3SOF

It took me more than an hour writing an analysis to recommend SMDI, but when I was almost finishing it, the internet connection went down and Firefox also went down. I lost all my work  

Now I don't have time to re-write this article before the opening bell (and still have many updates to make - this internet connection is killing me), but still I will say I'll buy SMDI around $4.60-$4.65 if I have the chance.

I'll leave you some charts I had prepared and after the open I'll come back to this thread to make the analysis again (probably I have to go home, which is 50 miles away, to do it, because this thing is going down every minute).

I'll buy SMDI around $4.60-$4.65 today if I can, 33.33% of the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio as always.

A stock market story for you, I was in SMDI a few sessions ago as it broke through $4 area resistance, I set a reasonable stop and it hovered around the $4 zone for a few sessions. Last week whilst I was enjoying a nice holiday it broke through what I had perceived as support area and I was stopped out. Now it breaks out huge after shaking me out, oh well, such is the game 

Quote from: David Randolph on December 21, 2005, 08:30:39 AM
It took me more than an hour writing an analysis to recommend SMDI, but when I was almost finishing it, the internet connection went down and Firefox also went down. I lost all my work   

Now I don't have time to re-write this article before the opening bell (and still have many updates to make - this internet connection is killing me), but still I will say I'll buy SMDI around $4.60-$4.65 if I have the chance.

I'll leave you some charts I had prepared and after the open I'll come back to this thread to make the analysis again (probably I have to go home, which is 50 miles away, to do it, because this thing is going down every minute).

I'll buy SMDI around $4.60-$4.65 today if I can, 33.33% of the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio as always.

David, i recommend you using the Microsoft word to write your analysis there & save it and just paste it to 3SOF after you finished.... in this way, when the internet connection messed up you can always get back to it later and Copy & Paste the saved analysis when things are ok.....if you do this, you can always walk away from ur office with a smile on ur face. The same thing to us (Subscribers) we need that analysis of yours to decide before buying your recommendation.

And also get a back-up Power Supply if you don't have one, you gonna need it when nature's get angry there is back-up power supply that lasted for 30 minutes and that would be enough time for you to save everything  

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 21, 2005, 09:05:47 AM
A stock market story for you, I was in SMDI a few sessions ago as it broke through $4 area resistance, I set a reasonable stop and it hovered around the $4 zone for a few sessions. Last week whilst I was enjoying a nice holiday it broke through what I had perceived as support area and I was stopped out. Now it breaks out huge after shaking me out, oh well, such is the game

Yeah, this game is hard to play. Thanks for your story on SMDI Aussie 

QuoteDavid, i recommend you using the Microsoft word to write your analysis there & save it and just paste it to 3SOF after you finished.... in this way, when the internet connection messed up you can always get back to it later and Copy & Paste the saved analysis when things are ok.....if you do this, you can always walk away from ur office with a smile on ur face. The same thing to us (Subscribers) we need that analysis of yours to decide before buying your recommendation. Wink Cheesy Grin

And also get a back-up Power Supply if you don't have one, you gonna need it when nature's get angry Wink there is back-up power supply that lasted for 30 minutes and that would be enough time for you to save everything Wink  Cheesy Grin

Thanks for the advice Terlisa. I really have to do that.

Here's what I'm going to do on SMDI: for now I'll say I'll hold some more time (despite the close was a bit below of what I would like) and after I send the newsletter I'll come back to this thread to re-write the full analysis on SMDI.

hi,
watching the intraday chart , ( i know i shouldn't ) this seems to be being held at 4.60 all day yesterday and this morning. it dropped to 4.42 and then jumped to 4.60 . but everytime it gets there they drop the ask. is this accumulation or something else .? any ideas anyone.,
thanks
maxi

SMDI touched support at $4.46 and is coming back now.

I'll just leave two charts, one for the EPS evolution and other of the stock price:

(I don't know what the 2005 EPS will be)

SMDI touched support at $4.46 and is now ready to resume the uptrend. An insider (the President and CEO of the company) sold 5,500 shares at $4.61, but he had nothing to do with it:

«1. This transaction was effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan pursuant to which the reporting person has no discretion or influence on trading.»

Analysts just rose their EPS forecast for this quarter by a penny:



I'll continue holding SMDI, waiting for a year end rally in the stock, as earnings estimates are revised up because of the higher revenue guidance the company made on Wednesday.

hi david,
or anyone else who might know why this is being held in just one spot 4.60 . love to have some insight on this,
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on December 23, 2005, 03:15:25 PM
hi david,
or anyone else who might know why this is being held in just one spot 4.60 . love to have some insight on this,
maxi

I don't think $4.60 is all that important maxi, do you?

What I see is SMDI is still consolidating that big 25% one day jump, but it is holding fairly well. Usually trends continue, so I expect SMDI's bullish trend to resume before the end of 2005. I'll continue holding the stock to liquidate the position near the close of the last trading day of the year, ending the December Edition of the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio.

Hi, David:

  To reflect the real performance of the portfolio, I suggest that each trade
(buy + sell) should add commission cost ($15-$20 is the reasonable amount)
into the final result.

  Scottrade charges $14.5-$15 for a round trip. But it costs a lot more to buy less than $1.00 stocks.

  Am I right?

  Also, this month return shown in the home page (opened + closed trades) seems wrong.

  If each round trip trade costs $20 commission, so far this month, the account only lost $117.72. That is a loss of -0.78%, not more than 3% loss.

  Could you check into it?.

 

Quote from: shawFund on December 27, 2005, 01:21:10 PM
Hi, David:

  To reflect the real performance of the portfolio, I suggest that each trade
(buy + sell) should add commission cost ($15-$20 is the reasonable amount)
into the final result.

  Scottrade charges $14.5-$15 for a round trip. But it costs a lot more to buy less than $1.00 stocks.

  Am I right?

  Also, this month return shown in the home page (opened + closed trades) seems wrong.

  If each round trip trade costs $20 commission, so far this month, the account only lost $117.72. That is a loss of -0.78%, not more than 3% loss.

  Could you check into it?.

Yes shawFund, thanks for the alert, Ramsburg is the one that made the programming of the formulas, I'll ask him to check it as soon as he arrives.

As for SMDI, the going says:

There are only 3 trading days left in December and the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio is down 3.79%. I have three options:

1) Do nothing and sell the stocks just before the close of the last trading day of the year
2) Make a desperate try to get into positive territory
3) Clean up the portfolio and get ready to start over again in January

I have 10 years of experience trading stocks and especially futures. It wasn't a passive experience, just holding stocks for the long term. I made more than 5,000 trades during that 10 year period.

I know quite well that nearly everytime that I took one of the first 2 options I lost money and I lost big. Everytime I did nothing in the face of losses I lost more. Everytime I put my neck in risk to save a month I lost more.

When I recently started taking the 3rd option, having patience and ability to start over, I always came out of the reflexion period stronger and more open to all possibilities, inclusive the «make money» possibility.

Considering this, I will sell SMDI around today's open.

Quote from: shawFund on December 27, 2005, 01:21:10 PM
  Also, this month return shown in the home page (opened + closed trades) seems wrong.

  If each round trip trade costs $20 commission, so far this month, the account only lost $117.72. That is a loss of -0.78%, not more than 3% loss.

  Could you check into it?.

I know this question is directed to David, but I will answer anyway. He invests 33.33% of the portfolio each time. $5000 is not always 33.33%, it could be more than $5000 or less. Hope this makes sense.

Quote from: shawFund on December 27, 2005, 01:21:10 PM
Hi, David:

  To reflect the real performance of the portfolio, I suggest that each trade
(buy + sell) should add commission cost ($15-$20 is the reasonable amount)
into the final result.

  Scottrade charges $14.5-$15 for a round trip. But it costs a lot more to buy less than $1.00 stocks.

  Am I right?

  Also, this month return shown in the home page (opened + closed trades) seems wrong.

  If each round trip trade costs $20 commission, so far this month, the account only lost $117.72. That is a loss of -0.78%, not more than 3% loss.

  Could you check into it?.

 

Hi shawFund,

I'll recalculate everything just to make sure there is no mistake, but the position size is not always $5000 like ASR831 just said, so the difference may be there. The 3Fast calculation script was made by me, I believe there is no mistakes, but I'll give you a feedback on this later today.

regards

I've been holding this stock for about 2 weeks now, and have been debating for the last week whether or not to hold through earnings.  From what I can see from the indicators, the stock has been under accumulation for the last 2 months in a strong uptrend (ADX near 50).  The moneyflow indicator shows over $20 million has been flowing into the stock over that time.  I would assume it's mostly institutional investors when large volume is there.  One would wonder why institutional investors would do that if they didn't think earnings would be good. 

But is there any good indicator to use to decide whether or not to hold a stock through earnings?  If so, what's the best in your experience?

I should have entered this stock in the contest instead of RITA! 

Thanks,
Leaira

I decided to hold through earnings, and I'm sure glad I did!!  I see that the stock is set to go up about 20% tomorrow!    ARGHHH!! Now I REALLY wish I entered this stock in the contest instead of RITA!   

RITA doesn't seem to want to move up anymore. 
Hopefully it will over the next month!

Leaira