3SOF

POT: Short Interest UP 32.4% to 5.3M in Mid Aug 2008
Tuesday , August 26, 2008 16:24ET

According to new short interest data from NYSE, short interest for Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) INCREASED 32.4% to 5,349,860 shares as reported in mid-August, 2008.
Based on POT's 20-day average daily share volume of 10,942,140, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

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Potash (POT) NewsBite - Analyst's Comments Boost POT
Tuesday , August 26, 2008 10:00ET

Aug 26, 2008 (Fresh Brewed Media via COMTEX) -- Potash (NYSE: POT) opened at $178.94. So far today, the stock has hit a low of $178.31 and a high of $181.18. POT is now trading at $180.63, up $3.09 (1.74%). Over the last 52 weeks the stock has ranged from a low of $82.76 to a high of $241.62. Shares of POT are rising today after an analyst at Business Week wrote that the company "has an extremely strong earnings per share (EPS) outlook combined with a compelling stock valuation." Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and S&P gives POT a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking. If you are looking for a hedged play on POT the stock seems like it could be a candidate for a September out-of-the-money bull-put credit spread below the 150 range.

also down on no news, difficult market environment

Update:

A difficult market indeed. Especially if you are trying to hold stocks through this environment.

JPMorgan released commentary relating to the strike action at POT casuing supply concerns to end customers http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN0240401220080902
Potash supply is already super tight so any further supply problems will likely put prices under more upward pressure.
This is a tough one, the commodity selloff (again) is threatening our swing low stop which we put in place early in August. Technically the old long term ascending support continues to act as resistance and the chart does not look pretty.
We will continue with the current stop in place, if that prior low does indeed fail to hold then I can only see continued downside action.

Trade Plan:
HOLD POT

just fyi:
Potash (POT) NewsBite - Lower Agricultural Prices Drag Down POT
Thursday , September 04, 2008 12:23ET

Sep 04, 2008 (Fresh Brewed Media via COMTEX) -- Potash (NYSE: POT) opened at $153.00. So far today, the stock has hit a low of $146.42 and a high of $156.32. POT is now trading at $150.45, down $5.01 (-3.22%). The stock hit its 52-Week high of $241.62 in June and set its 52-Week low of $85.66 in September. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan shares have been tumbling today dragged down by slipping agricultural prices. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and S&P gives POT a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking. If you are looking for a hedged play on POT the stock seems like it could be a candidate for a September out-of-the-money bear-call credit spread above the 180 range.

fxxxing market conditions, really bad to trade.
cheers and good luck to everybody

O.

ouch... 

POT: New 52-Wk Low @ $95.240 dn 25.62%
Thursday , October 02, 2008 10:40ET

This is the 1st 52 WEEK LOW alert for POT in the past 7 calendar days.

The share price for Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) reached a new 52-week low today, trading at $95.240, down $-32.800 (-25.62%) from its previous close of $128.040.

The Company's previous 52-week low of $97.360 was set 343 days ago on October 25, 2007.

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $107.970. The price has declined more than 11 percent since then.

At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 17,009,357 shares via 100,174 trades, 5.90% above it's 20day average of 16,062,100 shares.

This new 52-week low currently puts the stock:

38.62% below its 20day Moving Average of $155.154
44.72% below its 50day Moving Average of $172.287
50.64% below its 100day Moving Average of $192.940

POT: Q3 EPS $3.93 vs 75c Beats $3.52 Est
Thursday , October 23, 2008 08:28ET

QUARTER RESULTS
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) reported Q3 results ended September 2008. Q3 Revenues were $3,064.30M; +136.63% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +1.29%. Q3 EPS was $3.93; +424.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +11.65%.


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Potash Corp says 'sheltered' from worst of crisis
Thursday , October 23, 2008 10:58ET

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Oct 23, 2008 (Reuters via COMTEX) -- Potash Corp of Saskatchewan said on Thursday it feels the sting of the global financial crisis, but it believes growing world food demand should keep it "sheltered" from the worst of the turmoil.

Potash Corp, the world's largest fertilizer maker, beat estimates for its third quarter but said market uncertainty means 2008 earnings per share should come in at the low end of its $12-$13 forecast, plus or minus 2 percent.

Analysts on average expect full-year earnings of $12.35, according to Reuters Estimates.

"The one thing of interest is that they are taking a very cautious outlook on Brazil, headed into 2009," said Morningstar analyst Ben Johnson, adding the sharply weaker Canadian dollar could help the company's results.

Brazil is a major buyer of potash, a nutrient used to boost yields of crops like soybeans and corn. But credit issues could mean Brazil cuts its potash use, eating in to 2009 demand by as much as 500,000 tonnes, Potash Corp said.

But demand from the United States, China and India should remain strong, the company said.

Much will depend on what happens to corn prices next year, said Morgan Stanley analyst Vincent Andrews in a note to clients, noting futures for the 2009 crop are around $4.30 per bushel, but have the potential to rise to $5.50.

"We maintain our view that in order for the outlook to dim further from here, new-crop corn prices would have to fall materially below $4 per bushel," Andrews said.

Potash shares were up C$2.08 at $85 at the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday.

The shares peaked in June as concerns about shrinking world grain stocks boosted demand for fertilizer, and prices for nutrients soared because of supply shortages.

But Potash Corp shares have since plunged about 60 percent as hedge funds and other investors soured on commodities and became concerned farmers would cut back on fertilizer use.

Quarterly profits climbed five-fold to $1.24 billion, or $3.93 per share -- more than the company earned in all of 2007. A year ago, it earned $243.1 million, or 75 cents.

Sales for the Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based company soared to $3.06 billion from $1.3 billion a year earlier.

Analysts had expected a profit of $3.52 a share on revenue of $3.0 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. The company had forecast results of $3.25 to $3.75 a share in July.

The company said it mined 5 percent less potash during the quarter than a year earlier, but potash prices were up 262 percent. Production has been curtailed by a strike at three of its Saskatchewan mines that began Aug. 7.

Recently, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer prices have slipped as buyers held back amid weather delays and uncertain markets, Potash Corp said.

Major phosphate producers have cut back production, which will support prices, Potash Corp said, and the company could take the same tack to cut potash production if demand weakens.

The company said it still expects demand for potash to outstrip supply in coming years, and will move forward on plans to boost capacity by 80 percent by 2012 -- projects worth more than $6 billion.

($1=$1.26 Canadian)

what a chart action  :