3SOF

Quote from: SeeingGreen on December 17, 2005, 02:34:16 PM
what drug am i missing something>
is it a cancer drug?

please toss me the 411

They are a research pharma who finally got a orphan drug approved...first product...first drug to [potentially] produce revenue....until this they had none...they just got approval.  That's it. You might compare to TRCA, stock at 7 with a drug that is not as good. Analyst puts stock at 4 by 2008...however competitor already at 7+....so, you decide. I think its a buy, but its a long proposition....if you were looking to trade, I'd say buy a dip early next week, and hold to around 2 and sell it....other wise a long hold will probably get you a couple of dollars by middle of next year, minimum....the anticipate a mid-2006 launch so....there ya go.

EDIT: just to add theyve spent lots on research, they have substantial debt..so I dont know how attractive of a buyout opportunity it is...and with all that debt they dont have a lot of capital to bring a drug to distribute and market....these are major concerns with this stock....

Next big announcement for the stock MUST detail how and when the stock will be brought to market, or, who they will partner with to do so...I doubt a buyout...though, its possible, but expensive....for merely an ORPHAN DRUG (small market)

I have been following INSM since February. I am here to explain my understanding of what is happenning to the stock at the moment. This stock WILL NOT pop like SPEX did, as many people, including myself, thought it would on FDA approval. What I failed to factor into the equation, was the 42 million shares in warrants and converts that hit the market after the announcement last week. 28 million shares were traded on the 13th, most in the $1.80 to $1.85 range. The warrants were converitble at $1.29, $1,36, and the bonds at $1.71...many of those shares are now in circulation.

Volume has tailed off to a respectable level, and those traders who got in for a .50 pop are gone, as are a lot of people who got in at a buck and held for the news, which was not so long ago (August @ .96). So this stock needs to close above the $1.85 resistance to begin to move up. The churning should be over now, and a $1.90 to $2.00 close should happen Monday or Tuesday at the latest. The shorts aren't in it yet, to any degree, and those that are will be trapped shortly...pun intended.

I see a slow, steady climb in the short term to $3.50 , $4.00 by the end of January barring news of a production timetable or partner. The TRCA lawsuit for patent infringement has bee made moot by the orphan status, "not the same drug"...the "deceptive practices" suit is meaningless, and a desperate attempt by TRCA to  further hamper INSM's meager capital by tying it up in legal fees.

This drug is going to market here now, and in the EU shortly...trade away...wild swings will be on news only, and will not be extreme...at least not like the NVAX spike or SPEX two day chart the first of December. Long term, you can't go wrong here, check out their pipeline..for day or swing trades...wait to get your money back...which will probably be this week, and go look somewhere else. This is a long term "accumulate and hold" stock...IMHO..with little but sunny days ahead of it, finally.

Regards and good trading,

vet24

P.S. A better "quick money" play would be to short TRCA.....

 

Breakout confirmed...This may be a great long term investment,so I will hold....

I think we're gonna see stock going higher till now...
Listen...

19-Dec-2005

Sale of Equity



Item 3.02 Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Between December 13, 2005 and December 19, 2005, Insmed Incorporated received notices from holders of its 5.5% Convertible Notes due 2008 - 2010 electing to voluntarily convert $10,922,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes into 8,433,977 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $1.295 in principal amount of the Convertible Notes. The Company also received $3,358,810 from warrant exercises that resulted in 2,374,234 shares of common stock being issued. 463,036 shares were issued at an exercise price of $1.71 and 1,911,198 shares were issued at an exercise price of $1.36.

The common stock issued upon the conversion of the Convertible Notes and the warrants was issued in reliance upon the exemption from the registration requirement of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, provided for in
Section 3(a)(9) and Section 4(2) thereof and is all currently registered for resale by the holders pursuant to Insmed's Registration Statement on Form S-3 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 8, 2005 (the "Registration Statement").

Following the conversions described above, $11,438,000 principal amount of the Convertible Notes remained outstanding. In addition, because certain of the Convertible Notes were converted prior to the March 1, 2006 quarterly interest payment, the Company issued an additional 14,959 shares of common stock for the forfeited cash interest payment at a conversion price of $1.295. A summary of the terms of the Convertible Notes, including the conversion features and interest payments was previously provided in the Registration Statement and Insmed's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16, 2005 (the "Current Report"). The form of the Convertible Notes was filed with the Current Report and the forms of the warrants were filed on Current Reports filed with the SEC on March 16, 2005 and November 10, 2004. The Registration Statement, the Current Report and the form of Convertible Note are each incorporated herein by reference.

It would appear about half of the warrant and bond conversions are fininshed and the new share "dump" on the market will slow substantially from here on out...

The 8k would bear this out, most of the $1.71 converts have restrictions on them.

We still need to close above $1.85 resistance to get on with the program, though...IMHO

vet 24

Quote from: Malum2006 on December 18, 2005, 12:48:44 AM
They are a research pharma who finally got a orphan drug approved...first product...first drug to [potentially] produce revenue....until this they had none...they just got approval. That's it. You might compare to TRCA, stock at 7 with a drug that is not as good. Analyst puts stock at 4 by 2008...however competitor already at 7+....so, you decide.

Let me criticize your stock price comparison (4 to 7+).  I'm assuming you know that isn't how you compare valuations.  Why don't you try market cap?  Now if you look at that, TRCA is still way ahead, but in my opinion that is a function of their much stronger balance sheet.

Steve

I'm still waiting for just that FIRST trade @ $1.86....

Volume has settled down and I would think this should trade 1.5-2 million shares a day once it breaks resistance and begins to move. With the larger float outstanding (concensus is 88-90 million) should be a fairly smooth, steady ride up without news. Slower than most would like, I think, but up just the same.

I look for a PR or two in January, one for the ramp up to production and the other for a partnership announcement...

Wishful thinking? Time will tell...

Regards,

vet24

Hi,guys,
Do u still get positions ?
Cal,Set....r?

Yes I do...Why ??

- European/Global partner will soon be finalized.

From company comments we know they have been talking to at least three (several being more than two) potential partners and they hoped to finalize a deal by the end of the year.

While any deal was probably contingent upon an FDA approval, this may have been imposed by Insmed rather than potential partners, as an approval would require more attractive terms.

An interesting note is that this was originally a "European" partner in earlier presentations. In the Lazard presentation, this became a "European/Worldwide" partner.

This word choice interesting, indicating that a bigger player entered the game.

- On the pipeline front:

----Iplex label expansion clinical updates will be come early next year. Insmed is about to announce trials for abnormal retinal development/blindness in premature infants. This may be announced as early as January 2006.

Likewise, tissue repair, hip fracture, and extreme insulin resistance trials are all planned for the 1st half of 2006. By Fall, we should have an update on the HIV-Associated Lipodystrophy trial.

---- INSM-18 update is expected for the 2nd quarter of 2006. To define the maximum tolerated dose of INSM-18, this trial is for patients with relapsed prostate cancer. We do know informally, that this has been going very well.

----- BP3 trials expected in 2006. For several cancer indications, we could see some news on new trials in 2006.

2006 will probably be explosive if they realise what they have to do...

- European/Global partner will soon be finalized.

From company comments we know they have been talking to at least three (several being more than two) potential partners and they hoped to finalize a deal by the end of the year.

While any deal was probably contingent upon an FDA approval, this may have been imposed by Insmed rather than potential partners, as an approval would require more attractive terms.

An interesting note is that this was originally a "European" partner in earlier presentations. In the Lazard presentation, this became a "European/Worldwide" partner.

This word choice interesting, indicating that a bigger player entered the game.

- On the pipeline front:

----Iplex label expansion clinical updates will be come early next year. Insmed is about to announce trials for abnormal retinal development/blindness in premature infants. This may be announced as early as January 2006.

Likewise, tissue repair, hip fracture, and extreme insulin resistance trials are all planned for the 1st half of 2006. By Fall, we should have an update on the HIV-Associated Lipodystrophy trial.

---- INSM-18 update is expected for the 2nd quarter of 2006. To define the maximum tolerated dose of INSM-18, this trial is for patients with relapsed prostate cancer. We do know informally, that this has been going very well.

----- BP3 trials expected in 2006. For several cancer indications, we could see some news on new trials in 2006.

Looks like $2+ is just around the corner

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?INSM

Readers be aware that wiseman213, bullissimo, vopiissimo, januaryeffect, and newnewbie may be the same entity or group.  Wiseman213 was booted for registering as two users and then playing off one another as two different individuals, pumping low float stocks, all from the same ISP.  Now it appears he (they) are back.  Remember the movie "Sybil"?

[wiseman213, bullissimo, vopiissimo, januaryeffect, newnewbie and whomever else you may be lurking as].  You cheated, got caught, and are not trustworthy.

You have no credibility, no trust, you are being deceptive.  You have also been reported to the moderator.

Quote from: JKN on December 29, 2005, 03:34:21 PM
Readers be aware that wiseman213, bullissimo, vopiissimo, januaryeffect, and newnewbie may be the same entity or group.  Wiseman213 was booted for registering as two users and then playing off one another as two different individuals, pumping low float stocks, all from the same ISP.  Now it appears he (they) are back.  Remember the movie "Sybil"?

[wiseman213, bullissimo, vopiissimo, januaryeffect, newnewbie and whomever else you may be lurking as].  You cheated, got caught, and are not trustworthy.

You have no credibility, no trust, you are being deceptive.  You have also been reported to the moderator.

Glad to see the forum police watching out for us. Applaud

Quote from: stocks2watch2 on December 29, 2005, 03:49:26 PM
Glad to see the forum police watching out for us. Applaud

Agreed.  Applaud to JKN.

http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=insm

Date  Open  High  Low  Last  Change  Volume  % Change 
12/29/05 1.91 1.97 1.87 1.93 +0.03 1799800 +1.58%


Composite Indicator 
   Trend Spotter TM Buy 
 
Short Term Indicators 
   7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy 
   10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy 
   20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 
   20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 
   20 Day Bollinger Bands  Hold 
 
Short Term Indicators Average:   80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 3622280
 
Medium Term Indicators 
   40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 
   50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 
   20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 
   50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy 
 
Medium Term Indicators Average:   100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 1657224
 
Long Term Indicators 
   60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 
   100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 
   50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 
 
Long Term Indicators Average:   100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 1546131
 
Overall Average:   96% - Buy
 
Price  Support  Pivot Point  Resistance 

1.93  1.82  1.92  2.02 


very bullish technically, way under valued for a drug company just has FDA approved.