3SOF

Thanks for posting the news la-onda, you're saving me some work, let me applaud you 

Considering ELN, the plan is made, now trade the plan.

please read the link carefully, too much infos for posting everything here....

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.7b9a4a714abf7ee81035b8f32eb0fc86f2a43abb46bfec3e64190d277ada8d92


Elan Reports Second Quarter 2005 Financial Results

Thursday , July 28, 2005 02:30 ET

DUBLIN, Ireland, Jul 28, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) --Elan Corporation, plc today announced its second quarter 2005 financial results.

Commenting on Elan's business, Kelly Martin, Elan's president and chief executive officer, said, "We remain focused on executing our plans and realizing our goals of delivering benefits to all of our constituencies including patients, physicians and shareholders. This includes working with all regulatory agencies to determine the regulatory path forward for Tysabri, advancing our research and development pipeline, and in particular, our progress in Alzheimer's. We are advancing on multiple fronts, committed to pursuing a disciplined approach to managing costs and realizing revenue in our business. We will continue to balance the challenges of the short term against the significant growth and value creation opportunities for the long term."

Commenting on Elan's second quarter financial results, Shane Cooke, executive vice president and chief financial officer, said, "The loss for the quarter at $142.6m increased by 21% over 2004 principally because of the costs associated with Tysabri, a charge associated with retiring debt early and the disposal of products during 2004, compensated for by the strong growth in the rest of the business and reduced investment losses. The core business, excluding Tysabri, performed strongly with product revenues growing by 47% over last year." Mr Cooke added, "We are cautiously optimistic that with continued strong revenue growth and careful and disciplined cost management, this business, excluding Tysabri, will get to our target of break-even on an EBITDA basis, by the end of 2005. While we await the outcome of the ongoing Tysabri safety evaluation, we continue to prudently invest in Tysabri and remain capable and committed to re-introducing it as a therapeutic option for patients should it be appropriate. We also made progress with our capital structure during the quarter, retiring over $240m in 2008 debt while retaining over $1.15bn in cash.''

The analysis below is based on the revenues and costs from continuing operations presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

Net Loss and Adjusted EBITDA

The net loss for the second quarter of 2005 amounted to $142.6 million, an increase of 21% over the $117.6 million reported in the same quarter of 2004, principally because of the costs associated with Tysabri(TM), (see Appendix II for an analysis of the results broken out between Tysabri and rest of business), a charge associated with retiring debt early and the disposal of products during 2004, compensated for by the strong growth in the rest of the business and reduced investment losses.

Negative Adjusted EBITDA was $58.7 million in the second quarter of 2005, compared to $45.7 million in the second quarter of 2004, and included negative Adjusted EBITDA of $38.2 million related to Tysabri. Adjusted EBITDA for the rest of the business, excluding costs related to Tysabri, is targeted to get to breakeven by the end of 2005 and was negative $20.5 million in the second quarter of 2005 after including $8.0 million in litigation settlement costs. A reconciliation of negative Adjusted EBITDA to net loss from continuing operations, is presented in the table titled "Unaudited Non-GAAP Financial Information - EBITDA" included on page 3.

As previously announced on February 28, 2005, Elan and Biogen Idec, Inc. (Biogen Idec) voluntarily suspended Tysabri from the U.S. market and all ongoing clinical trials based on reports of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare and potentially fatal, demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. Elan and Biogen Idec's comprehensive safety evaluation concerning Tysabri is ongoing. The results of this safety evaluation, which we expect to complete by the end of the summer, will then be discussed with regulatory agencies to determine the appropriate risk benefit profile and the path forward for Tysabri.

Revenue

Total revenue increased 9% to $118.6 million in the second quarter of 2005 from $108.4 million in the second quarter of 2004, principally due to an increase of 47% in product revenue from the core business, offset by reduced revenue from divested products and contract revenue. Revenue is analyzed below between product revenue generated from the core business, revenue arising from products that have been divested and contract revenue.

Product Revenue

Total product revenue for the second quarter of 2005 of $111.6 million increased 19% from $93.4 million recorded in the same quarter of 2004 primarily as a result of an increase of 47% in product revenue from the core business, offset by reduced revenue from divested products.

Revenue from marketed products

Revenue from marketed products was $55.2 million in the second quarter of 2005, compared to $35.6 million recorded in the same period of 2004. The increase primarily reflects increased sales of Maxipime and Azactam.

As previously reported, we experienced third party supply shortages with Maxipime during the early part of 2005. As a result of inventory shortages, Maxipime prescription volume demand for April and May of 2005 decreased by 3%, compared to the same period in 2004. However, prescription volume demand has increased by 24% for the first five months ended May 31, 2005, compared to the same period in 2004. Revenue for the second quarter of 2005 increased from $26.5 million in the second quarter of 2004 to $39.9 million, or 51%, which resulted from a combination of supply shortages in the second quarter of 2004, increased demand for the first five months ended May 31, 2005 and re-stocking of wholesaler inventory following the supply shortages in the first quarter of 2005. We will continue to closely monitor the supply level for Maxipime.

Azactam prescription volume demand for April and May of 2005 increased by 14%, compared to the same period of 2004, while revenue for the quarter increased from $9.1 million to $14.8 million, or 63%. Changing wholesaler inventory levels primarily explains the difference between Azactam prescription growth rate and revenue growth in the second quarter of 2005. Azactam loses patent exclusivity in October 2005 and we anticipate generic competition will have an impact on sales of Azactam from the end of the year.

Prialt, a new treatment for severe chronic pain, was approved in the U.S. in December 2004 and launched in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2005. Revenue from Prialt for the second quarter of 2005 was $1.8 million, compared to $1.0 million in the first quarter of 2005.

Gross Profit

The gross profit margin on product revenue was 64% in the second quarter of 2005, compared to 57% in the same period of 2004. The increase was due principally to the change in the mix of sales and cost management.

Thanks for posting the earnings report la-onda 

I believe the right approach to ELN's results should be: anything positive is good for the stock. If you see something negative (and you'll probably see many negatives, specially on year over year comparisons), you must remember where the stock was trading at the same time last year.

There are two big positives:

1) «Total revenue increased 9% to $118.6 million in the second quarter of 2005 from $108.4 million in the second quarter of 2004».

2) «The gross profit margin on product revenue was 64% in the second quarter of 2005, compared to 57% in the same period of 2004.»

I don't know how the market will react to the results but I know what I will do, whatever the circumstances. And that is to follow my pre-set trading plan, that says:

1) Hold the stock as long as it closes above the ascending trendline which today will stand at $7.41.
2) Take profits at the technical target of an hypothetic breakout, at $11.8.

ELN came down after the earnings release on profit taking yesterday, but the low of the day was exactly the ascending trendline support I've been talking about, at $7.43 yesterday.

For today the ascending trenline is coming at $7.47, if ELN is set to close below this line I will be forced, by the discipline of following a trading plan, to take a small loss ...

I see the stock is trading at $7.36 now, but I don't care about intraday indications, only the close will tell if the trendline was really broken or not. A lot of money is left on Wall Street from precipitation on trading decisions.

fyi:
Market Scan
Elan Still Faces Considerable Uncertainty On Tysabri
07.29.05, 12:42 PM ET

Morgan Stanley reiterated an "underweight" rating on Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ), saying considerable uncertainty still exists around the future of Tysabri, the company's multiple sclerosis treatment.

"We still believe there is significant risk that Tysabri never returns to the market," Morgan Stanley said. The research firm said Elan and partner Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ) have to conduct long-term studies to get the product back on the market, and that if the product does return, safety concerns may minimize its impact on earnings.

Without Tysabri, the next catalyst for Elan would be positive news from the Alzheimer's Disease programs, "which still remain early stage," according to Morgan Stanley.

For the second quarter, Elan reported an operating loss per share of 35 cents, which was narrower by than Morgan Stanley's estimate by 3 cents. Revenues for the quarter grew 47% year-over-year as management focused more on its base business to drive growth.

Morgan Stanley says nothing new on that downgrade, nothing the market didn't know, that's why the stock is down from $27 in less than 6 months.

Technically ELN needs to rise 0.5% today for me to keep holding the stock ... that's the «problem» (or virtue?) of a technical trading plan based on an uptrend, the stock must keep rising for one to continue holding. I believe these are sound trading principles.

Spectacular reaction from ELN to the support line and the Morgan Stanley downgrade, with a 5.6% advance day. The upper limit of the ascending triangle is in sight, at $8.42. If we break that, the technical target of that breakout would be $11.8.

Support line today will be at $7.58.

david, if you don't mind, can you tell me which company's chart do you use?
i  use  stockcharts.com.  between yours and mine, i found a little difference for support
line when i put the lines for ascending triangle. please help me which charts is better to use.

stockcharts.com, bigcharts.com, yours, all lilttle different,

b. regards,

Quote from: swinstar on August 02, 2005, 07:14:07 PM
david, if you don't mind, can you tell me which company's chart do you use?
i use stockcharts.com. between yours and mine, i found a little difference for support
line when i put the lines for ascending triangle. please help me which charts is better to use.

stockcharts.com, bigcharts.com, yours, all Little different,

b. regards,

Hello swinstar, I use the Metastock software, and no website can beat its charts and possibilities. You have explorers, filters, system testers, you name it. It's an amazing software that I own since 1996 (of course it had updates) and my love for it grows everyday.

But those differences between the lines probably are due to the scale used on the charts. For instance, stockscharts.com always uses the semi-log scale, and my chart has a normal scale. If the difference is very little it is probably because we draw the line just a bit different, but that's not important, the market is not mathematics, so one should see a clear break on close to take conclusions.

For today my ascending support for ELN stands at $7.60 and the horizontal resistance level is at $8.42.

thanks for your answer! 

As a large investor in Elan, I thought I would highlight for you a message board that I have found the best Elan information time and time again.  It is called the STock Arena and it is a board that is focused on quality.  I believe though that chart analysis would be a great addition to the board!  Life Time Membership is just 1 dollar and the site gives away cash prizes over 20,000 a year.  It is a great 1 dollar spent.  Check it out.
http://www.stockarena.com/?r=529

Thanks for the info rk4283, we don't mind sharing info about other boards and websites, since we believe ours is, or will be, the best 

We don't have many features, but we make the game simple and make money consistently, and most important, we show how we do it.

Considering ELAN, I don't want to know more about it, I believe the market always knows better, and my mind must be always set to follow a trading plan.

The trading plan is to hold ELAN as long as it closes above the ascending support line which today will stand at $7.65. My hope is the stock breaks the ascending triangle on the upside (stocks usually do this) and that would give me a price target of more than $11. 

Just keep the plan on ELN, support for today will be at $7.70, resistance at $8.42.

ELN closed a tick below support, but after hours it was about 1% below the ascending trendline. It looks like the general market weakness is getting to most stocks (off course  ).

I'll take a 1 or 2% loss on ELN at Monday's open.

My reading on ELN is: it formed a double top nd is going down to $6.25 level. It fundamental does not support it as an $8 stock short term. Unless its drug has been proved safe, don't see it has much up potential.

Let us look its development.

I may be wrong but I will not gamble on it.