3SOF

EQR    yeah baby yeah   hope this fits the pattern, ill let you know after i short on monday

heres one on the landing strip,, this one i will keep on the radar boo yaaaa //

Quote from: agatto2 on December 11, 2005, 07:53:46 AM
EQR    yeah baby yeah   hope this fits the pattern, ill let you know after i short on monday

Tony,

Just so that you're aware, if you short EQR early this coming week, you likely will have to pay the $0.57 quarterly dividend.

I don't know if this will copy properly, but hiere's the recent dividend information:

AMOUNT   EX-DATE   PAYABLE   RECORD   DECLARATION
$0.570   15-Sep-05   17-Oct-05   19-Sep-05   24-Aug-05   
$0.570   15-Jun-05   15-Jul-05   17-Jun-05   20-May-05      
$0.570   16-Mar-05   15-Apr-05   18-Mar-05   21-Feb-05   
$0.570   15-Dec-04   17-Jan-05   17-Dec-04   22-Nov-04   

The Shareholder of Record date, based on the above, likely will be December 17, 18, or 19.  Since trades settle three trading days after you purchase or short a stock, you'll be short on the Record Date, and would have to pay the dividend to the person from whom your broker borrowed the shares.  Check with your broker, if it's a concern to you.

As far as the Wolfe Wave, it's a head scratcher for me.      

You're Wave 1-2 equals your Wave 3-4 (both are about 7 days), so it meets that Symmetry criterion that calven stipulated, but the intervening up waves (2-3 and 4-5) are twice as long as the down waves (about 13 days).  So, the stock is spending twice as much time going higher than it is spending going lower.  It's hard to view that as anything bearish, but maybe calven could help us with that.    

EQR had an upside breakaway gap out of a Symmetrical Triangle on October 24, putting 43.40 IN PLAY.  The chart was bullish, so that pattern breakout, typically, is a continuation pattern (in this case, to the upside).

After the breakout, EQR successfully re-tested the down trendline breakout, then rallied toward the target.  Sometimes, those targets don't make.  It could be a truncated Elliott 5th wave, meaning that "it gets cut off...the target doesn't make."

There wasn't any negative divergence in things like MACD or RSI at the November 23 high, though, so I'm reluctant to view the recent selloff as bearish.

Just some thoughts...it will be interesting to see which way this one goes.  Thanks for your posts, Tony.  It's fun trying to figure these out, isn't it? 

First off, Melf Elf - Excellent post! (applaud) I know quite a bit about the pattern, but not the dynamics behind it....

Also on point 5 - Yes, the real point of action is just after point 5 when the stock attempts to break back into the channel. That determines if the pattern is valid or not.  You can also take action at point 6.....


Secondly, Agatto I would not short EQR. I think it already made its WW....I have posted a chart below. Try to identify WW's that look exactly like those diagrams I included below. They are drawn with precision (angles, time, period, symmetry etc) If you can find one like those please post!

Thanks for your contributions guys!

Cal 

For a more extended commentary on wolfewaves, check out
http://www.voodootrader.com/wolfewave.htm

While it goes on a bit and some is a bit over my head (please summarise if you understand the whole thing!!!)  what is very interesting about this explanation is that it shows how wolfewaves follow on from each other and build on top of each other in different timeframes - this makes sense as the whole basis of the pattern is about imbalance and reaction to this imbalance. 

As a result, I think that the second WW in EQR may well be valid - while the ascending channel is very steep, it is clearly out of balance at this level, and may be due for a correction.  The bounce off the upper line of the channel after point 4 demonstrates this imbalance, that the stock was too strong to correct at this level.  Maybe it is the divergence in RSI marked in red on my chart that signals an impending lack of strength (I know the RSI goes much higher after this) but this is my point, that when the price hit the tope of the channel, the RSI divergence indicated that a subsequent rally above this level could be overextended.  Also, volume during the recent selloff has been as strong as during this very steep last rise, which suggests this is noot a low-vol. retrace.  Personally, I don't short stocks, but please keep us posted if you do on this one, as it looks to be our first official "in-play" WW test, at least here on 3SOF.

Awsome melf    thanks     ,,,, let me get  you an applaud for that one,   tony

Hay Calvin,,, thanks for the time looking at the chart. I think im kinda confused,  when i look at the example that you gave in the opening page 1st post, i really dont see symetery,
( probebly old age ) so im thinking the channel and fib extensions are the really importent thing with some sorts of symetery, so they have to be picture perfect? What am i missing?

                                                                          thanks  tony

What about ATVI???

(I know the symmetry isn't perfect, but looks pretty close to me)

Target achieved and then some - I am looking for a solid bounce from this low level.

Please specify which chart (s) you are talking about agatto. Looking back at old posts it seems as if all the WW's I have given look symmetrical. EQR could be a WW but it seems a bit "too steep"

Also scottishtrader, I am not sure how WW's factor in to gap downs... obviously the 1-4 line can be broken if overwhelming news causes selling... if fundamentals are so bearish that huge gap downs occur I think this throws the legitimacy away...

As for the chart you have I do see a WW there. I think since point 6 was already exceeded I would expect that stock to attempt to move over the 1-4 line (and fail). Basically I think the 1-4 line will serve as resistance now. (resistance just above 14)

Hi Cal,

Any chance I caught a keeper?  I'm a rookie and posting a chart for the second time (first time was on the test thread) so here it is I hope:

Quote from: ScottishTrader on December 11, 2005, 04:25:35 PM
For a more extended commentary on wolfewaves, check out
http://www.voodootrader.com/wolfewave.htm

Scotsman,

Thanks for that link.  Applause.  Interesting reading.

Quote
While it goes on a bit and some is a bit over my head (please summarise if you understand the whole thing!!!) 

I didn't understand it.    

1. There were several examples in which Wave #5 tagged the channel, but never broke through it.  I thought that was a requirement, but the Wave #6 target still made without the channel ever breaking.

2. There were several examples in which I didn't see any symmetry or the Fibonacci extensions. 

3. There were several examples in which the Wolfe Wave began (Wave #1) right in the middle of, say, a 10-15 day move down (or a move up).  That didn't make any sense.

4. In the Royal Gold example (chart below), I probably would have been stopped out a few times, trying to short the move out of the channel to Wave #5.   

The stock went above the channel at  21.054, then it went back inside it (theoretically, I would have shorted it there), but then it went all the way up to about $28 before completing a H&S top, then it made the downside target at #6.

We're going to have to be careful about long and short entries at Wave #5.  Royal Gold was a difficult short entry on the move out of the channel to #5, in part, due to "don't short stocks in an uptrend."

QuoteAs a result, I think that the second WW in EQR may well be valid - while the ascending channel is very steep, it is clearly out of balance at this level, and may be due for a correction.

It looks as valid as a number of examples that I saw at the link you posted, but personally, I still wouldn't want to short EQR here for the reasons that I mentioned.  It's in a strong uptrend, and there still is an upside target IN PLAY.  You and Tony very well could be right, though. 

Quote

I have found through personal experience with the pattern that the point 5 "false break" makes the pattern that much more reliable. Although I think I mentioned earlier that it wasn't "absolutely necessary". Basically, Im saying the "false break" exists in the ideal WW pattern, like the diagrams I presented. Furthermore VOODOO Trader is an advanced trader. He is on a whole new level so to speak. Im just presenting the basic "reliable" pattern. VOODOO goes above and beyond that. His charts are the result of years of experience with the pattern. He obviously expanded the "rules" to fit his needs and observations. Hopefully we can all get to that point also.  I just thought we would start with the basic and work from there...

As for CHINA...something doesnt look right with it but I cant quite pin it down.I think it just looks different because of the huge reaction highs.. It's probably just me.... Using the criteria I have given "CHINA"  is a WW. I think its valid. What do you guys think?

cal 

Here is another view of China CDC 

Here is could go either way - now it can be bought with a stop just under trend line for low risk or a short if it breaks down on good volume but has support pretty close and already at lower B band and low stochastics....

Quote from: metro on December 12, 2005, 12:58:50 PM
Here is another view of China CDC 

Very good, metro.  Applause.

We had two Inverted Hammers on your up trendline last Thursday and Friday, validating it as support, and today, CHINA has taken out the high of those two sessions.

Quote from: calven on December 11, 2005, 11:01:04 PM
As for the chart you have I do see a WW there. I think since point 6 was already exceeded I would expect that stock to attempt to move over the 1-4 line (and fail). Basically I think the 1-4 line will serve as resistance now. (resistance just above 14)

calven,

Good read on that Wave 1-4 bisect serving as resitance.  Applause.

Scotsman,

I was trying to figure why ATVI overshot the Wave 1-4 bisect, then stopped where it did. 

It turns out that ATVI bounced off the bottom of the Andrews' Pitchfork on December 5.  From there, a Bear Flag rally back to the Wave 1-4 bisect, which served as resistance yesterday, as calven suggested.  There also was horizontal resistance in that area on yesterday morning's gap opening.

Yesterday, Mike Santoli of Barrons was very bullish on ATVI, long-term.  He thinks ATVI is the best in the group, but the chart isn't looking so hot, near-term.