3SOF

Okay, since my last post, I decided from a fundamental perspective that this one is really going to go places, and I want to be in with it, so on Friday I bought in at $6.50, as this seemed like the bottom of the current retracement and a good place to get in.

However, since then I have had a closer look at the charts, and I am not too sure what is in store for DNDN over the next cuople of weeks   (then again, can you ever be?)

Overall, as has been pointed out previously, the trend is bullish, with a strong, longterm ascending trendline directing this one along its way.  However, this stands quite far below the current value, presently around $5.45, which represents quite a bit of downside. 

In the short term, we have a steep ascending trendline, which we have come back down to meet, and it looks like we have got a bounce off this, which is good    However...

as can been seen in the retracement from the last peak, there were several small gains, even as it eventually retraced back to the long term support line.  This may be a normal pattern, and I think that it may well play out once again, especially given the short position on DNDN.  In addition, while the MACD is still up, it's just crossed over the 9 EMA, which has previously confirmed the retracement back to support. 

While we could still get a small rally towards $7.00 for a short gain, I think we are going to see more downside below $6.50 soon (esp. after AH pullback today), which is frustrating, because I want to be in this one when the news on their approval comes out and things get silly, but I also don't want to hold it at this level if all I can see is downside from here.

I know that others on this board have more patience than me and are holding this (possibly from a much lower level), no matter what.  I would appreciate any comments/suggestions on my reading of this situation and what to do.  At present my plan is to hold as long as we are above the sharp trendline and sell tomorrow (today) if it looks like we will close below it. 

Then it is just a matter of keeping an eye on it until it pulls back to long term support, and hoping I don't miss out

What a game, here's the chart:

ctic 3.13 +1.01 on the day based on phase 2 trials of one of its drugs and effects of prolonging life in women.  Do you think it could run more?  jan 07 calls at 0.95 might be attractive.  can i get expert opinion?  thanxs a bunch.

up more than 50% on 31x volume!

News this morning created a nice little run.

XYOTAX(TM) Significantly Prolongs Survival Among Women With Advanced Lung Cancer
9/27/05     

Third Clinical Trial Provides Further Evidence of Survival Advantage in Women Reported in the STELLAR 3 and 4 Studies

NEW YORK, Sept 27, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --

At a presentation at the UBS Global Life Sciences Conference, Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI) (Nasdaq: CTIC; MTAX: CTIC) presented new results from a recently completed phase II clinical trial of XYOTAX in the first-line treatment of men and women with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In that single arm study, known as PGT202, the 35 women who received XYOTAX plus carboplatin had a 36 percent probability of living at least 1 year compared to only 16 percent in the 39 men receiving the same regimen. A pooled analysis of XYOTAX treated patients from STELLAR 3, STELLAR 4 and the PGT202 trial demonstrated a statistically significant (p=0.004) survival advantage for women treated when compared to men, with women having a 39 percent probability of surviving at least 1 year compared to 25 percent of men (HR =1.37, log rank p = 0.014 N = 463 patients). The Company previously reported that in a combined analysis of STELLAR 3 and 4, women treated with XYOTAX survived significantly longer than women treated on the standard chemotherapy control arms of these studies.

"To the best of our knowledge this is the first time a drug therapy for advanced lung cancer has consistently demonstrated such a strong survival advantage for women compared to men or compared to women randomized to treatment with standard chemotherapy," noted Jack W. Singer, M.D., Chief Medical Officer at CTI. "We are currently evaluating the effect of estrogen on the metabolism of XYOTAX in normal and cancerous tissues to provide mechanistic support for these important clinical results."

In August, CTI outlined its plans to file a New Drug Application (NDA) in the United States and a Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) in Europe in 2006 based on the results of its Stellar 3 and 4 trials.

About Lung Cancer in Women

Several studies have indicated that compared to men, women who smoke are more likely to develop lung cancer at a younger age and at lower levels of exposure to cigarette smoke. Non-smoking women are at higher risk for developing lung cancer than non-smoking men. Research has focused on the influence of genetic differences between men and women and on the role of estrogen to explain these findings. Estrogen enhances the effects of carcinogens in the environment and in smoke, possibly leading to a higher risk for NSCLC and once it occurs, appears to enhance its development. Since women have higher levels of estrogen than men, and younger women have higher levels of estrogen than older women, this may in part be responsible for their higher risk for NSCLC. Developing therapies that are favorably influenced by estrogen may provide a gender-targeted therapeutic approach to the treatment of NSCLC.

About Lung Cancer

According to the American Cancer Society, lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women and results in more deaths per year than colorectal, breast, prostate, liver, and kidney cancers combined. Nearly 60 percent of people with lung cancer die within one year of their diagnosis and nearly 75 percent die within 2 years; figures which have not improved in 10 years. Lung cancer is expected to kill nearly twice as many women as breast cancer this year.

About XYOTAX

XYOTAX (paclitaxel poliglumex) is a pharmaceutical that links paclitaxel, the active ingredient in Taxol(R), to a biodegradable polyglutamate polymer, which results in a new chemical entity. Blood vessels in tumor tissue, unlike blood vessels in normal tissue, are porous to molecules like polyglutamate. Based on preclinical studies, it appears that XYOTAX is preferentially trapped in the tumor blood vessels allowing significantly more of the dose of chemotherapy to localize in the tumor.

About Cell Therapeutics, Inc.

Headquartered in Seattle, CTI is a biopharmaceutical company committed to developing an integrated portfolio of oncology products aimed at making cancer more treatable. For additional information, please visit www.cticseattle.com.

Hey Catrader, sorry about starting another thread on CTIC...i did a search on the main message board and this thread didn't come up.

Just to let everyone know..there was aftermarket trading as well.

i will send Rams a msg to merge.

thanks

julia

Quote from: gmarc66 on September 27, 2005, 11:30:50 PM
Hey Catrader, sorry about starting another thread on CTIC...i did a search on the main message board and this thread didn't come up.

Just to let everyone know..there was aftermarket trading as well.

i will send Rams a msg to merge.

thanks

julia

julia,

no problem.  sometimes you have to do search twice.  i done that a couple of times, for some reason the first search don't come up with anything but when do it again it does.

It's up some and moving pre-market.

Don't see any new news...so, seems like the price surge continues

Did u get in catrader?

good luck

julia

well bought a few jan 2.5 calls for 0.75 so yeah in, go ctic!

The way this stock has reacted  the last few days makes me think that it might be ready to pop.  DNDN announced plans to file its NDA/new drug application.  UBS (and even Cramer  )  has taken shots at the stock, and it gets a regular late afternoon walk-down in price, but it keeps creeping up the chart.  Mid-Sept. it blew through the 200 day MA and  has stayed and seems to have a nice trend. 

On Oct. 3, DNDN announced that final results of its second Phase 3 study (D9902A) of Provenge® will be presented during a late-breaking clinical trials session at the ECCO 13 congress, Europe's preeminent cancer research conference, in Paris from October 30 to November 3.  Dendreon announced top-line results of the D9902A study in July.  I cannot imagine a hurry-up trip to present unless DNDN thinks that the data betters (or certainly at least equals) the earlier results.   

DNDN has had some false starts, but this looks different.  David, if you had time to look at this one, it would be greatly appreciated!

I sold out of this last week, which in hindsight was not the best move, but what can you do??  I believe it was because it broke my ascending trendline, which then acted as resistance, and I didn't like the look of that.

Anyway, I believe that you could well be right, although resistance at $7 exerted its influence quite strongly today, once again indicating the power of the sellers on this one.  But the big news is surely in the works and I like the positive news trickling out.

As the previous sharp ascending support line was broken, this now appears to also be acting as resistance, but this won't matter after today as it has crossed the strong resistance level at 7.00.

I am not entirely sure what to expect here in the short term.  I would like to see it close near 7.00, but seeing as it has touched that level, it could also retrace back to 6.50.  Solid news, or the very strong expectation of it is the only thing that will break it through.  I will monitor this one every day from now on, and look for a good buy point, sooner rather than later.  A close above $7 and we should push the next resistance in a snap.  There is no question (barring bad news) that this one has got to go on fire, and pretty soon given yoour previous post.

I'll leave you with the chart

Thanks Scottish.  Another crappy day today....  For those who have never seen it  before, I post below an old Motley Fool (yes, I am a fool reading fools  ) article.
_______
Dendreon a Rule Breaker?

By Karl Thiel (TMF Breaker Thiel)
May 3, 2005

The following is part of our week-long Rule Breaker series, where we Foolishly examine several companies and ask, "Is it a Rule Breaker?" Hey, even better, we'll answer the question for you.

But then I asked about Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN), and his expression changed. "I actually own that personally," he said. "I've got to admit, I'm a believer."

That's Dendreon in a nutshell. In working to bring the first therapeutic cancer vaccine to market, the company has faced numerous unknowns and challenges. At this stage, it has produced a fair bit of data that investors can use to size up the firm's prospects, but ultimately, you're either a believer or you're not. Investors tend to be passionate about Dendreon, so there are a lot of fervent supporters and detractors -- 23% of its shares are sold short.

I'm also a believer in Dendreon. Having followed the company for some time, I finally bought shares earlier this year. But is it a Rule Breaker, a company that not only promises tremendous growth potential but also has fundamental characteristics that make it a worthy investment on something more than faith?

Most of the potential Rule Breakers my colleagues are discussing this week (we're sizing up more than a half-dozen companies for their Rule Breaking potential) are clear innovators that have already made their mark on the world. The question for them is whether there is enough juice left in these maturing companies to justify paying premium growth-stock prices.

In many ways, Dendreon poses the opposite problem. It may simply be too risky for anything other than "mad money."

Anatomy of a renegade
Dendreon is best known for Provenge, an experimental treatment for prostate cancer. Provenge is a vaccine, but not in the sense that it inoculates patients against illness (it is only given to people who have advanced disease). Instead, Provenge uses antigen from the cancer itself to stimulate greater of production of T cells by the body to attack the cancer. Companies such as Cell Genesys (Nasdaq: CEGE), Antigenics (Nasdaq: AGEN), CancerVax (Nasdaq: CNVX), Biomira (Nasdaq: BIOM), Geron (Nasdaq: GERN), and others are all developing cancer vaccines based on some variation of this strategy, but there are as yet no cancer vaccines on the market.

Dendreon, like some of the other companies mentioned above, has made it to phase 3 testing of its product -- the last stage before an approval decision. But while CancerVax, for instance, recently discontinued a trial because it didn't produce evidence of a therapeutic benefit, and Antigenics is still awaiting the moment of truth (and struggling with the FDA over whether the drug used in its earlier clinical trials will be judged acceptable for evaluation), Dendreon has simply produced ambiguous results.

The company has designed three phase 3 studies: D9901, D9902A, and D9902B. In the first of these, D9901, Provenge failed to meet its primary endpoint of slowing disease progression. That's bad. Down went the stock -- from $9 the day before the first interim analysis was announced to $5 the next day, and thereafter as low as $1.26. But as follow-ups continued, Dendreon established that Provenge significantly extended the lives of some of the people who took the drug. That's good. The stock went over $10 per share after the first interim survival results were announced and peaked above $16 per share after more detailed survival results were released.

When D9901 failed to meet its primary endpoint, researchers at Dendreon combed through the data, as is common in such situations, to see if there were some patients who did better on the drug than others. They discovered that Provenge significantly extended the time-to-disease progression in patients with a Gleason score (a measure of the severity of prostate cancer) of 7 or less.

Seeking to confirm this benefit, Dendreon redesigned its second ongoing phase 3 trial, then called D9902. They halted further enrollment in D9902 and called this truncated study group D9902A. After consulting with the FDA, Dendreon pursued a new study named D9902B, enrolling only patients with a Gleason score of 7 or less.

Still with me? Fast-forward to 2005, when interim results of D9902A came out. The study missed its primary endpoint. The drug didn't reduce time-to-disease progression. Trends did, however, indicate that Provenge again extended survival, a different endpoint from time-to-disease progression, with the curves reportedly looking very much as they did in D9901.

Largely lost in the hubbub was the fact that D9902A was also not a complete clinical trial. It never reached targeted enrollment of 120 patients (enrollment halted at 98), and it lacked statistical significance as a stand-alone study. Since detailed results of D9902A have not been published -- and survival follow-up is still ongoing -- we don't know how the results will stack up when they are combined with data from D9901, which is how the results will ultimately have to be read.

But if we believe management's assertion about the survival curve, it looks like D9902A may well confirm the excellent survival results of D9901. And they were excellent, albeit limited. Median survival was extended 4.5 months among the patients on Provenge, and three times as many Provenge patients were alive three years after beginning treatment than those on a placebo. This survival benefit was, as Dendreon put it in their 10-K, "greater than that observed with any type of treatment in any published phase 3 study in late-stage prostate cancer." But the size of the study leaves questions about whether these results will be consistent.

D9902b is now the critical study. According to the company, if it meets its primary endpoints, Provenge could be on the market as early as 2006. If not, we may have to wait for further clinical results that would push approval out another year or more -- or Provenge could, of course, never get approved at all.

Breaking too many rules?
But now for the question at hand: Is Dendreon a Rule Breaker? While recognizing that there are only limited data available and that a more complete picture may tell a different story, I happen to believe Provenge has produced some pretty remarkable survival results. I trust management enough to believe that the trends seen in D9902A to date appear to confirm earlier results, and I think survival trumps other measures of efficacy like time-to-disease progression, which is just a surrogate endpoint anyway. I think the safety profile of Provenge -- with transient fever and chills being the most common side effects -- also helps the drug.

What if I'm wrong? Dendreon has just one other clinical product, Neuvenge (currently in phase 1 studies), which is to ovarian and breast cancer what Provenge is to prostate cancer. It works on the same technology platform (with a different antigen). Therefore, if Provenge fails, investors will, fairly or not, likely discount the value of Neuvenge to something near zero.

That will leave Dendreon in a tough position. It's not the type of situation we like to subject Motley Fool Rule Breakers subscribers to. Our ideal is to pick companies with a vision, mission, and strategy we believe in enough to hold the stock for the long term, ignoring the odd hiccup in the forward path. Even for biotech companies, where the failure of a product is always a big deal and always a possibility, we try to stick to companies that have more than one trick up their sleeve. Yes, Dendreon has other programs in place -- some quite interesting ones, even -- but these are too early in development to salvage much value for shareholders in a worst-case scenario. If Provenge fails -- really, unequivocally fails -- I'll have little choice but to take my loss and pack off somewhere else, tail between my legs.

Still, I have to say this: Dendreon is a Rule Breaker in every other Foolish sense. It is pioneering a new treatment modality, nearing the finish line with a product that, if approved, will enjoy the biopharmaceutical industry's typical high margins and solid patent protection. It has some real data to support that product. The market it is addressing is large, growing, and not adequately served by current options. I like the fact that Dendreon still owns worldwide rights to Provenge, so it's not giving away the goods to a big pharmaceutical company. And let's not forget that while investors often have to pay up for Rule Breaking companies with big growth potential, Dendreon is trading at less than $5 a share -- with a piddling $278 million market cap. With little debt and $177 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of 2004, that's not much of a price tag to pay for the company's products and technology. The market is obviously betting against it, but the rewards for the faithful, if they prove right, will be substantial.

hey guys, well, after two heavy down days, DNDN just touched the ascending trendline and bounced back - perfectly!!  So I took the opportunity to buy back in.  As many have said before either you're a believer in this one or not, and I want to believe - see the potential for big things to happen here.

So technically it has hit its short term bottom, and I expect it to pull back from here.  I am setting a relatively tight exit point of a drop below 5.90, as that is where I see the next support level below the ascending trendline, but I would like to see the trendline hold.

Any comments appreciated - here's the chart 

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 07, 2005, 12:39:19 PM
hey guys, well, after two heavy down days, DNDN just touched the ascending trendline and bounced back - perfectly!! 

Scotsman,

I saw your comment about DNDN in the CKCM folder.  Ver-ry nice job, catching that bounce off the trendline.  Applause!

QuoteI am setting a relatively tight exit point of a drop below 5.90, as that is where I see the next support level below the ascending trendline, but I would like to see the trendline hold.

In my last post somewhere back in this folder in August, I commented to Tony (Agatto, I think) after DNDN broke below its up trendline that DNDN would look alot better if it could get back above RESISTANCE at 5.88-5.89, which it did.  I'll show you that later.  Now,  5.88-5.89 has come into play again, only this time as SUPPORT, near your 5.90 stop.

QuoteAny comments appreciated

You might regret saying that, because I've got alot of comments.   

1. With reference to our linear vs. log chart discussion this week...

This is a linear chart.  If you look at #3 (circled in red) on the down trendline from February, it looked like DNDN had an upside breakout in June.  Twice, in fact.  But, on the log chart, it didn't break out, but rather, DNDN hit the down trendline just about exactly (at #3, circled in red), then sold off.  That's when David and I agreed that we'd better use a log chart on this one.

That third hit, then a selloff, validated the down trendline as resistance on the log chart.  When you get that third tag to a trendline, the market is telling us that our assumption that the down trendline is resistance is correct, and to pay attention if the stock breaks out above it, because it likely will have some significance.  Not always.  Sometimes, we get false breakouts (or breakdowns).

I'll show you the log chart next post.  Friday's action was very interesting on the log chart.

2. Look at the area of the gap down in February.  I'll explain later how that might come into play again.

3. (Off topic) Note how DNDN was coiling into the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle just before it finally did break out.  I hope we get that with EGHT.  Time's a-runnin' out on us!

Next post...the log chart.

This is the log chart, Scotsman.  If you make it through this post, you will see why I said that you might regret asking for comments.   

1. Data point #3 (circled in red) hit the down trendline almost exactly, then the stock sold off.  That was a validation that the down trendline was, in fact, resistance, and that if we could get above it, odds favor a rally, which we eventually got.

2. After meeting resistance at at data point #3 on the down trendline, we went down and bounced off the up trendline, validating that as support.  It was penetrated intraday, but that's allowable.  The close is what's important. 

The "lines in the sand" now were pretty well drawn.  3 hits at resistance; 3 hits at support.

3. DNDN broke out and rallied to "the UBS downgrade."  While it seemed as though UBS "caused" DNDN to get slammed, let's try not to let our emotions get involved, and try to look objectively at what else was going on:

a. DNDN was at 7.26-7.52 resistance from the late 2004 lows.  The high just before the downgrade was 7.32, right in that resistance area.

b. The downward sloping 200DMA was at 7.21 when the 7.32 high was made.  DNDN couldn't hold above it, and closed July 21 at 7.02.  The UBS downgrade came the next morning.

c. The 50DMA on July 21 was only at 5.51, 1.70 points below the 200DMA at 7.21, so DNDN was "ahead of itself," rallying to 7.32 with the 50 and 200 DMAs that badly inverted.

d. My contention is this: if a stock is in good shape, technically, a downgrade might knock it down for a day or two, then the market will ignore the downgrade.  If the stock keeps going down, there probably was something else going on with the stock, technically.

In this case, we can see that DNDN had some technical difficulties, which resulted in the selloff back to the 50DMA, and below it.

4. On August 8, DNDN closed below its 50DMA and, worse, closed below the up trendline off the May 2 low (red up trendline).  YUK.  DOUBLE YUK.  That looked awful.

When a stock does that, I'm gone. In this case, I already was gone at 6.01.  I rate a break like that as bearish. I rate it a neutral if it can close back above the broken trendline, but I don't want to own it.  It violated an important trendline, and I no longer trust it to act well.

5. DNDN did, in fact, get back above the broken trendline...then back below it...then back above it...

What was interesting about that late August time-frame was that, while it was looking aimless, it not only was refusing to go down, it was building a little bullish Ascending Triangle, with the top of the triangle at 5.88-5.89

That's when I said in my last post on this thread to Tony that if DNDN could take out 5.88-5.89, it would look alot better.

The low of that little Ascending Triangle was 5.37, which also is the new/redrawn up trendline off the May low (dark green trendline)

If DNDN could take out 5.88-5.89, the upside target was 6.39.

Math: 5.88 (I always use the lower, more conservative number) - 5.37 = 0.51
0.51 added to a breakout at 5.88 = Target: 6.31.  (I'd want to see 5.90 get printed, above the 5.88-5.89, before buying.

6. DNDN broke out of the Ascending Triangle on September 1, printing 5.90 .  I didn't buy the breakout.  Wasn't even watching it.  I still didn't trust the stock, technically, after that August 8 breakdown.

But, wait a minute....whether I trusted it or not, DNDN was acting BULLISH again!

DNDN not only made the 6.31 target, it rallied way-y beyond that, to a new high for the move at 7.37.

7.  I've got to rate that move to 7.37 as very good, since it was a print above the "UBS downgrade" high of 7.32.  That suggests to me that, technically,  the stock was strong enough to overcome the downgrade after correcting the technical difficulties that I mentioned above in Point #3, about what else was going on with DNDN at the UBS downgrade.

8.  Just as a point of interest, note how in the beginning and at the end of September, DNDN again began to use the original up trendline (dark red line) again as support.

The 50 and 200DMAs were still inverted, though not as badly as they were in July, at the UBS downgrade.

The slam that DNDN took this week looks to me like, "Gee, since the general market is selling off here, let's use this as an opportunity to..."

a. Go down and validate that new up trendlne (green) off the May low.
b. Give the 50 and 200DMAs some more time to make a bullish cross
c. Successfully Re-test the top of the Ascending Triangle at 5.88-5.89

9. DNDN is looking much, much healthier than it did at the July 7 upside breakout.

a. The basing formation is much larger...'the bigger the base...the better the breakout"
b. The 50/200DMAs are getting "in gear," so DNDN won't be "ahead of itself" on a rally.
c. We've got a big Ascending Triangle formation from which to breakout, if Friday's low holds, or if we get another low this week that holds.

10. The top of the Ascending Triangle (dark blue line) are the UBS downgrade high in July (7.32) and the September 15 high (7.37).

Remember in my last post, I said that 10.39 from the January gap might come back into play?

Here's the math for the Ascending Triangle if it breaks out, using the conservative 7.32.

7.32 - 4.31 (the May low) = 3.01 points.

3.01 points added to 7.32 = 10.33

Now, that's not exact, of course.  If we use the 7.37 high, we get...

7.37 - 4.31 = 3.06...............3.06 + 7.37 = 10.43

Either way, "ballpark," a breakout measures back to that gap, roughly.

This is looking good, Scotsman, as long as that green up trendline off the May low holds.  Thanks very much for bringing it back to my attention.

Scotsman,

With reference to our 5.88...5.89...5.90, and to my suggestion that we NOT switch back and forth between linear and log charts, just to suit our own purposes...

Guess where the up trendline comes in on Monday on the LINEAR chart 
(see chart)

If we bounce off it this week, I'm switching back and forth from now on, just to suit my own devilish purposes!