3SOF

Conexant Systems (CNXT)on 23 June, received an upgrade from Wachovia Securities to market perform from underperform, citing revenue stability. The broker told clients that in its universal access business, the company's share gains and positive PC end-market demand should offset concerns of aggressive pricing.

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Jul 11, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Conexant Systems, Inc. (CNXT, Trade), a worldwide leader in semiconductor solutions for broadband communications, enterprise networks and the digital home, invites financial analysts, members of the media and the public to participate in a conference call announcing results for the third fiscal quarter of 2005. The conference call will take place on Wednesday, July 27, 2005, at 5 p.m. Eastern Time / 2 p.m. Pacific Time.

To listen to the conference call via telephone, dial 866-650-4882 (in the U.S. and Canada) or 706-679-7338 (from other international locations); security code: Conexant. To listen via the Internet, visit the Investor Relations section of Conexant's Web site at www.conexant.com/ir. Playback of the conference call will be available shortly after the call concludes and will be accessible on Conexant's Web site at www.conexant.com/ir or by calling 800-642-1687 (in the U.S. and Canada) or 706-645-9291 (from other international locations); pass code: 7760485.

Up in after hours

CONEXANT SYSTEMS (NasdaqNM:CNXT) Delayed quote data 

After Hours (RT-ECN): 2.09  0.20 (10.58%)

Last Trade: 1.89
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change:  0.03 (1.56%)
Prev Close: 1.92
Open: 1.87
Bid: 0.87 x 2500
Ask: 2.89 x 2500
1y Target Est: 1.58

  Day's Range: 1.77 - 1.90
52wk Range: 0.95 - 2.23
Volume: 10,285,243
Avg Vol (3m): 6,568,650
Market Cap: 890.67M
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -1.36
Div Yield (ttm): N/A (N/A)

   

Monster Volume..

Already doubled since Cramer said to stay away.
Don't follow the analysts too much, wouldn't you say!

This stocks might be back on the come up and break its 52 week high this week !

its now Cramer's "stock of the week". go figure.

now there's some volume.....

I think I need at least 1 semiconductor stock, just in case shawFund is right on his semiconductor stocks rally. I feel these stocks overall have a betan higher than 1, this means when the market rises that group rises more, and when it falls it falls more.

Anyway, I want to make this just a technically based play. I see CNXT held well over the recent market declines and even breakout yesterday a triangle formation with volume above average (or it wouldn't have surpassed my filters).

Just one fundamental input:

About 1 month ago Cramer talked about CNXT:

«Shares of Conexant Systems surged Tuesday after Real Money's Jim Cramer named it his stock of the week on CNBC's "Mad Money" television program. Cramer, who cofounded the company that operates this Web site, said the communications chip maker could earn up to 40 cents a share next year, making it a relative bargain at Monday's closing price of $1.63. On Instinet, the shares were recently up almost 15% to $1.87.»

The stock shot up 17% following those comments, but then it came down to fill the opened gap. Recently it is moving up again. I wonder where Cramer got those 40 cents a share in 2006 profits, but if that were to come true CNXT would have a earnings multiple of just 4.82 and would be extremely undervalued. Just the speculation could move this stock up 100% from current levels, to close that gigantic gap at $4.03.

I'll buy 6.66% of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio on CNXT at today's market open.

Bought CNTX @ $1.95 for the 3Stocks Portfolio

Some things I just buy and hold.   Symmetrical Triangle (continuation)
This has been in a trading range with that sideways movement for the past
6 months.Looks like a breakout is wanting to take place.
Have played this stock many times in the past,have always managed to make a profit from it.
Support @ $1.94...1.90...1.82...
Resistance @ $2.07
MACD is bullish
Stochastic is bearish
Recent CandleStick Analysis
Bullish
Oct-19-2005 Bullish Engulfing 


Technicals
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
6.40%above 13-day EMA
10.26%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 83 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Oct 27

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $861.61 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: -0.282927 
Next Earnings: 10/27/2005
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Perform

The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout.
Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.

Prices sometimes return to the breakout point of apex on a reaction move before resuming in the direction of the breakout. This return can offer a second chance to participate with a better reward to risk ratio. Potential reward price targets found by measurement and parallel trend line extension are only meant to act as rough guidelines. Technical analysis is dynamic and ongoing assessment is required.

I like this pick David and Rams.
I have a thread on this one in the Stock Picking board since July.
Hasn't attracted to much attention,if it did, there were not many replies.
I'm with you all on this one, as well as AVII.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1207.0

Also applaud you guys for your hard work....and this great web site!!!
Thanks a million!!!!

No, I thank you setravis ! You see, it is very late hours here and I couldn't tell if I had enough power to explain the symmetrical triangle pattern. And you come up with this excellent explanation:

QuoteThe symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout.
Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.

Prices sometimes return to the breakout point of apex on a reaction move before resuming in the direction of the breakout. This return can offer a second chance to participate with a better reward to risk ratio. Potential reward price targets found by measurement and parallel trend line extension are only meant to act as rough guidelines. Technical analysis is dynamic and ongoing assessment is required.

(let me applaud you for this)

As you say, earnings are going to be out on October 27th. I don't know if they are going to be good or bad, but I have a quite simple trading plan to follow:

Hold for as long as the stock closes above the ascending trendline, which for tomorrow will be at $1.79.

Semis aren't performing and CNXT went down with the group yesterday. I don't have to think much here, the stock is trading near an important support level, if it breaks that support on close I'll be out with no regrets.

For today the ascending trendline supporting CNXT will be standing at $1.80. If the stock is set to close below this level I'll sell without regrets.

My prediction on semi:

Index will go down further to around 400-420 before end-year rally.

Buy stocks with good earnings and good guidences.

Some buys:

1. AMD: CPU play. Its technology is two years ahead of INTC now and is taking market share from INTC. Target: $30

2. SNDK, LEXR: nand is hot and will continue the trend.

3. SSTI, ATML, STTS: all turnaround story. SSTI: TARGET: $8.00, ATML: target: $3.2. STTS: $9.00.

4. CAND: niche market

...

Avoid DVD chips sector. Market demand not high, waiting for  new products. Avoid ESST, ZRAN.

Thanks for your comments Shawfund !

I sold CNXT at $1.78 yesterday before the close according to plan:

QuoteFor today the ascending trendline supporting CNXT will be standing at $1.80. If the stock is set to close below this level I'll sell without regrets.