3SOF

Quote from: AussieTrader on May 19, 2008, 05:21:48 AM
Wednesday they report earnings. My initial plan is to NOT sell today as this move is too strong, if I sell now I would be more than likley cutting my winner too quickly, 'Let your winners run' that is what is required. That said I am probably looking to take partial gains prior to Wednesday (that was my netry criteria after all) and carry a position over the earns date, not yet decided on that, but I have a while yet to decide.

I sold 1/3rd of my position at $25.99

Huge volume and gap up open (which I sold 1/3rd position into). Gap filled during the day and closed with a big indecision candle.

I will look to sell another lot today and probably leave 1/2 my original position over earnings.

I have no idea how the market will react to earnings, speculation continues to say positive, but that's no guarantee

I didn't sell any more and held all remaining shares. I quite liked the days price action and felt comfortable having banked a 50% gain on 1/3rd to hold the rest:

Results are out and seem on face value very impressive. Pre market is up 16% around $29. I haven't decided my course of action just yet.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080521005552&newsLang=en

2008 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS

Net revenue was RMB 1.20 billion (US$ 171.0 million), an increase of 529% from the fourth quarter of 2007.
PV module shipments showed good momentum, reaching 40.3MW, which represented 40% growth over 4Q2007 and 517% from the first quarter last year.
Average selling price ("ASP") was strong at $4.07 and was significantly higher than the ASP of $3.85 in the fourth quarter of 2007. Spain and Germany saw particular pricing strength and the Company also benefited from the strong Euro during the period.
The geographic breakdown of net revenue was as follows: Spain 46%, Germany 36%, France 8%, Italy 6%, and Switzerland 4%. The company's customer base remained diversified with only two customers accounting for over 10% of sales.
Gross profit was RMB 197.4 million (US$ 28.2 million), an increase of 502% from the same quarter last year.
As the Company had guided, gross margins softened slightly to 16.5% due primarily to higher polysilicon and wafer costs.
Operating profit was RMB 144.9 million (US$ 20.7 million), a rise of over 3300% from the same quarter last year and 56% from 4Q2007. Operating margins increased to 12.1%, as the Company managed to control operating costs, while revenues grew substantially.
Interest expense rose to US$ 3.8 million due to increased bank borrowing and the Company's Convertible Senior Notes offering.
The Company recorded a currency gain of US$ 2.8 million as a result of the appreciation of the RMB relative to the U.S. Dollar.
Net income was RMB 107.0 million (US$ 15.3 million). The Company reported a small net loss in the comparable quarter in 2007.
Earnings per basic ADS were RMB 2.21 (US$ 0.32).

Well, there is profit taking (in a controlled way) and there is profit taking (in a last one out the door is the loser way) 

I sold another tranch on yesterdays open to leave me with 50% of my ioriginal position.

-22% on the day!! Hmmmmm what can I find:

Perhaps this is the culprit!!

Goldman Sachs downgrade http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1600545/- which is funny as they recently bought a huge number and have then it seems sold into strength before downgrading. Nothing unusual there that is what institutions do all the time.

Solars were subject to profit taking in general Thursday. Technically we have super volatility which could over-ride any expected support or sane price action. I will watch the open and decide action, I feel I may be selling into weakness, but let's see.

Goladman Sachs:

BOSTON, May 22, 2008 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) -- SOLF | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Shares of Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. fell Thursday after the China-based solar cell maker was downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs, which said it expects to see rising downward pressure on the bottom line and growing financial pressure. 
The stock opened 6.5% down at $24.70 on volume of 838,000 shares.

"We believe the 53.8% run-up in Solarfun's share price since last week is mainly fueled by anticipation of strong first-quarter earnings," analyst Cheryl Tang said in a note to clients.

"Though Solarfun raised 2008 shipment guidance and its market presence has been improving ... we believe that, given muted future top-line growth and looming margin and cash flow pressure, its premium valuation is unwarranted."

Tang said she expects to see rising downward pressure on the bottom line, as wafer price is likely to remain firm and opex will likely increase.

She also expects to see growing financial pressure given the rising capex requirement related to wafer capacity expansion.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2008-2010 earnings estimates by 28%, 21% and 25%, respectively, to reflect stronger first-quarter results. The firm increased its 12-month price target to $20 from $17.

Despite the high volatility SOLF has respected the support from the breakout day candle Fri 16th May. By high volatility SOLF based on past few days is moving around 10% of it's price in either direction.
When stocks become very volatile like that you either have to accept the risk or leave well alone. I accpt that risk as I have banked already a nice gain and will watch how it acts from here, I am looking for it to maintain above the breakout area ($19ish) and then continue upwards. If it can't do that I will be looking to sell.