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MESA

Started by David Randolph, October 17, 2005, 06:44:49 AM

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David Randolph

More insider selling and the stock refuses to go down, it looks like this insider selling was already expected by institutional investors, it was «priced in».

Consider what I've said on MESA's thread about the Dow Jones Transportation average, making new all time highs last week. This tells me transports is a leading group (which is bullish for the general market according to the Dow Theory), and I want to hold leading stocks in leading groups.

AAI qualifies, despite of insider selling, so I'll keep holding the stock for the foreseeable future.




David Randolph

I find it hard to believe MESA will hold such a steep trendline, but that would be great  :)

But even if the stock breaks this ascending trendline on close (today it will be standing at $11.37) I won't take profits. Why? Because the airline sector is leading the general market to new highs.

I want to be invested in leading sectors. MESA, beside being on a leading sector, is leading its sector on the upward path.

Just follow on the leaders back and keep on holding.

David Randolph

Probably I'll take profits on AAI just when I sell MESA, and the analysis on the two is basically the same, since they're acting like twins.

Again, the airline sector is one of those leading the general market to new highs, and I want to be in that kind of sectors.

No reason to take profits on AAI at this point, just keep on holding.

David Randolph

MESA broke my ascending trendline, which was expected, because the trendline was too steep.

But I can't sell it anyway, here's why:

1) Everything points to an end of the year rally. The transportation index and particularly the airline sector are leading the general market higher.
2) I'm slightly bearish on oil and oil is coming down with the rising US Dollar.

MESA will probably be supported around the $11 area and then push higher again.

David Randolph

We've had two press releases today from AAI, but none had much relevancy as far as the share price was concerned:

AirTran Holdings, Inc. to Webcast Citigroup 20th Annual Transportation Conference

AirTran Airways Launches New Service to the Motor City

AAI came down in tandem with the general market, correcting a bit of last weeks gains. I define today's action as «a normal reaction in a generally bullish trend that will probably resume shortly».

I have an ascending trendline coming at $14.46 tomorrow. I'll keep on holding this airline stock (also read MESA's update).


David Randolph

The DJ Transports Index made a new high yesterday after a short period of consolidation. We got nice volume and a rise on MESA. I'll continue holding.

David Randolph

AAI filed its 3rd quarter 10-Q filing with the SEC yesterday about 2 hours before the close. I don't have time to read it now, but everything seems allright. The transports made a new all time high yesterday and AAI is also near its short term highs. Volume has improved somewhat.

I can only see higher prices for these airline stocks.

David Randolph

Everything is playing out right with these airlines picks: oil is going down as expected, so people are anticipating higher earnings for the airlines that did survive the sector meltdown.

Also, the transports are leading the general market higher, which is a very healthy situation, according to the Dow theory.

I own leading stocks in a leading sector, nothing can prevent me from making some serious money on this bull move, except myself. I will let the trend be my best friend and let the profits run on MESA.

David Randolph

Jesus, AAI made 3 press releases near the close (the third one was after the close):

AirTran Airways Expands Service From Washington Dulles

AirTran Airways Expands Service to/from Boston

Thank You, Please FLY Through; Coca-Cola, Wendy's and AirTran Airways Celebrate Partnership with First-Ever Fly-Thru Drive-Thru

Nice news  :)

The stock jumped 4% to new highs. Oil is going down too, as expected. Nothing can stop these airline stocks from going higher and higher, I believe. Only I can stop myself from making nice returns holding them. But I won't do that, I will continue holding AAI.

puenthouse

Ya dave, i usually pick 3 out of your 6 stocks until 3sof fast came out.  and i usually picked the stock like i do a horse at a race.  Its name.  and im here to say that it never works out.  its usually the stock with the unoriginal name or quote that does better IE ( mesa needs a friend)
  So i tried to got in this one, and dang,  AAi just a little money maker.  I sat on LUV and made better profits, but i was lonley and got out.  Great reason huh :-[ 
This baby is my 3rd highes Money maker.  1. PIXR 2. BRVO  3. AAI
Learning from every trade.

David Randolph

Price and volume are expanding to new highs on MESA. Technically the bull move is perfect. I also like the airline sector in a fundamental way (the companies that survived the sector meltdown).

David Randolph

Quoteand i usually picked the stock like i do a horse at a race.  Its name.  and im here to say that it never works out.  its usually the stock with the unoriginal name or quote that does better IE ( mesa needs a friend)

Lol, you're right puenthouse, even Peter Lynch says he prefers stocks with horrible names, something that puts you asleep is the best. Why? Because people don't look at them so often, so that's where you find the best bargains.

And who would have thought something like «Penny of the day:BRVO.OB» would turn out to be a long term investment?

I think you should choose your stocks based on the justification for the pick, not on name.

QuoteSo i tried to got in this one, and dang,  AAi just a little money maker.  I sat on LUV and made better profits, but i was lonely and got out.  Great reason huh Embarrassed
This baby is my 3rd highes Money maker.  1. PIXR 2. BRVO  3. AAI

Cool  :) I think TRAD should be on that short list, read that thread, it's almost a sure thing, I believe  ;)

AAI is a good friend for MESA, it is even stronger, returning 20% now. I think there's no reason to sell AAI here, because the airline sector is leading the general market to new highs and AAI is a leader on the airline sector. Since I believe the bull run is far from over here, I want to continue holding leading stocks in leading sectors.

David Randolph

MESA will release earnings on Thursday:

«PHOENIX, Nov. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Mesa Air Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: MESA) announced today that it will release financial and operating results for the fourth quarter ended September 30, 2005 on Thursday, November 17th, 2005. The Company will also hold a conference call on Thursday, November 17th, 2005 to discuss its financial results at 11:00 AM MST (Mountain Standard Time), 1:00 PM EST (Eastern Standard Time).»

Also some bullish comments from Zacks:

«Mesa Air Group Inc. (NASDAQ:MESA) posted fiscal third quarter earnings of 39 cents per share, surpassing last year's 28 cents and exceeding the consensus estimate by 34%. The stock is currently trading around $12 per share, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.31. The company has earned $1.25 per share over the past 12 months.»

Now I have a 20% open profit on MESA. The stock closed yesterday at a new high. Fundamentals are attractive and the sector is leading the general market up. I'll keep on holding MESA.

David Randolph

The S&P500 went down a bit yesterday, but the airline sector was up. That's why I like to hold sectors with relative strength, they have that for a reason, and if the market suddenly turns south they will be the ones that will show more resilience, contrary to common sense.

So, the SPX down and AAI up to new highs. My kind of stock.

David Randolph

MESA had a big break yesterday to support. I see a correction in a bull trend, not a change in trend. The transports also closed near support area.

I see MESA coming back and make new highs before the end of the year. But of course I won't let a profit turn into a loss.

For now I'll just continue holding MESA.