3SOF

stopthemadness,

Pretty bad for me too, I got in TIII first on a smaller position and made money on a trade, then got back in at 3.09 on a larger position only to miss the op to get $2K on another trade, and now its way down.  Bought NVAX yesterday also hoping for a bounce, but sold it today in light of two things:

1.)  The delay of the vaccine funding bill and all the talk of budget cutbacks on capitol hill
2.)  All the red "sell" arrows on lycos I-watch together with what looked like large block sells here and there

I could be wrong, but it seems like staying in that stock is hoping for a partnership or a new drug, and who knows when either will happen.  In a week or two per the CC there may be new info on that, but the first CC I listened to said the same thing.

Anyway, back to TIII, would like to see a doji candlestick here, but with 5 minutes left to go, that doesnt look to be in the cards.

Quick question to David, you mentioned a very low P/E of 6.4 for the company, but etrade shows a P/E of 14ish, and yahoo says 14.92.  Does this influence your decision for Monday?

i would say the only saving grace for nvax was that the volume was at its lowest since oct 7... then in the next 2 weeks we hit the high $5.

only 12,000,000 the last 2 days... so maybe it's not massive overall dumping.

wierd close for tiii today too.

Good morning !

I wouldn't touch NVAX again for some time, since many people bought the stock solely based on the Bird Flu mania, and that mania seems to have fizzle. More, the general market is in rally mode, so theme stocks are a bit forgotten. I would use any rally to unload NVAX, but good luck for all people holding.

Considering TIII, I think KCScott did well in buying on Friday.

QuoteQuick question to David, you mentioned a very low P/E of 6.4 for the company, but etrade shows a P/E of 14ish, and yahoo says 14.92.  Does this influence your decision for Monday?

No, I think Yahoo and E*Trade are still not taking into account the 3rd quarter earnings from the company. My P/E Ratio comes from annualizing the 3rd quarter earnings of $0.12 per diluted share.

I have very little doubts the stock will come back, make new highs an that I'll be able to sell at $4.

So my trading plan remains the same: take profits at $4 or sell only at the last day of the month because then the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio will be reset.

David,

You guys are doing great things and I think the "3 SOF Fast" concept is a great one, however we're near the end of the month, still have money to invest, and are holding positions, such as TIII. 

It seems unlikely with about a week to go that this will reach $4, and you advocate selling at the end of the month because thats when the cycle will begin again.  Why close out an existing position if at that time it's doing great and moving up continuously or good news comes out near the end of the month.

On December !st all positions are abandoned and unless there are replacements, we should sell off?

Very nice movement today (so far) for TIII.
Today, volume is 5x halfway through the day.

I am also in agreement this should be held after Nov. 30, however, if David's portfolio rules dictate sell, then so be it.

Perhaps it will be a candidate for 3SOF?

I will continue to hold, regardless as I believe the uptrend will continue on past January and see

I hope the interest of those in this thread will remain continue if it gets moved to the Previous 3SOF fourm.

Good Luck to All

Quote from: dakdust on November 21, 2005, 09:36:28 AM
David,

You guys are doing great things and I think the "3 SOF Fast" concept is a great one, however we're near the end of the month, still have money to invest, and are holding positions, such as TIII. 

It seems unlikely with about a week to go that this will reach $4, and you advocate selling at the end of the month because thats when the cycle will begin again.  Why close out an existing position if at that time it's doing great and moving up continuously or good news comes out near the end of the month.

On December !st all positions are abandoned and unless there are replacements, we should sell off?

Thanks for your questions dakdust 

On the last day of the month at the close I will sell all positions and I'll buy new stocks at the open of the first day of the month. The 3 SOF Fast Portfolio is like an income job, one must get paid at the end of the month, right?

I can replace shares with other or in special cases I can buy 1 stock that I previously held.

I don't think it is impossible to see $4 in TIII before the end of the month, there are still 5 trading days in November (there's the Thanksgiving day on Thursday), that would mean an average daily rise of just, what, 5.72% 

I'll continue with my trading plan for TIII, sell at $4 OR at the last trading day of the month.

Quote from: KCScott on November 21, 2005, 12:58:35 PM
Very nice movement today (so far) for TIII.
Today, volume is 5x halfway through the day.

I am also in agreement this should be held after Nov. 30, however, if David's portfolio rules dictate sell, then so be it.

Perhaps it will be a candidate for 3SOF?

I will continue to hold, regardless as I believe the uptrend will continue on past January and see

I hope the interest of those in this thread will remain continue if it gets moved to the Previous 3SOF fourm.

Good Luck to All

Yes, fundamentals for TIII are so great that the stock is a strong candidate for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

Good luck to all, and go to $4 TIII, go !

What happens: from +5% to -4% ? Someone big is unloading or hunting for the trial stops or any bad news that we still don't know?

It did this last week too when the stock hit 3.21.  I could be wrong but it seems like profit taking, there seems to be some resistance around 3.20 that its been hitting even though we got to 3.29 at one point today.  This is a pretty volatile stock, but it seems to want to go higher.  If last week is any indication, now is a good time to buy.

Quote from: tokyopua on November 22, 2005, 03:17:02 PM
It did this last week too when the stock hit 3.21.  I could be wrong but it seems like profit taking, there seems to be some resistance around 3.20 that its been hitting even though we got to 3.29 at one point today.  This is a pretty volatile stock, but it seems to want to go higher.  If last week is any indication, now is a good time to buy.

Man, it was what, 2.93 when I posted, and closed at 3.15 40 minutes later!  What a nice rally.  Seems anytime somebody unloads, this baby just keeps coming back!  If we hadnt have hit 4 PM it was heading right back to 3.2 I think.  Tomorrow should be a nice day, should at least jump back to 3.2 at the open.

that "dump" on low volume was so transparent... you knew in the last 20 minutes it would get back up. i have a good feeling about tomorrow!

Good morning !

I was wondering if I should buy TIII for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, so I went on looking a bit deeper into the company's fundamentals.

The last quarter was great (it was the 1st quarter), but it was influenced by several factors and seasonality:

«The Company's operations are subject to seasonal variations primarily as a result of the Company's principal products, NIDs, are typically installed on the side of homes. During the hurricane season, sales may increase based on the severity and location of hurricanes and the number of NIDs that are damaged and need replacement. Conversely, during winter months when severe weather hinders or delays the Telco's installation and maintenance of their outside plant network, the sales have been adversely affected until replacements can be installed (at which time sales increase). Accordingly, the first and fourth quarters generally contribute more revenue than the second and third quarters.»

They benefited a lot from Katrina and Rita and winter will bring lower sales. That means my extrapolation of this first quarter earnings maybe wasn't accurate (the company had net earnings per share of $0.12, in a year it would be $0.48, and that would mean a P/E Ratio of $3.14/$0.48 = 6.54, which would be terribly cheap.

Also, I'm not so bullish on small caps now, as you can read on my Current General Market Overview

So I'm not willing to wait to see if the stock will hit $4, I will take profits around today's open.

still holding 
why?

TIII: Short Interest UP 389.2% to 76.5K in Nov 2005
Friday , November 25, 2005 13:21 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for TII Network Technologies, Incorporated (NasdaqSC: TIII) INCREASED 389.2% to 76,539 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL  OCTOBER        NOVEMBER       CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
TIII              15,645          76,539         +60,894      +389.22%           1

Based on TIII's 20-day average daily share volume of 554,272, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

please read carefully:
http://www.tii-industries.com/pdfs/05r1109-TIII-06Q1_Earnings-FINAL.pdf
updated chart:

We are getting an interesting trend.. in again @3.25..

David: ON FIRE   

nice nice nice 
I wonder if this wiil pass David's filters tomorrow , to join to 3sof portfolio......