3SOF

video:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=604259905&play=1
chart:

Sector:   Technology
Industry:   Semiconductor - Specialized
Full Time Employees:   1,745

BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiary, Jiangsu Linyang Solarfun Co., Ltd., engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of photovoltaic (PV) cells and PV modules primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers monocrystalline silicon cells and modules, and multicrystalline silicon cells and modules to system integrators, as well as through third party distributors. It also provides PV cell processing services to convert silicon wafers into PV cells on behalf of third parties, including silicon suppliers; and solar system integration services to end-users in China. The company's customers include solar energy product distributors, engineering and design firms, and other energy product distributors. It also has operations in Germany, Italy, and Spain. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Qidong, the People's Republic of China.


VALUATION MEASURES   
Market Cap (intraday)5:   905.93M
Enterprise Value (28-Jan-08)3:   977.00M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):   45.25
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1:   1.85
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected):   0.45
Price/Sales (ttm):   4.00
Price/Book (mrq):   3.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:   4.26
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3:   44.047


PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target:   147.60
Median Target:   147.60
High Target:   268.19 
Low Target:   27.00
No. of Brokers:   2

Quote from: Se7en on January 28, 2008, 07:16:09 PM
Sector:   Technology
Industry:   Semiconductor - Specialized
Full Time Employees:   1,745

BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiary, Jiangsu Linyang Solarfun Co., Ltd., engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of photovoltaic (PV) cells and PV modules primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers monocrystalline silicon cells and modules, and multicrystalline silicon cells and modules to system integrators, as well as through third party distributors. It also provides PV cell processing services to convert silicon wafers into PV cells on behalf of third parties, including silicon suppliers; and solar system integration services to end-users in China. The company's customers include solar energy product distributors, engineering and design firms, and other energy product distributors. It also has operations in Germany, Italy, and Spain. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Qidong, the People's Republic of China.


VALUATION MEASURES   
Market Cap (intraday)5:   905.93M
Enterprise Value (28-Jan-08)3:   977.00M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):   45.25
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1:   1.85
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected):   0.45
Price/Sales (ttm):   4.00
Price/Book (mrq):   3.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:   4.26
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3:   44.047


PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target:   147.60
Median Target:   147.60
High Target:   268.19 
Low Target:   27.00
No. of Brokers:   2

Careful...many of yahoo's analysts numbers on SOLF are in RMB not USD.

1 RMB=.1387

So that target is $37 usd or $268 RMB

I still think SOLF and CSIQ are very undervalued compared to the rest of the sector.

They obviously suffered very much in the pullback, but if money starts coming back to solar issues like it looks like it might be, I think these stocks come back fast.  A lot of questions will be answered when they announce earnings again.  If they both perform again, then they will both make new highs I think. SOLF may not make new highs, but CSIQ will.  But I would think SOLF will see $30 again.

I think these stocks move higher into earnings.  FSLR and YGE earnings coming up will give a glimpse into the sector.

I may buy some FSLR puts to protect myself against the massive amounts of money I will lose if they disappoint.

SOLF: Short Interest UP 309.2% to 11.3M at the End of Jan 2008
Monday , February 11, 2008 16:22ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (NasdaqNM: SOLF) INCREASED 309.2% to 11,311,866 shares as reported at month-end January, 2008. Based on SOLF's 20-day average daily share volume of 4,415,935, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

SOLF: Banc of Amer Cuts to Sell from Neutral; Cuts Tgt to $12 vs $37; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, February 27, 2008 08:54ET
Issuer: Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (NasdaqNM: SOLF)
Analyst Firm:  Banc of America
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Sell (from Neutral)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $12.00 (-67.57% from $37.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm downgraded the shares to reflect the uncertain outlook for silicon as they believe industry gross margins will continue to contract.

earnings out next days; ugly chart

After all SOLF went down more than anyone expected on this thread.

After the 3rd quarter positive surprise in EPS, we've had the 4th quarter and full year results on March 27:

• Solarfun Reports 2007 Full-Year and Fourth Quarter Results
Business Wire (Thu, Mar 27)

I see a lot of growth in everything expect the most important: EPS.

There are plans for continuing dilution:

«Note that on January 29, 2008 the Company placed US $172.5 million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2018.»

People on this thread generally agreed that CSIQ has better fundamentals than SOLF and the market seems to share that view.

I am liking SOLF as a pre earnings play. Technically the chart has bottomed and has strong support in the $14 to $16 zone. Today on higher than average volume SOLF closed at highest point since Feb 19th. There is a high short interest around 15M shares on a 48M float (31%). SOLF announce earnings May 21st.

All those ingredients could set up a nice run to earnings as Solar stocks are back in the limelight.

Caveat: SOLF were downgraded recently over margin and supply concerns on silicon (an issue for other panel makers also). That said, the information is already in the public domain and could be priced in.

Thanks to Poli for highlighting SOLF to me, however I see many of our good friends are already watching closely.

Bought SOLF Wednesday on the volume backed breakout above Tuesday high.

I like the close support and pre earnings run potential, and short squeeze combination.

Will decide how to exit over the coming days. Am leaning toward profit taking prior to earnings, but not 100% committed to that yet.

AussieTrader,   I sold this morning on the gap up.  My goal was to sell the day before earnings but,  any trade that is a short time trade strategy I will normally sell if it trends higher all day on 2x its normal volume and the next day it gaps up.  I will sell in the first 30 minutes of trading that morning.  SOLF did not follow my rule completely,  because it did not trend up all day yesterday but I had made a great profit so I sold. Good health and trading to you.

poli

Good for you Poli well done,

I am continuing to hold SOLF. The gap up open was closed during the day and SOLF finished near the HOD so I am OK with that action.

SOLF: Volume Spike; 11% > 20-adsv, Stock +8.07% 
Friday , May 16, 2008 11:05ET

This is the 5th VOLUME alert for SOLF in the past 7 calendar days.

Trading for Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (NASDAQ NM: SOLF) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 11:05 ET, the stock had already traded 3,983,966 shares via 10,484 trades. The cumulative volume is 11.29% above its 20-day average of 3,579,825. Normally the stock experiences around 11,831 individual trades per session.

So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in SOLF's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $19.960, up $1.490 (+8.07%).

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $11.740. The price has gained more than 70 percent since then.

Over the last 10 trading session SOLF has traded in a range between $13.050 and $18.790 and is currently trading 50.34% below its 52-week high of $40.190 set on January 03,2008 and 142.82% above its 52-week low of $8.220 from June 12,2007.

In the previous 3 sessions, SOLF trading has displayed a positive trend. Closing results have been as follows:

May 15, 2008 --- closed at $18.470 up $1.060 (+6.09%) on 9,168,500 shares
May 14, 2008 --- closed at $17.410 up $1.220 (+7.54%) on 10,369,000 shares
May 13, 2008 --- closed at $16.190 up $1.250 (+8.37%) on 9,071,000 shares

AussieTrader,  Great job holding.  At this point I wish I had held also.  Can't waste to much time kicking myself.  There is always another trade to help me forget about the mistakes.  Good health and trading to you.

poli

We had 2 threads on SOLF here in the Watch List,
They have been merged...

Looks like we have got a Head and Shoulders Bottom (reversal) Pattern
from looking at the chart.

Hey Poli, you had a trade strategy which you executed, that in my book is a good trade.

There is a speculative bubble on SOLF now as people are speculating earnings to be good (based on other Solar earnings). Volume was big Friday exactly what you want to see in a breakout. Not only that there was also huge volume and action in Call Options which confirms the bullish speculation - see article in this link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=agT89bOSQY3I&refer=news
I am sure Short covering is also a factor here (high short interest was another reason for my entry a few days back).
Wednesday they report earnings. My initial plan is to NOT sell today as this move is too strong, if I sell now I would be more than likley cutting my winner too quickly, 'Let your winners run' that is what is required. That said I am probably looking to take partial gains prior to Wednesday (that was my netry criteria after all) and carry a position over the earns date, not yet decided on that, but I have a while yet to decide.