3SOF

Quote from: willey on December 29, 2005, 11:34:00 AM
Hi David,

If your short doesn't work out ( my belief ) a measured move in REDF works out to $23 to $25, short term - but what do I know?

Hidden hands are behind this one, I believe

good fortune to all...

willey

Hello willey, I don't know what you know, because you're not telling 

Why do you think REDF will rise? I see a company with a sky rocketing price to sales ratio and not all that much revenue growth.

Anyway, I have a 4.59% profit on this short position and I intend to let the profits run.

If the general market tanks as I expect REDF will go down not less than 50% from current levels in 6 months time.

What I see REDF:

Still in uptrend with higher lows and higher highs.

Today was at least short term bounce from 50-day as it has done many times so expcted - the MACD though still is weak thugh as long as it stays aboe the 50-day it is still ok.

Hi folks,

I would NOT short REDF or IIJI...these stocks have their own internals not shown on TA.

These stocks will respond to GOOG's direction ( the euphoria over selected internets, including YHOO )

GOOG's setting up to blast off higher, IMO

the Dow's setting up to blow thru 11,000 this month

all JMHO, of course...do the necessary DD!

willey ( the golds are gonna SHINE!!!!!!!! )

I'm also confused on this trade. I thought we were using 19.30 as the trendline on Dec 29th. With that trendline coming in at about 19.08 it looks to me as though this trade should have been covered on the close. If not are we looking at 19.30 or 19.90?

Hi again, David,

<<Hello willey, I don't know what you know, because you're not telling >>.....

Actually you do know what I know ( I have no inside knowledge here ).  You just look at the data differently!  You don't see the sector play setting up, apparently.  You don't see the REDF significance in the Indian community.  You don't see the "relative insignificance" of the SIFY in the Indian community.

all JMHO, of course...

Good fortune to all ( shorts or longs )

willey

One short candidate: NFLX

After strong bullish runs, the stock gained 300% from $10 to $30, then its price moved on lower highs. I would like to short it on strength.

It is down two days in row even on market rally yesterday.

NFLX is an excellent choice Shawfund, but both Scottrade and Schwab have it as unavailable.

Any suggestions?

You want a good short: FITB.

This bank is in trouble, with squeezing margins, bankruptcies and top management resignations, including the CFO. You want more signs that a compnay is going down than the CFO resigning? Their 4th quarter is going to come in way below guidance.

Perhaps I should have bought SIFY back on the dip as a REDF hedge 

Anyway, I'm sorry for some confusion on this trade, you need to always keep attention to the newsletter, that's where the clear instruction is.

willey is opening is mauf a little more, I welcome it 

And yes, I'm not aware of the strenght of the two brands on the indian community, REDF and SIFY (REDF being more known than SIFY). But that isn't an investment criteria that I use, if REDF is so known, how come it generates so little on revenues (compared to market cap) and not all that much revenue growth?

As for the sector play, I don't think internet's will run much further this year, in fact I think they will collapse over the coming weeks/months, we'll see.

Considering REDF short, I think the stock is developing a head and shoulders pattern. The sholder stands at about $19.90. If there is confirmation of the pattern (which would occur on a close below the neckline, which stands at about $17.92), the target would be $22.12-$17.92=$4.2.  $17.92-$4.2 = $13.72.

So here's my trading setup:

1) REDF can't be set to close above $20.11 or I'll buy to cover (I have to give some room for a not so significant cut)
2) On the event that the H&S pattern confirms itself, I'll trade that pattern and take profits on the projected target.

I'll continue to monitor the H&S pattern on the chart below, to see if it plays out or not.

If we get a close above $20.11 the H&S pattern is no longer valid. If we get a close below the neckline, today at $17.84, the H&S pattern is confirmed and the technical target is something like $12.56 (yesterday I made a calculus mistake on the target, one should use the neckline level to the head, not the breakdown level to the head, to know the technical target).

So the trading plan remains:

1) HOLD REDF SHORT, unless it closes above $20.11.

I bought [email protected] short today.  The stock was moving up on low volume.  Buyers are all dried up.

Same for SIFY, I bought [email protected].  It could not break bast that.  Test four times throughout trading day.  With a huge day in the market it was not moving.  Started to sell off in the end.  I feel both of these stocks are overvalued at this point and the market will soon take effect.

Good luck to my shorties!

nobody has been paying attention that Oil is $64 a barrel.  I find this very odd that the market ignored this today, guesss wall street wants big money to come into the game so they are pressing the numbers up, the set up is beginning.  I could be wrong, but not alot of new money flowed into this rally.  Earnings starts in two weeks, I guess we'll figure it all out then.

One chart has several interpretations.

Only the fact can prove which one is right.

The fact is: it is still in uptrend.

Today's high of $21.16 met some profit taking presure.

But the buyers will come in to buy at around $20 and push the stock higher.

It will re-test year high of $22 in few days.

QuoteI bought [email protected] short today.  The stock was moving up on low volume.  Buyers are all dried up.

You mean you sold REDF short saffeysite. I think you did well, but I had to buy to cover just before the close, according to plan.

I bought REDF to cover my short position at $20.18, I still believe the stock is very overvalued and it doesn't make any sense, but I'm aware that often the market doesn't makes sense, it just goes where it wants to go without any regard for my financial health.

I can't control the markets or one individual stock behaviour, but there's one thing I can control: myself.

As said in the newsletter and SIFY's thread, I sold REDF short around today's open, price $19.46 (it seems it was a bit early).

More information on the next update (you can also check this thread for information on REDF and the SIFY's thread).