3SOF

Personally, I see an ascending triangle formation that has not broken support yet - the last 2 days have shown that there is solid support in the 1.75 area, and the chart definitely shows the 1.74-1.76 area as a support band.  Upward resistance stands at 1.97, which has been validated 5 times in the last 6 months.  The 2 breaks of this level have pulled back intraday, and I think the fundamental story still stands.

I know it all comes down to where you draw your lines in the sand, but I still think that CNXT is ready to breakout.  I'm just a little uncomfortable with an entry at 1.9, where it is now pushing, as it gives me a risk of about 8%.  But then again, the technical target of the breakout is 2.95, if it makes it there.  Volume does seem pretty good, so I'll wait to see whether it can push through 1.90.  Up 6% today though 

Hy Scottisch trader,

Good to still see somebody here. I'm still holding CNXT. Must say, did give a sell on Friday, expecting it to finally go through the $ 1,97 after, what I perceived as, good financial results. But it did not get there (8% was not enough), and I'm still holding.

I did not sell with David, because it did not break my TL. For tomorrow that stands at $ 1,87, rising 0,05 per day.

I set my sell at $ 1,97, which would give me a just a little above break even incl. costs. I guess you just made me see I'm not sticking to my plan... Only to sell if it is set to close below the TL... I guess my sell desiscion was triggerd by some big losses on NVAX and BIDU... I know that is not the way to go, but hey I'm only human  .

I'll go back to the plan. I'll sell if it is set to close below the trendline which for tomorrow stands at $ 1,87!

Thanks Scottish.
Amarens

Still holding this one....
Management has finally got it turned around.
It is still flirting with the Symmetrical Triangle.
Support @ $1.84...1.80...1.76...1.72...1.69
Resistance @ $1.90...1.94...2.07
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is neutral......turning to head north
Recent CandleStick Analysis    Very Bullish
Oct-27-2005 Bullish Harami 

Technicals
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
3.15%above 13-day EMA
6.19%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 44 

Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Buy

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $899.48 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: 7.41463 
Next Earnings: 01/25/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

I expect CNXT to go past the $3 mark by year end based on fudamentals and TA. I hope so, because I own a bunch of thi stock.

Amarens,

I'm not sure what trendline is giving you 1.87, I see it as 1.77 on the chart I posted above.  I didn't get the break of 1.90 I wanted as a positive signal, but something funny happened with my limit buy and I bought anyway, at 1.90.  So I'm in for now.  Yesterdays action was just ridiculous, with literally millions of shares changing hands at 1.89-1.90.  It just didn't seem to be able to budge from there.

Perhaps tomorrow will show some stronger direction, and a follow through from the positive earnings.

I agree with ScottishTrader, I was wrong when I sold this one. As I see it breaking out and since I'm bullish the general market (specially the Nasdaq Composite) I want this stock back in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

I will buy CNXT today around the open, 6.66% of capital, as usual.

My view on semi group:

I am going to change my view on this group.

I think that the group will test the low of 380 in the next two months before rebounding.

Previously my take is to test 420 before resersing.

After 11% down in October, November will be a flat month, up and downs. December will be down first then rebound - year-end rally.

The view is based on the market reaction last week.  Manysemi  stocks gave good earning reports but down big such as ONNN, LEXR, SSTI, etc,-  not a good sign.

SSTI has lower highs and lower lows during last two months even its fundamentals have improve a lot.

ONNN gave a good report but sold off last Friday.

LEXR returned profitable but sold off after report.

Big players always control the stock price.

Others such as LSI, CY, KLIC, etc are still in down trend.

Quote from: shawFund on October 31, 2005, 07:17:59 AM
My view on semi group:

I am going to change my view on this group.

I think that the group will test the low of 380 in the next two months before rebounding.

shawFund,

The SMH (Semiconductor HOLDRS) supports your view on the group: (The points below also on numbered on the chart).

1. October 3 - False Upside Breakout on a Bearish Evening Doji Star Pattern.

2. October 10 - Gap Down Break below Descending Channel

3. October 24 - Failed re-test of the the Descending Channel

4. October 28 - Closed below the neckline of a H&S Top.

The CNXT chart looks constructively bullish, with the possibility of an upside breakout (above 2.17) out of a year-long Inverse H&S pattern, but it can be tough going to play a bullish-looking stock in a bearish sector.

Weekly Chart.  I would like CNXT's upside prospects alot better if the Semiconductor sector didn't look so bearish (see SMH chart above, posted to shawFund).

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 30, 2005, 10:31:27 PM
Amarens,

I'm not sure what trendline is giving you 1.87, I see it as 1.77 on the chart I posted above.  I didn't get the break of 1.90 I wanted as a positive signal, but something funny happened with my limit buy and I bought anyway, at 1.90.  So I'm in for now.  Yesterdays action was just ridiculous, with literally millions of shares changing hands at 1.89-1.90.  It just didn't seem to be able to budge from there.

Perhaps tomorrow will show some stronger direction, and a follow through from the positive earnings.

ScottishTrader,

Once again you're right. My chart says the same, somehow I updated it wrong in my spreadsheet  . Anyway even that higher (wrong information) wasn't broken. In my chart it stands at $ 1,80 for today and rises $ 0,02 a day.

And 3SOF is back in it again now too 

Amarens

Quote from: Amarens on October 31, 2005, 08:56:49 AM
In my chart it stands at $ 1,80 for today and rises $ 0,02 a day.

Amarens,

I get the same as The Scotsman.  For today, I have the trendline at 1.77051, rising .00641
per day.

Thanks David and Melf Elf,

I just wanted to post this here as I thought it looked a little worrisome:

There was an awful lot of institutional selling going on today, and granted, it only consisted of 10% of trades according to I-watch, there was serious resistance at 1.95-1.96.  I am hoping for a convincing upward push tomorrow to kick start a breakout, I think much more stalling at this level and CNXT will pull back to support.

I smell some upside coming. I'm just trying to be sneaky 


Technicals
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
5.32%above 13-day EMA
8.42%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 47 

Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Buy

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $899.48 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: 7.41463 
Next Earnings: 01/25/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

Conexant Returns to Profitability Ahead of Schedule;...

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Oct 27, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Conexant Systems, Inc. (CNXT, Trade) today reported fourth quarter and full year financial results for fiscal 2005, which ended Sept. 30, 2005, and announced it achieved core net income profitability one quarter earlier than the target established in December 2004. Revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005 grew 9 percent sequentially to $214.9 million. Additionally, gross margins improved more than anticipated, and operating expenses came in lower than previously expected.

Conexant presents financial results based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) as well as selected non-GAAP financial measures intended to reflect its core results of operations. The company believes these core financial measures provide investors with additional insight into its underlying operating results. Core financial measures exclude non-cash and other non-core items as fully described in the non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation in the accompanying financial data.

Fourth fiscal quarter 2005 revenues of $214.9 million increased 9 percent from third fiscal quarter 2005 revenues of $197.5 million, compared to $213.1 million in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2004. Gross margins in the fourth fiscal quarter increased to 40 percent of revenues from 38 percent in the prior quarter.

On a core measures basis, core operating expenses declined by $6 million sequentially, from $86 million in the third fiscal quarter to the company's previously announced target level of $80 million, as a result of accelerated progress on restructuring initiatives. Core operating income in the fourth fiscal quarter was $6.7 million, compared to a core operating loss of $11.2 million in the prior quarter. Core net income for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2005 was $0.3 million, or $0.00 per diluted share, compared to a loss of $17.6 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, in the third fiscal quarter.

On a GAAP measures basis, GAAP operating expenses decreased from $113.7 million in the prior quarter to $99.7 million in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2005, and $135.1 million in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2004. GAAP operating loss decreased from $38.7 million in the previous quarter to $13.1 million in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2005, as compared to an operating loss of $49.6 million in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2004. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005 was $50.1 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $32.2 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, in the third quarter of fiscal 2005, and a net loss of $370.5 million, or $0.79 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004.

Fiscal 2005 revenues of $722.7 million decreased 20 percent compared to fiscal 2004 revenues of $901.9 million. The GAAP net loss for fiscal 2005 was $176.0 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, compared to a net loss in fiscal 2004 of $544.6 million, or $1.40 per diluted share.

"For Conexant, fiscal 2005 was a year of recovery," said Dwight W. Decker, Conexant chairman and chief executive officer. "We stabilized our business, and we made major progress against key goals. Most importantly, we delivered core net income profitability a quarter ahead of schedule. Achieving this milestone successfully concludes the second phase of our three-phase recovery strategy, which required growing revenues, improving gross margins, reducing operating expenses, and returning to profitability.

"The entire Conexant team did an outstanding job as we delivered fourth fiscal quarter results that exceeded our expectations," Decker said. "Coming into the quarter, we anticipated revenues of $207 million, gross margins of approximately 39 percent, and core operating expenses of approximately $83 million. We grew revenues 9 percent sequentially to $214.9 million, primarily as a result of more stable pricing and increased demand across all of our businesses. We improved gross margins by two points sequentially, from 38 percent of revenues in the prior quarter to 40 percent, due to better-than-expected pricing and benefits from our manufacturing cost-reduction initiatives. Finally, we reduced core operating expenses from $86 million in the previous quarter to $80 million in the fourth fiscal quarter, primarily by completing our cost-reduction initiatives one quarter ahead of schedule.

"From a balance-sheet perspective, our cash, cash equivalents and investments decreased by $5 million sequentially, from $386 million in the prior quarter to $381 million in the September quarter," Decker continued. "This was an improvement over our cash consumption target for the quarter of approximately $10 million. Days sales outstanding improved sequentially from 38 days to 37 days, and internal inventory was further reduced by $8 million, with inventory turns increasing from 4.7 times in the previous quarter to 5.4 times in the fourth fiscal quarter.

"With the second part of our three-phase recovery plan now completed, we are turning our full attention to the third and final phase of our recovery," Decker said. "During this period, we intend to capitalize on the profit leverage in our current business model to deliver accelerated earnings growth. For phase three, we have set as our highest priority target the achievement of double-digit core operating margins before the end of next calendar year. At the conclusion of phase three, we will continue our focus on building shareholder value by developing innovative products for high-growth, converged consumer electronics applications, and achieving our target business model of 45 percent gross margins and 15 percent core operating income."

First Fiscal Quarter 2006 Outlook

"Entering our first fiscal quarter, the end-market demand outlook remains positive for each of our businesses. We expect increasing Broadband Media Processing shipments to contribute most significantly to overall revenue growth as satellite set-top box designs ramp into production," Decker said. "In total, we expect to grow revenues approximately 5 percent sequentially to $225 million. We anticipate that gross margins for the current quarter will be in a range of 40 to 41 percent of revenues, and we expect core operating expenses to increase to a range of $82 to $83 million, primarily as a result of employee performance compensation costs associated with our return to profitability.

"Based on the above metrics, we anticipate that we will increase our core operating income by more than 30 percent sequentially, and we expect to increase our core net income to approximately $0.01 per share, based on approximately 479 million fully diluted shares," Decker concluded.

Note to Editors, Analysts and Investors

Conexant's conference call will take place on Thursday, Oct. 27, 2005, at 5 p.m. Eastern time/2 p.m. Pacific time. To listen to the conference call via telephone, dial 866-650-4882 (in the U.S. and Canada) or 706-679-7338 (from other international locations); security code: Conexant. To listen via the Internet, visit the Investor Relations section of Conexant's Web site at www.conexant.com/ir. Playback of the conference call will be available shortly after the call concludes and will be accessible on Conexant's Web site at www.conexant.com/ir or by calling 800-642-1687 (in the U.S. and Canada) or 706-645-9291 (from other international locations); pass code: 1394478.

About Conexant

Conexant's innovative semiconductor solutions are driving broadband communications and digital home networks worldwide. The company has leveraged its expertise and leadership position in modem technologies to enable more Internet connections than all of its competitors combined, and continues to develop highly integrated silicon solutions for broadband data and media processing networks.

Key products include client-side xDSL and cable modem solutions, home network processors, broadcast video encoders and decoders, digital set-top box components and systems solutions, and dial-up modems. Conexant's suite of networking components includes a leadership portfolio of IEEE 802.11a/b/g-compliant WLAN chipsets, software and reference designs, as well as solutions for applications based on HomePlug(SM) and HomePNA(TM). The company also offers a complete line of asymmetric and symmetric DSL central office solutions, which are used by service providers worldwide to deliver broadband data, voice, and video over copper telephone lines.

Conexant is a fabless semiconductor company that recorded more than $720 million in revenues in fiscal year 2005. The company has approximately 2,400 employees worldwide, and is headquartered in Newport Beach, Calif. To learn more, please visit us at www.conexant.com.

I don't wanna think too much ...i'll take a position tomorrow