3SOF

Calven... you are on fire tonight... I owe you 6 applauses now.  Don't post anything tomorrow or else i won't be able to give you all of them  .  Could you check out the SWIR thread for me and tell me what you think  .

The ideas you posted are generally what I dig...

...but, man  are we far apart on this stop loss thing. I will set stops wicked tight. My average is -3.5%, but I've set them even tighter.

This goes back to the emotion element and a simple bit of math...

Emotion: I bought this stock because it's supposed to go up...if it goes down then I was wrong. Sitting there taking a 8-10 or 20% loss waiting for it to go back up...I fail to see how that could be based on ANYTHING besides emotion. If you did your analysis and concluded that a stock could go down 20%...why would you buy it? To me, it's all mechanical. If I was wrong the position exits on hitting my stop loss and I put the money into either another idea or a trade that is already profitable.

Math: It's just not my style, I see waiting for a losing trade to turn profitable as a loss even if it does turn to your favor. Why? Because that money could have been in a profitable trade while it was 20% underwater...thats just my opinion, I could be dead wrong, but what calven said about compounding? Think about it. Say you wait for a month for a trade to turn from -20% to where you bought it. In that same time period I have a slow month...only 5 trades for an average 5% gain per trade. At the end of the month, I'm up 27% on you...

The roulette thing makes no sense to my mathematical-oriented mind. Each spin of the roulette wheel is a statistically independent outcome. It doesn't matter if red came up n times in a row, on spin (n+1) the odds for red vs. black are exactly the same...I get the point, I just think it's a bad way to illustrate it.

OK, I don't want it to sound like I'm being negative by questioning the things above without contributing a few thoughts of my own so here goes:

Someone earlier today asked me why my charts have no technical indicators on them...GREAT question!

If I asked you to come into my apartment, open your eyes for 1 second, and then shut them and tell me what you saw, I'd bet that you could name most of the important stuff: a guitar, a couple lamps, the couches, the paintings on the wall. If I were to press you, you could probably even recollect the dimensions of the room, the colors of the items in it, the texture of the carpet, the approximate height of the ceilings etc...all that from a 1 second glimpse.

What if I were to ask you to design a robot that could do the same thing you just did? That is, examine an optical image for 1 second and be able to determine all those things...it would require computing power that does not exist!

The brain is designed to recognize patterns and relationships. It is actually quite poor at logical additions, which is what computers do best.

If you understand what a technical indicator is supposed to indicate, your brain can actually "picture" what ANY NUMBER of technical indicators should look like simply by looking at the price action and volume. So whats the point? Why have your brain take this extra step when you can just make your graphing software draw it?

Have you ever had that hunch? That instinct? Your charts and info tell you to do A, but an inner voice says "no, do B". That hunch is right alot, isn't it? It's not some magical force, that is your subconscious mind processing things that you are not consciously looking for. Your subconscious mind doesn't want to do all that "weird" math and stuff, it wants to look at patterns and relationships. It sees things you aren't looking for, and that is what your hunch actually is.

So here's my humble advice: pick 2 or 3 indicators, no more than that. Learn all about them and how they work (you guys have probably already done this). Now memorize the relationship between price + volume and these indicators. Don't memorize the formulas or anything like that...learn what your brain naturally wants to learn, the patterns and the relationships. As your confidence grows, remove those indicators from your charts. You will see things you never saw before, I guarantee it...you will see techinical indicators that no one has invented yet. Your brain, with proper training, will naturally spot relationships between price and volume and eill not be encumbered by any preconcieved ideas about which indicator means what.

What to most people is just a "hunch" or "gut feeling" that they may question will become to you an advantage which can be exploited to consistently take profits out of the market...

Thats why there are no technical indicators on my charts...as I said before, I could be dead wrong...

Repost from NVAX MB today:

stopthemadness,

I wasn't planning to post my "take" on NVAX tonight because what I think will undoubtedly make a lot of people certainly upset and angry.  But I believe some of you (like me) may need to hear this, so here it is.

After weeks of solid blue Institutional/Money Manager activity with almost little or no selling, today there was a day long solid red activity in blocks of 100K - 200K.

I posted in the past that when I see Inst/MMs start selling, that I would sell also.

I am back in "full" swing trade mode, so I held cash several times as NVAX took profit and sold off.  Each time I sold NVAX, I quietly "hoped" that NVAX would rally back and rebound back to $4, $5, $6 range.  I mean, could all of the Inst/MMs be wrong?  Their unwillingness to sell kept my hope going, and I truly believed that the profit taking and selloff were just a temporary price correction.  You could see this level of conviction by the number and comprehensiveness of my posts with NVAX here.

I posted in the "swing trade" MB this morning that due to this "emotional and personal" attachment to Novavax, yesterday I chose to buy back NVAX instead of CDE (see comparison intraday chart NVAX vs CDE) and missed out on around $4,000 gain and worse yet, took several thousand dollars of loss with NVAX: (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.30#bot)

I got approval from my employer yesterday to work part-time so I can trade from market open (6:30 AM PST) to around noon, and today was my first "real" day of daytrading.  As I traded frantically to make up the loss of yesterday, I began to realize that I am a stock trader, not an investor of Novavax.  This point was made "painfully" as I watched the intraday chart for NVAX and my heart sank as I saw the solid red arrows and bars show up on Lycos I-watch charts.

Although CDE gained intraday, I felt very "uneasy" all day.

Will I buy back NVAX in the future?  You bet!  If the rebound activity is there, I will do it tomorrow, to swing trade NVAX!  But I will do it as a swing trader, not as an investor of Novavax.

Richard,

Funny you mentioned "hunch/gut feeling"...

Yesterday when I was faced with two stocks with similar pattern and pricing, my "gut feeling" said CDE, but my "brain" went with NVAX with "hope" of spiking rebound to $4 - $5.

Had I gone with my hunch/gut feeling, I would be typing a different post right now.

Let's trade! "with our hunch/gut feeling!?" 

An article why precious metals rose this week:

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/6139432.xml?p=Metals/News&S=n

Sold CDE and bought BIOM this morning!!!  = BUY ALERT = for swing trading!!!

http://www.google.com/search?oi=stock&q=stocks:BIOM&prev=/search%3Fq%3DBIOM%2B%26hl%3Den%26hs%3DtD8%26lr%3D%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official

BLP25 Liposome Vaccine phase 2 study interim results indicate no safety concerns with reformulated vaccine
Thursday November 17, 6:00 am ET

EDMONTON, Nov. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Biomira Inc. (Nasdaq: BIOM - News; TSX: BRA - News) today announced the interim results of a phase 2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) single-arm, multi-centre, open label study of BLP25 Liposome Vaccine (L-BLP25) showing that the new formulation of the vaccine is not different from the previous formulation from a safety perspective. The reformulated vaccine incorporated manufacturing changes intended to secure the future commercial supply of the vaccine.

= update = My 20-40 stock streaming quote is turning green with market recovery, but BIOM is flat.  I will cash out for the weekend and start back on Monday.

= update = Dang, what to do, what to do... (see BIOM activity4) ... I bought back at $1.65!

Nice strong finish up at close with volume gaining! 

Have a nice weekend!

I will post my analysis after work this evening! 

Richard I would generally agree with what you said about the indicators... to me I believe in the theory of "jack of all trades, master of none" What I mean by that is master 2-3 analysis methods, dont try to utalize everything out there...

For me its this order: Trendlines, volume, chart patterns (channels, wedges, triangles etc)

I throw in the occasional MACD but thats about it.

Not sure i fully agree with you on "wicked tight" stop loss orders. Are you from out east??
When trading stocks with large volatility I believe you need more of a cushion than 3.5% especially if the trend is up. This is especially true for the long term investors.....

I applaud your post though and i see exactly where you are coming from. I just have those two ideas I wanted to point out.

Richard have you read this website. http://chart.mine.nu/ Its probably the best technical analysis website i have ever seen!

-cal

Quote from: calven on November 18, 2005, 06:15:49 PM


Not sure i fully agree with you on "wicked tight" stop loss orders. Are you from out east??

I have a friend visiting from Boston this week...everything is wicked this and wicked that, figured I'd try it out...

I'm willing to listen to anyone's ideas regarding stop losses and where to set them. 3.5% just seems to work for me. I've noticed that most of the picks around here are $1-$5 stocks, I think it's harder to get away with a tight stop on stocks like that.

Tight stops just seem to really suit my individual trading style. Plus, I have yet to loose more than 3.5% on a trade

Repost from NVAX MB:

2ez,

I am sure there are still a lot of Institutional/Money Managers still holding NVAX shares.  But I have posted in earlier posts that weeks of accumulation with little or no selling was very "unusual" but I would recommend sell once the Inst/MMs start selling.  They started selling all day yesterday and today.  (see Lycos I-watch charts below for yesterday and today)

I am a short-term swing trader and cannot afford to wait through the up/down swings.  In fact, I must ride the up/down swings to maximize my gains.

Swing trading (and now daytrading) must be pursued aggressively to make the most of your trades in achieving the goal of making positive gains with each swing trade, to end up with more gains overall than holding through the ups and downs.  That's why I created a separate swing trade MB thread:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.45#bot

Have a nice weekend and good trading!

FYI, after today's activity, I will be checking out VRA on Monday's market open.

Good evening!

Today was a lot better than yesterday's "daytrading from hell" 

I spent a lot of time thinking while updating the contents of the "Knowledge Base" and realized that I much prefer the "slower" pace of swing trading.  I used to buy a stock and go to work, not worrying about what would happen to the stock.  If it gained, then my trade was good, if it didn't, well ... you know.

For this morning, I wanted to see what CDE did (will it continue the last two days of stellar gains or sell off for profit? - well, it chose to take profit early.

When I saw the gains on BIOM, I quickly sold CDE and bought BIOM, took profit and was thinking about buying back NVAX, but BIOM held steady after profit taking ... so I thought BIOM would resume its gain activity and bought back.

For Monday, once again, I would watch for continued gain or delayed profit taking.

Also, VRA had a nice gain today and I will be watching on Monday's market open for my next swing trade stock.  If BIOM continues to gain, I may do a 50/50 split and take profit on both.

= dinner time = to be continued with "simple" TA charts for BIOM and VRA

Took a much needed nap after dinner ... I am posting the "simple" TA charts for BIOM and VRA before bedtime.

BIOM looks like maybe it's repeating a definite cycle for a good swing trade.  VRA may have a "shorter" window for swing trading this cycle ( perhaps 1 day?):

Repost from 3SOF MB (15th post from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3401.msg34056#msg34056

Wow... sometimes we get caught up and don't see the big picture.

First of all, I want to say this.  I came to 3SOF as a newbie who was losing money stock trading.  What I found at 3SOF was a welcome invitation from members who "openly" shared their trading knowledge and experience.  As a newbie, I was not aware about the applaud/smite feature, and I focused on learning (I read for an entire month - sorry I did not applaud the countless informative posts   ).  I will try to make up for the past 4 months!   

Secondly, there are supporters of 3SOF (premium and public members) who devote a tremendous amount of time posting valuable stock trading information (which by the way, I use on a daily basis).  The entire swing trading and knowledge base MB threads are the "combined result" of what I have learned from 3SOF (David/Frederick and supporters) and countless Yahoo finance/Raging Bull MB threads.  These two MB threads are my "thank you" and "passing forward" of the knowledge and wisdom shared by all of you who tirelessly research and post to share the wealth of information so that it can benefit "thousands" of 3SOF members and visitors each day.

You can call 3SOF a "collective" of individual "retail" stock traders (yes, that's what SEC calls us) that come together in a "community forum" to share "real-time" stock trading data on a hourly/daily basis.  As I have emailed David and Frederick before, we are in the "infant/beginning" stage of 3SOF evolving and developing into an entity that I believe will be something "unique and amazing" in the months and years to come.  I have visited many stock trading message boards and no other MB is as "professional and informative" as 3SOF.

As you can see from countless new members to 3SOF, the word about 3SOF is spreading fast around the stock trading/finance circles.  David and Frederick have created (and now supporting this website project full-time.  Thanks!   )  a very special "community forum" for us that will now grow "exponentially" and potentially become an "influential" collective of individual "retail" stock traders/investors.

Can you imagine what 3SOF members do to a penny stock or micro- and even small-cap stock with their buying/selling volume?  In the past, it was not a factor, but as the membership/viewership increase on a daily basis, this volume influence will be a factor (for some stocks, it probably already is) that cannot be discounted in the near future.  Many 3SOF members are now moving 5K, 10K and even 50K+ blocks of shares!!!  Combined, these are Institutional/Hedge Fund/Money Manager level of volume!!!  Do you believe that various brokerages, fund managers, and stock brokers are maybe tracking and monitoring what is posted at 3SOF?  Perhaps.  But if they are, then what happens at 3SOF will now "influence" the movement of stock prices based on 3SOF MBs.  Instead of 3SOF MBs "following" stock trends, 3SOF MBs may now "trend" the stocks they cover.

The numerous supporters of 3SOF who devote themselves to research and post at 3SOF (you know who you are   ) are the "core foundation" of 3SOF, and this newbie is very proud to be a contributing member of 3SOF!!!   

I thank you all, and applaud you all for what you have taught me and what you teach me on a daily basis!  I post because stock trading is my "hobby" and I enjoy the "practice" of stock trading.  As of yesterday, my part-time stock trading hobby has become a full-time practice for me, with my job going part-time.  And I look forward to what 3SOF will become in the future.

BTW, I post regardless of what my rating is.  And I will continue to do what I believe and enjoy.  I post to benefit those that seek stock trading information.  If there are some that don't agree or appreciate the information I am sharing, the countless many that do more than make up for that!

Once again, thank you and post away 3SOF "core" members!!!

- John


This MB thread is the "application" mirror of the swing trading "knowledge base" in the 3SOF Knowledge Center.  You can browse the stock trading basics here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3633.0

I wouldnt doubt it if we have already had professional traders or money managers take a look through the site... Too much success for it not to happen at some point. This website and the 3SOF staff routinely outperform most of the  1 year gains by professional money managers in only 2-3 months!

Furthermore there are over 4k members here already. If each member had say 10k on average to invest with that would already be 40 million dollars if im not mistaken. Now add in all the people that these 4k members may affect with stock tips and the like. We are talking 100 million dollars ! This website is starting to become a force. Just one stock heavily endorsed by "senior" members -  eliteg, 3SOF staff, aussie. stocky, and whoever else im missing could be supported by this community and driven by 3sof members alone. Just something to think about...

Applaud your post ^ above

Hey folks - just wrote an article on a particular trading pattern called the Wolfwave. I think you all will find it helpful and very usable. I would encourage you to read more about the WW pattern in the other section of 3stocks message board system under "Technical Analysis" or you can use this link: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3732.msg34117#msg34117

Cal