3SOF

Quote from: willey on December 26, 2005, 11:31:10 PM
Hi David & all holders here.  I'm reasonably sure that "ChangeWave.com" subscribers recently received a sell notice here & THIS is the reason for the very recent downside stock pressure.

All must remain aware that "bigger players" with different agenda's ( raising cash for newer trades ) are frequently "at work" behind the scenes

Hope this helps explain some!  I'd suggest patience here...unless downsides stops are reached!

willey

Thanks for the info willey 

EGHT had a white candle on Friday and perhaps it is setting itself up for a nice rebound. I'm not moving anymore, that is, I'll continue to hold the stock that I got until the end of the year and before the close I'll liquidate all positions.

Why? I feel the more I move the worst it is. I was able to pick good stocks on the 3 SOF Fast December Edition but mostly I sold them too soon.

Now, with just 4 trading days left, probably low volume days, I think I'll do better if I just sit and wait than to change stocks a lot.

So, I'll continue holding EGHT.

EGHT: Short Interest UP 28.4% to 6.9M in Dec 2005
Tuesday , December 27, 2005 16:15 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for 8x8, Incorporated (NasdaqSC: EGHT) INCREASED 28.4% to 6,911,745 shares for the month ended mid-December, 2005.

SYMBOL    NOVEMBER        DECEMBER          CHANGE     %CHANGE      DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
EGHT           5,380,956       6,911,745      +1,530,789       +28.45%           2

Based on EGHT's 20-day average daily share volume of 5,134,545, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

3SOF Fast performance is in bad shape, I'm hoping to see good picks next year goodluck David....

I mean, not too bad

I sold this last Friday when it closed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.  I think it should have bounced off that which it didn`t so I gave up on it knowing it's history.  I traded it early in the year before it totally tanked seriously below $2.

There are only 3 trading days left in December and the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio is down 3.79%. I have three options:

1) Do nothing and sell the stocks just before the close of the last trading day of the year
2) Make a desperate try to get into positive territory
3) Clean up the portfolio and get ready to start over again in January

I have 10 years of experience trading stocks and especially futures. It wasn't a passive experience, just holding stocks for the long term. I made more than 5,000 trades during that 10 year period.

I know quite well that nearly everytime that I took one of the first 2 options I lost money and I lost big. Everytime I did nothing in the face of losses I lost more. Everytime I put my neck in risk to save a month I lost more.

When I recently started taking the 3rd option, having patience and ability to start over, I always came out of the reflexion period stronger and more open to all possibilities, inclusive the «make money» possibility.

Considering this, I will sell EGHT around today's open.

A bit of a pop today, up 10%  on good volume. Have not found any news on why.


Hope its the beginning of another push

uc.

The stock filled the closing gap yesterday so the bounce is pretty normal response - now will see if it continues. A close above $2 would help

This one is a wild one not fast 

Holding my wild horses. Now in green.

sold tooo early 

Bought in today 

stop loss 1.84

active in the pre-market
+14.05%

Some news and up 13% pre- market

8x8 and QDI Wireless Sign Distribution Agreement for Packet8 Internet Phone Services
Wednesday January 4, 8:30 am ET

LAS VEGAS, 2006 Consumer Electronics Show, Jan. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/

-- 8x8, Inc. (Nasdaq: EGHT - News), the Packet8 broadband Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and videophone communications service provider, today announced it has signed a distribution agreement with QDI Quality Distributors LLC, one of the fastest growing master distributors of wireless products and services in the nation.

ADVERTISEMENT
Under terms of the agreement, QDI will offer its 3,500 independently owned and operated wireless retailers the opportunity to resell Packet8 voice and video internet phone services to their residential and business customers. QDI's distribution base is comprised of retailers that run the gamut from single, owner-operated locations in rural strip malls to multiple state, multiple mall kiosk and in-line store locations in major metropolitan areas.

"As the mobile phone industry matures, independent wireless dealers are beginning to look at VoIP phone services as logical extensions of their business," said 8x8 Vice President of Sales & Marketing Huw Rees. "We are pleased to be working with a premier distributor like QDI who has the vision and resources necessary to educate its dealers about VoIP and help them be successful with Packet8 Internet phone services."

As the nation's largest T-Mobile distributor, QDI staffs over 50 District and Territory Managers that are responsible for meeting with retailers on a regular basis to assist with sales training, merchandising, inventory management, cash flow strategies and marketing. Additionally, QDI maintains an in-house print shop and ad agency to further support dealers' local marketing efforts.

"We are very excited about the opportunity to offer our dealer base an entree in the VoIP market with Packet8's innovative, high quality offerings," said QDI President Bill Abbott. "QDI always strives to not only bring new technologies to our distribution partners but to support their marketing efforts with a comprehensive set of tools designed to ensure their success."

QDI will offer the complete line of Packet8 residential and business internet phone services and products including the Freedom Unlimited residential and VideoPhone plans, Freedom Unlimited Global international calling plan and Virtual Office VoIP-Hosted PBX service for small business along with accompanying endpoint devices.

uc.

I want to add EGHT to the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio tomorrow. I'll be looking to get in below Friday's close, say between $1.7 and $1.75. 6.66% of capital as always.

I'm not going to use a very tight stop on this one, clearly the stock may fluctuate for some time before pushing a lot higher. The basis for this trade is both technical and fundamental, so it wouldn't be wise to be shaken out just because of a technical reaction.

Here's the full justification for the trade:

«1. Introduction

I was looking to study less than $5 stocks and EGHT pop on my technical and fundamental screens. I've traded this in the past, who would say it would go as low as $0.65  . Anyway, the chart looks bullish and, to my surprise, fundamentals never stopped improving. Then why the share price collapse? I guess when a stock is bought like EGHT was on those two days in December 05 (47 million shares changed hands in those two days) and it fails to advance, people will then bail out whatever the fundamental picture is, they just can't stand the price decline anymore !

2. Profile

VoIP (voice over internet protocol) service provider 8x8, Inc. (EGHT) offers internet-based telephony solutions ( www.packet8.net ) for individual residential and business users as well as small to medium sized business organizations. In addition to regular Packet8 VoIP service plans priced as low as $19.99 per month for unlimited anytime calling to the U.S. and Canada, 8x8 offers the Packet8 DV 326 VideoPhone, the industry's first stand alone broadband consumer videophone, and accompanying monthly service plans also priced at $19.99 per month. Packet8 Virtual Office, 8x8's VoIP system for small to medium sized businesses, is a hosted PBX solution comprised of powerful business class features. Companies subscribing to Virtual Office pay just $39.99 per month per extension for enterprise class PBX functionality along with unlimited local and long distance calling in the U.S. and Canada. Packet8 Softalk(TM), 8x8's PC-based soft phone client, offers high quality voice and video in-network calling as well as outbound calling to the PSTN. For additional company information, visit 8x8's web site at www.8x8.com.

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart



Nothing surprising on this EGHT all history chart. Since it was a technology related stock, it had its bubble in 2000 and then collapsed.

3.2. Medium Term Chart



The stock had huge bull runs in the past, but it couldn't sustain those high prices. The recent advance phase seems more moderate, is it supported by fundamentals? We'll get to that in a moment.

3.3. Short Term Chart



EGHT's short term chart is showing a strong ascending trend. Volume picks up in every white marubozu along the way. No meaningful gaps were left open.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding



Since these are quarterly numbers, I can't call the increase in the number of outstanding shares "moderate". Unfortunately the company is issuing shares, and the market cap is growing faster than the share price advance implies.

Anyway, the current market cap is just 61.4 million * $1.75 = $107 M.

4.2. Liquidity



The balance sheet is getting a bit weak here, but still $9 M in working capital.

4.3. Revenues



This is the part I like most, ten consecutive quarters of revenue growth. Revenue expectation for the full fiscal 2007 (it ends on March 07) is $55 M.

4.4. Net Income



Well, the company lost money every quarter since 2004, but this latest quarter it cut its losses  in half. Is EGHT turning the corner to profitability?

5. General Overview

Read this excerpts from published news:

- "8x8 Reports 5,000 U.S. Businesses Now Use the Packet8 Virtual Office Phone Service. According to 8x8 Vice President of Sales and Marketing Huw Rees, the adoption rate of the Packet8 Virtual Office service by U.S. based businesses has increased dramatically over the past twelve months, with nearly 1,000 new businesses added in the last quarter alone."

- "Packet8 Virtual Office Business Phone System to Be Sold Through Office Depot Stores Nationwide. Beginning this month (November), Office Depot's stores and website will carry the Packet8 Virtual Office business phone service package for $79.99 (after $50 mail-in rebate)."

- ""Our focus on the business space with Virtual Office affords 8x8 a sustainable and attractive business model. This is evidenced by our gross margins, which grew strongly to 52% for the quarter, and the decreasing customer churn we are seeing due to this segment of our service," continued Mr. Martin."

I think it is becoming apparent, especially from the quarterly revenue numbers, that EGHT now has a successful business model (check their website). This wasn't the case for many years, since the company became public in 1997.

I think this company's business model is one of those "the more, the more", that is, the more costumers they have, the easier it will be to get more (because if you're using a VOIP service, you want everybody else to use it to, to save more on your calls).

Revenues rose an average of 129% for the past 2 years. If this growth continues, EGHT will have revenues of $660 M in 3 years, and its market cap can be 12 times larger than it is now.

I'm a believer in VOIP and I think EGHT can be an attractive long term investment. My biggest worry is dilution. Dilution can make the market cap grow, indeed, by 12 times over the next 3 years, and yet the share price only doubles, for example. So, if I decide to invest on EGHT, I'll watch the number of shares issued and outstanding like a hawk.»

David,
I Like the technicals -I would like to jump right on in there with you.....
Fundamentals improving Revs 13.2m from 7.1m for last years quarter.

What's your view of the Office Depot deal and where do you see this one going ?

It's easy to understand. Office Depot like Comp Us,Fry Elect, etc, are good retail stores, but the average shopper does not know what that point of purchase display and pile of boxes is all about.They walk right on by and are oblivious to what its all about. Its to passive ! The only way to sell this product at this time in any retail space is to have a real live demonstration with a knowledgeable person to help the prospect try it themselves, pick it up make a call see and hear it. Have the salesperson answer any and all questions, the product needs additional credibility for the user..........

52wk Range: 0.65 - 3.39
Volume: 2,218,046
Avg Vol (3m): 617,832

Technicals
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
16.61%above 13-day MA
38.15%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.93 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

Business Overview....
BRIEF: For the three months ended 30 June 2006, 8X8, Inc.'s revenues totaled $12.3M, up from $6M. Net loss increased 12% to $5.7M. Revenues reflect increased license & service revenues and higher product revenues due to $4.9M increase in Packet8 service due to the growth in subscriber base. Higher loss reflects increased selling, general & administrative expenses, increased cost of license & service revenues and higher cost of product revenues. http://www.8x8.com/



                                            Applaud on the Analysis !! 

I also like EGHT, technicals are good.....I bet 3SOF will pull some nice gains here

Applause David!!