3SOF

Here's a link dated Jan. 11, EXM buys QMAR for $27 per share.

http://www.marine-marketing.gr/newsclip.php?file=200802.txt#0


scroll down a few paragraphs to find the news.

I wonder if this will start a consoldation of the shipping companies?

Quote from: stocky on January 12, 2008, 02:07:13 PM
'Reverse to the mean'?  David can you clear please.

'Revert to Mean' would be the correct 'English' that David is referring to. A pullback in price (or reversion) to a trading area or range which you could classify as the stock's mean trading range.

That 'mean trading range' depends on your view or trading timeframe, short, medium, long. As David is looking long term then he would be referring to a reversion back to the long term trading mean.

As a point of interest on ef the approaches I have is  a leveraged short term trading system which works on short term mean reversion. It works best in volatile trading periods where stocks that have been performing well pullback over a set number of days (away from a short term mean) upon which you buy with the intention of selling when price reverts back to that same short term mean. There is an old example of that type of system in the trading systems thread.

Quote from: tokyopua on January 10, 2008, 01:01:51 PM
I joined in here, the market looks ready to do some rallying, and TBSI should be at a technical support level here, so hopefully its hit bottom!  I had told myself I didnt want to buy anything just yet, but TBSI looked too compelling here.

You have an uncanny sense of timing Tokyopua, so I hope you're also right on TBSI

QuoteOn a side note, what really sucks is a POS stock like RIGL , a company without any revenues keeps going up and the good solid companies such as TBSI are being beat to death.

Yes mbaugh, the market spends most of the time telling us that the right is wrong and the wrong is right.

QuoteAnyways, I'm holding!

In some other thread you wrote that you trade for a living. I wonder if investing for the long term is the right strategy for yourself mbaugh. If you make 30% a year you'll be a very rich man by the time you retire, but that won't pay your daily bread now.

Perhaps someday we'll chat again on these issues, good luck

Quote from: stocky on January 12, 2008, 02:07:13 PM
'Reverse to the mean'?  David can you clear please.

Fortunately AussieTrader already explained, I spent the weekend wondering if you used a similar expression in America. In other words, what I meant to say was that TBSI was just back to its long term ascending trend.

Quote from: mbaugh on January 14, 2008, 12:04:06 AM
Here's a link dated Jan. 11, EXM buys QMAR for $27 per share.

http://www.marine-marketing.gr/newsclip.php?file=200802.txt#0

scroll down a few paragraphs to find the news.

I wonder if this will start a consolidation of the shipping companies?

Ahhh, this explains why QMAR had relative strength versus the rest of the shipping industry. Mystery solved.

Consolidation in the industry would be very welcome.

I believe that in the current environment the shipping industry is a growth industry, not cyclical, and therefore the extremely low valuations mean " deep discount" instead of meaning "trouble ahead". I have this belief because I see the emergence of economic powerhouses now participating in World trade like never before and communications between countries rising faster than anyone can build ships.

I'll continue holding TBSI.

Oops, 'Revert to the mean' is the correct one, I was just thinking of 'Reverse Sweep' in Cricket at that time . I really follow British English but yes here in US they have twisted so many terms that I am now making few of my own. Thanks Aussie for the explanation.

Here's a good article that support's David theory on the shipping sector.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/60101-drybulk-fundamentals-remain-healthy

have you listened to the webcast DAvid?

Analyst Panel Discussion on the Dry Bulk Sector
Tuesday , January 15, 2008 09:00ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200707/352896_CapitalLink.jpg

NEW YORK, NY -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 01/15/08 -- Shipping Analysts from

--  Bear Stearns (Scott Burk),
--  Jefferies & Company (Douglas Mavrinac),
--  JPMorgan Securities (Jonathan Chappell) and
--  Lazard Capital Markets (Urs Dur)
   

will participate in a Virtual Analyst Panel Discussion on the dry bulk shipping sector today, on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 2:00 pm.

The Analyst Forum is organized by Capital Link, a New York based Investor Relations and Financial Communications firm focusing on shipping.

LIVE AUDIO WEBCAST

Access to the Analyst Forum is only through a live audio webcast accessible directly at www.CapitalLinkWebcasts.com, where it will remain archived afterwards. There is no telephone access. Please access the webcast by going directly to the link www.CapitalLinkWebcasts.com.

Here's a brief overview:

QuoteDrybulk Shipping Stocks Fall, but Analysts Assure Fundamentals Remain Strong

NEW YORK (AP) -- Drybulk shipping stocks lost significant ground in trading Tuesday as investors pulled back on what some analysts said were unfounded fears about the market's future.

Speaking at Tuesday's Dry Bulk Virtual Analyst Forum, organized by investor relations firm Capital Link, some analysts suggested that while drybulk rates have slowed on uncertainty surrounding Chinese iron ore negotiations and low activity, the sector will remain strong through 2008.

Jefferies analyst Douglas Mavrinac said the market's fundamentals have grown stronger since November, despite dwindling charter rates and skittish investors.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Urs Dur believes the market will keep growing as global demand for commodities -- including iron ore, coal and grain -- continues to soar.

"The world will keep turning, and trade will keep going on," he said. "This is such a hot sector -- an awful lot of investors are just getting used to how these stocks work. I see them coming back. (The market) seems quite spring loaded."

Thanks for your posts.

With a 60% loss in TBSI there's no more way to hide it, I was wrong on my assessment of fundamentals or timing was just too bad to think that it was just a timing mistake.

But what puzzles me is why was I wrong. You see, I wouldn't have a problem in taking the loss, even though it's huge, if I learned something from the mistake. But at this point I'm still ignorant and still don't know what I did wrong.

If I took the loss now I would go away without a lesson. And if the price is this high I want at least a lesson for it.

And forget saying "how about the lesson of using stop-losses, or how about thrusting the market and the chart for your decisions?". Forget this because I'm beyond this point now.

I limit my risk with diversification, not stop losses. I'm absolutely confident that some of my holdings will be great long term investments, delivering several bags of profits with just one bag in one stock compensating for a complete loss in my TBSI investment if that were to occur.

I demand that I know what it was that I made wrong so that I won't repeat the mistake again in the future. This procedure is part of my learning and growth process as an investor.

Quote from: mbaugh on January 14, 2008, 02:41:44 PM
Here's a good article that support's David theory on the shipping sector.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/60101-drybulk-fundamentals-remain-healthy

This is indeed a very informative article mbaugh. It helps me understand what is going on with the DryBulk sector, but it is still bullish, pointing reasons for the market being wrong, not right.

I have to think and study some more on this pick and no better way to let the potential loss expand some more. The more money it takes away from me the more I'll need to learn from this mistake.

This is so contrary to my previous beliefs that it almost hurts, but no change or mental growth is made without pain.

I'll hold TBSI.

I have a hunch that TBSI put in a ST bottom. Volume high. I bought some this morn just to play the bounce.

David,
What are your thoughts regarding this article?
TradingMarkets.com
Four Shipping Stocks for Investors to Avoid
Wednesday January 16, 10:22 am ET
By TradingMarkets Research


Many observers have come to believe that shipping stocks are uniquely positioned to help investors determine whether or not the global economy is strong or weak. So what does it mean if four shipping stocks have made our list of stocks that investors would do better to do without?
ADVERTISEMENT


Whether or not the markets eventually lead us into what I've dubbed the World's Most Anticipated Recession, stocks with lower PowerRatings are stocks that investors should avoid. Not only do low PowerRatings stocks, based on our research, tend to underperform compared to the average stock. But stocks with the lowest PowerRating actually produced negative returns on average one year later.

Let's look a little closer at the situation for investors owning low PowerRatings stocks. The average stock, based on our research looking at thousands and thousands of simulated trades since 1995, has been higher one year later as much as 68% of the time. By "average stock" I'm referring to stocks with PowerRatings from 4 to 7.

Stocks with PowerRatings of 2, by comparison, have been higher one year later approximately 41.5% of the time -- well below a 50/50 chance. Stocks with the lowest PowerRating of 1 are even less reliable when it comes to being higher after one year. Our research reveals that 1-rated stocks have been higher one year later less than 35% of the time.

In addition to the relative unreliability of low PowerRatings stocks, those stocks' capacity to underperform is pronounced. While the average stock has been higher, on average, between 12 and 13% after one year, stocks with PowerRatings of 2 have averaged a gain of less than 8% after a year's time. 1-rated stocks, believe it or not, have actually averaged a negative 5.08% after one year.

Now that you know why you want to avoid low PowerRatings stocks, here are a few from the shipping business that are clearly names investors should steer clear of. Ironically, as a group, the Shipping industry remains highly rated with a PowerRating of 8. But when it comes to a showdown between industry groups and stocks, investors are ultimately paid on the performance of stocks. So, until further notice, we defer to the relatively low PowerRatings of the some of the individual (and best known) stocks in shipping.

First up is TBS International (NasdaqGS:TBSI - News). This stock has a PowerRating of 1, making it a stock to run-not-walk away from for the vast majority of investors. TBS International has a P/E of 7.60 and is trading at the lower end of its 52-week price range from a high of $71.15 to a low of $8.10. The company provides both integrated logistics and ocean transportation services including liner, parcel, bulk and vessel chartering.



Another 1-rated stock, Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX - News) trades at approximately 11 times earnings and is in the lower half of its 52-week price range from $45.15 to $15.71. Diana Shipping, Inc. is an Athens, Greece-based shipping company that specializes in ocean transport of dry bulk cargoes.

One of the signature stocks in the shipping industry is Dryships (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News). In addition to having a PowerRating of 2, Dryships is trading in the lower half of its 52-week price range from $131.34 to $16.85 and has a P/E of 6.10.

Dryships is a Greek shipping company that owns and operates carriers for the transport of drybulk commodities ranging from coal and iron ore to grains and fertilizers. Headquartered in Greece, the company is widely expected to blow away its 2007 earnings in 2008.



Our last shipping stock to avoid is Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE:EXM - News), with a PowerRating of 2. Excel Maritime Carriers owns and operates dry bulk carriers, providing seaborne transport of cargoes such as iron ore and grains. The company is based out of Athens, Greece.

Excel Maritime Carriers has a P/E of 9.20 and, like the other shipping stocks in this article, is trading closer to its 52-week low of $14.57 than it is to its 52-week high of $81.99.

David Penn is Senior Editor at TradingMarkets.com

It is part of the bottoming process,imo. Throw in some analyst downgrades and we're there. So no one wants them, they're forgotten and lo and behold,they're on the rise. Look no further than cimt for a stock that got really beat up and thrown out. David's right,time and fundamentals are the keys.

Quote from: BigSully1 on January 16, 2008, 12:10:43 PM
I have a hunch that TBSI put in a ST bottom. Volume high. I bought some this morn just to play the bounce.

I guess it pretty much put in a doji today. I think it would have been a nice hammer had not the market turned for the worse again this afternoon. I'm not looking for very much on it and if the trade begins to turn against me, I won't hesitate to dump it, period. I'm not going to argue against what the market has been saying.  Good luck guys.

Quote from: BigSully1 on January 16, 2008, 06:22:39 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on January 16, 2008, 12:10:43 PM
I have a hunch that TBSI put in a ST bottom. Volume high. I bought some this morn just to play the bounce.

I guess it pretty much put in a doji today. I think it would have been a nice hammer had not the market turned for the worse again this afternoon. I'm not looking for very much on it and if the trade begins to turn against me, I won't hesitate to dump it, period. I'm not going to argue against what the market has been saying.  Good luck guys.

I will also take my lumps on this if it breaks much below $20 convincingly, as $20ish looks like it should also be a support.

It's possible to see $24 before any big drop ..
If it can break $24 level it could be a nice run to the upside again.
The market is going down like a rock and many strong stocks broke major uptrends 
A very bad start for 2008 , but who knows it could be a fuel for a nice run soon.

Hope so

EXM has very similar chart to TBSI, but did a little better today