3SOF

Profile:  

 
Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
One State Street Plaza
New York, NY 10004
United States - Map
Phone: 212-668-0340
Fax: 212-509-9190
Web Site: http://www.ambac.com

DETAILS  
Index Membership: N/A
Sector: Financial
Industry: Surety & Title Insurance
Full Time Employees: 367


BUSINESS SUMMARY  
Ambac Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in the public and private sectors worldwide. It operates in two segments, Financial Guarantee and Financial Services. The Financial Guarantee segment provides financial guarantee insurance and other credit enhancement products, such as credit derivatives for public finance and structured finance obligations. It also provides credit protection in credit derivative form, as well as guarantees or provides credit protection on obligations already carrying insurance from other financial guarantors. This segment sells its products in the U.S. public finance market, the U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market, and the international finance market. The Financial Services segment provides financial and investment products, including investment agreements, funding conduits, interest rate, total return, and currency swaps, principally to clients of the financial guarantee business, which include municipalities and other public entities, health care organizations, investor-owned utilities, and asset-backed issuers. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

A ton of potential,
up trending on a 3 month scale, stochastic overbought and now rising.
Financials are doing well and this stock could be there with them.



52wk Range: 1.04 - 74.78
Volume: 76,729,804
Avg Vol (3m): 17,872,300

Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
58.82%above 13-day MA
41.62%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 20 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 6

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,087.10 
P/E Ratio: 3.03 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/06/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral

NEW YORK, Aug 01, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK, Trade) (Ambac) today announced that it has settled one of its largest CDO exposures, AA Bespoke, in exchange for a final cash payment of $850 million to its sole counterparty. AA Bespoke is a $1.4 billion transaction that originally comprised AA rated CDO of ABS tranches, most of which have been downgraded to below investment grade since the inception of the transaction.

As of March 31, 2008, Ambac had recorded approximately $1.0 billion of mark-to-market losses, including an impairment loss of $789 million, against this transaction. As a result of the settlement, Ambac expects to record a positive pre-tax adjustment of approximately $150 million to its aggregate mark-to-market. In addition, the stress case losses in the rating agency capital models for this transaction exceeded Ambac's final payment and therefore, the settlement will result in an improved excess capital position for Ambac Assurance Corporation.

Michael Callen, Chairman and CEO of Ambac, stated, "The primary benefit of this agreement is that it eliminates uncertainty with respect to future losses related to this transaction. We view the final outcome as favorable in light of the numerous widely circulated models that assumed a 100% write off for this transaction. This settlement also confirms our view that transaction mark-to-market adjustments are not indicative of ultimate credit impairment." Mr. Callen continued, "This is an important milestone in our efforts to work with counterparties as we evaluate settlement as well as other restructuring opportunities related to our CDO exposures."

Forward-Looking Statements

This release contains statements that may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any or all of management's forward-looking statements here or in other publications may turn out to be wrong and are based on Ambac's management current belief or opinions. Ambac's actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about the performance of Ambac's securities. Among events, risks, uncertainties or factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are: (1) changes in the economic, credit, foreign currency or interest rate environment in the United States and abroad; (2) the level of activity within the national and worldwide credit markets; (3) competitive conditions and pricing levels; (4) legislative and regulatory developments; (5) changes in tax laws; (6) changes in our business plan, our decision to discontinue writing new business in the financial services area, to significantly reduce new underwriting of structured finance business and to discontinue all new underwritings of structured finance business for six months from March 6, 2008; (7) the policies and actions of the United States and other governments; ( changes in capital requirements whether resulting from downgrades in our insured portfolio or changes in rating agencies' rating criteria or other reasons; (9) changes in Ambac's and/or Ambac Assurance's credit or financial strength ratings; (10) changes in accounting principles or practices relating to the financial guarantee industry or that may impact Ambac's reported financial results; (11) inadequacy of reserves established for losses and loss expenses; (12) default by one or more of Ambac Assurance's portfolio investments, insured issuers, counterparties or reinsurers; (13) credit risk throughout our business, including large single exposures to reinsurers; (14) market spreads and pricing on insured collateralized debt obligations ("CDOs") and other derivative products insured or issued by Ambac; (15) credit risk related to residential mortgage securities and CDOs; (16) the risk that holders of debt securities or counterparties on credit default swaps or other similar agreements seek to declare events of default or seek judicial relief or bring claims alleging violation or breach of covenants by Ambac or one of its subsidiaries; (17) the risk that our underwriting and risk management policies and practices do not anticipate certain risks and/or the magnitude of potential for loss as a result of unforeseen risks; (18) the risk of volatility in income and earnings, including volatility due to the application of fair value accounting, or FAS 133, to the portion of our credit enhancement business which is executed in credit derivative form; (19) operational risks, including with respect to internal processes, risk models, systems and employees; (20) the risk of decline in market position; (21) the risk that market risks impact assets in our investment portfolio; (22) the risk of credit and liquidity risk due to unscheduled and unanticipated withdrawals on investment agreements; (23) changes in prepayment speeds on insured asset-backed securities; (24) factors that may influence the amount of installment premiums paid to Ambac; (25) the risk that we may be required to raise additional capital, which could have a dilutive effect on our outstanding equity capital and/or future earnings; (26) our ability or inability to raise additional capital, including the risks that regulatory or other approvals for any plan to raise capital are not obtained, or that various conditions to such a plan, either imposed by third parties or imposed by Ambac or its Board of Directors, are not satisfied and thus potentially necessary capital raising transactions do not occur, or the risk that for other reasons the Company cannot accomplish any potentially necessary capital raising transactions; (27) the risk that Ambac's holding company structure and certain regulatory and other constraints, including adverse business performance, affect Ambac's ability to pay dividends and make other payments; (28) the risk of litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, and the risk of adverse outcomes in connection therewith, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position, profitability or cash flows; (29) changes in expectations regarding future realization of gross deferred tax assets; (30) other factors described in the Risk Factors section in Part I, 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 and in Part II, Item 1A of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2008, and also disclosed from time to time by Ambac in its subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, which are or will be available on the Ambac website at www.ambac.com and at the SEC's website, www.sec.gov; and (31) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and that Ambac does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that arise after the date the statements are made. You are therefore advised to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects in Ambac's reports to the SEC.

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose affiliates provide financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac's principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation, a guarantor of public finance and structured finance obligations, has earned a Aa3 rating from Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and a AA rating from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services; Moody's rating is on negative outlook while Standard & Poor's maintains a credit watch negative. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol ABK).

SOURCE: Ambac Financial Group, Inc.


Ambac Financial Group, Inc. 
Investor/Media: 
Vandana Sharma, 212-208-3333 
[email protected] 
or 
Fixed Income: 
Peter Poillon, 212-208-3222 
[email protected] 

Copyright Business Wire 2008

ABK - Earnings Watch...

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in the public and private sectors worldwide.

The deal with Citigroup changes the environment in which ABK operates completely. This is very good news for Ambac. This stock isn't going to 50 but it could easily recover to 10


52wk Range: 1.04 - 74.78
Volume: 64,098,143
Avg Vol (3m): 18,533,100

Technicals
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
79.65%above 13-day MA
73.64%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 43 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 6

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,087.10 
P/E Ratio: 3.03 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/06/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral

Big Day tommorrow!

AP
Ambac Financial 2Q earnings more than quadruple
Wednesday August 6, 4:31 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer 
Ambac Financial Group 2nd-qtr earnings more than quadruple on accounting-related gains


NEW YORK (AP) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. on Wednesday reported an operating loss during the second quarter because of expected losses on insurance contracts, but at the same time posted a net profit because of how it must account for special non-cash gains from the same complex portfolio.


Net income for the quarter ended June 30 rose to $823.1 million, or $2.80 per share, from $173 million, or $1.67 per share, during the same quarter last year.

On an operating basis, though, Ambac actually posted a loss for the quarter. Adjusting for the $961.6 million non-cash gain and a $1.06 billion impairment charge, Ambac's operating loss was $1.53 per share.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, forecast a loss of 65 cents per share for the quarter. Analysts do not always account for special unrealized gains and losses when providing estimates.

During the second quarter, Ambac posted an unrealized gain of $961.6 million on its derivatives portfolio, which helped boost quarterly earnings. The non-cash gains on the broader portfolio are recorded based on the current market price for the insured contracts in Ambac's derivatives portfolio, and the insurer's exposure to each deal. Ambac's own credit risk was also factored into determining the non-cash gain.

Ambac took a $1.06 billion estimated impairment loss on a portion of the same portfolio, which is the main reason the bond insurer reported an operating loss for the quarter.

The impairment loss is based on further credit deterioration and internal downgrades of certain collateralized debt obligations Ambac insures, and is a reserve for future expected losses it expects to eventually pay on those CDOs.

CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt, and often include portions of mortgage-backed securities.

CDOs have been among the biggest problems for bond insurers since late 2007. The value of CDOs has dropped significantly during that time as underlying mortgages have defaulted at increasing rates, leading to expectations for an upswing in defaults among CDOs. That has forced insurers to set aside more cash to cover expected claims and to write down their value.

Since the end of the second quarter, Ambac has moved to reduce its exposure to CDOs. Ambac agreed to pay $850 million to terminate an agreement to insure a $1.4 billion CDO. The move helps reduce some uncertainty surrounding potential losses that have plagued the company in recent months.

Uncertainty over the eventual size of losses among CDOs has led ratings agencies to cut the critical financial strength ratings on insurers like Ambac as well. Ambac saw its ratings cut by all three major ratings agencies earlier in the year, which has put a damper on its ability to generate new business.

Net premiums written during the second quarter fell to $123.8 million from $232.7 million during the year-ago period. The broader bond insurance market has struggled with declining business over the first half of the year, especially insurers that have seen their financial strength ratings slashed.

Ambac's claim paying resources as of June 30 were $16.3 billion. The insurer had $14.5 billion in claims paying resources at the end of 2007. The increase is mostly due to a $1.5 billion capital raise completed in March.

Ambac shares rose $1.12, or 24 percent, to $5.85. In the last year, the stock peaked at nearly $75 per share.

 
Ambac Rises On Valuation Gains.......

52wk Range: 1.04 - 74.78
Volume: 67,071,789
Avg Vol (3m): 19,236,100

Technicals
13-day EMA Cross Above 50-day MA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
98.84%above 13-day MA
107.90%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 84 

Fundamentals
Earnings Surprise............
Reports Earnings
Earnings Expected on Aug 6

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,087.10 
P/E Ratio: 3.03 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 10/22/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral

Point and Figure say buy...
Price above 13/50-day EMA, nice jump.
MACD positive. Lots of good evidence that this stock is going up.
Overall market is bullish, for the next month or two.
Things can change quickly, so set stops. Setting stop near 50-day MA.


52wk Range: 1.04 - 73.20
Volume: 76,214,507
Avg Vol (3m): 22,102,600

Technicals
Most Actives
Gap Up
Stochastic - Bullish
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
46.01%above 13-day MA
76.75%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,242.02 
P/E Ratio: 3.03 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 10/22/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Underweight

Confirmation.......
Looking for confirmation from peers here that what we have with ABK since April 7th,2008,
is a large head and shoulders bottom formation.
This head and shoulders bottom pattern is a very big deal....   
this baby going much higher than most think. 

52wk Range: 1.04 - 73.20
Volume: 90,732,175......... Monster volume !
Avg Vol (3m): 24,737,600

Technicals
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
40.19%above 13-day MA
79.77%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,523.74 
P/E Ratio: 3.03 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 10/22/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Underweight

Great call on this one setravis!

 

Thanks for the update.......


"ABK" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                           
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                          
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.      
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$              

Time for an updated look at the chart...

How about ...

Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal) Pattern

The Head and Shoulders bottom is referred to sometimes as an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.

The price action forming both Head and Shoulders Top and Head and Shoulders Bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom.

Head and Shoulder Bottoms are one of the most common and reliable reversal formations. It is important to remember that they occur after a downtrend and usually mark a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. Shoulders can be different widths as well as different heights. Keep in mind that technical analysis is more an art than a science. If you are looking for the perfect pattern, it may be a long time coming.

Analysis of the Head and Shoulders Bottom should focus on correct identification of neckline resistance and volume patterns. These are two of the most important aspects to a successful read, and by extension a successful trade. The neckline resistance breakout combined with an increase in volume indicates an increase in demand at higher prices. Buyers are exerting greater force, and the price is being affected.

As seen from the examples, traders do not always have to chase a stock after the neckline breakout. Often, but certainly not always, the price will return to this new support level and offer a second chance to buy. Measuring the expected length of the advance after the breakout can be helpful, but don't count on it for your ultimate target. As the pattern unfolds over time, other aspects of the technical picture are likely to take precedent. Technical analysis is dynamic, and your analysis should incorporate aspects of the long-, medium- and short-term picture.

updated chart scene...
The 1 year chart
Break of the down trend line.

BreakOut from a Falling Wedge ( Reversal ) Pattern

The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout.

The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.

As with rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, a security remains in a downtrend. The falling wedge is designed to spot a decrease in downside momentum and alert technicians to a potential trend reversal. Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, demand does not win out until resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it is important to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis to confirm signals.