3SOF

Thanks for these two research pieces (well, Cramer's «it rocks» isn't great research, but he says he'll write a piece about the stock).

Technically TSM is absolutely lovely, breaking out of a long lasting accumulation process. I have a 7% open profit on the stock, I'll let it run.

Quote from: David Randolph on November 25, 2005, 08:01:03 AM
Thanks for these two research pieces (well, Cramer's «it rocks» isn't great research, but he says he'll write a piece about the stock).

Technically TSM is absolutely lovely, breaking out of a long lasting accumulation process. I have a 7% open profit on the stock, I'll let it run.

David,

Agreed that the Cramer note has to be taken with a grain of salt, sometimes a blessing from him is a curse in disguise, lol.

As it happened we lost almost 1% on the stock today.  Could be normal retracement, or the half day, etc.  But there was a bit of news that could be interpreted negatively, as it appears that Samsung has agreed to produce some chips for Qualcomm.  This has led some Hyundai financial analysts to specualte that Samsung will enter the foundry business.

My take is that short term and maybe even long term this will have no major impact on Taiwanese foundries for the following reasons:

1.) Samsung will never be a dedicated foundry since it does its own chips as a first priority.  This limits their output to excess capacity, and also limits what customers they can have (Micron would never outsource to them for example).

2.) Samsung is not very strong at logic chips (these patterns have very complex shapes, often non-repeating), and is mainly only strong at memory (these patterns are usually symetrical and repeat all over the chip).  So, they would not be a likely contender for any of the AMD or Intel business in any event, as TSMC can do both logic and memory very well.


On an note unrelated to TSM, would you consider getting back into AOB sometime soon David? 

I just saw the stock has been knocked down again to 5.16 recently after a large private placement announcement on stock at $4.80 for 12,500,000 shares.  It is 5 cents below the 50 DMA and 58 cents below the 13 DMA, but that seems to be artificial now due to the dillution announcement (still needs stockholder approval, but I think the insiders are a majority so it should be passed).  Seems like a decent buy for sure if it went to $4.80, just not sure if it will get there. I personally would have bought it today at 5.06 if I had thought to even look...

 

Thanks for your fundamental hindsight on TSM, personally I don't know much about the semiconductor industry, my analysis just says TSM is cheaper than most of its peers and the chart is bullish. That's enough for me to hold the stock, but with time I like to get to know stocks better, and you're giving me great help here on TSM. Again, thank you tokyopua 

I looked to AOB and the chart now is bearish. Given the reasons for the drop I think you're right, the stock may recover some ground here, but I'm not looking to buy at this moment. The trend isn't bullish anymore, and I only want stocks with bullish trends or with attractive fundamentals and very comprehensive businesses to me.

I don't know much about AOB's businesses, though I held the stock for some time. Do you? Michael does, if he reads this possibly he may explain some more about this company and his trading strategy.

Probably what happened on Friday at TSM was «normal retracement, half-day», etc  , I'll continue holding the stock.

Quote from: David Randolph on November 28, 2005, 07:25:43 AM

I looked to AOB and the chart now is bearish. Given the reasons for the drop I think you're right, the stock may recover some ground here, but I'm not looking to buy at this moment. The trend isn't bullish anymore, and I only want stocks with bullish trends or with attractive fundamentals and very comprehensive businesses to me.

I don't know much about AOB's businesses, though I held the stock for some time. Do you? Michael does, if he reads this possibly he may explain some more about this company and his trading strategy.

Hi David,

Thanks for the encouragement on TSM.  I like the company, but only want to hold while the chart is bullish, too.

Today we went down with the overall selloff, but the stock looks to have closed one cent above a support line tested twice at 9.28.  The stock does seem to be a bit overbought recently, but otherwise still seems to be looking good.

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=TSM&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

As for AOB, I have been trading it recently a lot though I did hold it for as long as 2 months in the past.  My last hold was for just one day from a buy in around 5.5 and a sell around 5.9.  I went ahead and bought twice today as the stock dipped to 4.9.  I agree that for a solid trade this is risky given the chart, I am only "hoping" that the stock doesnt go below the new offering price of $4.8.  But if it does and I have to hold it again long term to get some gain from it, I can do that, Q4 is supposedly its strongest earning season, so I expect it to move back up over the next 2 months.

Good luck for AOB tokyopua 

You know what, I'm going to sell TSM today. My general overview tells me to be more active, buying and selling, because not a lot of big moves are expected at this stage.

Maybe the $9.57 resistance will be more important than the $9.28 support you talk about. Also, the $SOX is losing its fight against resistance.

The general market is mixed now, maybe some more move up but I'm not expecting the current rally to continue for much longer (yesterday probably was the start of a distribution phase around current levels, for a pretty ugly sell off next year).

I'll take my 5% profit on TSM and move on, buying and selling stocks, and preparing to short some when the bear arrives.

Good luck if you continue to hold.

AOB started to show promise in the morning, but hit the peg level at end of day.  At least it does seem the downside is still limited to $4.8, seems it can only go up.

Things are looking a bit bearish for $SOX, I have to admit.  I had to dump AMD too at the open today on bad news about their memory division called Spansion having wide losses.  This was good as it proceeded to lose a full point.

I decided to hold TSM anyway today, and I will just see what happens tomorrow.  Its a homing pigeon with a doji star so maybe a trend reversal for TSM tomorrow.  If so I will probably hold until at least the next resistance level if it goes up.  I will not take any loss on TSM, so if its set to go below say 9.21 or so I will dump it also.

Well, doubt anyone will read this thread much anymore, and I am not sure how long I will be here myself.  TSM did well today, added 3%.  I would be happy if I hadnt just lost 8% in AOB, lol.

Anyway, Merrill Lynch has upgraded their price target for TSM in the Taipei exchange, the taget is 71 dollars!... NT dollars that is.

Now, that works out to like $2 US, so I was a bit confused.  But each ADR share apparently equals 5 ordinary taiwan common shares in which the target price = (5X $71)/$34 = us$10.44.

Not 100% sure about the math here, but it seems to make sense, and the stock did rally today on the news.

I was still reading it. Got out yesterday at $ 9,35, litlle over 5% gain  . Didn't think it would go up much further yesterday, also had no time to watch. I'm happy  .

Good luck with this one,
Amarens

Oops. Just saw my bank sold it at $ 9,48  Even happier 

Amarens

Well, it still looks like I am the only one hanging on here for decent gains.  Today was bullish, though we needed only 2 cents more to have closed above 9.79 resistance:

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=TSM&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

But all signs look good for another up day in the overall markets tomorrow, and once TSM breaks 9.79 who knows where it can go.

50 day EMA now crossing the 200 day EMA today also giving me a warm and fuzzy Golden Cross, mmmm.   

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=tsm

Now if AOB will only start going back up (even though I am playing on house money since I already made so many gains there)...

Hi,

I am pretty new on the board, and do not know a lot about anything, but I enjoy reading and learning.

I kept TSM when Dave sold, more by mistake than anything else, but now I am happy, so i will continue reading this thread.

I am sorry I cannot be of much help with my comments, but do not feel alone here.

Pmarroquin,

Well for the moment it looks like you were lucky to hold.  And I do appreciate the company 

My current take is that if the stock closes above 9.79 tomorrow, thereby breaking out of a resistance band, then we can keep monitoring it to maybe go to the Merrill Lynch price target during the next month, assuming the tech rally continues, and more to the point, semiconductors.

So we want to watch the SOX, and get a feel for how INTC and AMD trade.  I also follow AMAT and KLAC to see what they are doing.  As long as they stay bullish then so should TSM.  I keep a page on my Power Etrade that monitors different sectors realtime, I manually entered the above stocks and some like FEIC and VECO as well just to "get a feel" for how they are moving on a given day.

David did warn of a potentially bearish semiconductor market, so we have to watch for that.  But unless markets are really bad tomorrow, I really see TSMC breaking resistance.

http://www.marketvibrations.com/index.php?subaction=showfull&id=1133502749&archive=&start_from=&ucat=1&

Nice article about TSM, and some good technical analysis.  He makes a good point about psychological resistance at $10, and if we break that, it will have great momentum.  THe stock hit 9.92 at its high today, so its not out of the question that this happens tomorrow if we keep a bull market.

Fingers crossed 

well... it did break 9.79 but only intraday and closed lower.... I guess I will be thinking of selling if I don't see a change by monday.. what do you think?

Yeah, I will be watching closely on Monday too.  I was actually thinking to sell it today to take profits since I got burnt on that whole BCRX thing.   But I realized that was somewhat irrational and kept it.

If I had my money in AMD today it would have been much better.  Of course, I was in AMD at the wrong times this week and sold, lol. 

OTOH, maybe I just need the patience with TSM, since it has made similar moves to AMD recently.  The market was flat today and TSM moved big yesterday so really the small loss today isnt a surprise.