3SOF

Couldn't see a thread on ATVI here, and I think the chart looks pretty good for a bit of bottom fishing - there has certainly been a lot of interest (i.e. volume) in the stock at these levels after a heavy fall in November.  Even Piper Jaffray have said that this should be a bottom, giving a $19 price target, more than 35% above where it stands right now.

http://www.forbes.com/2005/12/08/activision-earnings-games-1208markets02.html?partner=yahootix

It seems strange that they had such a terrible November, despite posting a loss for last quarter, they still beat analysts estimates.  Perhaps it was beecause their Q3 estimates of .53 EPS on $790m for the quarter ending in December were lower than analysts etimates of .54 on $800m.  Or maybe because they split the stock at the end of October???

Seems strange, as with the XBox 360 just out and they have produced 4 much anticipated and well reviewed titles for it, including one of the most popular games: Call of Duty 2:

I found this on LiveLife's thread:
05 Dec 2005, 10:02 AM EST
Msg. 174876 of 174927

THE RELEASE OF MICROSOFT CORP.'S (MSFT) Xbox 360 just two days before Thanksgiving juiced videogame rentals during that key holiday-shopping week. U.S. consumer spending on rentals shot up 44% to $24.4 million during the week ended Nov. 27, from $17 million in the prior week, according to point-of-sale research by Rentrak Corp. (RENT) Among the top Xbox 360 titles rented that week were Activision Inc.'s (ATVI) "Call of Duty 2," and Electronic Arts Inc.'s (ERTS) "Need for Speed Most Wanted" and "Madden NFL 06."


Other analysts have suggested that with the release of the new XBox and the holiday shopping season, games developers should have a bumper December - this from an interview with Scott Kessler, an S&P research analyst in Businessweek Online last week:

Finally, any thoughts on the situation with Microsoft and the Xbox?
Well, we obviously are positive on Microsoft and think that the Xbox 360, given its new functionalities and timing coming to market earlier than its competitors, will gain share in the coming months in the video game market. We also think that this is a time that investors should be buying developers of video game software such as Electronic Arts and Activision (ATVI ), both of which already have released titles for the Xbox 360.

Intriguingly, they have also been conducting research into in-game advertising, which appears to be quite successful, and could provide an additional revenue stream:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051205/nym072.html?.v=26

So lots of things going on and yet over a 25% drop in their share price in November???

Seems fishy to me.  I think that this could be a very good christmas play and is way undervalued here.  Christmas of course is the big season for them and last year EPS was .35 for the Decmber quarter.  This year they are predicting .53 for the Christmas quarter.  Currently they have a market cap of $3.8B on 273m outstanding shares, a trailing P/E of almost 46 and a forward P/E of only 22.

Technically, you just gotta like that bottom - RSI pulling back from below 30, MACD Hist about to go positive, just crossed 200MA today, which should provide support, and a healthy gap to fill from last month.  And big volume accumulation at these levels.

I was going to buy a couple of days ago but my money was tied up, Monday on a break of $14 might be a good time.

Just a bit more on last month's drop -

Seems like it was fuled by a few downgrades from analysts, e.g.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051118/activision_mover.html?.v=1
and
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051122/activision_mover.html?.v=1

this was positive commentary following their Q2 results:
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/11/03/activision-earnings-software-1103markets10.html?partner=yahootix

but they do have a strong and broad holiday game lineup:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051117/nyfnsm12.html?.v=1

My feeling is that once again, the analysts are doing their best to manipulate this stock to their advantage, bring it down to attractive accumulation levels.  Institutional investments partially support this view, with a lot of institutional buying and selling recently.

OK now this starts to get good (just getting my digging going here) - check this:

NASDAQ Announces the Annual Re-ranking of the NASDAQ-100 Index

New York, December 9, 2005 — The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. (NASDAQ®; NASDAQ: NDAQ) announced today the annual re-ranking of the NASDAQ-100 Index®, effective with the market open on Monday, December 19, 2005.

"The re-ranking is a unique event in that investors ultimately determine which companies are members of one of the most closely followed indexes in the world," said John L. Jacobs, executive vice president, NASDAQ. "The re-ranking process is objective, rules-based and transparent - one that ensures the NASDAQ-100 Index will continue to be an important benchmark by which you can invest in a diverse array of NASDAQ-listed companies."

The following 12 issues will be added to the NASDAQ-100 Index: Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), NII Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD), Expedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE), Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTEN), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN), Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNS), Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), RedHat, Inc. (NASDAQ: RHAT), Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNST), CheckFree Corporation (NASDAQ: CKFR), and Discovery Holding Company (NASDAQ: DISCA).

Shares of each company in the Index are included in the NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock® (QQQ® ) (NASDAQ: QQQQ), which is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that trades like a stock. It is the most actively traded listed equity security in the U.S., and it is one of the world's most actively traded ETFs as measured by the average daily share trading volume. QQQ represents ownership in the NASDAQ-100 TrustSM. The Trust holds a portfolio of equity securities that comprise the NASDAQ-100 Index and aims to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond with the NASDAQ-100 Index performance. Since its inception in March 1999, the Trust's total assets have grown to over $20 billion.

The Trustee for the NASDAQ-100 Trust is required to adjust the composition of the Trust within three business days before or after the day on which a change to the composition of the NASDAQ-100 Index becomes effective at the close of the market.

That means that the QQQQ must purchase shares in ATVI within the first 3 days of next week, and in addition, and Nasdaq100 tracker funds will be obligated to do the same.  This could really kick things off for ATVI next week

okay one more ATVI post and then enough already

Just wanted to post the long term (3yr) weekly chart - shows that ATVI is currently at the bottom of the long term trending channel shown by Andrew's pitchfork.  This should be followed by a resumption of the overall trend, with a move back towards th median line.

The breakdown of the 15 dollar price appears to be a bear trap play.  The B of A analyst downgrade does not hold water.  After hour trading continues to run the price up. Only to be met with mild sell-off during the day.  Smells like a takeover play to me so I positioned myself accordingly.  With all their cash, great titles, the X-box release, Playstation to follow, and now comes the NASDAQ listing -- it felt like someone ( perhaps someone who knew the NASDAQ listing was imminent ) intended to drive the price down for the purpose of buying at bargain prices.  Sure enough last week Jamdat gets the buyout offer.  But tomorrow ( and for the rest of this week ) I expect ATVI to clear 14 easily.  On Dec 19th ATVI will be part of the index.  Buying this week will occur ahead of the listing.  In addition there is 2.78 days of short interest positions which will add upward price pressure this week.  The November game sales data released last week showed ATVI ahead of the pack, then within one hour of release the data was recalled.  What manipulation.  Time for ATVI to spring ahead.

Scotty, just wanted to add a comment to your the 8x8 momentum play.  The late day bounce and AH continuation rally  has legs until proven otherwise.  I will enter tomorrow with a 6:1 reward to risk plan ( 30% gain or 5% loss ).  I will take money off the table at a 30% rise ( just under 4 dollars a share or a 5% stop loss to my entry price ). Premarket action should be exciting.  If the opportunity presents itself I may do a buy - sell -for a quick flip then a buy and hold for the regular trading session.  If the pre market trade results in a profit it will cushion my buy and hold risk reward strategy.  May very well get two up trading days out of this momentum play.

Executed as planned.  Entered at 2.93 on the pre-market open.  Closed out at 3.30 for the completion of phase one. 

Now do we get the pullback to 3 dollars for a second entry or will 3.30 hold and then go up from there.  15 minutes to the open.  So we will not have long top wait.

PS  Scottish Trader, ATVI is moving wonderfully this morning.  I am long the Jan DIA AB call options and the Monday morninmg kickoff rally is in gear.  Let's rock.

Re-entered position at 2.98 partial and 3.00 for the balance of the order.  Let the run up continue.

Resistance now at 3.30 and then 3.50.
Support at 3.20  Stop set at 3.12

Will consider a timed sale ( regardless of price ) at 11:00 to 11:30.  Ususally the morning peak price from a technical point of view.

Hey Dez,

Hope you made some good trades this morning - EGHT was on a pretty solid run down, I ended up gedtting back out lower than I wanted, but am back in again.  As for ATVI, it has just filled this mornings gap and I'm waiting to see which way it wants to go from here.  Have not filled a position yet.  Will see.

OK,

Well, Calven wa right on thee money in comments he gave me about ATVI over the weekend.  I spotted a completed Wolfewave in the chart, and it looked to have bottomed.  Calven said that the target trendline from the Wolfewave should most likely become resistance, which was exactly what occured today.  After gapping up, ATVI formed a symmetrical triangle which it broke out of to the downside to fill the open gap.  I was expecting it to bounce from there, but it decided it had more downside to play with, bottoming and wallowing around 13.62-13.65.  As planned I got a fill, but not until mid morning, at 13.77.  So I am slightly down on this but have to plan a simple trading strategy.  For now it is to hold unless it is set to close below 13.20, which was the recent bottom.  There is a small ascending tendline that is still holding, and I would like to see a continuation up that line.  I expect this new descending resistance to be tested shortly and broken through.  ATVI is still very attractive at these levels.  1st target is the bottom of the gap around 15.50.

Oh by the way, apparently the new NPD report will be out after tomorrow's close, giving video game sales numbers for November - at the moment analysts expect them to be down from last year and not encouraging, but they could well contain a positive surprise.

not a great day for ATVI, as it held strong for most of the day above the open, and then bottomed out, presumably when the NPD figures leaked.

While the NPD report signals weakness for the video game sector as a whole this Christmas, showing an 18% drop in sales vs. last November, this seems to be largely due to the release of 2 "must-have" titles last Nov. (Halo 2 and GTA:SA), and people holding off for XBox 360 purchases and the subsequent lack of XBoxes hampering sales, their numbers for Activision were excellent, showing sales of $97m in November, up 54% from Nov last year.  Most of the drop was concentrated on other companies such as Take Two (which would have had to really pull something out of the back to match San Andreas's sales last year).

The Street article can be found here:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/gamesandgadgets/10257325.html

Activision do appear to have a strong line-up for the holiday season, and I continue to think that these market concerns here will be short lived.  I definitely plan to hold through to next year.

ATVI released this after the bell today:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051214/activision_outlook.html?.v=1

Ugly

Down almost 15% AH - tomorrow could be interesting, will see what gives....

Look.....
Make a pick, got to track of it. 
Not tracking your picks you shall miss the moves....up or down....Long or Short.
It's hard sometimes ,I know. I have did the same thing.....
Below are the charts for,
6 month
1 year
2 year
3 year

Always impressed with you Setravis,  I have a mighty hard time keeping track of them all...  but it is true that ATVI would have made for some very nice swing trades over the last 9 months!

Will be interesting to see if it can break 16 in short order...  Will keep watching