3SOF

Quote from: BigSully1 on April 23, 2008, 12:45:44 PM
sold half at 34.26-34.15. Holding rest for LT and dividends.

Now that I'm about to change my mind on CALM? Well, I changed this morning, but didn't have the time write about it ... up 7.2%

Here are the reasons for my changing stance towards this stock:

1) Investors are now buying "low p/e due to high price" stories again. I guess this is because of a growing sense (like you have) that high inflation is here to stay and commodity prices will just stay high or go even higher, like it has been happening with $WTIC. There's a sense of scarcity. If prices stay high or go even higher it doesn't make any sense to price these stocks at just 5 times earnings or so.

2) Technically it appears to me the stock just made a corrective a-b-c (in Elliot Wave terms) and the long term trend remains bullish. I guess that if CALM manages to close above $35 it will break the $40.75 high and head towards $50:



3) Finally, I read the interview CALM's CFO gave to Wall Street Transcript and felt very confident, management absolutely knows what they're doing. It eased my concern about "eggs are a commodity, prices will ultimately come back down", because what they're doing, well, what they're trying to do, is to achieve a state of almost monopoly in the production of eggs, acquiring other producers, instead of increasing their own production. So, they're grabbing market share while they maintain the supply down so that the price may rise on a sustainable basis. I really loved the interview, let me copy/paste it for you:





SECTOR – FOOD

TWST: Please begin with a brief historical sketch of the company and a picture of the things you are doing at the present time?

Mr. Dawson: We are the largest producer and marketer of fresh shell eggs in the United
States. We are the only major egg producer that is publicly held.
We have about a 16% market share of shell eggs, with production facilities in 16 states from
Carolina to Utah. We are also vertically integrated. We have our own feed mills, breeder flocks, hatcheries, pullet-growing facilities, egg production facilities, and egg processing and packing facilities. Our customers are major retail grocery chains and food service companies.

TWST: What have been the principal reasons for the company's success over the years?

Mr. Dawson: I think one of the things that has been very significant for our success has been our ability to focus on the small things in a commodity market that make you successful, or, in other words, being effective at all the blocking and tackling. We have identified the key factors that allow us to be an efficient producer and we work on those things very hard.
Each week we measure each of those things and we have all of our major facility managers
report on how well they are doing on accomplishing those key factors.

TWST: Would you tell us about the key factors?

Mr. Dawson: The key factors that make you an efficient producer for egg are those
things that relate to the health of your flock and the conversion of feed by your flock. The mortality of your birds, whether your birds are healthy and whether they are efficient in laying,
these are the things that make you efficient and make you profitable.

TWST: Looking back over recent years, has the industry gone through any changes?
What have been the dynamics of the industry over time?

Mr. Dawson: The egg industry is a commodity business and is therefore greatly influenced by supply and demand of our finished products. Over the last year or year and a half, we have had a reduced supply of laying hens, which has reduced the number of eggs available and allowed us to achieve some very strong profits over this period. In addition, this supply situation coincided with an increase in our costs. The largest single cost for an egg producer is the cost of our principal feed ingredients. With the recent demand for ethanol driving the demand for corn, we have seen the cost of corn, which is our principal feed ingredient, go up significantly. And not only has this situation increased our costs, but it has also been an inhibitor for the introduction of new supply. This has helped to keep the egg supply down as people are hesitant to add supply with our current feed cost and that has allowed us to experience a favorable supply and demand balance.



TWST: What do you think will happen regarding the ethanol situation as it relates to you?
Mr. Dawson: We believe that our feed costs will remain high for the foreseeable future
because of ethanol. We believe that the mandate for production of ethanol is politically, not economically, driven. We do not see anything that will change this situation anytime soon, and we continue to build higher feed costs into our forecast going forward.

TWST: There was a period when there were a lot of health concerns expressed over eggs.
Mr. Dawson: Ironically that is one of the things that is really very favorable for our industry as we move forward. Beginning in the early 1970s and up until the 1990s, there was a real fear about egg consumption, with the concern that the cholesterol in eggs was bad for your health. More recently, it has been determined that the cholesterol derived from egg consumption was not a factor, and, in fact, eggs are such an inexpensive source of protein that now we are seeing more and more health recommendations for eating eggs. We think that is very positive for egg demand going forward.

TWST: How much of your business is on the export side?
Mr. Dawson: The export markets are a very small portion of the shell egg business in the
United States. However in recent months, we have been able to capitalize on some export business at opportune times. Eggs are a seasonal business; therefore, when the egg demand might be seasonally low, we have had the opportunity to participate in some export markets that have helped to keep that supply from allowing prices to go down too much.

TWST: You expect the export business to increase?
Mr. Dawson: We expect the opportunity for exports to increase as we move forward. The US is a very efficient producer of eggs. Feed costs are high around the world, so everybody around the world who produces eggs is experiencing higher feed cost. Since we are very efficient producers in the US, we believe that will provide us opportunities for additional export sales as we go forward.

TWST: Would you tell us how specialty shell eggs come into the picture?
Mr. Dawson: Specialty shell eggs are a growing part of our business and an important
area of strategic focus for Cal-Maine as we move forward. Over the last several years we have seen double-digit growth in specialty eggs, which are typically marketed more at fixed prices and not tied to the same index where we sell our generic shell eggs. That will be an important part of our business going forward.

TWST: Would you tell us about your philosophy regarding acquiring other companies?
Mr. Dawson: It's been our strategy for a long time that we would grow our company by
acquiring existing producers. We do participate in a commodity industry where the supply and
demand balance is the key to our profitability. Therefore, if we can grow our company by acquiring existing suppliers, we don't increase the overall egg supply, and we can maintain strong profits and grow the company.

TWST: What are the main items on your agenda, as you look out over the next two to three years?
Mr. Dawson: The same things that we have done consistently — continue to make
acquisitions as those opportunities become available to us. One of the keys will be to maintain
our pricing discipline in making those acquisitions and also increase our sales of specialty eggs.

TWST: When you make acquisitions, are you able to achieve certain economies as you do it?
Mr. Dawson: We actually produce less than 80% of the eggs that we sell. When we make acquisitions, we are usually able to fit that production into our markets, or the markets that are currently being served by those acquisitions, and that allows us to profitably integrate those operations into our organization. We are a very efficient producer, so if we acquire assets at the proper price, we know that, with our production methods, we can produce eggs efficiently at those acquired facilities.

TWST: What about problems looking ahead? Is there anything that you might worry about over the next few years?
Mr. Dawson: One of the things, which we've already mentioned, is the high cost of
feed and that is a concern for us, and that is one of the things that we'll have to deal with as we move forward.

TWST: What would you reasonably expect the company to look like in about three years?
Mr. Dawson: We would expect the company to be larger, have a larger number of laying
hens and have an increased portion of our revenues coming from specialty egg sales.

TWST: People are always concerned about things like avian flu and so forth. What are the precautions that you take in these areas?
Mr. Dawson: One of the things that we do is keep bio-security measures in place at all of our facilities that restrict ingress and egress to our facility. We monitor our facilities very closely and keep those vital security measures in place.

TWST: What might be some year-byyear milestones that investors could look for?
Mr. Dawson: I think one of the keys that will determine whether we're executing our
strategy is to look at the number of acquisitions we are able to complete as we move forward.
The number of laying hens that we have, based on what we acquire by acquisition, will determine our growth. I think that is one of the things you can look at to see whether we are doing what we said we would do. Also, another indicator will be the portion of our revenues from specialty eggs.

TWST: Would you tell us about the backgrounds and the expertise of yourself and a couple of the other key members of the management team?
Mr. Dawson: Our management team really is a mixture of very experienced people and some younger people who we have coming on board. Our chairman, Fred Adams, started the company over 50 years ago and obviously brings a great wealth of experience to our company. Our Chief Operating Officer, Adolphus Baker, is in his early 50s. We also have some other members of senior management who have many decades of experience in the industry and bring just a great wealth of knowledge. We have been able to, over the past 10 to 15 years, hire many young managers who we have been bringing on that I think are going to help us as we move forward. Just recently, we added three new Vice Presidents in sales and operations
that we are very excited about and who will help the company move forward. I am actually the newest member of the management team. I have been with the company about two and a half years.

TWST: What was it about the company that made you want to come over there?
Mr. Dawson: When I came to interview with the company, I was impressed with the people who they had here and the philosophy they had. Despite being in the commodity business, they work real hard on the blocking and tackling issues that I mentioned earlier and that impressed me. I liked the people and that's why I joined the company.

TWST: Do you see any need to improve the company's capital structure?
Mr. Dawson: I think our capital structure is not very efficient at the present time because we have a significant amount of cash. But I think that is appropriate because, while we have been experiencing strong profits, we have increased our cash position. And I think that will put us in a strong position to make the acquisitions that we want to make as we move forward.

TWST: What about your relations with the investment community?
Mr. Dawson: We generally have had a pretty low public profile, but we are in a commodity business and our market cap has not been such that we have drawn a lot of attention.

TWST: Do you work very hard at investor relations?
Mr. Dawson: We really try to put our major focus on operating the company and making
money as a company and doing those things that we do well and making income that will reward the shareholder in the long term. One of the recent things that we have done that I would like to mention is our variable dividend policy. What we will do is during a profitable quarter we will return one third of our net income to our shareholders in the form of a cash dividend. I think that's something that will return cash to our shareholders during periods of strong earnings while leaving us adequate cash for our acquisition strategy.

TWST: What would be the two or three best reasons for the long-term investor to look at the company?
Mr. Dawson: We are the largest and most efficient player in the fresh shell egg business and we are the only public player in that industry. I think if you look at our current valuation, our trailing 12-month earnings per share is about $3.98, so at $26 a share, that's a little over 6.5 times multiple. We think there is some room there. I think we are an efficient player in the industry and will continue to be going forward.

TWST: Was there ever a temptation to diversify beyond the egg industry?
Mr. Dawson: In the past we have had other interests that the company was involved in, but now we are more focused on sticking to the thing that we do best and that's producing shell eggs.

TWST: What occupies your own attention most on a day-by-day basis?
Mr. Dawson: Making sure that we are executing our strategy that we talked about.

TWST: Are there any difficulties getting employees at every level of the company?
Mr. Dawson: No. We have a very low turnover at the company. We have some very long tenures and turnover has just not been an issue. By being a leader in the industry, we have been able to hire people with experience when we needed to.

TWST: Thank you.

I didn't change my mind on it. I had twice as many shares as I wanted and it was my plan to let go of half, probably too early. The rest of it I plan to hold with relative comfort. Thanks to the $26.60 price that Garoh quoted that it could get down to, I doubled up at $26.70 and  $26.60 low was on the money.

Heard an interesting newscast today. Evidently the supply of rice ( a very cheap and plentiful food, or used to be anyway) is so tight and demand so high now, that Walmart is trying to limit purchases to 4 bags in places where they are allowed to do so. I assume they were talking about the U.S.

Eggs still look very cheap to me compared to other animal proteins.

I wonder if dried beans are still "cheap"

There has been much rioting over food in various parts of the world recently. I feel really bad for far too many starving folks. Those able to do so should contibute or donate to those less fortunate.

David you will see this stock around $60 this year ...
I see a very healthy recovery for the stock in a very short time ..
I'm not planning to sell any of my shares until the next earnings .

I'm think of making a chicken farm  

Ah, I  found a newswire about the rice. It's Wal-Mart's Sams Clubs that are restricting not actually the Wal-Mart stores themselves.

Th U.S. really needs to find better energy alternatives than ethanol and move on it quickly.

Peak oil supply may be here much, much sooner than thought.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Wal-Mart-owned Sam's Club limits rice purchases
Wednesday April 23, 4:01 pm ET
By Marcus Kabel, AP Business Writer 
Wal-Mart's warehouse chain Sam's Club limits rice purchases


Sam's Club, the membership warehouse division of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., is limiting how much rice customers can buy because of what it calls "recent supply and demand trends," the company said Wednesday

The broader chain of Wal-Mart stores has no plans to limit food purchases, however.

Sam's Club said it will limit customers to four bags at a time of Jasmine, Basmati and long grain white rice. Rice prices have been hitting record highs recently on worries about tight supplies as part of broader global inflation in food costs.

The warehouse chain caters heavily to small businesses, including restaurants. Spokeswoman Kristy Reed said she could not comment on whether the problem was caused by short supplies or by customers stocking up in anticipation of higher prices.

Sam's Club's restriction is effective immediately at all locations where quantity restrictions are allowed by law. It does not apply to other staples such as flour or oil.

"We are working with our suppliers to address this matter to ensure we are in stock, and we are asking for our Members' cooperation and patience," Reed said in an statement.

Sam's Club has 593 stores compared to 2,523 Wal-Mart Supercenters that combine a full grocery section with general merchandise.

Wal-Mart spokeswoman Deisha Galberth said Wal-Mart stores have no plans for restrictions similar to those at Sam's Club.

"We are not seeing any signs of concern in the supply chain that would cause us to limit the sales of any items," Galberth said.

U.S. rice futures soared to an all-time high Wednesday as investors bet that surging world demand will continue to pressure already dwindling stockpiles. Rice for the most actively traded July contracted jumped 62 cents to $24.820 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade, after earlier rising to a record $24.85.

Relentless demand from developing countries and poor crop yields have pushed rice prices up 70 percent so far this year, raising concerns of severe shortages of the staple food consumed by almost half the world's population.

The steep increases have followed similar jumps in the price of wheat, corn and soybeans that have added to Americans' growing grocery bill and led to violent food riots in poor countries including Haiti, Senegal and Pakistan.

Most of the rice eaten in the world is consumed within 60 miles of where it was grown, said Nathan Childs, an economist and rice expert with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Traditionally very little of it was traded in the world market.

But as populations crossed borders, the taste for specialty rices such as the Indian basmati, or Thai jasmine rice, which grow only in their areas of origin, spread.

U.S. production of long grain and medium grain rice is strong, and the global crop is larger than ever, Childs said. But with some of the principal exporters of the higher-priced rices, such as India and Vietnam, shunning foreign sales to control prices at home and the cost of food generally going up, the price of rice has been climbing to new heights.

What adds to the price spike -- and the run on specialty products like basmati -- is that rice consumers tend to be very loyal. The market is highly segmented by type of rice and quality, and buyers will generally not take a substitute, Childs said.

"California's had a pretty good crop, but basmati and jasmine consumers have a history of not switching," he said. "They could always have bought cheaper Calrose. But they don't."

AP Business Writers Stevenson Jacobs in New York and Juliana Barbassa in San Francisco contributed to this report

On my post just above on this thread I've expressed why I've changed my mind about CALM and that I now agree with Garoh and BigSully1.

I've already left 7% on the table for not acting on my resolution yesterday and now I just need to give it a shot.

It appears to me that CALM made a normal a-b-c correction (due to a "sell the fact" reaction) and the long term bull trend will persist. If this is correct CALM will make a bullish breakout to a new all time high above $40.75. This hypothetical BB will have a technical target of $54.9 and that's where I plan to take profits.

On the downside, I figure yesterday was a significant day on volume above average and I wouldn't like to see it being wiped out, potentially due to a negative reaction to the $35 resistance level. 

So, here's the trading plan for CALM:

1. Buy it around today's open for the TM Portfolio;
2. Take profits at $54.9;
3. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $31.74.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 24, 2008, 07:48:37 AM
On my post just above on this thread I've expressed why I've changed my mind about CALM and that I now agree with Garoh and BigSully1.

I've already left 7% on the table for not acting on my resolution yesterday and now I just need to give it a shot.

It appears to me that CALM made a normal a-b-c correction (due to a "sell the fact" reaction) and the long term bull trend will persist. If this is correct CALM will make a bullish breakout to a new all time high above $40.75. This hypothetical BB will have a technical target of $54.9 and that's where I plan to take profits.

On the downside, I figure yesterday was a significant day on volume above average and I wouldn't like to see it being wiped out, potentially due to a negative reaction to the $35 resistance level. 

So, here's the trading plan for CALM:

1. Buy it around today's open for the TM Portfolio;
2. Take profits at $54.9;
3. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $31.74.

Good move David even though it's a little bit late ... But for a few months ahead it worth it ..

My average cost is $27.70 and guess what ? I bought Option Aug strike 35 and I'm up 170% , while I'm up 22% on stocks ..
This's the way I'm working with good stocks , when i buy it and it goes down more I get some option contracts to protect my money , it real works great and never let me down .. I'm not recommanding this strategy for everyone unless they have good Technical experience ..

anyway , there's many stocks in the market that could do the same , and I'm watching a few of them to get in at the right time ..

David The Technimental Portfolio is one of the best things you added to this place and this is the way we have to deal with market NO Love in stocks market  once you'er finish with one simply dump it and move on 

CALM: Short Interest UP 2.4% to 13.1M in Mid Apr 2008
Thursday , April 24, 2008 16:16ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CALM) INCREASED 2.4% to 13,077,968 shares as reported in mid-April, 2008.
Based on CALM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,374,265, it would require approximately 10 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

I am with you David, in @ 34.79
cheers
O.

QuoteMy average cost is $27.70 and guess what ? I bought Option Aug strike 35 and I'm up 170% , while I'm up 22% on stocks ...

Cool

QuoteThis's the way I'm working with good stocks , when i buy it and it goes down more I get some option contracts to protect my money , it's real works great and never let me down ...

So, you're long a stock which goes down and to protect your money you buy calls, increasing your exposure to that stock. This isn't protection, it is increasing risk by a lot. Anyway, I know why you do this and probably in 80% of the times you make a lot more money ... the problem is the remaining 20%.

QuoteDavid The Technimental Portfolio is one of the best things you added to this place and this is the way we have to deal with market NO Love in stocks market  once you'er finish with one simply dump it and move on

It isn't without a bad taste in my mouth that I'm forced to agree, so much work to then go back to the old ways ... I'm not proud of this. Jumping in and out of stocks, according to the short term waves of the market (that is, other investors fears) isn't exactly what I wanted for my investment life over the long term.

But ... well, today is a very important public holiday here in Portugal (April 25, 1974, the Revolution day which ended the dictatorship and started Democracy) and I have my kids and wife here pushing ... I don't want to get too long and melancholic today.

QuoteI am with you David, in @ 34.79
cheers
O.

Hi la-onda, yes, the stock opened with a gap up, touched the $35 resistance level and as would probably happen it sold off a bit ... the comeback by the end of the day is a somewhat positive sign that CALM will ultimately break the $35 barrier over the short term.

Trading Plan for CALM:

1. Take profits at $54.9;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $31.74.

CALM: $0.807 Cash Dividend; Approaching Record Date
Friday , April 25, 2008 07:00ET

The previously announced $0.807 cash dividend for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CALM) will only be applicable to shareholders of record as of April 30, 2008. Shares are also expected to go ex-dividend on April 28, 2008.

  DECL-DATE          X-DATE        REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
04/10/2008      04/28/2008      04/30/2008      05/15/2008

AMOUNT:    $0.807 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: QUARTERLY (based on history)
CHANGE:    INCREASE in regular dividend

Knobias may issue additional reminder alerts to track the important dates surrounding this corporate action.

&

CALM: Short Interest UP 2.4% to 13.1M in Mid Apr 2008
Friday , April 25, 2008 06:00ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CALM) INCREASED 2.4% to 13,077,968 shares as reported in mid-April, 2008.
Based on CALM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,374,265, it would require approximately 10 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Chart:
13EMA & 50EMA as support

QuoteCALM: $0.807 Cash Dividend; Approaching Record Date
Friday , April 25, 2008 07:00ET

The previously announced $0.807 cash dividend for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CALM) will only be applicable to shareholders of record as of April 30, 2008. Shares are also expected to go ex-dividend on April 28, 2008.

Thanks for this information la-onda.

I need to adapt my trading plan a bit, giving a bit more leeway to CALM, to accommodate for the potential post-dividend correction.

Trading Plan for CALM:

1. Take profits at $54.9;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $30.

CALM isn't calm at all, damn it!

I'm going to reduce the TM's entry price by $0.807*0.75 = $0.60 (reflecting a 25% tax rate) due to yesterday's ex-dividend drop. The new buying price will be $34.15 (instead of $34.75).

Anyway, already losing almost 10% in CALM shares. I fear a bit that my first impression on the stock was the right one ... another fear that I have is that I'll be shaken out by the short term noise and nothing else.

But that's the life of a technimental trader.

I say that if CALM closes below $29 then it's over, at least in the time frame the TM was designed for.

Trading Plan for CALM:

1. Take profits at $54.9;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $29.

Yes David this pullback is shakening most of us 

I'll stop my loss if it close below $28 , I hope it won't

Looking at the longer term chart and the possibly inverted H&S pattern, the $28 looks reasonable. David, won't you give CALM more room here? Food prices should continue growing even faster, so CALM should make more money.

from seeking alpha:


Should You Put Your Eggs in Cal-Maine's Basket?
by: James Cullen posted on: April 29, 2008 | about stocks: CALM   

As I've argued previously, I don't believe this is a good time to invest in egg producer Cal-Maine (CALM) because:

   1. The business is highly seasonal
   2. The business is highly cyclical
   3. It is a commodity business allowing for no real competitive advantages

There are a few related points (i.e. buying cyclical stocks when the earnings multiple is low typically leads to poor returns), but those three above are my central concerns. Since I've seen all sorts of estimates for what the "fair value" of CALM should be, I thought I'd take a few minutes and construct a rough estimate.

Looking at results over the last decade yields a few key data points. Gross margins from 1998 through 2007 averaged 15.5%, return on assets averaged 3.26%, and with average leverage of about 3x Cal-Maine's simple average return on equity was 8.5%. The ROE is what I really want to key in on here, because while I don't tend to agree with much of classical economic theory about perfect competition, etc., it does have some use in cases like this.

Companies with sustainable competitive advantages can earn consistently high returns on capital; companies without sustainable competitive advantages tend to earn only average returns on capital – that figure normally converging on some approximation of cost of capital for the business. So how can we estimate as cost of capital for a commodity business like shell egg producing? A pair of ideas:

That 8.5% ROE can be viewed relative to a broad market index, in the sense that one could either invest in replicating a shell egg production facility, or invest in, say, the SP.

Another proxy could be corporate bonds. Right now, triple-B debt (Baa) is yielding 6.67%; Merrill's high yield debt is yielding 10.12%. The average of those is approximately 8.5% as well, and since an egg producer would likely be rated as somewhere low on the investment-grade scale to higher on the speculative-grade ratings, 8.5% again seems roughly reasonable.

A key point of consideration is whether or not any structural differences are in place that will affect the numbers going forward, or whether or not the company will essentially revert to mean as cyclicals are wont to do. This argument could be made for gross margins themselves, as some CALM shareholders apparently believe they will remain high, but what about other factors? Looking across the time series, SG&A have more or less remained constant given the fluctuations in gross margin, as has tax rate and asset turnover. Cal-Maine has deleveraged somewhat, and I believe that will carry forward to the future to smooth out cyclical fluctuations, but otherwise things in the egg business don't appear to have changed much over time.

How, then, to value CALM with this info? If we simply take 8.5% of the latest net equity on Cal-Maine's books, we get a future annual profit estimate of $21.2 million. This does seem low, as Cal-Maine has been able to benefit from advantageous market conditions in the few prior quarters to strengthen its financial position. What if Cal-Maine can add as much equity in the next year as it did in the prior year? That would give Cal-Maine total equity of $343 million at this point next year; earning an 8.5% return on that equity gives a future profit estimate of $29.2 million. Put another way, if I'm in the ballpark on the idea that the competitive nature of the egg industry will drive returns toward long-run averages, CALM is trading for an estimated 26.9x normalized earnings.

With structural egg demand likely to grow at 1-2% per year, this is an outrageously high price to pay for CALM. Against shares outstanding, the above profit estimate equates to $1.23/share. On a 14.3x multiple (which I believe is quite high, all things considered), CALM would be a $17.50/share stock – about half its current price. This would also put CALM's book multiple valuation at about 1.2x – again, a price I think is reasonable given that the industry is commodity-based and does not allow for building sustainable competitive advantages.

Thanks for this analysis from Seeking Alpha la-onda, since there aren't any analysts covering the stock, any insight we can get is valuable, I guess.

Well, essentially the author's view is in tandem with my first impression of CALM, that it is a commodity business, that the current high profit margins aren't sustainable, etc.

What made me change my mind and the author clearly didn't read it, was the interview given by CALM's CEO, which I've posted above.

What CALM is trying to do, and given its market share approaching 20% of the United States egg market, is trying to create a monopoly or at least be so big that in fact it can more or less control prices. This completely changes CALM's long term investment story, in my view, because, as BigSully1 says, demand and the price consumers are willing to pay is not an issue in CALM. Consumers are willing to pay a lot higher prices for eggs, as they are still very cheap (and tastier) when compared with other animal protein sources.

Anyway, I have a 13.7% loss in CALM and this trade has really damaged the TM's performance, which started so well. Twice damn it!

If this guy says the correct price is $17.5 and investors start to believe that, who am I to say they're wrong?

Quote from: Garoh on April 29, 2008, 10:31:42 AM
Yes David this pullback is shakening most of us 

I'll stop my loss if it close below $28 , I hope it won't

Quote from: berloga on April 29, 2008, 11:15:35 AM
Looking at the longer term chart and the possibly inverted H&S pattern, the $28 looks reasonable. David, won't you give CALM more room here? Food prices should continue growing even faster, so CALM should make more money.

Ok guys, if you feel $28 is more reasonable than $29, I'm willing to risk an additional $1/share to see where this is going.

Trading plan:

1. Take profits at $54.9;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $28.