3SOF

That data is given in RMB, so you need to divide by 7.5.

Even still, SOLF is a pretty cheap stock.  Its starting to get to its real valuation though and I kinda wish I had sold what I've got today.   I may have just talked myself into selling right here afterhours...

I think SOLF is close to full valuation but CSIQ has a ways to go. 

from seeking alpha:


Solarfun Power: The Party's Just Getting Started
posted on: December 28, 2007 | about stocks: SOLF   
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When we profiled Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq: SOLF) on November 20, the Chinese manufacturer of photovoltaic [PV] cells and modules used to convert light into electricity was just emerging from a slump.

Its first quarter had been bleak, as the company recorded a $0.01 loss per share accompanied by a 23% drop off in stock price. Solarfun's second quarter, ended June 30, marked the start of the company's turnaround, when it reported revenue spiked 358% to $61.78 million from $13.48 million in the same quarter last year. PV module shipments jumped 193% to 16.4 megawatts [MW] from 5.6 MW in the second quarter last year. Net income surged 25% to $2.59 million from $2.07 million in the 2006 quarter.

Nonetheless, many analysts were still on the fence. As we noted in our report, "Investors looking to jump into China or into solar are left wondering if Solarfun is a potential sleeping giant that could shine brightly, or if the company is something of a poorly lit bulb in their investment strategy."

It didn't take long to flip the switch.

When third-quarter results were reported nine days later, shares bolted 30% in one day. Revenue in the three months ended Sept. 30 surged 312% to $100.6 million, from $24.4 million in the third quarter of 2006, while net income soared 146% to $8 million, from approximately $3.23 million a year ago.

The third quarter clocked in strong as shipments increased on continued robust demand. Also, the completion of additional PV cell production lines in November enabled the company to achieve manufacturing capacity of 240 MW in the quarter, reaching its target manufacturing capacity for 2007 ahead of schedule.

And the fun was not over yet. Management raised guidance for 2007, stating that it plans to continue expanding production capacity in order to meet continued strong demand.

The small cap, which at $1.35 billion is actually now a mid cap, now expects revenues in the range of $280 million to $300 million, up from the company's previously forecasted sales range of $250 million to $270 million.

Since our report in late November, shares of Solarfun have risen more than 100%.

"Management raised 2007 guidance to the high end of [its] previous shipment range, but we believe upside exists," CIBC World Markets analyst Adam Hinckley wrote in a research note. "Gross margin should improve as pricing is expected to be stable through the first half of 2008 and wafer costs decline further."

Analysts, who had a consensus of a "hold" rating on the stock when SmallCapInvestor.com first reported on Solarfun, are maintaining a "hold" on the stock, despite raising estimates on upgraded guidance and an extraordinary third quarter.

Lazard Capital analyst Sanjay Shrestha doubled his estimates for the fourth quarter to $0.18 from $0.09 and raised his estimate for the full year to $0.39 from $0.17. In 2006, Solarfun earned $0.13 and $0.48 per share for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively.

"We believe management is taking the necessary steps to position the company on a longer-term basis through capacity ramp ...," Shrestha wrote in a research note. "[However,] shares could remain volatile in the near term given current trading dynamics in the sector and the need for capital raise to support anticipated growth." The analyst said he sees potential for further upside once the company addresses its near-term capital requirements.

CIBC's Hinckley also raised his estimates to $1.40 from $0.62 on a strong outlook for pricing and wafer cost declines, coupled with more than two times year-over-year estimated shipment growth in 2008. "Solarfun's strong third quarter built on the improved performance in the second quarter and should pave the way for a great fourth quarter," Hinckley wrote.

In short, it looks like the party's just getting started over at Solarfun

SOLF Ran hard into the close...above $36.

Possibly some shorts getting squeazed.

Well...now we know why SOLF ran up in the last half hour of trading yesterday.

Solarfun Signs $230 Million Wafer Supply Contract
Thursday January 3, 5:00 am ET

SHANGHAI, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF - News), an established manufacturer of photovoltaic (PV) cells, modules and ingots in China, today announced the signing of three contracts for sale and delivery of wafers totaling $230 million over a seven-year period with a major Korean conglomerate.

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According to the agreements Solarfun will receive a predetermined amount of wafers beginning in January 2008 with volumes reaching over 30 MW per year in 2011. The prices will be fixed with a declining price structure throughout the term of the contract. Additionally, the Korean firm will hold options to purchase back a certain percentage of the wafers as modules beginning in 2009.

"We are pleased to develop a long term partnership with a proven player and look forward to growing our relationship with them in many areas," said Solarfun's Chairman Lu Yonghua. "This contract will be a key factor towards fulfilling our immediate expansion goals of 360 MW in production capacity by mid-2008 and allows us to explore OEM as a possible addition to our business model."

About Solarfun Power Holdings Co, Ltd.

Solarfun Power Holdings Co, Ltd. manufactures ingots and PV cells and modules and supplies solar system integration services in China. The Company produces both monocrystalline and multicrystalline silicon cells and modules, and manufactures 100% of its modules with in-house produced PV cells. Solarfun sells its products both through third-party distributors and directly to system integrators. The Company was founded in 2004 and its products have been certified to TUV and UL safety and quality standards. SOLF-G

May gap up this morning too...it pains me to think I missed this run (and CSIQ) because of a gap   oh well...

It's probably ready to cool down...had a nice run-up.

GLTA....Jody

Despite popular consensus, I managed to short some today at $40...appears to be a bit of resistance at $40, imo.

Wish I would have continued to short JADE on my gut instinct but I don't short much...and I should!

GLTA...Jody

...not sure if this is a correction or not.  It may react well off the 13dma...I'm watching very closely.

Still shorting...GLTA...Jody

Covered my short position yesterday morning.

May be too early, who knows, I'm quick to take profits these days.


GLTA...Jody

p.s. I nibbled a little AKNS b/c it looked like it reacted well to it's 13dma.

Got some SOLF this morning at about 18.40.  I think SOLF can run to 30 again.

I was going to pick some up for a day trade....but I missed it.

Today is China day....most Chinese stocks are up big today.

Yeah, this is definitely China day.

But I think it could also be the start of a bigger China rally.  These stocks all got knocked down too hard, and a lot of them have great fundamentals.

I can't believe I missed JRJC at 10. I liked it over 20 and I missed it at 10.

Solars seem to be running today.  I, however, am still shorting 

Any other opinions?

FSLR & CSIQ running too.

Solars are up probably because of a Barron's article about SPWR in Sunday's paper.

I didn't read it but I heard it mentioned that SPWR is undervalued

I believe you are correct.

The  Chinese winter weather will impact the Chinese eps releases to some "degree."  I'm sure you'll see some profit-taking by the end of the day or tomorrow....

A heads-up on ESLR, as I believe they are preparing to offer a large secondary after the market tonight....  (You probably need to verify that...)

I think it may be time to think about solar again. I've seen several oil/gas stocks breaking out to new all-time highs recently, a couple of them today. Oil prices may be set to rally again. Also still very bullish on precious metals, steel, coal, and some transports.