3SOF

QuoteYou are really just guessing.  For all you know, there could just be one or two big share holders who really need the money now - and it could have nothing to with the company.  And that selling pressure may have led others to decide to sell as they saw the price falling, so it builds itself.  I think this is just a likely as anything you've guessed.  If you have some reason to think I'm wrong, then please tell me as I have a good deal of money in this stock.

Yes, this can be the truth Jim, I hope so. But it's also true that they counted the contribution of acquisitions from the start of each quarter, instead of the exact date of the acquisitions like all other publicly traded companies do.

Anyway, this is about the past, since 2008 results won't be affected by this. Everything should come out clean in 2008 and maybe nobody will care about the past anyway (I hope so).

Quote12/38 = $0.31 EPS * 5 PE (OTCBB China gets about 5) = $1.55.

"OTCBB China gets 5" ... regardless of the company, the growth rate or other fundamentals? Perhaps that's true, but I find it odd.

As you know the company provided 2008 guidance yesterday:

Universal Travel Group Announces Revenue and Earnings Guidance for 2008
Business Wire (Mon 10:03am)

Midpoint of the 2008 guidance implies 38.8% growth in net income. Unfortunately management didn't guide on EPS, which would bring more confidence there wouldn't be significant dilution. This way nobody knows to what EPS number will this net income translate to.

The stock reacted with a 19% jump. Of course, traders see a $56 M market cap providing guidance of $13 M net income and jump in the band wagon.

I don't understand the market ... did anyone think there wouldn't be growth in 2008? Why did UTVG.OB came down so much, to a p/e of less than 5?

I'll just keep holding UTVG.OB and send the newsletter.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 22, 2008, 09:23:24 AM
"OTCBB China gets 5" ... regardless of the company, the growth rate or other fundamentals? Perhaps that's true, but I find it odd.

The stock reacted with a 19% jump. Of course, traders see a $56 M market cap providing guidance of $13 M net income and jump in the band wagon.

I don't understand the market ... did anyone think there wouldn't be growth in 2008? Why did UTVG.OB came down so much, to a p/e of less than 5?

1)  Ok, so there is no detriment to being a China BB stock?  Fine, give it a PE of 20, something many Nasdaq stocks cannot acheive, even with growth.  That way you can justify buying at $4 or whatever you did.  The fact is that China BB translates into great risk.  That's why the PE of 5.  Remember CHID, ETLT, etc.?

2)  The guidance was not a net income of $13 million.  It was approximately $13 million minus stock based compensation, which has averaged about $1 million, the last two years.  So real net income will be about $12 million.

This is my last post on any of your stock picks.  Please remove my "premium" status.  Good luck.

QuoteThis is my last post on any of your stock picks.  Please remove my "premium" status.  Good luck.

What a day ... goodbye buddjas1.

Today sucked for UTVG, but if China market being up 9% doesnt make UTVG run then I dont know what will.

I am not one of the "investors" that want to invest at any time, I understand that sometimes the best thing to do is stay in cash or in the sideline...but David, you should really do something for the Main Portfolio...it is down 25% and continue to be down, no sign of waking up.

You along with AussieTrader are a good Team, so all the best in taking some long term investments.

ciao,

Tera

Guess I gotta be happy with a hammer in UTVG, maybe the trend goes up from here. 

good question terainvestment. An other thing is why not increase in the techportfolio the holdings from 5 picks to 10 picks? I mean except nvtl it started pretty well. And I like the strategy. Hold the losses small and cut it immediately, while let profit run. What you guys think with a increase of the holdings in that portfolio? What do you think about it David?

greetings
blue

QuoteI am not one of the "investors" that want to invest at any time, I understand that sometimes the best thing to do is stay in cash or in the sideline...but David, you should really do something for the Main Portfolio...it is down 25% and continue to be down, no sign of waking up.

What I've done lately, things like selling SYX, MALL and TBSI, for example, not only didn't help, they made things worse. Whenever I see the opportunity I'll do something, but taking actions just because the portfolio is down probably won't work.

QuoteYou along with AussieTrader are a good Team, so all the best in taking some long term investments.

Thanks Tera.

Quote from: tokyopua on April 24, 2008, 07:47:13 PM
Guess I gotta be happy with a hammer in UTVG, maybe the trend goes up from here. 

Volume was good enough:

Quote from: bluesea on April 25, 2008, 02:31:50 AM
good question terainvestment. An other thing is why not increase in the techportfolio the holdings from 5 picks to 10 picks? I mean except nvtl it started pretty well. And I like the strategy. Hold the losses small and cut it immediately, while let profit run. What you guys think with a increase of the holdings in that portfolio? What do you think about it David?

greetings
blue

I've been thinking about it and I believe it's a good idea. But I want to give more time to the strategy ... I want to learn some more about it before increasing the number of potential trades. But that's in the agenda, thanks for the suggestion bluesea

Investing legend Jim Rogers bullish on China again and tourism and agriculture in particular:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aB4sNJlA4AHo&refer=commodities

Maybe this portends well for UTVG, certainly hope so. 

FXI looks like an inverse head and shoulder breakout to the upside to me, so also bullish for China from a technical perspective. 

Nice day.  Lets take out 1.80 and get this baby running above the 50sma next!

QuoteInvesting legend Jim Rogers bullish on China again and tourism and agriculture in particular:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aB4sNJlA4AHo&refer=commodities

Maybe this portends well for UTVG, certainly hope so.

Yes, stocks like CTRP, because they're large and credible, have been benefiting from the growth in tourism in China.

UTVG.OB has its own problems, valued at just 4.7 times 2008 net income (according to management's guidance of $12 M). CTRP is valued at 40 times estimated EPS for 2008, or about 8 times more than UTVG.

It seems the stock is putting on a bottom ... I'll keep holding, I think the opportunity to cut a loss would have to be taken much higher, now it is too late, I'll just keep holding the 2.8% of the Main in UTVG.

QuoteIt seems the stock is putting on a bottom ...

Hi Tokyo, UTVG.OB closed just a bit above the 50 days SMA, which didn't happen for about 6 months.

I found an analysis made by a professional analyst, he was quite upbeat on the stock at $3.35 (attached below).

This analysis will be useful for us to compare his quarterly estimates with actual results.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 01, 2008, 06:12:51 AM

QuoteIt seems the stock is putting on a bottom ...

Hi Tokyo, UTVG.OB closed just a bit above the 50 days SMA, which didn't happen for about 6 months.

I found an analysis made by a professional analyst, he was quite upbeat on the stock at $3.35 (attached below).

This analysis will be useful for us to compare his quarterly estimates with actual results.

I just got home from seeing IronMan (which totally rocks BTW) so I will look at the report later, thanks for attaching it though.

For now I can say that this pattern looks a bit like a truncated Big W pattern and if it acts like that to $3 at least short term.  $2.21 and I break even, would be quite nice to turn this into a profit again!

QuoteFor now I can say that this pattern looks a bit like a truncated Big W pattern and if it acts like that to $3 at least short term.  $2.21 and I break even, would be quite nice to turn this into a profit again!

Yeah, that would be great. The Main's entry price is "a bit" higher, $5.65

While I could understand other low p/e stocks falling (because the "e" could turn negative), on UTVG that was very unlikely because if there's something growing fast in the World right now is tourism and movement of people in China.

The explanation could be accounting and internal control weaknesses, mostly derived from the several acquisitions the company made.

Hopefully, going forward and without acquisitions (just organic growth), the picture will get clearer and UTVG.OB can be valued according to its fundamental trends, which would be several fold more than what it is now.

Anyway, nice 12.5% jump yesterday, I'll keep holding, we'll see what the future brings.

 
just nice