3SOF

hi guys iam new to this site but i have been trading for a while one of my better trades was holding ford from seven all the way up to 19 anyways i bought fcel towards the end of the day looks like its picking up steam and it can really run earnings were good and looks promising for the future i will look to add on strentgh in the am

technical breakout possible, whats your opinion Dave?

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?fcel

Board members comments are also appreciated

For several years I've been keeping an eye on FCEL.

I've traded it, but now I think time is coming to buy and hold for a while.

There has been a number of news items out lately about the company, but apart from this it's one of the better established fuel-cell makers around.

I'd be very glad if others would give their opinion on this stock - and if one of our wizzards could try to read the chart 

I see a cup-and-handle, but maybe I'm too optimistic/biased?

Cheers!

and have confirmed today, a new uptrend will begin.

I read an article on the Wall Street Journal on Sunday that talked about FCEL and yesterday's move convinced me to jump in; let's see how far up we go Miguel.

Suerte carnal.

this is another stock taking a 52 week low dive. i see gas prices going back up, with time this should get more attn. any thoughts. in at 6.32

"FCEL" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.   

Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$   

Making a new short term high on good volume.  Still alot of overhead resistance but speculation seems to be hitting some of the alternative energy stocks lately.

High volume breakout on ER last night.

One of the very few "explosive" stocks today.

More alternative energy.   

I would like to find some "newer" alternative energy stocks.  Maybe we can find the next FSLR. 

1. Business Description

FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL) engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of fuel cell power plants for electric power generation. Its core carbonate fuel cell products include Direct FuelCell and DFC Power Plants. The company's carbonate fuel cell products electrochemically produce electricity from hydrocarbon fuels, such as natural gas and biomass fuels. In addition, FuelCell Energy is developing hybrid products and planar solid oxide fuel cell technology products. The company's power plants generate approximately 200 million kWh of power using various fuels, including renewable wastewater gas, biogas from beer, and food processing, as well as natural gas and other hydrocarbon fuels. Its products serve various commercial and industrial customers, including wastewater treatment plants, hotels, manufacturing facilities, universities, hospitals, telecommunications/data centers, and government facilities, as well as grid support applications for utility customers. The company has operations in North America, Canada, Europe, Japan, and Korea. FuelCell Energy was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut.

2. History since IPO



Judging from the long term chart, I would say FCEL looks more like a technology, not an electricity company. Well, and it is, it is a technologically advanced way of producing electricity: http://www.fuelcellenergy.com/

So the stock had a huge bubble run in 1999/2000 and then it collapsed almost to the previous levels.

Here are historical charts for revenues and EPS, just to see if there was any relationship between these fundamental metrics and the stock's price:





Well, the stock had its biggest rise (1999/2000) when it went from being marginally profitable to a losing money company, so I guess we can say there's almost an inverse relationship between fundamentals and the stock price. It goes to show that everything is possible in bubble land, just in case that someday you get the "brilliant" idea of shorting a stock because it is overvalued ... it can always get 10 times more overvalued

On the lower part of the stock's chart you have those blue numbers, they are the # of shares outstanding, in millions, which you can also get from this link.

The share count has been rising 11% a year, on average, which is significant dilution. So far in 2007 it rose 28%.

FCEL's current market cap is $840 M, with 2007 revenue of $48 M and a net loss of ($68 M).

Using a "traditional" fundamental analysis method FCEL looks way, way overvalued. But we know this doesn't mean much for this stock. However, when in 1999 and 2000 FCEL rose 40 fold (incredible), the company didn't print all that many shares ... now bulls need to fight the company itself in pushing this stock higher, so I would say the chances of another spectacular bull run aren't as high as they were in 1999.

3. Short Term Chart



I want to know what caused points 1 and especially point 2 on the chart above:

1 -  FuelCell Energy Reports Third Quarter 2007 Results and Latest Accomplishments
PrimeNewswire (Wed, Aug 29)

2 - FuelCell Energy Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2007 Results and Latest Accomplishments
PrimeNewswire (Mon, Dec 10)

«``We are seeing very positive customer demand demonstrating our market leadership and the strong business environment for ultra-clean energy products,'' said R. Daniel Brdar, Chairman and CEO. ``This demand has resulted in very strong orders in 2007 and an excellent backlog level going into 2008.''»

«``Fuel cell technology is increasingly gaining traction with public policy makers, municipalities and industrial companies as an ultra-clean, reliable source of distributed energy. In addition to the positive trends that continue in our existing geographic markets, global mandates for clean energy will result in a significantly expanded addressable market for our products, domestically and internationally,'' commented Mr. Brdar.»

Technically, FCEL's chart is bullish.

4. General Conclusion

FCEL is a very interesting company, generating energy from renewable wastewater gas, biogas from beer and food processing as well as natural gas and other hydrocarbon fuels.

It is an alternative energy company and we know how this industry is very hot now, with oil above $90 a barrel and the global concerns about the environment.

I also appreciate the fundamental improvements FCEL has been making, both on the cost cutting and revenue growth side.

I guess FCEL should be valued in a similar way as a solar company is. Let's take FSLR as an example, it trades at 25 times next year's revenue estimates. FCEL trades at "just" 5 times fiscal 2008 average revenue estimate.

I kind of like FCEL because I'm not aware of many companies operating in its field of alternative energy, while the market is crowded with solar energy companies.

It's a pity the company has started diluting shareholders value in a big way ... it seems management wants to take advantage of the current "green hype". But if the proceeds from printing shares are used to achieve a higher EPS over the long term, so be it.

I'll keep studying FCEL but I have to say that my opinion on the stock improved as I went on in this analysis. I understand the company is overvalued by the usual metrics, but there's no doubt it operates in an extremely high demand and hot sector. Perhaps its hour to shine (from a fundamental standpoint) has come.

Good luck if you're holding or thinking of buying this one

FuelCell Energy Announces 16.2MW
Project Approvals in Connecticut
Monday's shortened session saw the classic Santa Claus Rally
unfold as a flurry of deals were announced with some being
merger and acquisitions. Alcoa announced a $2.7 billion sale
of its packaging and consumer business causing shares gain.
Merrill Lynch announced a sale of it middle market commerce
finance unit to General Electric for $3 billion. The Company
also announced that it would raise up to $6.2 billion in a private placement of
common stock with Temasek Holdings from Singapore. ArcelMittal also announced
two acquisitions, one in Austria with the other on Uruguay.
Another small cap energy company announced a new contract though it was met with limited
investor enthusiasm. FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL) is a world leader in the development and
production of stationary fuel cells for commercial, industrial, municipal and utility customers.
FuelCell Energy's ultra-clean and high efficiency DFC(r) fuel cells are generating power at over
50 locations worldwide.
On Monday, the Company announced that it would be increasing their locations by 3 more.
The Connecticut Department of Utility Control (DPUC) issued its draft decision approving 16.2
megawatts (MW) of projects incorporating six of the company's DFC3000 fuel cells. The final
decision by the DPUC was scheduled for January 9, 2008.
The projects approved were for a 9.0 MW DFC-ERG project which paired a 7.2MW DFC power
plant with a 1.8 MW pipeline turbo expander. A 4.8 MW project for Stamford Hospital which will
use 2 DFC3000 power plants in a combined heat and power application providing lower cost
thermal energy to the hospital as well as ultra-clean electricity to the utility grid. The third project
was a 2.4 MW for Waterbury Hospital which would use a DFC3000 power plant combined heat
and power application providing lower cost thermal energy to the hospital as well as electricity
to the grid.
The projects were noted as increasing their sales backlog by of 25 MW by over 50% when officially
approved. But shares didn't fare well following the announcement. Over the past month,
the stock has seen an increase in valuation from the $8.50 area to highs over $13 before closing
Monday at $10.04, down almost 22%.
Investors were disappointed the Connecticut DPUC only decided to approve 16.25 MW of FuelCell
Projects of the 109.2 MW total that were approved. Analysts had expected to see some
20+ MW in projects to gain approval.
In any event, for FuelCell Energy, these project approvals represent an important achievement
that represents an estimated $43 million in potential product sales under the 2003 Energy Act in
Connecticut. With other states approving renewable energy initiatives, the name could certainly
become one to follow over 2008. Investors would be wise to watch.

Thanks for posting the news/explanation for FCEL's sharp decline on Monday, la-onda.

QuoteInvestors were disappointed the Connecticut DPUC only decided to approve 16.25 MW of FuelCell Projects of the 109.2 MW total that were approved. Analysts had expected to see some
20+ MW in projects to gain approval.

What seemed to be a breakaway gap was closed on heavy volume of 6.6 million shares. I admit that I don't fully understand the nature of FCEL's business ... I wasn't aware that this decision would be announced or that it was so crucial for investors.

I'll keep studying FCEL on the sidelines.

We know now the following news made FCEL fall 59% in just two and a half months:

«Investors were disappointed the Connecticut DPUC only decided to approve 16.25 MW of FuelCell Projects of the 109.2 MW total that were approved. Analysts had expected to see some
20+ MW in projects to gain approval.»

The stock was very overvalued to begin with (as one can read in my initial analysis), so any disappointment, even if it was a small one, had a material negative impact on the share price.

FCEL has initiated a recovery phase ... I still don't understand the business very well.

FuelCell Energy announces POSCO Power orders 25.6 megawatts of its energy (FCEL) 7.96 : Co announces that POSCO Power, a South Korean independent power producer, has ordered 25.6 MW of FuelCell Energy Power Plants and fuel cell modules. The order more than doubles FCEL's product backlog and represents nearly $70 mln of sales scheduled for delivery in 2009.