3SOF

from MelfElf 

Bear Flags/Rising Channels aren't always bearish, as we can see in Chart #2. There's no ALWAYS in the stock market, in my experience. LOL. Gigamedia (GIGM) broke out of two of two "Bear" Flags/"Bearish" Rising Channels to the UPSIDE last September and October, but notice that the 50/200DMAs were closely aligned. Those moving averages also gave a false Bearish Cross signal right before GIGM blasted off to the upside. It's better to watch the pattern breakouts/breakdowns rather than Bullish/Bearish crosses of moving averages, in my opinion. The latter can be very misleading.

GIGM: Jumps +1.85%; Vol +110%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Thursday , May 08, 2008 16:21ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: GIGM      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE             $16.19        $16.49        +1.85%
VOLUME           207,247       434,557      +109.68%
#TRADES            1,191         2,457      +106.30%
DAY-HI            $16.20        $16.50       LATE-HI
DAY-LO            $15.78        $15.78           N/A

chart with more positive indications, BO soon imho

Someone still holding GIGM? IF so, are you planning to hold through earnings?

still holding Se7en, also through earnings (we keep the finger crossed)
cheers
Oliver

GIGM: Short Interest DN 5.8% to 1.7M at the End of Apr 2008
Friday , May 09, 2008 16:18ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) DECREASED 5.8% to 1,699,921 shares as reported at month-end April, 2008.
Based on GIGM's 20-day average daily share volume of 457,545, it would require approximately 4 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

interesting earnings tomorrow, still holding 
good luck to all GIGM shareholders
Oliver

GIGM: Jumps +1.93%; Vol +107%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Monday , May 12, 2008 16:21ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: GIGM      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE             $17.14        $17.47        +1.93%
VOLUME           753,559     1,558,694      +106.84%
#TRADES            2,782         6,057      +117.72%
DAY-HI            $17.20        $17.80       LATE-HI
DAY-LO            $16.31        $16.31           N/A

GIGM: Jumps +1.29%; Vol +56%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , May 27, 2008 16:22ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: GIGM      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE             $17.00        $17.22        +1.29%
VOLUME           340,745       530,360       +55.65%
#TRADES            1,836         3,144       +71.24%
DAY-HI            $17.15        $17.29       LATE-HI
DAY-LO            $16.63        $16.63           N/A

TODAY'S RAiDAR HEADLINES for GIGM:
05/27/2008 15:18 GIGM: Short Interest DN 12.3% to 1.5M in Mid May 2008 - knobias

Any update regarding GIGM?
cheers
O.

GIGM: Drops -4.20%; Vol +160%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Monday , June 23, 2008 16:21ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: GIGM      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE             $14.30        $13.70        -4.20%
VOLUME           219,592       571,081      +160.06%
#TRADES            1,071         2,769      +158.54%
DAY-HI            $14.87        $14.87           N/A
DAY-LO            $14.25        $13.61       LATE-LO

very bad charting now, looking for an entry point below 10!

GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM)

Profile: GigaMedia Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and licenses online gaming software, and provides application services, as well as owns and operates an online games portal. It also provides broadband Internet access services. The company, through its subsidiary, Cambridge Entertainment Software Limited, develops and licenses software solutions and application services, including online entertainment and social networking in the Internet-based entertainment markets. It also operates FunTown game portal, an Asian casual game portal that provides online games, including casual games, such as MahJong and various card, chess, and table games, as well as provides services, such as game clubs for players, tournaments related to FunTown's online games, and social networking. In addition, GigaMedia provides broadband Internet access services to consumer and corporate customers through various technologies and products, including cable modems, leased-lines, virtual private network, and other value-added services. It operates primarily in Taiwan, Canada, and Hong Kong. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Market Cap: $715M
Sector: Technology / Internet Software & Services
Website: http://www.gigamedia.com.tw

Technical Analysis:

GIGM is bearish for the short term and mid term time frames, even though the long term trend is bullish despite the huge volatility we can observe on the charts.
There are two main support levels to mention:
-   $13.00 - the long term ascending support (on semi-log scale)
-   $12.86 - the  January relative low

While I don’t like to buy a falling knife, I feel confident about this support levels and the extreme oversold condition for the chart, as it will provide us a nice setup using for example a 15% maximum risk on this trade against a much bigger potential in play.

Fundamental Analysis:

GIGM has nice fundamentals, considering the sector and risks implied on this kind of business. The current market consensus (Reuters) is a 2008FY EPS of $0.82 and a 2009FY EPS of $1.09, so GIGM is trading at just 12 times earnings (2009FY) against a median multiple of 25 for its competitors.
Just with this basic information, I think GIGM is cheap at the current market prices, using the median consensus it should be trading at $20.5 using just the 2008FY EPS as a benchmark. It is understandable that it trades with lower P/E, absorbing the risks of losing an existing license or new adverse legislations, etc, but the bottom line is that GIGM is not exposed to the US market and legislations, so this is an overreaction in my opinion.

Catalysts in Play:
From a Roth Capital research note issued this morning, I see that:

QuoteJapanese site goes live. Our channel checks suggest that the company's
real-money Japanese gaming site went live last night. We continue to view
this as a meaningful growth opportunity for the company and we view this
event as a positive catalyst for shares.
What's the impact? While its tough to forecast the financial impact from
the Japanese site, we believe the opportunity is large considering the
population base, discretionary spending levels, and willingness to gamble
evidenced by the country's large land-based Pachinko business.

For full details I encourage you to read the full research note, where Roth Capital analysts expose their $23 price target and trading thesis:



Even with this price target, Roth Capital estimates are slightly below the market consensus, and its expectable to watch a few more upgrades soon with the current developments in play.

Trading Thesis

While applying some TA just to know where the supports are located, this play is more fundamental oriented. We’re basically catching a «falling knife», what generally is something against TA.
I’m looking forward to play this pick as a 1/3 risk/reward ratio, our stop will imply a risk of about 15% against an expected return of 45%.

Trading Plan:
Buy GIGM this morning not above $13.75

Trading plan updated, sorry for the delay. 

Update:

GIGM was strong for most of the session, but sellers came up at the end, so it closed near the open.
We're just setting a stop level now, following our initial thesis:

Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.50

20F:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5751424
how low can it go?

Update:

Three terrible sessions for GIGM following the tumble in the broad market, forced a breakdown below the $13 level mark. Personally I think this one in particular is too extended, and I expect a rebound at anytime soon, just hope our stop level don't get hit...

Trading Plan:
Hold GIGM with a stop @ $11.50

Stopped GIGM @ $11.50

holy moly 

GIGM: Drops -4.26%; Vol +50%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Wednesday, July 02, 2008 16:22ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of GigaMedia Limited (NasdaqNM: GIGM) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: GIGM      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE             $11.03        $10.56        -4.26%
VOLUME           680,342     1,022,612       +50.31%
#TRADES            2,882         4,518       +56.77%
DAY-HI            $11.69        $11.69           N/A
DAY-LO            $10.78        $10.53       LATE-LO

based no the overbought chart ( as attached below) I am in @ 12.4 to play the bounce (no money left for investing two days ago  )