3SOF

LiveLife if you find time this weekend could you post your thoughts/analysis for HOM on that board   http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2173.15
It dipped to the 50 dma this week but found some support there, i am hoping for a pop this week before earnings.. anyones thoughts on HOM ??  Cheers Joe

Hi Joe!   

Boy, this is a really interesting chart... well, here's my stab at it.  I also posted my response at HOM MB.

First some history.  I made some nice gains on HOM earlier this year.    When hurricane Katrina hit, hurricane plays like ZENX.OB (yes, $60 million US ACE temporary roofing contract!) and HOM, which does building restoration after the initial disaster recovery then restoration and reconstruction) all took off.  Yes, HOM is one of 20-40 stocks I monitor.  Recently, Avian bird flu plays like NVAX, HEB, SVA, BCRX, GNBT took off on "speculation" and I kinda lost sight of HOM.

Ok, let's look at the chart below and go over some "concrete" basics first.  If the stock is actively gaining with rising volume and MACD in the positive territory with RSI below 70, then it is a definite short-term "BUY."  And if all three of these criterias are the opposite with RSI above 70, then it is a definite short-term "SELL."

Well, let's go over the "less concrete" issues next.  If you look at RSI for August and September, it is way above 70-80+ which indicated that the stock is "overbought" and selling should follow (purple oval), but instead of a selloff, stock price kept gaining!!! (purple box).  I believe this was due to the hurricane response buy demand on the stock which drove the price up, despite the high RSI.

Next, recent volume "appears" to be increasing, but I believe that is probably "profit taking" sell volume.  If you look at 10 MA, it "peaked" and flattened and begining to go down.  If 10 MA approaches 50 MA, this is also a short-term "SELL" signal.

RSI is below 50, indicating that stock is not "overbought" - typically high RSI (70-80+) is a leading indicator of "sell" activity; however, MACD is in the negative territory.

So what does this all mean and what should we do on Monday?

I also posted the Technical Analysis "composite indicators" from BarChart.com.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2173.msg30941#msg30941

It looks like, short-term, HOM will fall in price.  Approaching the 52 week high for any stock makes traders "nervous" and there is a selloff as the stock rises towards the 52 week high.  If you look at the 1 year Yahoo chart, that's what it appears to be.  Once HOM rebounds after this "nervous" selloff, if you once again see the price rise with increasing volume, MACD in positive territory and 10 MA breaking away from 50 MA, then you may see that 52 week high being challenged.

I also attached the MSN stock rating webpage that covers pro/con and risk/return.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srsmain.asp?Symbol=hom

For Monday, I would be very cautious and carefully watch HOM at market open.

Take care, I hope this helped.

That is a very helpful post with tons of information... If I could applaud you I most definitely would.  I've been looking at this thing a little bit but with all that information I have a pretty good base and might look more solidly into this thing.  I think even if it doesn't bounce the chart still looks pretty good.  Its got a good support level just below so I guess we'll just have to see.  Thanks LiveLife!

Livelife-- enjoyed your thoughtful posts on NVAX MB. Followed you here. Am late in this SANM opportunity. Any thoughts on activity tomorrow? I would like to particpate.

Ad0150hi

ad0150hi,

I can't wait for the "full" return of the bull market!!!

Before you decide on SANM, there are so many stocks that are showing some great rebound potential next week that I am doing a "comprehensive" review of them right now.

Some of the stocks are SANM, CNXT, FNSR, TMTA, CBMX, NVAX and the list is growing! 

I'll post my update later.

MTMA = TMTA

Ooops!

Can't spell TMTA!!    jpm, I corrected my typo.

Quote from: LiveLife on November 06, 2005, 02:07:38 PM
ad0150hi,

Some of the stocks are SANM, CNXT, FNSR, TMTA, CBMX, NVAX and the list is growing!

Hi livelife,

i've been in and out of NVAX for a while but got out a few weks ago. it seems to have found it's bottom for now but as you said,... it's so unpredictable since it swings so heavily just on hype and news or potential news.

so, you think NVAX is ready for a rebound, huh? i'll keep an eye on it in the morning.

btw, what a joke the nvax MB are! i can't even follow the threads have the time. lol

stopthemadness and ad0150hi,

As I posted on NVAX MB tonight, I am currently working on the new "Knowledge Center" MB thread.

For monday, I am really not sure.  All of the previously mentioned stocks, including NVAX have good potential for rebound or gain.  I will have better and more information/analysis by tomorrow.  I will also have an update on the new "swing trading" MB thread for 3SOF public "Knowledge Center"

Good trading!

Live Life-- dont see your post on NVAX board.

Good evening,

As I stated, I believe SANM is a short-term swing trade for me.  I sold on gains this morning (I bought in at $4.25 Friday and sold at $4.52-$4.55) and bought TMTA (26,000 shares!).

I am working on the Knowledge Center "swing trade" thread draft.  I'll post link here later this week.

Good trading!

i think SANM had a pretty good day. i was thinking of also getting out today but it seemed to settle down in the afternoon.

AH  still seemed to have strength so i'm glad i held.

another up day so i'll play it by ear in the morning.

Reposted from HOM MB:

Last Friday, HOM made a strong intraday recovery as it touched the 6-month chart 50 DMA around $4.67 -- indicating it's continuing uptrend. Monday's actions affirmed this and the key milestone was the fact that HOM did not fall through the 50 DMA. So HOM is still bullish for some swing play. I purchased some positions at $4.73 right after it touched the 50 DMA.

However, there are still some risks with HOM. Watch for heads and shoulders formation as the shoulder might be currently forming. If that is the case, more retracement is looming. This week will be critical in determining HOM' next trend. Monitor it closely.

My [2] cents.

after some nice games last week, SANM seems to be really struggling to move forward into the 4.50+

even our "friends" at iwatch are showing some red arrows...

has the momentum fizzled? is it time to take profits and move on?

thanks

Both TMTA and SANM seem to be "flat" today.

I sold TMTA this morning (26,000 shares at $1.70 on limit sell) and bought PAX on an "extremely short speculative" trade at $0.97 - $1.02 (43,600 shares!).  I thought about daytrading PAX before I left for work this morning, but after reading fousc's post about the new CEO, I will hold for now.

TMTA and PAX are David's 3SOF picks (PAX being his "fast" 3SOF).

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3530.msg31575#msg31575

I am still writing the draft for "Knowledge Center" swing trading lessons and I'll post later this week.

Good trading!