chinese leader, and up until last week, Solarfun Power has been a wayward second tier player with untapped potential. After a series of fumbling quarters, the company finally came through and "investors" (I use that word lightly) rewarded it with a >100% return in a week.
While the quarter was good I believe Solarfun Power really benefited from a dearth of other 'speculative' sectors that hot money chases (dry bulk, Chinese small cap, etc) working the day it reported - so seemingly all the hot money went into one stock (sector). So the move is a bit overdone relative to what exactly it reported - again the results were good but I've seen better results in other names, not move those stocks nearly as much.

After spiking to over $30 yesterday, the stock has tumbled to $22s range today, so I purchased the fund's first stake in this name. This stake is larger than I what usually begin a position with simply because I have a long (and storied) history with this stock. Now with this said, there are a lot of speculators who are sitting in the stock so they still could be a near term issue as their impatience could cause more selling pressure; the stock could fall farther from here. However, based on the ability finally to execute a quarter to Wall Street's expectations and a host of other positives that this company always "had" (but were clouded due to its lack of execution) I am willing to include into the fund.

On the negative side (or positive depending on how you look at it) - Solarfun Power CEO sold half his stake to an outside investor - on the positive end this is a solid investor well versed in the alternative energy area, but on the negative you don't want to see insiders giving up such a large stake this early in the life cycle of a company. Hence I found this to be negative. Further, there is a lot of management turnover in this company - another negative. However I do believe the 'rising tide lifts all boats' situation will help Solarfun and until more info is presented at LDK Solar (LDK) i.e. audit/earnings and a better technical picture arises for Trina Solar (TSL), the choices are relatively limited. Some of the other players, I don't want to touch with your 10 foot pole.

Buying SolarfunLDK Solar (LDK) ahead of audit results/earnings, (you can game the system and believe the audit will work out) no issues and away we go to $60, but just as easily you could be down 25% within a few minutes. Hence I'd rather pay up for merchandise once I get more information (I hold a small stake of LDK Solar until more info is afforded to me). Now that Solarfun has (finally) executed to Street expectations, and has a clearer path to projections for 2008 - it should be looked at favorably the rest of the quarter.

It does lag its peers with only a 16% gross margin, but this should improve with time as well, and is far superior to some other second tiers such as Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and China Sunergy (CSUN). Those might hold more upside potential as speculators love these latter stocks, but Solarfun has at this time proven to be better operationally. So again, any of these companies mentioned in the preceding paragraph hold much more operational risk than a company such as Suntech Power (STP) but with risk comes some additional return potential.

Yesterday, most of the solar sector was down - not sure why; it could be partly due to huge runs needing to be digested or people hand wringing over U.S. legislation for alternative energy initiatives - an issue that is way overblown one way or the other in the near term. While it might help sentiment, it means very little for most of these companies who have little to no U.S. exposure (save Sunpower (SPWR)). But this is horde mentality and if the bill passes all these companies (many of which have zero U.S. exposure) should be worth 30% more, or vice versa.

This is a bill, mind you, that needs to get through the Senate and an oil man sitting in the Oval Office. Hence the day-to-day hand wringing is pointless from this viewpoint. I did take the opportunity to add more to Suntech Power as well here in the $73s range; I am hoping for a pullback to $70 to add more. As for Solarfun Power, I started with a 900 share position or roughly a 1.7% position or $20.5K. If fortunate enough to see a pullback to upper (or mid teens), I would add in much larger scale.

I do expect to see some panicked speculators to be frightened out of their shares in this name (soon), and this could provide an even better buying opportunity. But if not, we have some skin in the game and a positive result from LDK Solar (LDK) could reignite this sector and vault a company like Solarfun.

Disclosure: Long Suntech Power, Solarfun Power, LDK Solar in fund; long Suntech Power, Solarfun Power in personal account

Quote from: la-onda on December 06, 2007, 02:44:42 AM
any suggestion for an reentry point?

volume remains high on SOLF...many took their profits by now...including me.  If SOLF is to continue it's on fire trend...this should put in a white Candle Friday.  Could be a double bottom at $21.65.  However the 50% retracement is at $20.80.   If it bounces off either of those levels to close with a nice white candle.  SOLF should trade higher.  Watch volume closely.

Well SOLF put in a nice white candle today.  Volume remains strong...still on fire

Yes, SOLF withstood the inevitable correction very well.  I'm sure solars will correct again, but pretty much everything broke out today...so there may be no looking back. 

I'll probably look to try to get some of my shares of this undervalued solar stock back.

ksl..you still in CSIQ?  We are clear for a huge move!  No resistance...best fundamentals in the industry I think.  If they can prove they can convert large revs to EPS.

Quote from: bjc on December 07, 2007, 05:44:00 PM
Yes, SOLF withstood the inevitable correction very well.  I'm sure solars will correct again, but pretty much everything broke out today...so there may be no looking back. 

I'll probably look to try to get some of my shares of this undervalued solar stock back.

ksl..you still in CSIQ?  We are clear for a huge move!  No resistance...best fundamentals in the industry I think.  If they can prove they can convert large revs to EPS.

Yes...still in CSIQ...

Nice buying after hours too.