3SOF

seems like me selling at 7 wasn't that bad after all.
Will keep an eye on this one ..

what about you Melf? still in?

nice summarization about open questions from yahoo board:

Despite Cheng's assurances...
by: stockhunter2004    08/05/05 02:14 am
Msg: 23075 of 23077

"Forecasting the sector outlook for this quarter, ChipMOS chairman and CEO SL Cheng indicated that strong foundry orders signaled a positive trend for testing and packaging vendors. Together with the traditional hot season impact, ChipMOS is confident about this quarter's financial performance."

What does this mean? Of course Q3 will be higher than Q2, but will it meet guidance? Will the increased revenues be enough to cover the increased overhead?

Despite Cheng's assurances, I have concerns...

* Business may be softer than managment admits. In addition to the "soft July" comment and Shanghai delay, there are other signs of business weakening. The percent capacity reported by IMOS for its long terms contracts has decreased over the last two quarters from 57% in Q3/04 to 44% in Q1/05 and now 35% reported at RBC. This decline is at odds with increasing market demand and increasing capacity from new facilities.

* Overhead from large capital expenditures for new facilities in Shanghai will increase the risk of unused capacity. Overhead is fixed and cannot be reduced if customer orders are "soft." Comparing Q4 to Q3 of 2004, income margins dropped from 9% to 3% with a decrease in revenues of just $10M per quarter, which suggests that if quarterly revenues fall below $106M IMOS quarterly earnings will go negative. With the new facilities coming on line in China, the overhead will push that quarterly minimum even higher.

* High concentration of revenues from a few customers increases the market risk. The top five customers generated 67% of revenues in Q1/05, up from about 57% in Q1-Q3 '04. The largest customer, ProMos represented almost 30% in Q1-Q3 '04 (no recent data). If only one of these customers were to fail or change their testing and assembly vendor, it could signficantly affect IMOS profitability.

* It is not clear what, if any, contingency plan IMOS has to mitigate the costs of excess capacity in the event of an inevitable market downturn. Isn't that why manufacturers outsource testing and assembly?

* Institutions are recent owners of IMOS, increasing ownership from 4% to 20% since January. Most are probably about breakeven here and may not want to risk a loss if they think management will miss on earnings for 2006. Institutions are sensitive to errors in financial guidance and more likely to sell if management loses credibility.

* Management asserts that Shanghai gives IMOS a "first-mover" competitive advantage. However, to maintain operations there, it must invest another $157M by the end of 2007. In order to do so, the company will need to raise money.

* Management has requested the authorization of 75 million blind preferred. Presumably, they plan to raise money for Shanghai and other new equipment. If a they raise $75-150 million, that would dilute the shares by 10-23 million shares (assuming pps of $6.60-7.50). Issuance of 10M shares will result in a total outstanding shares of 77.5M and automatically reduce the 2006 EPS from $1.03 to less than $.90. If there are more than 10M new shares, EPS will be reduced further.

The biggest reason to invest in IMOS is because the forward PE is only 6-7 based on EPS of $1.03 in 2006. The question is can IMOS achieve $1.03 EPS in 2006? If the EPS were reduced to $.50 in 2006, the PE would doubles to 12-14 and the stock does not looks so cheap. If excess capacity in 2006 sends the earnings into negative territory, all bets are off.

Link:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1601702889&tid=imos&sid=1601702889&mid=23075

Quote from: nikao on August 05, 2005, 04:24:05 AM
seems like me selling at 7 wasn't that bad after all.
Will keep an eye on this one ..

what about you Melf? still in?

No, Nikao, I sold it for 6.90 when it took out Monday's6.91  low.  7.7% loss.  Very disappointing after the mid-July breakout above an eight-month Ascending Triangle, particularly with its competitor, ASTSF, still above its July breakout.  Remember when I said that I felt like I was riding the wrong horse?  I was.   

I will wait for offical number before reentering, still on my radar.

RBC update:

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1601702889&tid=imos&sid=1601702889&mid=23209&um=52&.sig=QnedxKCk7IvXBLnb.Euxng--

Hmmm... Q2 is here: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050818/hkth004.html?.v=9

I had hoped that the increased in Capacity utilization and initiatives to increase efficiencies would be reflected in the bottom line. Instead they post a EPS of 0.04. A lot of excuses for the disappointing result but nothing concrete.

I don't know how the market will react on the result but IMOS is now off my watch list. There are so many other great companies out there so why waste my time on IMOS?

very disappointing 
also off my watchlist
you have checked ECST?

Hi Oliver,

Had a look at ECST and didn't like what I saw. Revenue increased with only 6% in Q2. Order size goes down and advertising spend goes up.....

EPS (ttm) -0.75 not my kind of stock - sorry

It was a quick look though so if you know better please tell me!

IMOS update:
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=00000000000000000000000000003746&query=CHIPMOS

BO ??

updated chart:

1.)
IMOS: RBC Capital Cuts to Sector Perform from Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $7 vs $9; Analyst Notes
Thursday , November 03, 2005 07:19 ET
Issuer: ChipMOS Technologies Bermuda LTD (NasdaqNM: IMOS)
Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Outperform)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $7.00 (-22.22% from $9.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm's checks indicate that DDR2 volumes remain weak and that firm believes the DDR2 memory transition is a 2006 story. They are lowering their Q4 est to 15c/$124M from 19c/$139.7M.

2.)
IMOS: Announces Conversion Price Change in $75M PIPE
Friday , November 04, 2005 11:54 ET
ChipMOS Technologies Bermuda LTD (NasdaqNM: IMOS) has announced in a press release that it has notified the The Bank of New York, Trustee to its Indenture, dated November 3, 2004, that the conversion price has been adjusted from US$7.85 per common share to US$6.28 per common share, with effect from November 3, 2005.

downtrend IMO

ChipMOS REPORTS NOVEMBER 2005 REVENUE

Hsinchu, Taiwan, December 16, 2005 – ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. ("ChipMOS" or "the Company") (Nasdaq: IMOS) today reported its unaudited consolidated revenue for the month of November 2005.

Revenue for the month of November 2005 was NT$1,424.2 million or US$42.5 million, an increase of 4% from NT$1,373.9 million or US$41.0 million for the month of October 2005 and an increase of 20% from NT$1,184.5 million or US$35.4 million for the same period in 2004. (All translations from NT dollars to U.S. dollars were made at the exchange rate of NT$33.50 against US$1.00 as of November 30, 2005.)

ChipMOS' November 2005 consolidated revenue included revenues of ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC., ChipMOS Japan Inc., ChipMOS U.S.A., Inc., ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (H.K.) Limited, ChipMOS Logic TECHNOLOGIES INC., CHANTEK ELECTRONIC CO., LTD., Modern Mind Technology Limited and its wholly-owned subsidiary ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Shanghai) LTD., and ThaiLin Semiconductor Corp.

IMOS has crossed the 50 EMA line today!
Please check SPIL BO also...

cheers
Oliver

IMOS: Short Interest UP 37.2% to 1.3M in Dec 2005
Tuesday , December 27, 2005 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for ChipMOS Technologies Bermuda LTD (NasdaqNM: IMOS) INCREASED 37.2% to 1,275,812 shares for the month ended mid-December, 2005.

SYMBOL          NOVEMBER        DECEMBER          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
IMOS             929,779       1,275,812        +346,033       +37.22%           4

Based on IMOS's 20-day average daily share volume of 373,349, it would require approximately 4 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


updated chart:

IMOS Earnings Preview: Two Analysts Say Outperform
Friday , March 10, 2006 15:48 ET

ChipMOS Tech (IMOS), a semiconductor testing and packaging firm, is slated to report Q4 earnings on March 13th after the market closes. The Company is the "Tail End Charley" when it comes to semi equipment industry earnings. Other semi test and/or packaging firms have reported generally boffo results for Q4. However, IMOS has a spotty history with respect to the EPS estimate, and already reported revenue is light. Two analysts reiterated their OP ratings for IMOS this week. Q4 estimate is 18c vs. 5c last year. 2005 estimate is 52c vs. 84c last year.

Bulls Say:

--- Revenue and EPS growth: The Multex mean Q4 EPS estimate is 18c vs. 5c last year. 2006 full year Multex EPS estimate is 83c/sh for fwd P/E of 8.6.

--- The Semi Cap Equipment industry is producing a lot of earnings surprises.
Below are some Q4 results illustrating the strength of the bounceback in the Dec quarter.
+ BRKS (automation products) reported 2c (adj); 6c above the Multex estimate (Dec)
+ API (wafers, testing, OEM products) reported 1c on 69% revenue growth.
+ ACLS (equipment) reported 1c, 4c better than the Multex est. (Dec)
+ AMKR (packaging, testing) reported 30c, 150% above the 12c Multex est (Dec)
+ ASTSF (testing) reported 26c, 60% above the 15c Multex est (Dec)
+ COHU (testing) reported 53c, 29% above the 41c Multex est (Dec)
+ FORM (testing) reported 25c, 25% above the 20c Multex est (Dec)
+ UTEK (lithography) reported 10c (adj), 150% above the 4c Multex est (Dec)
+ PLAB (photomasks) reported 23c; 8c above the Multex estimate (Jan qtr).

--- IMOS: Value stock.
Price/Tangible Book Value: 1.56
Cash/Share: 42.57
P/Sales: 0.98.
Est 2005 PE ratio: 13.9
Adj Price of Mkt - Cash = 4.68
Adj est 2005 PE ratio: 9.0
Est EPS Growth Rate: 25%
Adj PEG: 9/25 or 0.36

--- FBR reiterated its Outperform rating for IMOS yesterday, target price $9. 

--- T. Weisel reiterated is OP rating with an 82c 2006 EPS estimate and $10 tgt.

Bears Say

--- IMOS has already reported Q4 revenue of $119.8 million (Dec 30 exchange rate), BELOW the $130 million Multex estimate.

--- IMOS has missed the Multex mean quarterly EPS in 3 of the last 5 quarters.

--- IPOs signal semi manufacturing equipment have had their run.Two chip test equipment firms are cashing out via IPOs this month. Eagle Test Systems (EGLT) went public at $15.50/sh this week. An early investor, private equity firm TA Associates, will take 76% of the offering proceeds. The CEO and founder of the 30-year-old company sold 370,000 shares in the offering. Nextest Systems is expected to float its IPO later this month.

--- Feb 27 report:  Amkor (AMKR) to Commence Wafer Bumping in Singapore with start-up projected for the second half of this year. This puts AMKR into competition with IMOS.

--- Analysts disagree on outlook for industry.
+ AMAT: CIBC ups Applied Materials to OP from SP.
(-) MTSN: CIBC Cuts to Sector Perform from Outperform; $9 tgt.
(-) AMAT,KLAC,ASTSF: Pacific Crest cut KLA Tencor to Sec Perform.
(-) NVLS,AMKR: Pacific Crest cut Novellus and Amkor to Underperform from MP, citing peaking capex spending.

ChipMOS REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2005 RESULTS

Hsinchu, Taiwan, March 14, 2006 – ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. ("ChipMOS" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: IMOS) today reported unaudited consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended December 31, 2005.  All U.S. dollar figures in this release are based on the exchange rate of NT$32.85 against US$1.00 as of December 30, 2005. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2005 was NT$4,282.9 million or US$130.4 million, an increase of 16% from NT$3,678.7 million or US$112.0 million for the same period in 2004.  On a consolidated basis, the gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2005 was 31%, compared to 23% for the same period in 2004.  Net income for the fourth quarter of 2005 was NT$475.8 million or US$14.5 million, and NT$7.03 or US$0.21 per common share, compared to net income of NT$106.4 million or US$3.2 million, and NT$1.59 or US$0.05 per common share, for the same period in 2004.
Revenue for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2005 was NT$15,214.0 million or US$463.1 million, an increase of 1% from NT$15,035.8 million or US$457.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2004. On a consolidated basis, the gross margin for the full year of 2005 was 26%, compared to 28% for the full year of 2004. The decrease in gross margin in 2005 was primarily due to low utilization rates in the first quarter of 2005. Net income for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2005 was NT$928.2 million or US$28.3 million, and NT$13.74 or US$0.42 per common share, compared to net income of NT$1,675.9 million or US$51.0 million, and NT$26.54 or US$0.81 per common share, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2004.  The impact of impairment loss of fixed assets and goodwill that the Company recognized in 2005 was approximately NT$4.41 or US$0.13 per common share.  Full year results were also impacted by higher tax expenses and costs associated with the Company's interest in bonuses paid by subsidiaries.
The unaudited consolidated financial results of ChipMOS for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year ended December 31, 2005 included the financial results of ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC., ChipMOS Japan Inc., ChipMOS U.S.A., Inc., ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (H.K.) Limited, ChipMOS Logic TECHNOLOGIES INC. (which was merged into ThaiLin Semiconductor Corp. on December 1, 2005), CHANTEK ELECTRONIC CO., LTD. (which was merged into ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. on November 21, 2005), Modern Mind Technology Limited and its wholly-owned subsidiary ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Shanghai) LTD., and ThaiLin Semiconductor Corp.
S.J. Cheng, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ChipMOS, said, "We were able to deliver 12% growth in revenue for the fourth quarter of 2005, compared to the third quarter of 2005 even though we had some temporary revenue delays as a result of mergers involving two of our subsidiaries in the fourth quarter. This growth was primarily due to the higher utilization rates for both memory and LCD driver IC production lines as a result of strong end market demand and a price increase in LCDD resulting from tight backend capacity. We also continued building long-term customer relationships, with the recent announcement of our contract with Spansion LLC. With more and more companies increasingly outsourcing testing and assembly services, we are currently well positioned to meet the demand in the markets we serve."

S.K. Chen, Chief Financial Officer of ChipMOS, said, "We continued to maintain our controls on expense and capex to maximize our profits, while providing our customers with the superior service and engineering support.  Gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2005 was 31%, higher than previously expected due to higher utilization rates, an improved pricing environment and a favorable product mix.  We currently believe a gross margin at the high 20% level is sustainable as we focus on higher margin business, while benefiting from increased utilization rates.  We are also pleased with our ongoing ramp in China.  We are committed to this market and currently plan to invest an additional US$100 million in 2006.  We currently also plan to invest approximately US$140 million in support of our new business with Spansion LLC in 2006, and approximately US$60 million to US$80 million in support of our DDR II testing and 12" assembly capabilities.  Between US$50 million to US$100 million is expected to be invested in our routine capacity expansion on LCD driver IC in Taiwan.  While we currently expect 60% to 65% of our capex investments will occur in the first half of 2006 to meet existing demand levels, we remain very conservative and have no intention to invest more than we have to.  We do not plan to invest in areas not tied to specific customer programs."

Looking forward, Cheng, commented, "We remain cautiously optimistic about the market environments for the memory and LCD industries in 2006.  We currently expect to achieve significant revenue growth this year led by growth in our flash, DDR II DRAM, and LCD driver IC businesses. Notably, we currently do not expect any decrease in demand in 2006 based on current customer forecasts. While the first quarter is traditionally slower for the industry, order rates this year remain high in support of existing end market demand. As a result, based on current customer forecasts and based on the exchange rate of NT$32.85 against US$1.00, we currently expect revenue for the first quarter of 2006 will be in the range of approximately US$127 million to US$130 million, with gross margin on a consolidated basis approximately in the range of approximately 28% to 30%."

Imos now expect Q1 06 revenue about $130 million. Q1 05 IMOS revenue is about $100 million. This means IMOS revenue will grow about 30% this Q comparing with last year. Earning should raise at least 200% IMO.


updated factsheet:
http://www.shareholder.com/chipmos/downloads/factsheet.pdf