3SOF

Quote from: la-onda on November 22, 2005, 05:05:01 AM
AOB: Short Interest UP 33.3% to 385.8K in Nov 2005

Monday , November 21, 2005 16:15 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for American Oriental Bioengineering Inc (AMEX: AOB) INCREASED 33.3% to 385,759 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL       OCTOBER     NOVEMBER        CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
AOB              289,320         385,759         +96,439       +33.33%           1
Based on AOB's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,712,235, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

La-onda,

I noticed you follow short interest a lot, and it seems you made a killing in TIII today based partly on that (wish I had held too!!!).  So what is your take on AOB and the short interest now in light of the recent private placement, the current price drop, etc.?

I have bought some AOB shares yesterday, agreeing with Michaels last comments

Looks like my analysis was fairly accurate...

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3480.msg34278#msg34278

Exactly Calven...  ... feels like i want to get back into AOB again... i can feel the rebound is just around the corner.. watch AOB folks!! 

CHART 2:

Well, I just averaged down a bit here with 1000 more shares at 4.60, wish I had caught the dip at 4.50.  I dont know what happened, but there was no bad news that I could see, so it seemed OK to buy.

never average down in the stock market! this might head to 3.70

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=AOB&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

I think I found the reason for the current drop:

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10251542/

A similar thing happened to NVAX about 3 weeks ago off a Motley Fool article, which also cited Vertex.  Basically its a pattern that Motley Fool does, they find one biotech stock to be the bad guy, then they compare to their shining pick, Vertex.

This article above was a bit more unique, but in the case of the one they published with NVAX as the "bad guy" stock, the Yahoo MB folks found the SAME article had been published 4 times, only thing that changed each time was the name of the "bad guy" stock.  It was some drivel about how the authors friend had steered his daughter's investments away from stocks like NVAX and towards stocks like Vertex.  Then the "funny" twist is that his daughter is a toddler, blah blah...

Anyway, I am not too worried about the stock hitting 3.70 or whatever the stockta support shows, the last time it did, I rode it right back to sell it at 7.20, I am prepared to ride this out again.

Quote from: bigdogs99999 on November 21, 2005, 12:04:19 PM
Long term, I like AOB, but it is ahead of itself.  It was a buck and little change less than 6 months ago.  There are significant profits for many people, some of whom will take those off the table.  The "trendline" cannot continue ... this is not a double digit stock for awhile fundamentally.  The 200 day moving average is a little over $3 (about 3.15) and it is somewhere south of the $5.50 today that it is safe to buy.  If this stock had gone from $1.25 to $3.15 in less than six months, all holders would be thrillled for the ride.  Cramer is an idiot ... but hogs do get slaughtered.    Be patient.  Buy lower.... 

I love quoting myself.     The 200 day moving average is now up to $3.40ish and the 100 is a bit over $4.  The company is not really a biotech if one looks at their product line, it is a consumer product company in over the counter "health" products.  Below is a description of a lead product.  Again, patience!!!  Why does everyone think that something that was $1 six months ago will necessarily continue the rocket up?    

From AOB's website:

SoyPeptide Beverage
The product contains Soybean Peptide which is extracted from the Soy Protein Isolate through enzyme reaction, is composed of 3 to 6 amino acid with molecular weight less than 1,000d. Peptide is absorbed and digested by our body more directly than amino acid, is low in sensitivity and zero in cholesterol that is good to health. It also consists of complete plant protein, rich in 9 kinds of essential amino acids that make rapid recovery of energy, as well as accelerating the power of brain. Further, it is also good for energy metabolism. This product is added with soybean peptide and condensed ribes nigrum, which is rich in vitamins and minerals, is very good to our health.
It is best as beverage and a substitute of drinking water.
[Ingredients]Purely filtrated water, Sugar, Fructose, Condensed ribes nigrum, Soybean peptide, Malic acid,Citric acid, Sodium citrate, SodiumCurboxymethl cellulose, Iso-vitamin C, Asipatan, Dietary flavour

Back in again at 4.45....hope the downturn has settled

I'm back in also @$4.41, hopefully this will head north

I have not take a position yet i'm still closely watching & waiting ... i bought NVAX today though

nice summarization:
Thursday, December 01, 2005

American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB:AMEX) (11-30-05 Closing Price $4.43 USD) Strong Buy - 12-month target price: $8.19. Part 1 of 2.

Overview:
Every now and then, the market gives us some gifts. Chances to get in on stocks in great companies at greatly discounted prices. Right now that is what is happening in American Oriental Bioengineering right now. These opportunities are often short lived, and it is imperative that we take advantage of them. That is why I am delaying my report on Sunwin International Nutraceuticals (SUWN.otcbb) and I am instead issuing a strong buy recommendation on American Oriental Bioengineering.

Fundamental Quantitative Analysis:

antitative Analysis:There are so many reasons to like American Oriental Bioengineering, in fact if there were a single Chinese stock out there that I would recommend, it would be American Oriental Bioengineering. American Oriental Bioengineering has been a major story of the summer, a story which has started to turn heads on wallstreet just a little bit. AOB hit a 52-week low back in May, $1.02, at that point people seemed to realize that here you had a company which between years of 2002-2004 had a record of increasing revenues from $10.2 million for the full year 2002, to 32.0 million in 2004, an increase of 213% in 2 years.

The company has diluted the share pool over this 2-year period, EPS growth is more modest but still astounding. EPS grew from 0.106 to 0.231, this represents at 118% increase in EPS for the period, or a compound annual growth rate of 48%. This is an amazing story of value creation. Let us assume that they can maintain this growth, this would imply that if their P/E ratio remains static, that you will get a 48% return on investment. This high rate of growth makes AOB very attractive to growth oriented investors.

Value investors should also find AOB to be a very attractive buy. There is only one analyst covering the stock, William Lyons of Westminster Securities. He estimates earnings at $15,400,000 for the year. Including the dilution of the recent private placement, AOB will have 56.5 million shares outstanding, there are also 3.83 million warrants outstanding (60.3 million diluted). This puts EPS at $0.273 cents per share ($0.255 diluted), and at yesterday's closing price of 4.43, represents a forward 2005 P/E ratio of 16.23 (17.37 diluted). While this is by no means the same bargain it was back at $1.02, this company is still selling for cheap. Consider the following, as of July 29, 2005, the P/E of the S&P 500 was 20.26, according to analyst estimates this represents a forward 2005 P/E ratio of 18.06. These figures were taken from the Standard and Poor's website. The growth of the S&P earnings may break double-digits this year, but will not be more than 15%, yet it is trading at a forward P/E premium compared to a company with excellent management and a significantly higher growth rate. This does not make sense, and I consider AOB to be significantly undervalued.

AOB is one of the premier Chinese stocks being traded on US exchanges today, in terms of Chinese small caps it is one of the blue chips. As such, AOB is dual listed on the American Stock Exchange and the Pacific Stock Exchange and its Arca-Ex affiliate. Its options are also traded on the Pacific stock exchange, though they are quite expensive, and I'd much rather just own the stock. Pursuant to listing on these exchanges, AOB has more stringent corporate governance standards than many Chinese companies listed on other exchanges.

AOB is starting to be noticed by more institutional investors. The recent private placement is evidence of this. AOB raised $60 million dollars by issuing 12.5 million units at $4.80, each unit represents 1 share and 3/10 of a warrant exercisable at $6.50. A fringe benefit of this deal is that institutional investors will own approximately 22% of the company, these stronger hands may decrease the downside volatility somewhat. Going forward AOB will be flush with cash. They will have cash and cash equivalents of $71 million dollars. With 56.5 million shares outstanding after the completion of the PP, this implies cash and cash equivalents per share of $1.25. They will further increase their cash levels if and when the warrants are exercised. So far the company's strong management has been able to execute on their acquisition strategy, and have significantly increased shareholder value. They have pursued strategic acquisitions such as the purchase of a company with a national distribution network, which has allowed AOB to market their products to a huge number of consumers. The environment is China is such that a company like AOB can buy companies at or even slightly below book value. The cash that they possess will allow them to pursue a policy of accretive acquisitions going forward.

The valuation for this stock is extremely cheap considering its premium management team and history. This stock should be valued at a significantly higher multiple. I would use a forward 2005 P/E of 30 in estimating a target price. The company's current impressive growth rate, coupled with proven management, strong cash position and massive market potential justify this P/E ratio. I am initiating coverage at 4.43 with an opinion of Strong Buy and a 12-month target price of 8.19, representing an upside of 85%. Check back over the next few days for more analysis of AOB.

http://harbinus.blogspot.com/2005/12/american-oriental-bioengineering.html


still invested 

Nice article!!

I'm still in too, and sweating it a little bit.  Made some profit on the last run-up and bought back in at 6.80 - missed the key sell signals as I haven't been around too much and now find myself over 30% in the hole!!  Today's action wasn't encouraging either, and this kind of encouragement is exactly what I need.  I made the mistake of selling out of my loss on SVA, only to see it hit crazy lows and rebound.  Don't want to make that mistake again with AOB, and will hold for brighter days...

Well, here's hoping

Well, looks like a lot of us have taken a bit of a beating recently here.  I am probalby grasping at straws here, but here is my meager hope for a reversal:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=aob

We got a Black Spinning Top candlestick today:

"If a Black Spinning Top is observed after a long decline or a long black candlestick, this implies weakness among the bears and it is a warning about a potential change or interruption in trend."

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs06.asp

Its not a strong reliability indicator, but nonetheless, GLTA of us still holding.