3SOF

still invested and happy 

intrady link:
http://www.windchart.com/intraday?symbol=vphm&country=USA&size=Small&frequency=5+minute&type=Candle&color=Graph+Paper&scale=Linear&overlay=exponential&moving1=50+period&moving2=20+period&moving3=10+period&ind_vol=on&ind_obv=on&ind_sto=on&sto=14-3-3&ind_rsi=on&rsi=8&ind_macd=on&macd=12-26-9&ind_roc=on&roc=16-8

It just looks better as the day goes by.  I think it really wants to break to new highs.  Hang in there VPHM.

today a Triple Ascending Top Breakout was formed 

A triple top breakout is similar to a double top breakout except that the price at which the breakout occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of resistance (area where sellers are willing to sell the stock and create supply that outstrips demand) than what is seen on a double top. The breakout above this level implies that the buyers are now creating more demand than there is supply and therefore the prices are breaking out.

&
quotation from yahoo board:

Institution Ownership VPHM Updated
link:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=VPHM&symbol=CNCT&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=VPHM

NAVELLIER & ASSOCIATES INC Added 929K shares
RENAISSANCE TECH.CORP Added 287K shares
OPPENHEIMER FUNDS INC Added 240K shares
MERRILL LYNCH ASSET MANAGEMENT INC Added 201K shares

I have held on to VPHM for at least a month now waiting for the break out.  The fundamentals are good and the earnings will be good.  I just wonder if the stock will drop on Friday afternoon (before earnings on Monday).  I would like to lock in some of the profits.

I am in the same boat.  The volume is now surging even more and the stock is staying higher so continues to look good.

The bottom line is when you want to lock in those profits it is probably a good idea to do so.  You can see how it was the right thing to do with the birdflu hype stocks.  VPHM may be different because it is a solid BioTech and is supported by real institution money.  This is a good decision to have to make 

I get a little lost on these boards.  I am trying to learn how to read daily & weekly charts but I don't know which chart website to use and what functions. What do you see happening today on VPHM.  Is there a bearish crossover on the MACD lines (which I don't know how to create these on charts..) Could someone please help me?

Brandyjoco

Chart looks great!
Try this 
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

or this
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vphm

Regards,  Mike

Wow thanks.  There is some after hour news on VPHM. The stock is going up afterhours.

Good Luck tomorrow!  I sold some shares today - ahkk - I should have stuck with my long term but I still have 3000 shares.

sounds awesome 
ViroPharma Announces Additional Investment for Vancocin Supply
Thursday November 3, 4:56 pm ET
Company Expands 2004 Manufacturing Agreement With Eli Lilly to Ensure Additional Safety Stock Inventory

EXTON, Pa., Nov. 3, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) today announced the amendment of its manufacturing agreement with Eli Lilly and Company (Lilly) (NYSE:LLY - News) in order to increase Lilly's supply of Vancocin(r) to ViroPharma over and above the supply necessary to meet ViroPharma's expectations for product demand. ViroPharma will pay Lilly an additional amount of up to $4.5 million in addition to the original contract price through early 2006. This investment is representative of ViroPharma's effort to anticipate the potential for increased demand for the product, should the incidence and severity of Clostridium difficile infection continue to increase at a higher than expected rate. Vancocin is indicated for the treatment of antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by C. difficile.

This amendment is also intended to provide ViroPharma with an interim second source of supply to augment the company's third party supply chain, which is expected to be qualified during the first half of 2006. Lilly has agreed to continue to manufacture Vancocin through at least September 30, 2006. The amendment does not effect Lilly's obligation to continue to manufacture Vancocin for an agreed upon period of time in the event that the third party supply chain is not qualified.

While our current supply commitments from Lilly were adequate to provide product above our expectations for product demand, an essential element of our commercialization of Vancocin is also to establish a sufficient safety stock inventory as a precautionary measure,'' commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. We want to ensure that all patients with severe C. difficile disease who need this life saving product have access to it; this amendment with Lilly is important to us and our patients as it helps provide this insurance. In addition, we now anticipate that we will have two manufacturers for the product through the third quarter of next year which should help the transition to our third party supply chain.''

ViroPharma expects that this amendment will result in an additional increase of up to $4.5 million in inventory balances over the period of the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006. The company anticipates that the product manufactured under this expanded agreement will ship to wholesalers during 2006. Future annual guidance for 2006 will reflect this activity.

C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and immunocompromising conditions are associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.

Looks like support intraday in the 21.35 - 21.40 range.  It seems to have broken a downtrend in the recent breakout. 

I suppose it could sell off some after earnings, but the market seems to be in the usual Nov-Dec rally mode.  My entry this time is near the 50 dma.

It seems we could still hit 25 pps in a reasonable time even if it does sell off around earnings. 

What do you guys think?

just awesome 


ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Third Quarter and Nine-Month 2005 Financial Results
07:36 VPHM ViroPharma beats by $0.10; guides Y05 revs above consensus. (20.99 )

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.31 per share, $0.10 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.21; revenues rose to $35.7 mln vs the $29.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY05, sees FY05 revs of $120-123 mln vs. $119.81 mln consensus.

&

Monday November 7, 7:30 am ET
- Company Increases Guidance for 2005 Based on Continued Revenue Growth -

EXTON, Pa., Nov. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2005.

Net sales of Vancocin® were a record $35.7 million for the third quarter of 2005 and $85.5 million for the first nine months of 2005. Operating income in the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2005 was $23.9 million and $60.0 million, respectively, compared to operating losses in the third quarter and nine months of 2004 of $3.3 million and $21.8 million, respectively. The increases in operating results from 2004 to 2005 were driven primarily by sales of Vancocin and the related cost of sales.

Net income in the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2005 was $18.7 million and $41.0 million, respectively, compared to a net loss of $3.3 million and $25.3 million for the same periods in 2004. Net income per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 was $0.33 per share, basic, and $0.31 per share, diluted, compared to a net loss of $0.13 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004. Net income per share for the nine- months ended September 30, 2005 was $1.05 per share, basic, and $0.77 per share, diluted, compared to a net loss of $0.95 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004. The primary drivers of the change from net loss in 2004 to net income in 2005 were the effects of improved operating income, partially offset by debt-related costs and income tax expense in 2005.

"The third quarter of 2005 marked the third sequential quarter of record revenue and strong financial results for ViroPharma, and also marked a time of great momentum throughout our business," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "Vancocin continued to perform well, with prescriptions growing 36 percent over the third quarter of 2004. We hired, and have since launched, our regional medical scientist team, who are now working with key opinion leaders throughout the U.S. to ensure appropriate usage of Vancocin and rapid identification of patients at high risk of serious Clostridium difficile-associated disease. We further reduced our debt from the end of the second quarter, ending the quarter with only $86.7 million remaining. Finally, enrollment in our Phase 1b study with HCV-796 and Phase 2 trial with maribavir continued, and we expect to have the clinical data available from these studies in the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, respectively."

Operating Highlights

Net sales of Vancocin were $35.7 million and $85.5 million for the three- and nine-months ended September 30, 2005, respectively, driven by price increases and prescription demand. Prescriptions increased 36 percent and 33 percent for the three- and nine-months ended September 30, 2005, respectively, as compared to the same periods in 2004. Additionally, while prescriptions in the third quarter remained relatively flat from the second quarter of 2005, decreasing only three percent, net sales of Vancocin increased 24 percent over the second quarter of 2005. This increase was due to three factors: the impact of the price increases effected during the second and third quarters of 2005; the fact that in the third quarter, the higher priced presentation of Vancocin represented a greater percentage of total units sold than in the preceding quarter; and an increase within estimated normal levels of wholesaler inventory at the end of the period. There were no comparable net sales in the 2004 periods, as the Company acquired Vancocin from Eli Lilly and Company in November 2004.

The nine-month 2005 period also included $6.0 million in revenue from the sale of inventory to Schering-Plough pursuant to the license agreement between the companies.

The gross margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased in the third quarter of 2005 to 86 percent from 85 percent in the second quarter of 2005, primarily due to the September 2005 price increase. The gross margin rate was 85 percent for the nine-months ended September 30, 2005.

The total costs and expenses associated with operating income (loss) were $11.9 million and $3.7 million, for the third quarter of 2005 and 2004, respectively, and $32.0 million and $25.7 million, for the nine months of 2005 and 2004, respectively. These changes reflect the net effect of increases related to the Vancocin cost of sales and intangible amortization and decreases related to research and development and marketing, general and administrative expenses. These changes primarily resulted from the Company's purchase of Vancocin and the results of the Company's January 2004 restructuring, which included $9.2 million of costs recorded in the nine- months ended September 30, 2004.

The Company recorded $3.3 million of income tax expense in the third quarter of 2005 and $7.1 million for the first nine months of 2005, which is based on a combined federal and state estimated annual effective tax rate of 15 percent. This resulted from the Company's preliminary study on the availability of net operating loss carryforwards, which indicates that, assuming the Company continues to be profitable, it should be able to utilize all carryforwards over future years, but with annual limitations. As such, the Company believes that taxable income will exceed available carryforwards for 2005.

Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of September 30, 2005 exceeded the maximum milestone threshold of $65.0 million. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $7.6 million to intangible assets in September 2005 and established a corresponding liability to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2005. No purchase price consideration will be due to Lilly relating to net sales occurring in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Debt Highlights

During 2005, the Company recorded a charge of $4.0 million for the change in fair value of derivative liability that related to the make-whole provision on the senior convertible notes, which are no longer outstanding.

The Company recorded a $1.2 million net gain related to the repurchase of $41.2 million of subordinated convertible notes for $39.8 million in the second quarter of 2005. The net gain is comprised of the gross gain of $1.4 million less the write-off of $0.2 million of deferred finance costs.

The increases in both periods for interest expense were due to the interest, amortization of financing costs, and debt discount from the senior convertible notes, issued in January and April 2005. Interest expense also includes the $0.6 million and $0.9 million related to the beneficial conversion feature for the settlement of the make-whole provision of the senior convertible notes in shares of common stock during June and July 2005, respectively.

During 2005 the Company reduced its debt principal by $116.2 million through $41.2 million of purchases of convertible subordinated notes and by the conversion of $75.0 million of senior convertible notes. On July 12, 2005, the Company effected an auto-conversion on the final $15.4 million of the senior convertible notes. The Company had $86.7 million in principal amount of notes outstanding as of September 30, 2005.

Cash Highlights

As of September 30, 2005, ViroPharma's assets included approximately $65.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, which represents a $30.0 million increase from December 31, 2004. This increase is primarily the result of strong operating results less the cash used of $46.6 million for repurchases of convertible subordinated notes and make-whole payments on the senior convertible notes. In addition, there was an increase in cash of $12.5 million related to the exercise of the purchase option by the holders of the senior convertible notes in April 2005.

Looking ahead in 2005

ViroPharma is updating its previously announced guidance for the year 2005 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a complete discussion and disclosure of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below. The Company's guidance does not include non-operating expenses or income.

    For the year 2005, ViroPharma expects the following:
     -- Net product sales:  $120 to $123 million, representing growth of 122
        percent to 128 percent over unaudited net product sales of Vancocin in
        2004;
     -- Cost of sales:  $18 to $18.5 million;
     -- Research and Development:  $11.5 to $13.5 million;
     -- Marketing, General and Administrative:  $10 to $12.5 million;
     -- Net cash flows provided by operations:  At least $60 million.

    Conference Call and Webcast

ViroPharma is hosting a live teleconference and webcast with senior management to discuss the financial announcement, guidance, and other business results on November 7, 2005 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. To participate in the conference call, please dial (800) 391-2548 (domestic) and (302) 709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.

Alternatively, the live webcast of the conference call can be accessed via ViroPharma's website at http://www.viropharma.com. Windows Media or Real Player will be needed to access the webcast. An audio archive will be available at the same address until November 21, 2005.

Great number! I don't know if it will hit $48 this year, but certainly Piper will raise it's guidance once again ($7, $15, $16, $18, and now $24).

 VPHM: JMP Sec Keeps @ Mkt Outperform; Ups Tgt to $28 vs $25; Analyst Notes
Monday , November 07, 2005 15:25 ET

Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)

Analyst Firm:  JMP Securities

Ratings Action: REITERATION

Current Rating: Mkt Outperform

Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $28.00 (+12.00% from $25.00)

Analyst Comments: According to the firm, VPHM has reported 3Q05 financial results with 3Q Vancocin sales of $35.7 million beating their estimate $30.0 million, and 3Q EPS of 31c beating firm's estimate of 23c. ViroPharma raised its guidance for 2005 Vancocin sales from $100-105 million to $120-123 million. The company also narrowed its guidance (shaving the top end) for 2005 R&D and MG&A expenses. Additionally, the firm is raising their Vancocin sales estimates from $113.4 million to $122.6 million for 2005, from $153.8 million to $170.6 million for 2006, from $184.6 million to $201.3 million for 2007, and from $221.5 million to $231.5 million for 2008. These changes result in new EPS estimates: from 89c to $1.04 for 2005, from $1.00 to $1.11 for 2006, from $1.24 to $1.34 for 2007, and from $1.51 to $1.53 for 2008. They believe that continued Vancocin sales growth along with progress from the company's pipeline should drive continued appreciation for the stock.

ViroPharma Shares Fall As Generic Looms
Thursday November 10, 4:10 pm ET
By Heidi Vogt, AP Business Writer
ViroPharma Stock Falls on Generic Worries; Analysts Says Barriers High for Rival Drug

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Viropharma Inc. dropped more than 14 percent Thursday as the specter of generic competition for the drug maker's major antibiotic overshadowed promising study results for an experimental hepatitis C therapy.

Late Wednesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Thomas Wei said in a report that a drug development deal between Akorn Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical firm, and an Indian drug manufacturer could be the first attempt to develop a generic version of Vancocin, an antibiotic that has boosted Viropharma's sales since it bought the drug from Eli Lilly & Co. in December. The drug lost its patent protection before Viropharma bought it.

Akorn and India's Cipla Ltd. said only that their collaboration is for a generic version of an oral anti-infective drug that is primarily used in U.S. hospitals and has market size of about $100 million.
"Given the description of the product that they gave, it's a pretty good chance that it's Vancocin," said JMP Securities analyst Adam Cutler. "That's the only one that comes to mind" that fits the description, he said.
Viropharma shares fell $3.85, or 18 percent, to $18.11 in Nasdaq trading. The drop came even as Viropharma said its HCV-796 drug reduced hepatitis C virus levels in an early, Phase I study. The Exton, Pa.-based company is developing the therapy, designed to interfere with virus replication, with drug maker Wyeth.
Still, Wei and Cutler both said there are significant barriers to entry for a generic version of the antibiotic, which is used to treat infections of the colon and the intestine, including those caused by strains of the staph bacterium that don't respond to more common antibiotics.
Cutler called the stock price drop "a little overblown," because Vancocin attacks infections in such a localized way that proving equivalence is much more difficult than simply proving that the two drugs are equally present in the body.

"It's not absorbed in the digestive process," Cutler said of Vancocin. "It actually passes through the system and cures the infection where it occurs. So you can't just test for blood levels of the drug and assume that it's the same." Instead, generic approval would require a head-to-head clinical trial with Vancocin -- a lengthy and costly process for a company with only $2 million in cash, Akorn's latest public figure.

Wei noted both Viropharma and Lilly have said the manufacturing process for Vancocin is "highly intricate" and involves proprietary technology that may be difficult to reverse engineer.

Cutler argued this aspect was less of a barrier.

"I do imagine that a smart generic company could figure out that manufacturing process. It may take some time, but I do think they can to do it," Cutler said.

Shares of Buffalo Grove, Ill.-based Akorn rose a penny, to $3.90, in afternoon trading on the American Stock Exchange.

DJ ViroPharma Falls Amid Fear Of Generic Competition >VPHM

11/10/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


By Tim Paradis
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) shares lost 17.5% Thursday amid apparent concerns, which some analysts contend were largely unwarranted, that generic competition would encroach on sales of Vancocin, an antibiotic that has resuscitated ViroPharma's fortunes and stock price in the last year.

"I do think that concern is overblown," JMP Securities analyst Adam Cutler said Thursday, referring to the sell-off of ViroPharma shares following the announcement by Akron Inc. (AKN) that it had penned an agreement with India's Cipla Ltd. (500087.BY) to develop a generic form of an undisclosed antibiotic used in U.S. hospitals.

More than one analyst saw Akorn's statement as an oblique reference to Vancocin, which ViroPharma acquired a year ago from Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY).

"I'm not sure that given the current market opportunity and the cost and risks associated with trying to get a generic version approved that it adds up," he said, referring to a market opportunity for generic competition.

"At worst for ViroPharma, a generic version could be on the market in a few years. In the meantime, they should continue to enjoy growing sales while they are the sole provider of Vancocin," Cutler said. He rates the stock "market outperform" and carries a $28 price target.

Joel Sendek, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, wrote in a research note Thursday that while it appears Akorn and Cipla plan to develop a generic form of Vancocin, such an undertaking might prove difficult.

"We continue to believe that while the market is attractive, there are high barriers for any entry for such a generic, including manufacturing and the need for clinical studies, which may be difficult to enroll," Sendek wrote. He maintains his sales estimates for the drug.

Vancocin is used to treat the intestinal bacteria Clostridium difficile, which is often referred to as C. difficile. On Nov. 3, ViroPharma, which has raised prices for the drug several times this year, said it struck an agreement to boost the amount of the drug Lilly makes for ViroPharma. The Exton, Pa., company acquired the U.S. rights to Vancocin from Lilly a year ago.

Cases of C. difficile have increased in the U.S. in recent years, especially at hospitals where it is often strikes patients whose treatments for other conditions have included courses of antibiotics.

Earlier Thursday, ViroPharma said preliminary results from a Phase 1b study of HCV-796, a hepatitis C being co-developed with Wyeth's (WYE) pharmaceuticals unit, demonstrated antiviral effects in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.

Referring to the results of the trial, Cutler said: "They were net positive and warrant further development."

On Monday, ViroPharma shares hit a 52-week high of $24.36 after the company said it swung to a profit from a loss in the third quarter and raised its sales forecast for the year. For the third quarter, revenue surged to $35.8 million from $398,000 a year earlier. Vancocin sales totaled a best-ever $35.7 million during the quarter.

Shares of ViroPharma traded at $18.11, down $3.85, or 17.5%, in 4 p.m. EST Nasdaq trading. Volume stood at 16.1 million shares. Average daily volume is 2.52 million shares.

The stock has risen from about $3 a share a year ago, beginning its precipitous climb in May.

Both JMP Securities and Lazard make a market in ViroPharma shares.