3SOF

Hi Stout

Yes the stock could fall a bit near term but MA200 has provided a very strong support for the PPS till now and I think it is more likely that it continues to consolidate at this level until we have a decisive break out.

If you agree that this is an excellent stock the short position should be an asset not a liability. Short covering will just add fuel to the next run.

The people that are really scared are the shorts because they are not able to cover without forcing the stock price up. In fact they are not even able to borrow the shares they have shorted so CKCM showed up on the Naked Short list again Wednesday this week.

Mike

Quote from: Michael on September 24, 2005, 08:26:41 AM
I would never buy a stock only based on bullish chart. I have a lot of respect for people like yourself, eliteG and David. I realize that a lot of money can be made using only TA but I guess it comes down to personality.

Mike,

Very good post.  Applause.

Yes, I think that much of it comes down to personality, individual style, comfort zone, etc., and nothing is a sure thing, whether it's TA, fundamentals, or some combination of the two.

As much as I posted on those bullish patterns in GSS, for example, I sold it at 3.07 on a technical break to protect some profits, and not turn a winner into a loser.  GSS now is at 3.58!  lol.

I sold ELN at 8.12 for a loss, on a trendline break.  It promptly ran to 9.30!   It takes a little bit of the sting out of it, thouugh, that ELN is back to 7.95.  Again, it boils down to "comfort zone," and how much we're willing to risk vs. what we anticipate gaining.

I sold DNDN at 6.01, planned to buy it back if it could get back above 5.88 - 5.89 resistance, which it did on September 1, but I decided that I didn't like the chart well enough to buy it back.  DNDN went to 7.37.  Sigh...

Just a few example, by way of saying, "it ain't easy," regardless of what approach to the market we take.  What I personally like about TA is that I feel like I at least have a roadmap, so to speak.  While many stocks go higher after I've sold a trendline/support break, as in the examples above, there also are quite a few that I've gotten out of on a breakdown that have seriously tanked to the downside after I've sold, so TA is a big help there.  I like to limit my risk based on "a logical stop."  A trendline break.  A break of horizontal price support, etc.

QuoteA lot of stocks comes up in this forum as momentum plays I find that only one out of 5 to 10 is also a good fundamental play but when it happens you will normally se a prolonged and sustainable increase in the stock price (like in the case of HOME, AOB, VPHM). All in all I am very satisfied with the return on my investments so my style works for me.

While I lean very heavily on the technicals, I'm not a TA purist.  If the chart looks good, and the fundamentals also look, so much the better, which is why I enjoy reading your fine work on the fundamentals.

For example, STX and KOMG.  The fundamentals that you and Scott have presented look great, and if those charts now looked like they did in November, 2004 when they were breaking out of bullish patterns, I'd be inclined to "bet the bank," even though I don't believe in actually doing that.   

Keep up the good work, Mike, and good luck with all of your trades! 

The heavy short interest in CKCM hasn't helped to produce a meaningful rally.  In a bear trend, the shorts are right.  The rally to the top of the Bear Channel ended up being another good shorting opportunity.

Yesterday, CKCM broke below the Bear Channel and also closed below its 200 DMA.  The low of the Bear Channel was 17.01; today's low is 17.08.

Where the big short interest can help to fuel a rally is if CKCM can put in a double bottom in this 17.01-17.08 area, particularly if it can take out the high of the Bear Channel at 20.61, so we'll watch it. 

As the chart stands, though, it continues to act bearish.  There are two downside targets (see chart) if 17.01 gets taken out.

CKCM currently is BID 17.34...ASK 17.35

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 05, 2005, 02:14:28 PM
As the chart stands, though, it continues to act bearish.  There are two downside targets (see chart) if 17.01 gets taken out.

17.01 didn't hold.  The 16.96 close on an increase in volume took out the base of the Bear Channel, and MACD, which is below zero, crossed below its signal line.   

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 06, 2005, 08:23:29 AM
[17.01 didn't hold.  The 16.96 close on an increase in volume took out the base of the Bear Channel, and MACD, which is below zero, crossed below its signal line.   

That break below Target #1, 17.01, led to a continuation of the decline. CKCM currently is 15.10, down another 1.40.   

Today's low of 14.90 is within seven cents of the Bear Channel Target #2, 14.83.

Hi Melf Elf,

Have been watching CKCM today, as I like Michael's fundamental evaluation of this one, andd considering it as a long term play, but the chart has me VERY concerned...  Today's move looks like it continued the "falling off the end" of previuos support, and is now flirting with that very large gap sitting right underneath.

Good to see it found some support at the gap level, but I feel it is too much of a risk at this stage.  If it hits the bear channel target, would you see that as a good signal??? or is that B A D.  In any case I think I will sit this one out for now.  Are you in?

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 07, 2005, 03:48:28 PM
Hi Melf Elf,

I like Michael's fundamental evaluation of this one

Scotsman,

Me, too!

Quotebut the chart has me VERY concerned... 

Me, too!!   

QuoteToday's move looks like it continued the "falling off the end" of previuos support, and is now flirting with that very large gap sitting right underneath.

With that close below the low of the Bear Channel (17.01), the big gap and the downside targets were yawning below.

QuoteGood to see it found some support at the gap level

Yeah, it got a bounce off the top end of the gap, but that looks like an oversold bounce.

Quote  but I feel it is too much of a risk at this stage.

Me,too!

Quote  If it hits the bear channel target,

I consider that target to be made, since it was so close.  Within seven cents.  Targets are "estimates."  Close enough, unless we were building bridges. 

Quotewould you see that as a good signal??? or is that B A D.

It could get a bigger bounce since it's so oversold and some targets have been made, but it has looked so bad, technically, I wouldn't play a bounce, personally. 

Also, we've still got the H&S top target and that big gap below.  That doesn't mean that CKCM has to go lower, but it's been in full bear mode, and I'd want to see it consolidate some, and stop going down like a falling knife.  

QuoteIn any case I think I will sit this one out for now.

Me,too.

Quote 
Are you in?

No.  I tried to short it at the top of the Bear Channel,  but there were no shares available to short.   

Quote

Quote

Cheers for the reply Melf Elf

I think we are on the same wavelength then 

And all I can say is that if it does move to filll the gap, THEN would be a time to buy

But we'll have to see about that - all in good time.

Well, I hope your trading day was better today, saw you got some profit out of EPL - good one

Mine was a bit better today, after some very painful sells this week, I think I got a couple of decent positions and am feeling better about it.  Bought back into DNDN at 6.12 (finally!!) as it hit its ascending trendline and found some support there.  Also HOM at 4.25, which filled the gap - many others that hit technical retracement targets today too - VPHM, NGAS (yesterday), though didn't get in.  And HYRF's bounce back meant that overall I'm positive in my current positions - though somewhat down from where I was at the beginning of the week.  Well, such is life, and its all good for the weekend.

Hope you have a good one, and continue to keep it cool

the Scotsman

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 07, 2005, 04:44:17 PM

Well, I hope your trading day was better today

Much better, thanks.  I had a nice re-entry into NASI.

Quote, saw you got some profit out of EPL - good one

Thanks!  Funny...if I hadn't sold into the morning rally, I would have ended up with EPL back in my face for a THIRD time.  It closed at 27.60, below my second entry of 27.86. 

QuoteAnd HYRF's bounce back meant that overall I'm positive in my current positions - though somewhat down from where I was at the beginning of the week.

You did very well, considering what a rough week the market had!

QuoteWell, such is life, and its all good for the weekend.

Great attitude!  That's what's important!

QuoteBought back into DNDN at 6.12 (finally!!) as it hit its ascending trendline and found some support there.

Man, am I glad that you mentioned that! (applauded in the DNDN folder).  I made a few posts to you in the DNDN folder on the Former 3SOF Picks board. Thanks, again!

CKCM has been in freefall since breaking the Bear Channel, which is why it's a good idea to get out of the way when support gets broken.

Yesterday's low of 13.76 was within $0.21 of the 13.55 H&S top target.  Hopefully, we're nearing a relief rally in stocks like this one, and the NASDAQ in general.

The freefall continues.  CKCM just printed the 13.55 H&S top target and is trying to make a stand there.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 13, 2005, 12:23:03 PM
The freefall continues.  CKCM just printed the 13.55 H&S top target and is trying to make a stand there.

CKCM made a stand right there yesterday.  The low was 13.52. 

Here's what it's doing today.   

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:CKCM&Interval=10&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

I am in today. I think with earnings 2 weeks away, shorts will cover in the next 2 weeks.

In the last 2 earning report events, in the 1st case, pps dropped before the earning but rose 80% a few days after the earning. In the most recent one, pps rose before earning but dropped > 40% a few days after the earning.

The stock is heavily shorted now, and I don't think shorts want repeat the 1st case.

Quote from: valueseeker on October 14, 2005, 10:52:31 PM
I am in today. I think with earnings 2 weeks away, shorts will cover in the next 2 weeks..

I tried to short this one up in the Bear Channel, but there were no shares available to short.  I think that's alot of the reason why we saw the quick run-up from the 13.55 target on Thursday afternoon to yesterday's high of 15.65.  The shorts were under constant pressure to cover all day.  We might see some more of that since there isn't much resistance from here to the base of the Bear Channel at 17.01.

As an aside, from a technician's point of view, it really was fun to see the "Nonexistent Right Shoulder" theory play out with such exactitude (very rare).  I wish that I could remember the author's name, so that I could give him credit.  I read it years ago.

The theory is that the stock is in such a hurry to get to the target, it doesn't bother to stop and build a right shoulder.  The left shoulder and head formed in CKCM, then the neckline broke, all in about 9 weeks: June 1 - August 9. 

9 weeks from August 9 would be about October 16.  The 13.55 target made within three cents (13.52) on October 13!  That's the first time that I've ever observed the theory play out.

I thought that the symmetry of time and price was pretty cool.   

Since the company does not provide earning guidance, I don't think the shorts want to take the risk of CKCM releasing a great earning like they had 6 months ago and pps shot up 80% in a few days after the earning.