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Friday, May 13, 2011...

•   June crude oil prices this morning are trading up +$1.00 a barrel and June gasoline is +2.91 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fell early after the IEA cut its 2011 global oil demand forecast but recovered theirs losses and finished mixed after the dollar retreated from a 3-1/2 week high: CLM11 +$0.76, RBM11 -5.89.

                Bullish factors included (1) a reversal in the dollar which fell back from a 3-1/2 week high and closed lower, which boosts investment demand in commodities, and (2) concern that the worst flooding of the Mississippi River in 75 years might limit US gasoline supplies as it may force the closure of 11 refiners between New Orleans and Baton Rouge with a combined capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day, or 13% of US output.

                Bearish factors included (1) the action by the IEA to cut its 2011 global oil demand forecast by -190,000 barrels a day saying "high oil prices have finally begun to dent demand," and (2) concern that the act ion by the PBOC to raise banks' reserve requirements for the fifth time this year to a record high 21% will slow the Chinese economy and its energy demand.

Monday, May 16, 2011...

•   June crude oil prices this morning are trading down -$1.69 a barrel and June gasoline is -4.39 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday settled higher but well off of their best levels as weak equities and a stronger dollar offset strength in demand from robust Q1 European economic growth: CLM11 +$0.68, RBM11 +1.05.

                Bullish factors included (1) the stronger than expected Q1 Euro-Zone GDP, which is positive for energy demand and consumption, (2) the prediction from Goldman Sachs that the oil market is "structurally bullish" and prices are likely to be higher in 12 months, and (3) concern that the worst flooding of the Mississippi River in 75 years may threaten US gasoline production as refiners in the Mississippi Delta region may be forced to close.

                Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-1/4 month high, which reduces investment demand in commodities, and (2) the sell-off in stock prices, which undercuts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011...

•   June crude oil prices this morning are trading down -1 cent a barrel and June gasoline is +1.05 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower after the opening of a Louisiana spillway reduced concerns that refiners along the Mississippi will be forced to close along with demand concerns after the release of weaker-than-expected US economic data: CLM11 -$2.28, RBM11 -14.33. Jun gasoline fell to a 2-month low.

                Bearish factors included (1) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen and slow the global economy and energy demand as European leaders and the IMF met in Brussels to discuss additional aid to Greece, (2) weaker-than-expected US economic data on May Empire manufacturing and the May NAHB housing market index, which signals a possible slowdown in the US economy that may curtail fuel demand, (3) reduced concerns that refineries along the Mississippi River delta will be forced to close after flood gates on the Morganza floodway in Louisiana were opened to reduce pressure on the Mississippi River system, and (4) the prediction from the global head of research at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch that oil prices will fall in the second half of this year as current high prices begin to cause "demand destruction."

                Bullish factors included (1) the reversal in the dollar index which retreated from a 1-1/4 month high and closed lower, and (2) concern that the worst flooding of the Mississippi River in 75 years may force refiners located near the Mississippi Delta region to close, which would disrupt US gasoline supplies.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011...

•   June crude oil prices this morning are trading up +$1.27 a barrel and June gasoline is +3.08 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower for a second day after weaker-than-expected economic data stoked demand concerns while the opening of the Morganza floodway reduced concerns about flooding to refineries along the Mississippi River: CLM11 -$0.46, RBM11 -1.18. Jun crude slipped to a 1-1/2 week low and Jun gasoline fell to a 2-month low.

                Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected US economic data on Apr US housing starts and industrial production, which indicates the economy and fuel demand may slow, (2) reduced concerns that refineries along the Mississippi River delta will be forced to close after flood gates on the Morganza floodway in Louisiana were opened to reduce pressure on the flooded Mississippi River system, and (3) the outlook for increased supplies when the DOE releases its weekly inventory figures on Wed. Expectation s for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for crude oil supplies to advance +1.7 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to rise +1.0 million bbl, distillate inventories to increase +500,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to rise +0.4 to 82.1% of capacity.

Thursday, May 19, 2011...

•   June crude oil prices this morning are trading up +34 cents a barrel and June gasoline is +0.63 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday rallied sharply after an unexpected decline in weekly crude and distillate inventories and an increase in US gasoline demand: CLM11 +$3.19, RBM11 +3.62.

                Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in weekly DOE crude inventories (-15,000 bbl versus expectations of +1.7 million bbl), (2) the unexpected decline in weekly DOE distillate supplies which fell to a 2-year low (-1.16 million bbl to 143.1 million bbl versus expectations of +500,000 bbl), (3) the smaller-than-expected climb in weekly gasoline inventories (+119,000 bbl versus expectations of +1.0 million bbl), (4) the +2.5% increase in weekly US gasoline demand to 9.05 million barrels a day, the first gain in 3 weeks, and (5) the prediction from Oilchem.net that China's fuel supplies may tighten as its largest refineries shut about 7% of their capaci ty in Q3 for scheduled maintenance.

                Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which reduces investment demand in commodities, and (2) the larger than expected increase in the US refinery utilization rate which climbed to its highest level in 1-1/2 months and bodes well for increased production of gasoline and distillate supplies in the weeks ahead (+1.5 to 83.2% versus expectations of +0.4 to 82.1%).

Friday, May 20, 2011...

•   June crude oil prices this morning are trading up +13 cents a barrel and June gasoline is -0.80 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled lower as a weak dollar and a larger-than-expected drop in weekly jobless claims fueled an early rally but, a mid-morning report on weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity sent prices tumbling into the close: CLM11 -$1.66, RBM11 -2.95.

                Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which slid to its lowest level in 7 months and signals weakened energy demand, (2) the larger-than-expected downward revision to Q1 Japan GDP, which indicates decreased fuel demand in the world's third-largest oil consumer, and (3) the prediction from the AAA that the number of Americans driving more than 50 miles over the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend will fall by 100,000 to 30.9 million, the first decline in 3 years as high gasoline prices deter Americans from tak ing road trips.

                Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar which lift investment demand for commodities, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly US jobless claims, which suggest improvement in the labor market that may benefit fuel demand, and (3) the report from NOAA that said the US may experience an "above normal" Atlantic hurricane season this year with 12 to 18 named storms, which increases the chances of damage to Gulf Coast refiners that may limit US fuel output.

Savor Cheap Gas Prices While You Can...

ByDaniel Dicker, Senior Contributor to TheStreet , On Tuesday May 31, 2011, 7:10 am EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Memorial Day has come and gone, signaling the start of the summer -- and the summer driving season. After the wild gyrations of the crude oil market this spring, what should we expect for gas prices? The outlook actually looks pretty good for the next several months.

Summer brings thoughts of vacations with the family in the car, and that means that gas prices are a big part of those plans. There's been a big run-up in gas prices over the past year, from an average price of $2.76 last Memorial day to $3.81 yesterday.

Gas prices are dependent upon crude oil prices, the stuff that is refined to make gasoline, and crude was affected by a variety of forces in the past 12 months but particularly by the supply threats of Mideast revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia and ongoing strife in Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. Gas itself staged a price resurgence, and margins for refining gasoline have seen their best year since 2006, also driving up the price.

But after Brent crude traded in London surged to close to $125 a barrel last month, bringing national average gas prices close to $4 a gallon, prices have moderated somewhat.

Demand is down here in the United States as people are responding to the high prices in the only way they can: driving less. The uprisings in the Middle East, while not in any way finished, have seemed to quiet down a bit. And big crude oil traders have taken some profits out of the temporarily overheated crude price and may be looking, with the upcoming uncertainty of the end of the Federal Reserve's QE2 program, to take a break from flooding the crude market in the next two months with churning volatility.

It takes several weeks normally for prices in the futures markets to find their way out to the streets for consumers, but crude's recent $15 fall should translate into an almost 40-cent retreat in the price of gas at the pumps. Indeed, the national average price for gas is down another 8 cents in the past week alone. If crude oil can continue to trade here, with the West Texas Intermediate price that is traded at the NYMEX in New York hovering closer to $100 a barrel or lower, the national average for gasoline should steadily drop at least another 20 to 25 cents a gallon.

That would be a great relief for summer vacationers, but the question is, will it?

After coming out of a semi-balloon type of busting of oil prices in the past few weeks, it would be more likely that markets would take that break and continue to trade sideways, if not move lower, for the next several weeks and even months. Still, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the two strongest and most influential oil traders in the world, have put positive, bullish research notes out on crude oil in the past two weeks.

They both call for higher prices in the next 12 months, with the proviso that, near term, there could still be more moderating that could take place. Their "doomsday" scenarios of $120, $130 and even $150 crude prices won't happen for sure until the last quarter of this year and going into 2012 and even 2013, they say.

So if they're right, this really is a summer to savor -- even with pump prices that will likely hover more than 70 cents higher than last year. Compared to what's to come in the summers ahead, according to the trading "experts," this summer's gas prices are going to look relatively cheap.

Oil settles below $101 on weak economic data
Oil falls on discouraging economic news; private employers added fewest jobs since Sept.

Chris Kahn, AP Energy Writer, On Wednesday June 1, 2011, 3:30 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil gave back the gains it made in the past few trading days on Wednesday following discouraging economic news.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery lost $2.41, or 2.4 percent, to settle at $100.29 per barrel Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices slipped after economic reports showed motorists buying less fuel, private employers adding fewer jobs than expected and U.S. manufacturing growth slowing dramatically.

Oil has wavered around $100 per barrel during the past few weeks. It's come down from highs set in early May following concerns that high fuel prices were putting too much pressure on the economy.

Payroll processor ADP added to those concerns Wednesday. The group said private employers created just 38,000 jobs in May, down from 177,000 in April. That's the weakest number since September. The government unemployment report for May is due out Friday.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing hit the brakes in March with the sharpest monthly decline in growth since 1984. The ISM index of manufacturing for May slipped to 53.5 percent from 60.4 in April.

"The manufacturing sector was one bright spot for the economy," PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said. "It was really pushing the economy along. Now we're wondering what's going to be driving things."

MasterCard SpendingPulse also reported that retail gasoline demand in the U.S. fell for the 10th consecutive week. Its survey estimated that Americans bought 389.2 million gallons of gasoline per day, on average. That's 2 percent less than the same week last year.

Oil was pulled even lower as the dollar rose in afternoon trading. Crude is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive as the greenback strengthens relative to foreign currencies.

In addition, global crude supplies are growing as oil operations in Iraq continue to recover from the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization said the country's oil exports averaged 2.225 million barrels per day in May, up from 2.14 million barrels per day in April.

For the next few weeks at least, investors and energy economists will keep a closer eye on SpendingPulse and other reports that estimate how much Americans are driving. U.S. highways are usually filled with vacationers during the summer, but analysts think travel will be impacted this year as soaring fuel prices squeeze family budgets.

"Summer is a real boom time for energy markets," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. This year though he said a lot of people may want to keep their cars at home. "And I'm not sure if gas prices dropping from $4 to $3 per gallon is going to convince them to hop back in the car," Lynch added.

Consumers also may be dealing with higher gasoline prices in other ways.

Oil analyst Stephen Schork noted that Bureau of Economic Analysis data show that sales of used cars rose in April from March while sales of new cars declined. "Consumers are likely scaling back on new cars and putting that money toward their gasoline bills," Schork said.

Carmakers released May sales figures Wednesday. Both GM and Ford reported lower sales overall. Analysts expect total U.S. auto sales to fall 4 percent compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices continue to drop. The national average declined for the 20th day to $3.775 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. A gallon of regular is 17.7 cents cheaper than it was a month ago, but it's still $1.05 higher than the same time last year.

In other Nymex trading for July contracts, heating oil gave up 4.43 cents to settle at $3.0087 per gallon and gasoline futures fell 7.30 cents to settle at $2.9773 per gallon. Natural gas lost 3.7 cents to settle at $4.629 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude fell $2.20 to settle at $114.53 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Chris Kahn can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/ChrisKahnAP

Monday, May 23, 2011...

•   July crude oil prices this morning are trading down -$2.40 a barrel and July gasoline is -4.29 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday fell early on the stronger dollar but then rallied and closed higher after the API reported the US fuel consumption increased in April: CLN11 +$1.17, RBN11 +1.63.

                Bullish factors included (1) data from the US Labor Department that showed payrolls grew in 42 states in Apr, while the unemployment rate fell in 39, which signals broad-based strength in the labor market that may lead to increased economic strength and fuel demand, and (2) data from the API that said US fuel consumption as measured by deliveries of petroleum products, rose in Apr by +5.2% to 19.9 million barrels a day from a year earlier.

                Bearish factors included (1) strength in the dollar, which reduces investment demand in commodities, (2) the statement from Germany's Bundesbank that growth in Germany, Europe's largest economy will probably slow because growth in Q1 was "overstated," and (3) the slump in the equity market which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011...

•   July crude oil prices this morning are trading up +$1.12 a barrel and July gasoline is +3.64 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower due to a strong dollar along with concern that global energy demand will weaken from the European sovereign-debt crisis and a slowdown in Chinese and European manufacturing activity: CLN11 -$2.40, RBN11 -1.44.

                Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index to t 1-1/2 month high, which reduces investment demand in commodities, (2) the drop in the May China HSBC manufacturing PMI to its slowest level in 10 months, which indicates reduced energy consumption, (3) the larger-than-expected decline in the May Euro-Zone PMI composite, and (4) concern that the European debt crisis may worsen and slow energy demand after the yields on Greek and Irish 10-year government bonds rose to records and Standard & Poor's warned it may downgrade Italy's debt.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011...

•   July crude oil prices this morning are trading down -11 cents a barrel and July gasoline is -1.01 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled higher due to the weak dollar and after Goldman Sachs said it was turning "more bullish" on commodities: CLN11 +$1.89, RBN11 +5.21.

                Bullish factors included (1) a decline in the dollar which encourages investment demand in commodities, (2) fund buying of crude after the statement from Goldman Sachs that it's turning "more bullish" on commodities and its prediction that "It is only a matter of time until inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supplies," and (3) the outlook for weekly crude supplies to decline when the DOE reports weekly crude oil inventories on Wed.

                Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in May Richmond Fed manufacturing index to a 2-year low , which indicates weakened energy consumption, and (2) the outlook for gasoline supplies to increase on Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report. Expectations for weekly inventories from the DOE are for crude oil supplies to fall -1.7 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to rise +500,000 bbl, distillate inventories to increase +50,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to rise +0.5 to 83.7% of capacity.

Oil ends week unchanged at around $100 per barrel
Oil floats around $100 per barrel after government says unemployment rate increased

Friday June 3, 2011, 3:47 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil seems to be stuck at $100 per barrel.

Despite more gloomy economic reports, benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude on Friday settled just about where it began the day: down 18 cents at $100.22 per barrel. Oil has hovered around the $100 mark since early May.

"It's like there's a magnet on that $100 level," independent oil analyst Jim Ritterbusch said. "As soon as we get $2, $3 away in either direction, it snaps back."

One reason for the relative stability of oil is its relationship to the dollar. Crude is priced in U.S. currency, so oil and the dollar often move in opposite directions. When the dollar rises, for example, it makes oil more expensive for investors holding foreign currency, and oil prices fall. When the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.8 percent Friday in afternoon trading, the weaker dollar buoyed oil futures, keeping prices from falling further.

Oil withstood a steady parade of anemic readings this week for U.S. housing, manufacturing, retail sales, consumer confidence, and petroleum demand. As the summer driving season began, the government said oil supplies grew while Americans pumped less gas.

The Labor Department's jobs report on Friday was the latest in a series of disappointing economic data. The U.S. added 54,000 jobs in May, the fewest in eight months. During the previous three months, the economy added an average of 220,000 jobs per month.

Manufacturers cut 5,000 jobs, retailers slashed 8,500 positions and leisure and hospitality businesses dropped 6,000 jobs. Lackluster hiring could mean fewer drivers on the road and gasoline consumption may continue to slide this summer.

PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said the sluggish economy should eventually push down the price of oil, perhaps as much as $20 per barrel.

Prices could tumble next week if China raises its interest rates again to slow its economy. China is the world's second biggest oil consumer behind the U.S. And OPEC ministers may agree to increase oil production at a meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Rising global supplies would also tend to keep prices lower.

Oil got some support Friday as violence escalated in Yemen. Yemen exports only a small amount of the world's oil -- less than 2 percent -- but it sits on one of the world's most important shipping corridors for oil. The country has been embroiled in an uprising against the government for months, and on Friday its president was wounded in a rocket attack by rebels on his palace.

"It's tough to sell oil before the weekend with that going on," Flynn said. Some investors will lock in their oil positions ahead of the weekend, when markets are closed, if political instability threatens supplies.

Gasoline pump prices increased less than a penny on Friday to a national average of $3.789 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service.

Ongoing refining problems in the Midwest have pushed gasoline prices sharply higher in that part of the country. On Michigan the average retail price increased more than 8 cents overnight to $4.14 per gallon. Pump prices added nearly 7 cents at $3.94 in Ohio, and they were almost 6 cents higher in Illinois at $4.15 per gallon.

Meanwhile, the average price for a gallon of gas was only $3.50 in South Carolina, $3.61 in Missouri and $3.72 in Colorado.

In other Nymex trading for July contracts, heating oil added 1.28 cents to settle at $3.0567 per gallon and gasoline futures added 2.54 cents to settle at $2.9931 per gallon. Natural gas dropped 8.7 cents to settle at $4.707 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude gained 30 cents to settle at $115.84 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

What Determines Oil Prices?
Friday June 3, 2011

With each passing year, oil seems to play an even greater role in the global economy. In the early days, finding oil during a drill was considered somewhat of a nuisance as the intended treasures were normally water or salt. It wasn't until 1857 that the first commercial oil well was drilled in Romania. The U.S. petroleum industry was born two years later with an intentional drilling in Titusville, Pa.


While much of the early demand for oil was for kerosene and oil lamps, it wasn't until 1901 that the first commercial well capable of mass production was drilled at a site known as Spindletop in southeastern Texas. This site produced more than 10,000 barrels of oil per day, more than all the other oil-producing wells in the U.S. combined. Many would argue that the modern oil era was born that day in 1901, as oil was soon to replace coal as the world's primary fuel source. Oil's use in fuels continues to be the primary factor in making it a high-demand commodity around the globe, but how are prices determined?

The Determinants of Oil Prices
With oil's stature as a high-demand global commodity comes the possibility that major fluctuations in price can have a significant economic impact. The two primary factors that impact the price of oil are:


supply and demand
market sentiment
The concept of supply and demand is fairly straightforward. As demand increases (or supply decreases) the price should go up. As demand decreases (or supply increases) the price should go down. Sound simple?

Not quite. The price of oil as we know it is actually set in the oil futures market. An oil futures contract is a binding agreement that gives one the right to purchase oil by the barrel at a predefined price on a predefined date in the future. Under a futures contract, both the buyer and the seller are obligated to fulfill their side of the transaction on the specified date.

The following are two types of futures traders:


hedgers
speculators
An example of a hedger would be an airline buying oil futures to guard against potential rising prices. An example of a speculator would be someone who is just guessing the price direction and has no intention of actually buying the product. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the majority of futures trading is done by speculators as less than 3% of transactions actually result in the purchaser of a futures contract taking possession of the commodity being traded.

The other key factor in determining oil prices is sentiment. The mere belief that oil demand will increase dramatically at some point in the future can result in a dramatic increase in oil prices in the present as speculators and hedgers alike snap up oil futures contracts. Of course, the opposite is also true. The mere belief that oil demand will decrease at some point in the future can result in a dramatic decrease in prices in the present as oil futures contracts are sold (possibly sold short as well).

Price Cycle
Additionally, from a historical perspective, there appears to be a possible 29-year (plus or minus one or two years) cycle that governs the behavior of commodity prices in general. Since the beginning of oil's rise as a high-demand commodity in the early 1900s, major peaks in the commodities index have occurred in 1920, 1951 and 1980. Oil peaked with the commodities index in both 1920 and 1980. (Note: there was no real peak in oil in 1951 because it had been moving in a sideways trend since 1948 and continued to do so through 1968.) It is important to note that supply, demand and sentiment take precedence over cycles because cycles are just guidelines, not rules.

If one wishes to pursue his or her education of oil beyond this brief introduction, recommended educational material on oil can be obtained directly from OPEC. Information on the oil futures market can be obtained through the CME.

Conclusion
Unlike most products, oil prices are not determined entirely by supply, demand and market sentiment toward the physical product. Rather, supply, demand and sentiment toward oil futures contracts, which are traded heavily by speculators, play a dominant role in price determination. Cyclical trends in the commodities market may also play a role. Regardless of how the price is ultimately determined, based on its use in fuels and countless consumer goods, it appears that oil will continue to be in high demand for the foreseeable future.

Thursday, May 26, 2011...

•   July crude oil prices this morning are trading down -76 cents a barrel and July gasoline is -0.88 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday finished higher after US distillate supplies fell to a 2-year low and the OECD hiked its US growth estimate for this year: CLN11 +$1.73, RBN11 +2.87.

                Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in weekly distillate inventories which fell to a 2-year low (-2.04 million bbl to 141.1 million bbl versus expectations of a +50,000 bbl build), and (2) the action by the OECD to raise its 2011 US GDP estimate to 2.6% from a Nov estimate of 2.2%.

                Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly crude oil supplies (+616,000 bbl versus expectations of -1.7 million bbl), (2) the surge in weekly gasoline supplies by the most in 3 months (+3.79 million bbl versus expectations of +500,000 bbl), and (3) the larger-than-expected increase in the refinery utilization rate to its highest level in 4-1/2 months (+3.2 points to 86.3% versus expectations of +0.5 to 83.7%), which bodes well for further increases in fuel supplies as refiners come out of maintenance programs and boost production.

Friday, May 27, 2011...

•   July crude oil prices this morning are trading up +12 cents a barrel and July gasoline is up +0.15 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled mixed as refinery outages in the Midwest boosted gasoline but weaker-than-expected economic data undercut crude: CLN11 -$1.09, RBN11 +2.07. Jul gasoline rose to a 1-week high and Jul crude climbed to a 2-week high but crude shed its gains and closed lower.

                Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand in commodities, and (2) strength in gasoline on speculation that outages at 2 Illinois refineries owned by Marathon Oil and Exxon Mobil will reduce gasoline supplies during the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

                Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected US Q1 GDP, which signals reduced fuel consumption, and (2) the unexpected increase in weekly US initial jobless claims, which suggests labor market weakness that may lead to reduced fuel demand.