3SOF

Thank you Melf Elf.  You have constantly shown how your charts can be prescient.  I agree with you about the market being perception.  Thanks for the fundamentals on KOMG, Michael.

I think the market perceives KOMG (and STX) as yesterday's technology.  It is set on seeing flash replace disk drives. For this reason, good earnings was not enough.   

I don't have much technical or fundamental skills.  What I beleve is my strengh is my ability to spot trends and the new "hot" things.   My preception is that disk drives will become more integral to our everyday life.  Plam has a PDA call the Lifedrive.  This is a great name and encompasses the future of disk drives.  Disk drives will become as essential as a watch or a wallet

Moreoever, at home DVR's will replace VHS players.  DVR's have been soundly beating recordable DVD's as the preferred technology.  Also, as media center gain traction, bigger disk drives will be call for.  Corporations will also need bigger drives as they create larger databases.  (The company I work for is just now transfering their files to a database.)  This trend is most obvious in the recent spectacular successes of data management companies. 

I will look to enter STX or KOMG.  (what about WDC?, it is getting alot of exposure from IBD.)

Good luck.

Quote from: logocovet on October 26, 2005, 10:17:47 PM
You have constantly shown how your charts can be prescient.  I agree with you about the market being perception. 

Thanks, logocovet.  What I try to do is look at a chart as objectively as possible, and follow what I think it's telling me.  I don't always get it right, believe me!  But, KOMG has been telling me that it's acting bearish...

Quote
Bearish Move #1: Broke the H&S top.

Bearish Move #2: A-B-C Corrective Rally (Bear Flag rally) that ended at the broken neckline of the H&S top.

Bearish Move #3: Broke below the Bear Flag.

Bearish Move #4: Broke below the base of the Bear Flag (29.17) and broke the Double Bottom at the base of the Bear Flag (29.17-29.19).


Bearish Move #5: Gapped up to 29.17-29.19 resistance area on good earnings, and rallied.  Closed yesterday at 28.86, below the "good earnings" gap. 

Bearish Move #6: Rallied to the down trendline off the high on October 17.  October 18, KOMG opened below the down trendline, rallied above it by by six cents, then closed down on a Bearish Engulfing Pattern.  Yesterday's third tag of the down trendline validates it as resistance.

...and, it continues to tell me that it's acting bearish:

Bearish Move #7: Gap down on October 19 to Bear Flag Target #2 (27.16) and beyond (low was 25.48)

Bearish Move #8: From the 25.48 low, KOMG had a gap-filling rally back to former support at 29.17-29.19, and back to the down trendline off the off the August high.  The October 25 high was 29.18. October 26, KOMG failed at the down trendline, putting in Hit #4, and validating that BOTH:
a. former 29.17-29.19 support is now resistance
b. the down trendline off the August high continues to be resistance.

QuoteWhat I beleve is my strengh is my ability to spot trends and the new "hot" things.

Good, because I still think that 8-track tapes are the hottest thing, which shows you how good I am at spotting trends and the new "hot" things!

QuoteMy preception is that disk drives will become more integral to our everyday life.  Plam has a PDA call the Lifedrive.  This is a great name and encompasses the future of disk drives.  Disk drives will become as essential as a watch or a wallet

Do you mean Palm?  I don't know what PDA is, so you see what I mean.  I'm not up on this stuff at all, and I'm glad that you, Mike and others understand it.

Quote
Moreoever, at home DVR's will replace VHS players.  DVR's have been soundly beating recordable DVD's as the preferred technology.

Don't laugh at me, but I've never heard of DVR.  I've heard of DVD though. 

Nah-h-h-h.... go ahead and laugh at me.   

QuoteAlso, as media center gain traction, bigger disk drives will be call for.  Corporations will also need bigger drives as they create larger databases.  (The company I work for is just now transfering their files to a database.)  This trend is most obvious in the recent spectacular successes of data management companies. 

I will look to enter STX or KOMG.  (what about WDC?, it is getting alot of exposure from IBD.)

So, based on the trends that you  see, do you still think STX, KOMG, WDC, MXO, etc. are stocks to own, or stocks like SNDK, Plam (Palm?)...?

I'm seriously weak at understanding trends, technology, fundamentals, etc.  I don't have a microwave oven or a cell phone or an answering machine...my car is 15 years old....you get the picture, and it's not pretty.

"Updated: 04:11 PM EDT - October 26, 2005
Komag Reports Record Revenue for the Third Quarter of 2005, Net Income Exceeds the Prior Quarter"

We've discussed quite a bit on this thread about the "counterintuitive" nature of KOMG, which looks to be fine, fundamentally, but has a chart that looks ugly.

The company reported Record Revenues last night, and a quick read of the earnings report...it looks fine. 

Market response:

Bearish Move #9: On Record Revenues, and what appears to be a real decent earnings report (quick skim), KOMG has taken out the recent low of 25.48, and was down over $2.00 in early trading.

KOMG currently is BID 25.02...ASK 25.03, down $1.98.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 27, 2005, 11:17:53 AM
Market response:

Bearish Move #9: On Record Revenues, and what appears to be a real decent earnings report (quick skim), KOMG has taken out the recent low of 25.48, and was down over $2.00 in early trading.

KOMG currently is BID 25.02...ASK 25.03, down $1.98.

After all of those Bear Moves, it looks like the bleeding in KOMG finally has stopped, even if it's only temporary.

Like INTC, which Calven and I just discussed in that folder, KOMG has broken above its twice-validated down trendline off the August highs.  Breaks above this type of down trendline can result in the stock re-testing, then bouncing higher off the down trendline, or result in "walking down the trendline" (see red arrows) and making a double bottom at/near the October 28 low of 24.49. 

The stock, at least, has stopped acting bearish and the break above the down trendline is a start for a "possible" trend change.

Bull Move #1: KOMG broke above the July down trendline (that could get negated, but it's a start).

The October 28 low of 24.49 "could be" the low, and that will become clearer as the chart unfolds. 

If you look at the late September/early October lows (29.17-29.19), that broken support became resistance at the October 25 high of 29.18, confirming the bearish trend in KOMG:

"In a bearish trend, former support should act as resistance."  It did.

29.17-29.19, then, is key resistance, near-term.  A close above that would be a "higher high" as well as a close above former resistance.





 

Hi Melf Elf! (always meant to ask you, what does melf mean?)

Thanks for your charts.  I'lll try to answer your questions?  I'm glad I can actually provide some info to you.  I don't know how to quote so I'll just write my responses.

A PDA is a personal digital assistant.  People used to carry these around to keep mostly addresses, appointments, and later on Word, Excel, etc on them.  Now they are mostly integrated into higher end cellphones. 

Palm's Lifedrive is a novel concept and one that I think will stick.  It's just as iits name implies, a disk drive for one's everyday life.  You can keep your songs, files, videos, whatever, on it.  It is also as a scaled down laptop with wich you can surf the web, write email, follow the market, do work, etc..  I think it is one of the best new gagets out (although currently pricey).  This gaget is also the future of laptops.   

How is this relevant to STX or KOMG?  Well, the heart of the Lifedrive is a disk drive.  As such gagets become more and more popular, the demand for more drives will increase.  Moreoever, we are talking about rather large disk drives (20 -40 gig), so the current Flash technology will not suffice.

A DVR is a digital video recorder.  Tivo is probably the best known company that markets these.  Currently, most cable companies are also selling them to their customers.  With a DVR, one can watch any show one wants at any time one wants.  (it's like copying a tiv show onto a vcr and watching it later but much easier)  DVR far surpass DVD recorders in ease of use and has become the new VCR (video cassette recorder).  This is the largest potential market for disk drives.  DVR's also require huge storage capacity and thus flash will not suffice. 

We are becoming an increasing digial society.  Just recently, Mark Cuban (owner of the Dallas Mavericks and once tech geek) has started a project to trasform movies from a film platform to a digital one.  This is inevitably where the film indsutry will go (how cubersome is to to ship film reels all across the world when you can send a digital file over the net?)  This will require a huge amount of disk drive storage space. 

So I think this means good things for companies like STX, KOMG, and WDC. (I don't know so much about Palm as it has alot of competition.)  This is not to shortchange flash drive makers.  Flash has all the makings of a rule breaker technology although it does currently have limits.

What kind of 15 year old car Melf Elf?  I drive a 73 Beetle (it is older than I am).  I love old cars. 

I'm waiting for STX or KOMG to start an uptrend to take a position.  Plus there is just so many good stocks to invest in, it's hard to say which is better.  I noticed that you are a very short term trader Melf Elf, does it make tax time hell?    

logocovet,

Thanks and applause for all of that information.  You really know your stuff!  I feel like I just crawled out from under a rock.   

I don't know what Melf means because I made it up for children, at Christmas time.  I picked it because children like things that rhyme.  I found out later that I wasn't original with it, though.  There were lots of "Melf Elfs" on Google.

Yes, tax time is HORRIBLE.  I write down all of the trades as they are completed, but I'm way behind typing them onto a spreadsheet to give to my accountant.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 04, 2005, 07:42:38 AM
[Bull Move #1: KOMG broke above the July down trendline (that could get negated, but it's a start).

29.17-29.19, then, is key resistance, near-term.  A close above that would be a "higher high" as well as a close above former resistance.

Bought KOMG at 29.25 on the breakout above 29.17-29.29 (EDIT: 29.19, not 29.29), which has been key resistance.  Stop is a close or obvious late day tank below 27.01, the low prior to the breakout.  Risk: a loss of 7.7%

I hope this thread is not dead because KOMG is another STOCK ON FIRE, especially right now!

KOMG has been reversing quite nicely for the past few days and now makes a good entry point. I added KOMG positions today at market open at $30.50 per share. KOMG broke through a few resistance levels already and the next target to break through is around $32.65. RSI has recovered to 60's on and MACD is prone to crossover into positve territory on the 6-month chart. This may be the beginning of a bull run towards $40!

Quote from: [D] Investor on November 18, 2005, 10:25:58 AM
I hope this thread is not dead because KOMG is another STOCK ON FIRE, especially right now!

DInvestor,

I'm in with you.  Posted on the breakout yesterday.  It's just above your post.

Quote
KOMG has been reversing quite nicely for the past few days and now makes a good entry point. I added KOMG positions today at market open at $30.50 per share. KOMG broke through a few resistance levels already and the next target to break through is around $32.65.

On the Triangle Pattern breakout (green lines on the chart below), I get a target of 33.60 IN PLAY.  That would get us up to the broken neckline of the summer H&S top.

We have to watch that this Triangle pattern doesn't "morph" (change) into a Bear Flag (the rising red line connecting the recent tops).  That line comes in today at about 31.22.  Today's high is 31.03.

Quote
RSI has recovered to 60's on and MACD is prone to crossover into positve territory on the 6-month chart. This may be the beginning of a bull run towards $40!

Thanks for your analysis.  Applause.

EDIT: The chart wouldn't print.  Scroll down to the next post for the chart.

Sorry, DInvestor, but for some reason, that chart didn't seem to post.  I'm trying again.

KOMG presentation:
http://www.komag.com/investors/presentations/KOMG3Q05_Nov05.pdf

I have started with a small KOMG position 

OLIVER

Quote from: la-onda on November 18, 2005, 12:30:28 PM

I have started with a small KOMG position 

OLIVER

Hey, Oliver!

At the moment, I've got some concerns about the Bear Flag that I posted about to DInvestor, and the Bear Flag fractal on the intraday. 

Fractal means a repeating pattern.

Basis the daily chart that I posted above, the Bear Flag is the recent "higher highs...higher lows."

Basis this intraday chart, that pattern is repeating (connect the" higher highs...higher lows."

Technically, KOMG has been very bearish until the recent breakouts above the down trendline, and yesterday's breakout above key 29.17-29.19 resistance (remember the NINE Bear Moves?)

A few things that I don't like:

1. Volume on yesterday's breakout was "just okay."

2. Volume today is weak.

3. The early rally to a new high, at 31.03, then the air was let out of it.  We're now down $0.15, at BID 30.23...ASK 30.25.

4. The Bear Flag fractals.

Because of those factors, I will hold it if we break below the Bear Flag on the intraday chart, but I will sell if we break below the low of the Bear Flag on a PRINT basis, which is the 30.01 low at 2:10PM yesterday afternoon.

I'll have a little profit, and will wait to see what develops, and see if I want to re-enter.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:KOMG&Interval=10&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

I have been a bit absent recently but I can see that KOMAG has renewed interest.

It is my feeling that the latest increase mainly has been fueled by short covering, which is really sad having in mind the absolute stellar fundamentals of the company. So here we go:

The short interest increased with more than 50% in October:



From what I am reading on different sites the short case is centered around the death of the HDD as a result of flash disks taking over (an idea that gained popularity when Apple introduced and Ipod model with flash disk)

As always these rare moments when the market reacts to a popular belief absolutely out of touch with the real world there are money to be made.

The HDD is not going to die. To the contrary from being a product that was only used in the PC industry HDD is entering many new high growth areas:



In fact it seems like KOMG biggest problem is to keep up with demand. They have been running at full capacity for 2 quarters (4Q 05 being the third):




It is evident that the HDD market continues to face strong demand:



but for Komag the situation seems even rosier. The continued demand for higher capacity means that the HDD producer cramps more dishes into the same drive:




The result is that the media market (disks) outpaces the HDD market.



The good news is that KOMG is increasing their production capacity in Q1 06. Komag today have to select which orders they can fulfill in Q1 they can start to take in new orders. We had the same situation in Q2 04 and it took 4 quarters to have full capacity utilization again.

KOMG's track record is really amazing. Sales has grown with 80% in one year and EPS has grown with more than 300%:



The result is a balance sheet loaded with cash

Even when the growth is limited by capacity constrains they have managed to grow the earnings. The increased capacity from Q1 will add additional momentum to the growth. I can only wonder who could even dream about shorting this stock. The PE today is around 10 with the outlook it should trade at a PE of around 30 or a PPS of 90.

I am going to hold for a 300% increase unless the fundamentals change which seems very unlikely
 
Could we be looking at an inverse head and shoulder formation?

KOMG is now a hot stock.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 17, 2005, 10:13:10 AM
Bought KOMG at 29.25 on the breakout above 29.17-29.29 (EDIT: 29.19, not 29.29), which has been key resistance.  Stop is a close or obvious late day tank below 27.01, the low prior to the breakout.  Risk: a loss of 7.7%

Sold at 33.60, the Ascending Triangle target, which also is the neckline from the H&S top. 

Gain: 14.9%.