3SOF

TD update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.23, open
#20 at 20.58, open
#21 at 19.01, open (new)

I felt that I sold too early at 20.49 and rebought it at 19.01 yesterday.

I felt good seeing the white candle closing above the 8ema - just to see it turn red the following day.

I wonder how it turns out today.

Chart a:
I can't help but notice that volume near the lows.
Is it accumulation?

Chart b:
A closer shot of the daily chart with the 3 descending channels.
Doji day on volume.
Continuation of the downtrend or is it an ftt of channel #2 (pink)?

Chart c:

Multiple timeframes.

Just wondering which fibonacci extension may be followed, the one posted earlier (chart a) or this one.

Chart a:
showing 17.58 as 38.2% extension area (which is near the 17.66 low of the doji candle)

Compared to the new chart with a possibility of 15.09 as the 61.8% extension area  if it continues down.

Is it possible for UYG to go as low as 1.69 (100% extension)?

Possible Wolfe Wave on the daily chart?

Chart a: wide view
Chart b: closer view
Chart c: added some notes and a 4th descending channel (yellow) on an even closer view.

ps. sorry for the typo on the chart. I labeled WW#4 as WW#5 instead.  

WW#5 should be where the possible fakeout is near the blue line with the low of 16.25       

Attached is an hourly chart of SKF.
This chart shows the 50% at 145.42 that I missed [didn't get there and bounced higher instead - which formed channel #2 (pink)]

Chart a: wide view
Chart b: closer view

I was tempted to get in at 16.72 ( with brenda from the UYG yahoo message board) when SKF hit the 182.15 mark (0.618 extension)_[which surpased it and touched the ltl of channel #2 (pink) at 182.29]

Milk (from yahoo board) got in at 16.70

and Jay (from Pal Talk who just made 82% on SKF that was bought at around 90s and sold at 182 something by holding it on a longer term) got in at 16.79.

I was waiting to buy UYG at 16.51 a bit lower than Melf's "rectangle" target of 16.55 ( which I changed later to 16.01)

UYG went to 16.61 and bounced earlier in the day (which Melf considered to be support already).

There was a trade of 16.25 that printed on the chart which I inquired other traders about.

It felt like someone placed a trade there to  trigger the stop loss of other traders and for the buy stop to get filled.

Some traders made a comment that it must just be a data error.

If it was just a data error - that could mess up chartist (if they just chart the daily chart without scrutinizing the smaller time frames or the time and sales).

UYG multiple timeframes.

Daily chart:
Will price still test the rtl of channel #3 and #4 or even exceed it lower?

Hourly chart:
Looks like a perfect bounce at the rtl of channel #1(red) and channel #2 (pink).
However, that 16.25 bounce was supposed to be a data error - is it?
Price then retraced upwards and touched the ltl of channel #2 (pink), then moved down.


15 minute chart:
after hours showing price went above the ltl. Will it continue to stay above it?

5 minute chart:
after hours showing price near the lower end of the rectangle (yellow channel) and above the ltl of the descending channel.

On the hourly chart, price touched the rtl channel #2 (pink) earlier in the day, but I was waiting for price to touch the rtl of channel #1 (red).

I was also waiting for price to touch the rtl of the 15 minute and 5 minute charts.

When I saw it bounce at the rtl of the hourly pink channel (at 16.61), I made a comment [(at the chat room (pal talk)] that I think I missed the bounce (coz I was waiting at 16.51) but didn't wanna chase it.

I lowered my buy order instead to 16.01 ( while I took a nap) and planned to change it if  my order wasn't filled by the time I woke up ( and to fine tune it when it gets near the rtl targets).

In retrospect, price didn't go to the hourly(red rtl earlier in the day), 15, and 5 minute rtl targets ( the bounce happened on the hourly pink rtl instead earlier in the day and eventually touched the pink and red rtl's later in the day with that 16.25 "data error").

Oh well, descision was made.

Will just be looking for another opportunity.

Just recently read this divergence report by Parker Binion (found the link while reading kwiat1991's posts [from the yahoo board]).

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2945369

Attached is a weekly chart and daily chart of UYG.

Is that a macd histogram bullish divergence or not?

TD update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.23, open
#20 at 20.58, open
#21 at 19.01, open
#22 at 16.85, open

I changed my buy order of 15.11 to 16.85 yesterday and got filled (and today's premarket low so far is 15.12 )

22 open positions so far on UYG!

Maybe time to start going long SKF (and start averaging down with the lot method)?

Contrarians, heads up!

Jege is thinking of going long SKF. lol

I was thinking of concentrating more on the SKF (to base my buy and sell decisions - and instead of shorting SKF, I go long UYG).

Maybe, by focusing more on SKF, I would be able to get a feel on the bear's psyche.

Attached is an hourly chart of SKF.

Hmmm, where should I start gong long and where would my target be?

I'll probably paper trade SKF (and may go in with real money without much warning. lol)

ares,
do you have 22 open positions on UYG?
surely not. maybe i misunderstood. can you clarify?
thanks
maxi

Brenda,

That depends on your strategy (and tolerance).

I'm still working and re-working my strategy as new information comes (from more experienced traders).

Lately, I've been applying a bottom fishing strategy by going long on UYG without using any stop loss (and just hedging it by going long SKF and vice versa).

I've made a mistake of not taking profits while averaging up on UYG ( when I could have) while averaging down on SKF.

I also have to control my trigger finger and to give more spreads between trades in the future.

I felt too confident on my recent strategy (which I plan on improving).

I've been working on the lot method ( learned it from Skaterdaytrader at pal talk) lately.

His timeframe is way shorter than mine though (he's a superscalper - does more than 100 trades a day a lot of times).

I recently changed the set up of my charts to show more SKF timeframes.

The reason is to have more of a feel on the bear's perspective (psyche).

SKF daily,hourly, and 5 minute charts with
UYG 5 minute chart on the TOS (Think or Swim) platform.

I have UYG 5 minute chart with bollinger bands and macd and UYG 1 minute chart with bollinger bands and slow stochastics on the other platform (tradefreedom).

In my case, I plan to get in more if UYG goes down more (and sell when I think it's profitable enough).

I'm thinking of going long SKF if it pull's back to a comfortable level for me. I may paper trade it first, then put in real money.

gl whatever strategy you plan to employ.

Keep in touch.

Quote from: rickjust on July 15, 2008, 01:50:23 PM
ares,
do you have 22 open positions on UYG?
surely not. maybe i misunderstood. can you clarify?
thanks
maxi

maxi,

Yes. 22 open positions on UYG.

I actually entered a 23rd position today at 14.14 and sold it at 15.49 (too early).

Here's a summary of my UYG trades on my TD account:

TD update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.23, open
#20 at 20.58, open
#21 at 19.01, open
#22 at 16.85, open
#23 at 14.14, sold at 15.49

I recently responded to brenda (temp_brenda from the UYG message board) before I saw your post.

Looks like there's still way for me to learn.

It looks like I have enough inventory on UYG  for my "mini-house" strategy and am thinking of going long SKF again soon.

Here's my recent set up of the TOS charts:

3SKF charts with 1 UYG chart.

hi ares,
so you are short the uyg? or are these long positions.
max
p.s. check out "mind over market" on paltalk . he has the best alerts on stocks plus the most accurate signals on order flow of the whole market

Quote from: rickjust on July 16, 2008, 07:45:11 AM
hi ares,
so you are short the uyg? or are these long positions.
max
p.s. check out "mind over market" on paltalk . he has the best alerts on stocks plus the most accurate signals on order flow of the whole market

maxi,

These are long positions on UYG.

I'm thinking of maybe going long SKF (using the lot method with UYG as a hedge now).

So far there seems to be a bounce coming on SKF but the symmetrical triangle (yellow) breakdown still seems to be in place.