3SOF

Volume was so low on MESA that I had to double check it with another source. No significant news were out. I'll just continue holding it for the long term.

Volume was so obviously low due the the short session on Friday that the slight cut of the ascending trendline on the chart can't be considered significant.

I'll continue holding MESA for the long term, great fundamentals here.

$10.5 is supporting MESA pretty well, but I don't care if the stock holds this level or not. I see at least a 100% rise in 1 year and I want to hold for that long.

The company is buying back a third of its outstanding shares, it has almost as much cash as market cap (though a lot of debt too), solid revenues and earnings growth.

MESA is a long term holding of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

My take on MESA:

(1) The charm of these regional carriers is that they have definitive contracts with major airlines which protects them from varying fuel prices, union issues, etc.  With MESA's step into starting a "standalone" airline to provide Hawaiian inter-island service (it will be responsible for fuel, repair contracts, and possibly more), uncertainty is increased.  In my opinion, this is why it has underperformed the other regionals since the expansion plans were announced.  Once the uncertainty settles, the outlook should improve.

(2) MESA is largely being ignored while the rest of the market does its "boom" thing.  But the strength is running out -- money that has gone into high P/E companies like SBUX and riskier tech will slowly trickle into value stocks in hot sectors.  What will those be?  Stocks like KOMG (low P/E, my stock pick, a hard drive platter supplier) and MESA.  In my opinion, MESA and other profitable carriers are in a great position -- "resting" while the rest of the market goes wild.  Stocks need rest  

Anyway, I believe stocks like MESA will significantly outperform the market when the strength of the current bull-run begins to waver.

PS: Darn you (and congratulations!) to Lucas Scott who picked GTE.  I can taste that $1000 stock picking reward, but there is no way my KOMG (up 24%) is going to catch up with an 83% gain.  Very nice!!!!

Thanks for your thoughts and analysis on MESA owen654321  And yes, Lucas Scott, with a 71% gainer (GTE) will likely be the winner of the first edition of the 3 SOF Stock Picking Contest (congrats  ), but we still have some days to go, and you're at second place, not bad, but the winner takes all  ... I wonder if I should participate in the second edition.

Tuesday was a good day, because the airline sector was down and MESA was up. I would like to see some decoupling of MESA, because my analysis says the company is undervalued in comparison with its peers. My reasoning tells me that, even though I think the airline sector will outperform the general market (as it has been doing), MESA will outperform the airline sector.

I'll continue holding MESA for the long term.

MESA went down 4% yesterday, that wasn't pretty. Probably in part it has to do, as oewn654321 said, with the company's expansion plans. It wants to be an independent carrier, and this way it may lose its charm.

But I don't think so, I believe this is the way for MESA's market cap to grow from about $300M to the billions like other airlines.

You can read more about this issue on this article: Regional Airlines Expand, Majors Suffer

The fall was hard but I'll continue hanging on for the long term, this company has as much cash as market cap, and the earnings multiple is 7. Any risk is already priced in, I believe.

I bought in recently when it was on TL2 support.  Now it has fallen below that...any opinions as to what I should do?  Would you expect the price to fall to TL1 now?

Thanks for the input...Jody

Quote from: 422fwhp on December 01, 2005, 07:27:00 AM
I bought in recently when it was on TL2 support.  Now it has fallen below that...any opinions as to what I should do?  Would you expect the price to fall to TL1 now?

Thanks for the input...Jody

The risk exists for MESA to come down to TL1, today at $8.91. If you bought exclusively based on TL2 support, now you have no reason to hold, the support was broken on the downside.

I'll continue holding because my motive to buy wasn't the short term ascending trendline, but the longer term bullish trend and very attractive fundamentals. This fundamental part is a dangerous game, it allows for more risk and more upside potential too. I think it is hard to hold a stock, say, for 2 years and a 300 or a 400% gain based exclusively on technicals, there's always a lot of noise and many false signals on the charts.

On the other hand, the moment you perceive fundamentals are no longer attractive, probably there's already a big loss to be taken.

I always think about my motivation to buy ... is it still valid? If yes, I'll continue holding, if not, I'll sell and move on to another stock.

Good luck 422fwhp 

QuoteI'll continue holding because my motive to buy wasn't the short term ascending trendline, but the longer term bullish trend and very attractive fundamentals. This fundamental part is a dangerous game, it allows for more risk and more upside potential too. I think it is hard to hold a stock, say, for 2 years and a 300 or a 400% gain based exclusively on technicals, there's always a lot of noise and many false signals on the charts.

If I were just a technical guy I would be out on Wednesday, when MESA broke the $10.5 horizontal support on the downside. But since I'm also a fundamental trader (because to catch a big long term move you can't rely on technicals, there are too many false signals) I'm still in and the stock closed back above $10.50.

I'll continue holding MESA for the long term.

Nothing new about MESA, both on a fundamental and technical basis. I'll continue holding the stock for the long term.

MESA released its November traffic figures yesterday just before the open. Not that it has any impact on the share price over the short term (which seems to fluctuate more with oil futures than anything else), but I think it matters for me as a long term holder of the stock.

Analyzing the figures I see growth accelerating for the company, as you can see on the table below:



In the three categories disclosed, passengers, available seat miles and load factor, YoY growth was higher in November than in the 3rd quarter.

Despite of the recent decline phase on the stock price, I think the uptrend will resume and the stock will make new highs soon, therefore I'll continue holding it for the long term.

The airline stocks are all down last few days and Cramer said on CNBC tonight: "SELL SELL all airline stocks". May be the oil price is going higher as US really becomes cold.

On the other hand, online travel related stocks are very hot. I have been holding TZOO and EXPE for  a month. Here are the charts:

Thanks for your input shawFund 

Cramer said that? That's a good explanation to why airlines were weaker yesterday, but that also almost leads me to buy AMR, since the stock rose a lot yesterday (and over the last couple of weeks), despite the sector weakness and Cramer's take.

I don't own MESA because it is an airline. I own it because of its specific fundamentals. I think the stocks recent weakness may be explained by options players activity. This is a short term effect and an inverted analysis, and I said I would never do that again.

So what I have to say is this: MESA's fundamentals are attractive and improving, therefore I'll continue holding it for the long term.

Yes, AMR is the best performer in airline sector. It gained 2.9% again today.

Here is the table which listed the performance within this sector (BK companies are not in such as Northwest, Delta, United, etc) sorted based on yearly return.

AMR is the number 1. and MESA is number 5 based on yearly return.

However, based on monthly return, MESA is one of the worst, down 9.21%.

AMR gaied 33%, HA 39%, CAL 32% MEH 26%, ...

Among 22 stocks in this sector, there are 16 gainers, and only 6 losses in last 4 weeks.

Thanks for that table shawFund, AMR is really hot 

MESA didn't had any news or new technical developments, I have little doubts the stock will come back and make new highs, I'll continue holding it for the long term.