3SOF

Would like to hear thoughts on VPHM. I have been holding but the action of the market and VPHM have me ready to sell before a big drop.

Any comments from members is appreciated.

Hopefully David reads this is the morning!

Brad

Hey Brad,

I think VPHM chart is turning over. Indicators and moving average support confirms this. I stated on the other VPHM thread I would hold as long as Piper Jaffrey were engineering the stock to their price targets, but 2 days back decided I didn't like the way VPHM was failing around the $20 / $21 mark and I wanted to put my profit in the bank.
Now the flip side to this is and we have seen it already that decent news moves and supports this stock so by sitting on the sidelines you run the risk of missing a sharp upwards move. That is the game. A lot will depend on where you entered and your own risk reward sentiment.
Good luck

I'll be looking to buy it back again at the ascending trendline, today at $14.37, rising $0.12 per trading day.

Good luck basanlas, I wish I still had the stock, since I sold it at $16.40 a while back.

David,

I am curious, while your original trendline is still valid (and will be for some time yet) VPHM still has a long way to go down to get anywhere near it.  However, yesterdays action validated a second trendline that started from the august breakaway gap and can be seen to define the second leg of VPHM's ascent.  Today's action indicated that the retracement may have stopped for now.

Would you consider that now would probably be a good time to get back in?  Originally you saw VPHM go all the way to $48.  This may happen, and in my opinion  VPHM is still bullish, and should find this new trendline as support until the next major break - up or down.

VPHM has been such a fantastic stock, I am not in it right now. It is sitting right at the centre of the bollinger bands the last 2 times it touched there it got a nice bounce an follow through action, so it could do that again or it could look for a deeper pullback to test the 50sma / lower bollinger band around $16 (in Aug it sat on the middle of the BB then broke it to touch the bottom band before gapping up and running again). basically because of the conflcting signals and the general market sentiment I am standing aside on VPHM, in fact the weekly / daily chart give me a short signal, one being down, the other up. Although I don't fancy shorting VPHM because of Piper Jaffrey manipulation abilities.

You could almost look at 99% of the stocks last week and said the chart is broken.

VPHM is reporting its earnings in less than 3 weeks. There are whipers that earnings will be good.  So I would think we will have a mini earning run in the next 3 weeks.

Bearish Engulfing today,strong support at 17.90 $!


yahoo board quotation:
So far, this is exactly what I hoped for. I was going to mention last night that the upper Bollinger Band has been, in a way, stubborn... staying flat and not turning inward for the last three days. Today should remedy that stubbornness and we should see another run at narrow bands.

It should only take a couple more days after today to be in the same area where VPHM has broken out from 4 times before. A range of 15.65% to 63.68% wider than normal...
We are now, before today, 91.91% wider than normal.

The big news of the day to me is that the low of $18.20 today has taken out the most recent trough we had only a few days ago of $18.36.

Therefore, if we stay above the $18.20 into our next breakout, we will again see a 1st stage breakout, since the base count will have restarted again. This base count, the 50 MA and the Bollinger Bands are the most important to me.

Both times that VPHM has had a 3rd stage breakout, shortly after, the count has been reset. This is great news IF the $18.20 holds...
The base count being reset was something I was not factoring into the list of "hopes" for the next leg up, only because it had temporarily slipped my mind.
Now that it has happened, I am even more hopeful of what is yet to come in the next couple of months.... again I say IF the $18.20 holds...

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=61240&um=50&.sig=cNgSnqF5A.1_wiNYZ8DImg--

and
chart:

I would appreciate other VPHM comments /analysis from the board members!


yahoo board quotation:
I don't have much time tonight since I have to get out the door at 5am in the morning, but I will try to let you know what I see in as few words as I can type...

I mentioned last week that I would not begin to worry until I saw a breakout to the downside on heavy volume below the $17.25 mark.
So far that has held AND there has not been a heavy selling day in the downtrend, YET. Although this downtrend has lasted longer than the last one in August. That trend had, I believe 2 or 3 down days with above average volume.

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 58.52% wider than normal, so we are in familiar territory. If we see a close below the $17.12 area, there is a good chance that the Lower BBand will flaten out or turn slightly southward, which will be the first time the lower band will be forced southward because of a downtrend in this bull market for VPHM.

From where the base count was reset last time, from the $9.74 low to the recent high, there are 2 other support areas that still stand in the way before the 50MA is reached.
The Fibonacci Fan and the Fibonacci Retracement.
The Fibonacci Fan (50% retracement value) will rise to around $17.14 tomorrow. The Fibonacci Retracement (38.2% retracement value) stands at around the $16.90 mark.
The 50MA is at $16.50 now and should be about .10 cents higher after the close tomorrow, as the ascent has slowed down.

The gap from 9/14 to 9/15 will be filled if we hit $16.86, so we might as well test the 50 while we're down there.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that basically we were overdue for a first time visit to the 50 MA. Tomorrow we might make that visit. But no lower I hope.

My main concern is, what is the conviction of the big boys. So far they haven't shown any conviction in the dumping of shares.

Tomorrow is pivotal... I will be watching volume in this pivotal area.
If there is to be a bounce, the best time for it to happen would be tomorrow or Friday.

How is that for just a few words?

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=61609



updated chart:

It tagged the 50-day EMA today at 16.60 so a low risk entry close to that level as you know to then put a stop below. Market still correcting but maybe next week late will be better.

I will try and post a better chart later

http://tinyurl.com/cqnxp

Wednesday, October 19, 2005 08:15 ET

Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)

Analyst Firm:  JMP Securities

Ratings Action: INITIATE

Current Rating: Mkt Outperform

Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $25.00

Analyst Comments: According to the firm, ViroPharma is a profitable, commercial-stage biotechnology company with one marketed product candidate, Vancocin. Vancocin was acquired in 2004 from Eli Lilly (LLY), and ViroPharma has made good use of the product by driving increased awareness and implementing price increases. They note that ViroPharma also has two development-stage products (HCV-796 for hepatitis C and Maribavir for CMV) that we expect will generate important news flow sometime around the end of the year. They believe that continued Vancocin sales growth along with progress from the company's pipeline should drive continued appreciation for the stock. They reach their $25 price target by applying a 25x multiple to their 2006 EPS estimate of $1.00.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.dc496b95f4b8b68502aa45b12295ecbe226b474e1401023b7c17c48836558492

nice analysis from yahoo board:
Hey there IRC,

Thanks for the script numbers tonight.

The Bands did narrow today, just slightly, to 34.26% wider than nornal from 36.76%.

I'm not reading into this, but the lower band did turn south today. It should turn back north if we see green intra-day tomorrow.

We met some resistance again at the lower Darvas Box today. That's seven days in a row we have met resistance. What would one expect with all of the low volume days we've been having.
Today was the lowest volume day since
Sept. 12.

You ask me if this is what I had hoped for.... Yes it is... We are in the same price range as we were on 9/15, about 27 trading days ago, but our 50MA has risen from $13.34 to $17.67.
In the long run, so far, the 50MA has risen to meet the price action, not the other way around. This is exactly what I was hoping for...

The volatility of this stock is low and I don't know how much longer it will stay like that.
If you could look at a CandleVolume chart of VPHM you could see exactly what I am talking about. It's like the Candlesticks have gone anorexic. The makings for a text book breakout.

MSGI_dude stated tonight what I have stated time and again. VPHM needed to digest it's gains. It was critical, IMO, that this happened. Otherwise, it would have fallen off of a cliff in the near future.

and yes, the technicals look terrible, but please tell me which technical inidicators look good when a stock has been consolidating for over 5 weeks...

Most technicals are worthless in a 5 week sideways market. Some of the ones that are not worthless are the 50MA, Bollinger Bands and Volume.
If a stock is too far extended above the 50MA, it doesn't have legs to stand on and will swim to shallow ground to rest before venturing out in the deep again. (speaking mainly of strong fundamental companies)
The BBands give you an idea of a stock's volatility. The longer the volatility is low, usually the more powerful the surge when the volatility ends.
The volume can give early selling clues.

VPHM can stand in the shallow water again, we have a very clear picture of low volatility and there have been no selling clues whatsoever...

The A/D line is an important indicator also. Although it is important to keep an eye on, the signals it gives in a sideways market, just like all the other signals that are given by other indicators, are still held in check by the consolidation. (the A/D line gave a Bullish Divergence signal after the 10/13 action).
But the A/D line did tell us along with the volume, that the big boys have not been selling.

I see that you posted the IBD ratings, IRC... Isn't it interesting that VPHM holds the #1 spot in the technical ratings despite being flat for over 5 weeks???
link:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=63426

chart update:

VPHM breaking out this morning....

VPHM will be up with quarterly results IMO 
nice link:
http://www.jh.b.ms/
shorts update:
VPHM: Short Interest UP 24.7% to 3.6M in Oct 2005
Tuesday , October 25, 2005 16:26 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 24.7% to 3,607,594 shares for the month ended mid-October, 2005.

SYMBOL      SEPTEMBER         OCTOBER     CHANGE     %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
VPHM           2,892,312       3,607,594        +715,282       +24.73%           3

Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,540,700, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Piper update:

PHM (TBA): Piper EPS $0.27 vs. Street $0.21. We currently have the Street-
high Vancocin 3Q sales estimate of $31.6 million, based on strong prescription
trends seen for the quarter but factoring in a modest (and expected) seasonal
decline. As a reminder, historical patterns of Vancocin use have shown a
yearly peak in the April/May time frame, lagging the season of peak antibiotic
use during the winter. The cumulative 3Q Vancocin Rx show a 3Q 2.8% Q/
Q decline. Our 3Q Vancocin sales estimate is based on the 2.8% Q/Q seasonal
decline in Rx, and incorporates the Vancocin price increase taken in mid-
August. We expect ViroPharma may take the opportunity to raise Vancocin 2005
sales guidance ($100-$105 million) again on its 3Q call. We currently project
$115.3 million for 2005 Vancocin sales.

We also expect that VPHM may update investors on the restructuring of its 2007
debt during the 3Q call. With the final conversion of all the 2009 debt during
this quarter, VPHM is left with $86.7 million in debt on its current balance
sheet. ViroPharma's board authorized the company to purchase an additional $8
million in 2007 debt this year, which we expect may be increased given the
higher-than-expected sales of Vancocin. ViroPharma indicated on its last
conference call that it will look to refinance the 2007 debt in a non-dilutive
fashion after the 2009 debt is retired, possibly with the use of Vancocin
product rights that had been used to secure the 2009 debt.

Upcoming milestones include: 1) top-line data from the Phase I proof-of-
concept trial of HCV-796, an oral Hepatitis C drug (4Q05); 2) top-line Phase
II proof-of-concept data for Maribavir (1Q06). We continue to believe that
VPHM represents an attractive small-cap biotech play, with upside to the
valuation on Vancocin sales alone and a free call option on the pipeline
assets.

Looking good again today.  I am a bit unsure if I should take my small profit or hold for earnings.  MACD looks to have turned + today on my chart.  I will watch the close, but am 75% on the hold for earnings side now.