3SOF

Great posts Melf Elf, once again [applaud] 

I've got quite a few to catch up with you on, and may not manage all before Monday am.

As far as AAPL goes, I appreciate your analysis, and looking at it, that bearish doji hangman is a bit of a concern, as are your posts regarding the MACD.  There was a big gain on Thurs as the market digested the iPod news, and it was spread over just about every news site/channel globally - obviously a lot of interest.  This week brings us another special event on the 18th - obviously not as big as last weeks, but this one will deliver new powerbooks and power macs - if they're good, it should generate some further positiv outlook for this quarter.

At this stage, what I would like to see is AAPL holding onto some of Thursday's gains, with possibly a retrace back to the old ascending trendline - but hang on, I just looked at the log chart and it did exactly that on Friday, posting 52.79.  As far as I can tell from the chart, that trendline is rising about .30 per day, so therefore, I would like too see it hold $53.  At the moment, I think this will be the real test of whether recent action was just a short term blip on an otherwise strong upward trend that is set to continue.

Maybe friday morning's re-test was all it needs - we'll see tomorrow 

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 17, 2005, 02:48:47 AM
At this stage, what I would like to see is AAPL holding onto some of Thursday's gains, with possibly a retrace back to the old ascending trendline - but hang on, I just looked at the log chart and it did exactly that on Friday, posting 52.79. 

It sure did, Scotsman!  You're really on the ball this morning, catching that.  Applause.  That's like what DNDN did, breaking the up trendline to re-test 5.88-5.89, then going down to 6.05 on Friday to re-validate "The Basonista Trendline" as support. 

well AAPL is back down there again today - as I write this it is posting 52.90.  However, I jumped out this morning at 53.75 to get some GTE.  On the sell AAPL side that appears to have been a good move, but haven't seen any gain on GTE from my buy price yet.

Looks like your Doji star hangman was confirmed and we'll see a bit of pullback going into this week.

I'll see how things pan out, and may lookm to get back into AAPL at a better point.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 17, 2005, 12:55:32 PM

Yeah,the low of Friday's Doji Star Hangman got taken out.  Additionally,The NASDAQ Composite is on its third day of a rally back to DOUBLE resistance at 2074: the broken channel and the 200 DMA. 

AAPL is down $0.85 on yesterday's takeout of the The Doji Star Hangman low, and the NASDAQ Composite failed again today to get through 2074 DOUBLE Resistance.  Today's high was 2072.50.
Be careful with long postions.  This could get nasty, like in early October, if we take out last week's low.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 17, 2005, 02:21:25 PM

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 17, 2005, 12:55:32 PM

Yeah,the low of Friday's Doji Star Hangman got taken out.  Additionally,The NASDAQ Composite is on its third day of a rally back to DOUBLE resistance at 2074: the broken channel and the 200 DMA. 

AAPL is down $0.85 on yesterday's takeout of the The Doji Star Hangman low, and the NASDAQ Composite failed again today to get through 2074 DOUBLE Resistance.  Today's high was 2072.50.
Be careful with long postions.  This could get nasty, like in early October, if we take out last week's low.

Strange...I just posted the above, but it appeared down the list as yesterday's post 

Sorry if this is a double post.  Here's the chart again.

If the 'structural trend' is what we see: UPTREND , you should have a deep structural change in the business to change this LONG TERM trend.
In fact I do not believe in this will change... (you don't change a winning strategy).

Thus I think that this is one of those stocks to: BUY and KEEP ... (and sleep well...)

All strategies that are based in SHORT a long term UPTREND stock, most of the times / statistically generate losses.

Look, imagine if you just kept your shares (or your CALLs) since the 1st of January... and compare your performance.

Sometimes in investing strategies: simple is beautiful: LONG TERM TREND gives you the most likely FUTURE TREND

Part of this trend is based in the unexpected GOOD news that are more frequent that the bad ones... and that you're not able to predict (when news arrive to the media it is too late to buy)... the only way is to keep the stock.

In this kind of stocks every weakness is a purchase opportunity (my strategy)

Sleep well,


Based in this simple strategy I ONLY HAVE TWO STOCKS PERMANENTLY since last year:

AAPL (one year performance + 100%)
HITK (one year performnace + 150%) – defensive sector / healthcare

Fully agreed!!!

My first ever stock purchase (this spring) was AAPL - being a big fan of their technology and knowing a lot about the company and their prospects it was a no-brainer.  Unfortunately, at the time I was a total newbie - bought right before the big post earnings drop this spring, and then sold out once I had broke even again.  Now that was a stupid move   I'd be up over 70% now!!!

Been in and out a couple of times since, but never for long enough, and haven't had the confidence to just buy and hold it, even though last time I bought (in the low 50s) I told myself that it wass till Christmas at least.  The problem with getting into short term swing trading is it is real hard to just hold onto the long term gems like AAPL.

Personally, I now would like to see a pullback to the mid 60s as a good entry, and I see there is a lot of sentiment that AAPL is overbought and overvalued.  However, with their strategy for 2006 looking incredibly strong (Intel Macs in January, plus poss. Mac Mini "Tivo killer"  set to revolutionize  living room home entertainment, Apple style), I really think that 2006 will be the year of Apple making major inroads in the PC marketplace.

AAPL split at $90 in March 05, I would be very surprised if they were not trading above this level (i.e. double the value) bay March 06.

All I gotta hope for is that pull-back, but AAPL has a way of just steaming upward, leaving you in the dust....

Get some knowledge...
Uses Apple Computer as an example.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3822.0

Investor's Business Daily
Improve Your Returns By Feeding Best Stocks, Starving Laggards
Juan Carlos Arancibia
A key point about making money with stocks is that when you come upon a winner, it should take up a bigger share of your portfolio.
Once you've identified your top performer, you want to add shares at key intervals. The market's top-fuel stocks are where the real money is made. Plowing more cash into those leading stocks is called the force-feeding method of managing a portfolio.

To fund additional buys, sell your underperforming stocks. Those are the ones treading water or showing a small loss. Your money is better used on better performers.

When you buy extra shares, do it at points where there's less risk. A leading stock will offer new buy points as it rises from its breakout. One of the most common is the first or second time the stock pulls back to its 50-day moving average and finds support there. The pullback should occur in light volume. If the price holds near the 50-day, you may buy more shares as the stock rebounds.

Another good spot is when the stock makes a 52-week high or clears a short-term consolidation such as a base-on-base or three-weeks-tight pattern.

Keep in mind that any time you're adding to a position, you should buy a smaller number of shares than in the previous purchase. If you bought 500 shares as a stock broke out of its base, you'd buy, say, 200 shares on the pullback to the moving average. On the next purchase, buy 100 shares. By "pyramiding" up your position, you're concentrating your cash in your biggest winner.

Conversely, trying the opposite tack -- the "averaging down" method of buying stocks as they're falling to get a lower average cost -- can be risky. Stocks that fall in heavy volume tend to keep falling. If you try to grab stocks on the way down, you could get cut by the falling knife.

Apple Computer (NasdaqNM:AAPL - News) has been a hot stock in 2005, its earnings and sales growing rapidly. The firm's iPod digital music player and PC business have both fared well. Since the fiscal fourth quarter ended in September 2003, earnings per share have grown at a triple-digit pace.

Apple formed a seven-week pattern starting in mid-February of this year (point 1). The stock then fell further, undercutting the earlier base (point 2) and resetting Apple's count to create a fresh, first-stage base.

The stock broke out Aug. 12 (point 3), clearing its 44.48 buy point. That was the time to make the initial, and largest, purchase. Apple eased in the next three weeks, then cleared a 52-week high (point 4). That was the first opportunity to add shares. Although not true breakouts, any time a stock reaches a 52-week high is a positive move.

Apple pulled back to its 50-day on Oct. 12 and immediately found support (point 5). That was another time to add a smaller number of shares. Apple has climbed 52% since its breakout, including brisk gains from follow-up buy points.

 in the last two sessions. The market have confirmed today the Bearish Engulfing candle did yesterday, so the bottom of this channel is very near ( 70.25$ ) so take care. The chart of this baby is not famous, shows very bearish signals.

Miguel
www.ac-investor.blogspot.com

AAPL making new 52 week's high 

price target........$ 100

Indeed

This one was so obvious, given AAPL's previous moves on positive product releases, and the storming christmas season they have been having - there have been many stories about iPod shortages, but that is simply because they were all selling out!!!  The street's estimates were for 10 million iPods to be sold in the Christmas quarter - Jobs reported that they sold 14 million!!, plus earnings look to be way above what they street expected.  I was not about to miss out on this one again and bought in before new year at 73.70.  Now (despite a subsequent pullback to below $71), I'm very glad I did, just a shame I did not hold on to previous positions I had in the low 40s and low 50s last year.  This time I think I will hang on a bit longer.  Expect more fireworks next week when they release earingings, it should be very interesting.  AAPL just keeps making new highs and analysts just keep raising their targets   No wonder - they keep making and then breaking them!  (Though I do know UBS have quite a history of pumping AAPL)

AAPLE shares still down every day with double of daily average volume !!!

Apple Computer is under pressure after it slips under the support area near 75.50, so now only the MM50 perhaps can sustain this selling pressure. All indicators until this moment are Bearish. After AAPLE reported there earnings we saw all days many selling pressure in the stock price, only up one day with light volume.
MM50 is now at 72.95 and the MM200 at 51.58 

Please do a search for the apple (AAPL) thread. There is already one started.


Thanks,
cal 

After this big Pull back of AAPLE , now we can see some rebound in this stock.
According to chart above we have a very good support near 70$ level, and the volume also has decreased in the last sessions, so perhaps is a signal that the sellers can stop here, so if the stock rebound from here we have only a resistance in the top of the channel near 75$.
Resistance : 75.76 Support : 70.97 

Miguel