3SOF

Stopped out with about a 10% gain.  Will be watching closely...

Netflix Delivers 1 Billionth DVD
Sunday February 25, 4:39 pm ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
Netflix Reaches Milestone With Delivery of 1 Billionth DVD After More Than 7 Years in Business

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Netflix Inc. delivered its 1 billionth DVD over the weekend, marking another milestone in the Internet rental service's evolution from a peculiar dot-com to a marquee attraction in millions of homes.


It took Netflix nearly 7 1/2 years to mail out 1 billion DVDs -- about seven months less than it took McDonald's Corp. to sell 1 billion hamburgers after opening its first restaurant in April 1955.

To commemorate the occasion, Netflix is awarding a lifetime subscription to the Helotes, Texas, customer who received the 1 billionth DVD shipped from one of the Los Gatos-based company's 42 distribution centers nationwide.

Netflix didn't identify the recipient because of its privacy policies but did reveal the title of the landmark DVD -- "Babel," one of the best picture nominees in Sunday's Academy Awards ceremony.

The Oscars play a big role in shaping the rental requests of Netflix's 6.3 million subscribers.

"Crash," the best picture winner at last year's Academy Awards, ranks as the most frequently requested DVD from Netflix's library of more than 70,000 titles. "Million Dollar Baby," the 2005 best picture winner, is the fifth most requested rental.

But it doesn't necessarily take a prestigious award to become a big hit on Netflix. The service's second-most rented DVD is "Mr. and Mrs. Smith," a less acclaimed flick best known for sparking an off-screen affair between stars Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt.

Crossing the 1 billion shipment threshold provides further validation for a concept that was once was mocked as just another wacky idea to emerge from the Internet boom of the late 1990s. The achievement also provides another marketing hook for one of the Internet's biggest advertisers.

Instead of fading into dot-com oblivion, Netflix is fast becoming as much of a household fixture as the living room couch. Last year alone, Netflix signed up 2.1 million new customers, who pay anywhere from $4.99 to $47.99 per month for DVD rentals that are requested online and delivered through the mail.

When Netflix delivered its 100 millionth DVD in May 2003, the service only had about 1.1 million subscribers.

Netflix success has inspired a copycat service from the nation's largest video rental chain, Blockbuster Inc., which says it has dispensed billions of movies since its first store opened in 1985. Dallas-based Blockbuster has signed up than 2 million subscribers to its online service.

But Blockbuster's challenge hasn't derailed Netflix, which is now shipping an average of 1.5 million DVDs each weekday. At that pace, it will take Netflix about 2 1/2 years to mail out its next 1 billion discs.

But it probably won't take that long, given how fast Netflix has been growing. Management believes the service will add another 1.7 million to 2.1 million more subscribers this year, leaving it with more than 8 million customers heading into 2008. Netflix hopes to have 20 million customers by 2012.

Whether the company achieves that goal may depend on how quickly major movie and TV studios de-emphasize DVD sales and rentals in favor of Internet downloads or other forms of "on-demand" delivery. If that happens, Netflix's DVD-by-mail concept could become as outmoded as drive-in theaters.

Although Netflix doesn't believe the shift to on-demand delivery will happen for many more years, management is starting to position the company for the change by offering subscribers a chance to watch a limited number of movies on personal computers equipped with high-speed Internet connections.

Quote from: Terliso on February 26, 2007, 02:22:58 AM
Netflix Delivers 1 Billionth DVD
Sunday February 25, 4:39 pm ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
Netflix Reaches Milestone With Delivery of 1 Billionth DVD After More Than 7 Years in Business

Alister,

Interesting timing on that news.

After the H&S Top target of 22.40 MADE in mid-January, NFLX found support at the neckline of the Bullish Inverse H&S from last summer.

The initial rally off 21.30 support was a "Gap To Crap," at Purple #1, which was the beginning of a Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple).

The Symmetrical Triangle broke out last week, putting 25.68 IN PLAY.

That pattern possibly has morphed into a little Ascending Triangle (dotted purple line).  The highs of that pattern, beginning at Purple #3, are 23.83...23.88...23.85.

NFLX closed Friday at 23.53, so if it's called higher into the mid-to-high 23.80s,
at the top of the Ascending Triangle, then prints in the 23.90s above that, it looks like a decent chance of 25.68 getting MADE.

If, however, NFLX has a huge gap up of $2.00 and the 25.68 gets MADE at the open, I'd suspect a "Gap To Crap."  The entire pattern might be morphing into a Bear Flag (pattern in red), the top of which comes in today at 25.58, at Red #4.

Above that is neckline resistance from the H&S Top, at 26.20.

Note: The last 3 crosses of the 50/200DMAs have been whipsaws.  The most recent one was a Bearish Cross, on February 14, but it was a low at Purple #4, then the Symmetrical Triangle broke out to the upside, so those have been out of sync for awhile.

The inverted 50/200s could provide resistance on any rally to the 25.68 target IN PLAY, though.  They're at, roughly, 24.30 - 24.78.

"NFLX" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                                 
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                               
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.            
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$            

chart update. Revised guidance

rallied on revised guidance up

Another positive research for NFLX:

the 3 year chart...

Netflix 1Q earnings soar on gain of 3.6M customers
Netflix 1Q earnings nearly double as video service attracts another 3.6 million subscribers

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Netflix Inc. attracted another 3.6 million customers to its video subscription service in the first quarter, the biggest growth spurt yet in a prosperous run that has established the company as a Hollywood power broker and Wall Street darling.

The financial results announced Monday topped analyst forecasts. But management offered a cautious outlook that included a second-quarter earnings projection below analyst estimates. That caused Netflix shares to shed more than 5 percent in Monday's extended trading.

Netflix's first quarter earnings nearly doubled to $60.2 million, or $1.11 per share, during the first quarter. That was up from $32.3 million, or 59 cents per share, at the same time last year.

The performance was 4 cents per share above the average estimate among analysts surveyed by FactSet.

Revenue rose 46 percent to $719 million about $13 million above analyst estimates.

The company, which is based in Los Gatos, ended March with 23.6 million subscribers in the U.S. and Canada, up from 20 million at the end of 2010. The first-quarter surge left Netflix with more subscribers than long-established pay-TV channels such as CBS Inc.'s Showtime.

Netflix charges $8 per month to stream movies and TV shows over high-speed Internet connections. Most customers pay a little more per month so they can also rent DVDS delivered through the mail.

The company is trying to nudge its subscribers to stream video more frequently to help lower its postal expenses. In the process, Netflix hopes to free up more money to buy more compelling material for its streaming library, which is currently stocked with more than 20,000 movies and TV shows.

Netflix spent $192 million on streaming rights in the first quarter, nearly quadrupling the amount spent at the same time last year.

The company's recent success emboldened Netflix to expand its streaming service outside the U.S. After entering Canada last fall, Netflix plans to begin streaming in another international market that management will identify later this year. The company is so confident about the next step in its expansion that it is already drawing up plans to move into another country early next year.

Netflix ended March with 22.8 million subscribers in the U.S. The remaining 800,000 are in Canada.

After adding more than 3 million subscribers in each of the last two quarters, Netflix expects its growth to taper off in the spring and summer -- typically a tougher time to sell subscriptions because more people are taking vacation and spending more time outside.

Netflix thinks it will add 1.3 million to 2.25 million subscribers in the second quarter. The company projected earnings as much as $1.15 per share for the period, below the average analyst estimate of $1.19, according to FactSet.

The company's shares fell $13.50, or 5.4 percent, to $238.17 in extended trading. After tripling last year, Netflix's stock price had risen more than 40 percent so far this year before the reaction to management's forecast.

Netflix Lowers Subscriber Forecast...
Friday September 16, 2011

Netflix Inc.'s (NasdaqGS: NFLX) shares plummeted almost 19% in yesterday's trade after the company cut down on the projected subscriber base for its third quarter of fiscal 2011. Estimates for the total subscriber base declined by a million.

The new estimate pins the company's DVD-only subscriber count at 2.2 million, down from the previously projected estimate of 3 million. Netflix also lowered its estimates for its streaming subscriber base to 9.8 million, down from the previously-guided estimate of 10 million.

However, the company retained its projection of 12 million customers in the third quarter using both services. Netflix also has not changed its financial forecast for the third quarter despite the projected loss of its subscriber base.

Netflix's subscriber loss is likely on account of its new subscriber plan that was formulated in July, which divided its mail-order and streaming services into two separate plans. It raised the prices by 60% to $15.98 a month. The new rates were immediately effective for new subscribers that opted for both DVDs and online streaming services. For existing subscribers the new rental plan becomes effective from this month.

Netflix had expected a decline in its subscriber base when it announced the new rental plan, but the company never expected this type of repercussion. This would be the second time Netflix has posted a net loss in domestic subscribers, the last time being in 2007 due to stiff competition from Blockbuster.

This recent development is likely to be a heavy blow to Netflix after the license renewal talks between Netflix and Starz Entertainment LLC failed in Sept 1, 2011. With that deal falling through, Netflix lost out on content from Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) and Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) movies.

In this context, the intensifying competition in the online streaming market from large players such as Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqGS: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NasdaqGS: GOOG) act as an additional pressure as it will further push up the license fee and also make subscriber acquisition more difficult.

Netflix has a growth plan that includes overseas expansions, which along with higher license and renewal fees and technology investments could result in some cost escalation. Moreover, this expansion plan and the subsequent cost escalation come at a time when the shrinking subscriber base looks likely to weigh on the company in the coming quarter.

Additionally, Movie Gallery Inc. and Red Box, the kiosk company owned by Coinstar Inc. (NasdaqGS: CSTR), are also increasing competition for Netflix.

Problem is so easy to fix...
The top brass at NFLX should all be FIRED immediately. They could have simply fessed up that the price increase was poor judgment and called it off. Staving off the fleeing subscribers would have offset the losses from the price increase. This is truly a case of arrogance and ineptness. If you are not a service that customers need like medical care you have to love your customers and treat them as your loyal fans. You don't alienate them with forced price increases with little to no explanation. Really this is one of the sloppiest moves in corporate history here though it's probably not too late to recover.

Day's Range: 154.14 - 168.00
52wk Range: 140.02 - 304.79
Volume: 17,852,947
Avg Vol (3m): 4,779,950
Market Cap: 8.15B
P/E (ttm): 39.38
EPS (ttm): 3.94
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Loser
Price Loser

Last Price Quote is:
-22.95%below 13-day EMA
-32.47%below 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 41 


Back to the 3 year chart...

Don't take the customer for granted...
9/16/2011

Of all strategic mistakes the leadership of fast-growing corporations makes, one stands out: Taking the customer for granted. Blinded by growth, leadership comes to believe that whatever products corporations produce are unique and indispensible, so their customers will always be there to buy them.

While this mind-set may have worked in the old days when corporations were at the center of the economic universe, it doesn't apply in today's world, where customers occupy that position. With a few exceptions, products are neither unique nor indispensible, as competition catches up quickly with fast growing corporations. This means that customers will search elsewhere for value, when corporations fail to meet their expectations or they become greedy. Here are four fast-growing corporations that have made such a mistake and suffered the consequences:

1.McDonald's (NYSE:MCD). In the 1990s, the company got carried away with phenomenal growth, paying too much attention to the supply side of its business, building new restaurants and buying up other food chains, and too little attention on the demand side, on what a new generation of consumers liked to see on the menu—more vegetables and less meat. Big mistake. Growth and profitability declined, as consumers searched elsewhere for value.

2.Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO). In the early 2000, the company lost its customer centric orientation. Its leadership got obsessed with the product supply chain, lost focus, and end up distancing itself from its end customers. The Flip video product line—a misguided acquisition that drove the company outside its core business is a case in point. The "edge" routers—Internet gear deployed by Cisco customers to get closer to their own customers are another case in point. Big mistake. By failing to focus on the end customer, Cisco has been losing market share to Juniper Networks (NYSE:JNPR), Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), and Huawei Technologies.

3.Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM). For most of the 2000s, Research In Motion growth was soaring. Each quarter the company delivered better than expected earnings results, as its BlackBerry smartphone took over conventional phones—outperforming even Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). In the last two years, the company has failed to keep up with innovation. Big mistake. Rim's customers dumping BlackBerry phones for iPhones.

4.Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). For the last three years, Netflix has been growing by leaps and bounds, luring movie viewers away from the video store and the cable TV to its video streaming and mail order bundle. Last month, the company tested the loyalty of these viewers by raising the price for its product. Big mistake. Subscribers fled in droves for competing services.

Nearing the 61.8% retrace and RSI finally back under 30 like in 2008 low and Williams under 80 also like then - they are not as low as the last bounce back then but think this week we get a tradable bounce