3SOF

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 24, 2005, 08:13:27 AM

Quote from: nikao on July 24, 2005, 06:41:56 AM
.. learned a lot on this stock.. hope to exit it with some profits..than it would be the perfect trade hehe..

I hope that you make lots of $$$ on this one, Nikao.

Quotebut even if i have to excit with a loss it was a good trade, because i learned a lot.. and paying some learning money isnt bad.

That's the spirit!  I'm sure that anyone who has been at this long enough feels that they've paid for at least a doctoral degree with the mistakes that they've made.   

I'm thinking that we could get a normal A-B-C correction of the rally to 1.65, form a right shoulder of a bigger Inverse H&S pattern, then breakout above 1.65 to something in the 2.50-3.00 range.

Leg A of the correction is a move down.  We already had that, down to 1.12.

Leg B would be a rally back up into the overhead resistance (the green arrows on the chart below).

Leg C would be the final leg down of the correction (red arrows on the charrt below), to re-test the breakout, or to re-test that up trendline on Kuepper's log chart (Applause to Kuepper for using the log chart, and seeing that.  I missed that one) depending on where those are if/when we get down there.

The chart would have a very nice look to it (Inverse H&S).  If that scenario occurs, we can check out things like volume, to see if it was a low volume selloff, which it should be, etc. 

If we rally into resistance early this week, then take out the July 21 low of 1.12, that's likely what we're looking at: an A-B-C correction of the rally.

great analysis (again). thx!
I sure would be happy to see a correction like that. guess we´ll notice that soon enough

no volume whatsoever.. 1.700 shares sold/bought at this moment.
(open at 1.25 (+0.04) now 1.21 (0.00))
Since ADST was going down the dry up of volume is a positive thing i guess?

yesterday we went back up a little, but with very low volume. It has printed 3 nice (white) candles in a row, so I think it will go up some more today.

could someone enlighten me what to think of the volume behind the movement of ADST ?

Still holding the stock if it closes above the ascending trendline

Quote from: nikao on July 26, 2005, 02:11:55 AM
yesterday we went back up a little, but with very low volume. It has printed 3 nice (white) candles in a row, so I think it will go up some more today.

So far, it's following the A-B-C correction scenario that we discussed over the weekend.   If so, we're in Leg B, which is a rally on low volume. then Leg C down probably will have a little more volume.

Quote  could someone enlighten me what to think of the volume behind the movement of ADST ? 

I'm no expert on volume (or anything else), but that's characteristic of a correction, even though we're in a little rally phase here.  I wouldn't get too hung up on trying to interpret each day's volume.  The important thing is that we'd like to see more volume on pattern breakouts, and lower volume during corrections.   

hmm. the hard part for me will be the determination of the top of this rally.. (to get out at the right exit point)
do you think it will go to the 1,59 / 1.65 zone to form a double top and fall over?

Quotedo you think it will go to the 1,59 / 1.65 zone to form a double top and fall over?

Total guess on my part, of course, but that wouldn't be my guess, based on the fact that the July 15 open at 1.65 was the high of the day, then the stock reversed lower on the second heaviest trading volume of the year.  It closed at 1.46 that day, and all of the buyers between the 1.46 close and the 1.65 open have been "hung" with a paper loss ever since (the Hanging Man-like candle).  There are alot of very willing sellers (overhead supply...resistance) starting at that 1.46 close, particularly, who would like to get out with a break even.

Quote from: nikao on July 26, 2005, 05:21:46 AM
hmm. the hard part for me will be the determination of the top of this rally.. (to get out at the right exit point)

Fibonacci retracements often are helpful with that.  I put them on the chart below.  A 50% retracement of a rally or a selloff is considered to be fairly normal.  Sometimes, you only get a 23.6% or a 38.2% retracement.

ADST almost is at the 38.2% retracement, which is 1.325.  If it prints 1.33, it likely will go to the 50% retracement level, which 1.385.  Resistance likely will start to become tougher there, because the stock is getting closer to the July 15 close of 1.46.

The 61.8% retracement level is 1.4475, and now the stock is right near that 1.46 close.  I would peg that as very difficult resistance.  Rule of thumb is that if a stock retraces more than 61.8% of a move, then it's got a better chance to continue in that direction, i.e., go back up to the 1.65 high.

My guess is that ADST won't get above, or much above, 1.4475 - 1.46 on this rally off Thursday's low of 1.12.  Just a guess.

Quote

after a very weak volume start ADST went further up to close at 1,36 with a nice white candle.. good to see this stock back in the green for me

the candle of today gives me good hope for tomorrow.. I will hold it to let my profits run and so i don't eat like a bird

well .. looks like you're right Melf; after a high of 1,43 it pulled back to close below the close of the day before at 1.34

I really don't know what to do here, my rational side tells me to sell at the open and get back in somewhere around 1.20. But, as allways in these cases, Im a little bit afraid to sell. Always frightned that it will go right up and have it's real break out right after i sold out..

this is the chart;

Quote from: nikao on July 28, 2005, 01:59:49 AM
...after a high of 1,43 it pulled back to close below the close of the day before at 1.34

Yeah, I saw it stalling right at that difficult 1.4475 - 1.46 resistance, then fading.  There's some supply there.  So, far it's still following the A-B-C correction scenario.  Green arrows on the chart are the "B" rally.  Red arrows are a "C" down. 

The validated trendline  (purple line on chart) off the June low looks to be next important support.  If ADST can hold it, or hold above, you could get your rally back to the top of the range.  If that trandline gets broken, the odds increase that you'll get a corrective "C" down.

QuoteI really don't know what to do here, my rational side tells me to sell at the open and get back in somewhere around 1.20. But, as allways in these cases, Im a little bit afraid to sell. Always frightned that it will go right up and have it's real break out right after i sold out.

Decisions...decisions.  If you sell, I would suggest that you don't get back in at 1.20.  The purple up trendline on the chart below is a validated trendline that comes in today at about 1.23.  At 1.20, you'd be getting back in on a break of trendline support, especially if it's a break on a closing basis, and you likely will be riding a "C" wave down. 

thx again melf!

When I said 1,20 i meant the ascending support line.. so we agree uppon that point

I'll try to sell at the opening around 1,41 (hope it will spike a little like yesterday) and then get back in around the support line.. (I really think it will go there.. just hoping it will also hold )

it still is an interesting stock to play (very much learned here )

Another ugly hangman, I'm afraid of them now

ADST didn't reach my selling target of 1.41 or else it would have been a good trading day. The range was 1,40 - 1,26 with the close on 1.32. So far it's stil not violating the ascending support lines, so it's still bullish and im still in.

it's still above the ascending support. I added a resistance in the chart as well since it looks like ADST is moving nicely in a price channel. Just waiting to bounce of the support (somewhere today or tomorrow) to break the resistance (1,50 - 1,54)

getting ready for a big spike (i hope/think it will be a spike up!)
Volume is really drying up, yesterdays volume was only 5611 ! that's only 8,67% of the 3m Avg Vol

It's still trading in the 30ties, (lo/op 1.33 hi/cl 1.35)

I'll have to be allert today to make sure I don't miss the movement

hmm forgot to reply in this topic..

It seems that I was right that ADST was about to spike up  
but unfortunately it didn't have enough power to take out resistance around 1,50-1,54
so I sold the day after the spike up at 1,45

If I look at the chart right now it seems I was right selling at that point.. as it is forming a Adam and Eve pattern right now...

will keep an eye on this one though...

Nikao,

Interesting to see how this devil played out.   

It completed the A-B-C correction while putting in the right shoulder of the big Inverse H&S pattern, as we discussed, and now has broken out.  The sharper sloping up trendline (red) was violated, but the more important up trendline off the May low (green) held.   

Too bad that it doesn't have more volume, or I'd be interested.