3SOF

CDE got a nice bullish chart with a reward /risk ratio of 7.68

buy level(today):        3.91
             target:         6.17 =3.62 + 2.55
               Stop:         3.62
Reward/risk ratio:        (6.17 - 3.91) / (3.91 - 3.62) = 7.68

CDE got already a previous thread

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=620.msg2660#msg2660

I find a another play for CDE and far more conservative

Buy level : 3.9
Target:     4.8
Stop:       3.55
Reward/Risk Ratio: (4.80 - 3.9) / (3.9 - 3.55) = 2.57

I think this graph is more accurate than the one before IMHO

Any opinions???

great stuff phab! (applaud) I like how you used the risk reward ratio.  I think the play is solid 

Nice work, Phabrux.  Applause.

My chart is  a little different from yours.  You have a March high of 4.47.  I show a March 9 high of 4.68, but I could have bad data (Reuters).  On my chart, CDE broke above the November, 2004 - March, 2005 down trendline yesterday by a little bit more than one penny. 

Pan American Silver (PAAS) had a similar breakout above its November, 2004 - March, 2005 down trendline on August 3.  You can see from the chart below, PAAS pulled back for a re-test of its Ascending Triangle breakout and for a re-test of its 200DMA, then headed higher Tuesday and yesterday.

From a search on CDE, I see that it showed up on David's exploration and filters on June 29 and July 11.  Yesterday, volume in CDE was higher than on both of those days, FWIW.

I like your 3.55 stop.  The up trendline of the Ascending Triangle was validated, so I view it as important support.  It comes in today, August 11, at 3.543.  It rises .01429 each day, so it will be 3.557 for August 12.   I wouldn't want to see a close below that trendline.

Thank you elitG and Melf_Elf for your kinds words.

Your comments are both very encouraging.

I enjoyed reading your chart Mel_Elf, and thanks for the info about PAAS.
It is nice to see that we all come up  with similar conclusions.

I love this generosity of details supply in your post to highlight the pattern hidding in the chart.
You do a great pedagogue, for those who are just stepping in to question how accurate could the TA be as a prediction tool.

Sorry for replying to yours posts so later but I was busy until  the end of the week!

Quote from: phabrux on August 13, 2005, 09:50:48 PM
I love this generosity of details supply in your post to highlight the pattern hidding in the chart.

Thanks, and I like the way you put that about patterns "hiding" in the chart.  Sometimes, I have to look at a chart for awhile to try to see different patterns that are "nested," or "hiding" within larger patterns.

CDE filled the breakaway gap yesterday, and put in a bullish hammer with the tail bouncing off the trendline re-test.  While I would have liked to have seen the gap left open, yesterday's candle looks fine.

If it doesn't take off higher from here, it might go back and test the Ascending Triangle breakout and fill single penny gap at 3.74 that wasn't quite filled when the Ascending Triangle broke out last week.

If we sell off/consolidate here, that would give the 50DMA time to making a bullish cross of the 200DMA.  The 50DMA (sorry, it's obscured by the purple up trendline) currently is at 3.57.  The 200DMA is at 3.76.

I'm buying CDE at today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

Details at the first update, today after the close.

(This recommendation was made by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire, and he will update this analysis everyday after the close until he sells the stock. The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is up 159% since inception on 28th of April 2005. 3 Stocks on Fire is a Community of stock traders and investors. Our 3630 members exchange trading ideas and strategies on our message boards everyday. We welcome you as a new member of the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please take 10 seconds to register and receive our free newsletter)

CDE had the same behaviour as GSS, opened on a gap up, breaking resistance, but couldn't hold on to those gains because there were a lot of people with big short term profits.

But, when it came down, it held $4.19, which was the previous resistance level, now support. So I think this advance phase for CDE will continue, I'm very bullish on gold and gold stocks and will continue to hold CDE for the foreseeable future.

CDE is more linked to silver than gold, as we can read on this statement:

«Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation is the world's largest primary silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Australia.»

I'm also bullish on Silver long term, perhaps even more than on gold (the percentage return on silver will probably be bigger than on gold).

CDE's CEO will be speaking on Friday:

Coeur CEO to Speak at Silver Summit

Technically the stock broke a descending trendline on the upside and now made a pullback to that trendline, previous resistance, now support. I will continue holding the stock.

QuoteTechnically the stock broke a descending trendline on the upside and now made a pullback to that trendline, previous resistance, now support.

Nice reaction to the new found support from CDE yesterday. Everything is fine on gold land.

CDE has the same consolidation pattern as other gold stocks that I own. No news or press releases to analize today. The technical picture suggests higher prices are coming for CDE.

CDE has a much clear technical picture than GSS. There is a symmetrical triangle that was broken on the upside. Now the descending trendline is acting as support as it should.

On Friday CDE opened at support and then rebounded a bit by the close. Support for today will be standing at $4.02.

CDE's CEO will speak today at a conference as you can read here: Coeur CEO to Speak at Denver Gold Show

I wouldn't like to see CDE close below $4.02 today. Perhaps I could give the stock some more room, since it has an ascending trendline below and I'm very bullish on gold. But I feel I need to be specially cautious now and protect capital at all costs. So the plan is to sell if the stock is set to close below $4.02. I shouldn't, and I can't, let losses grow at this market juncture.

Coeur d'Alene says '05 production on track
Mon Sep 26, 2005 04:18 PM ET
DENVER, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) expects to meet its 2005 target for 14 million ounces of silver production, Chief Executive Dennis Wheeler said on Monday.
Wheeler, in a presentation at the Denver Gold Forum, said the company could grow silver production 86 percent in coming years if its strategy went according to plan.
&
Coeur D'Alene says Bolivia project not at risk
Mon Sep 26, 2005 05:04 PM ET
DENVER, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) does not expect any problems with its permits or contracts for the key San Bartolome mine project in Bolivia despite recent political instability there, the company's chief executive said on Monday.
"We have our permits and I don't think the government would revisit that ... we have our contracts and I don't think the government would expect that the dynamics of those would change," Dennis Wheeler told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Denver Gold Forum here.



chart:

Thanks for your help la-onda, I appreciate it 

Great white marubozu yesterday from CDE, on volume above average. I will continue holding, I'm very bullish on Silver too.

Gold stocks measured by the $XAU index failed to confirm the highs made by the gold price. Also I'm suspicious it's not inflation ahead, but deflation, as the economy slows from here.

I don't want to own anything gold related now, I'm selling CDE at the open for a negligible loss, I was wrong when I bought it !