3SOF

1. Profile

Telewest Global, Inc. (TLWT), through its direct and indirect subsidiaries, operates as a broadband communications and media company in the United Kingdom (UK). The company's Cable segment includes two divisions, Consumer Sales and Business Sales. The Consumer Sales division provides consumer television, telephony, and Internet access services to residential customers. The Business Sales division provides a range of voice, data, and managed solutions services for businesses. Telewest Global's Content segment supplies basic television channels and related services to the UK pay-television broadcasting market. As of March 8, 2005, the company's broadband, local access broadcasting network covered 4.7 million homes; and provided multichannel television, telephone, and Internet services to 1.76 million residential customers. Telewest Global was founded in 1940 and is based in London.

2. Technical Analysis

2.1. Long Term Chart



TLWT has been climbing since its listing on the Nasdaq. The stock is at an all time high.

2.2. Medium Term Chart



It seems TLWT just broke out of a 6 month narrow range with higher lows and higher highs. Perhaps a new bull trend is emerging.

2.3. Short Term Chart



CLWT is bullish on all time frames.

3. Fundamental Analysis

3.1. Outstanding Shares



This company has been buying back its own shares every quarter.

3.2. Current Ratio



I would like to have a better Current Ratio (Assets/Liabilities), but I find that it is almost impossible to find a stock that meets all criteria.

3.3. Revenues



We have strong quarter on quarter revenue growth.

3.4. EPS



We have profits and those profits are expected to grow fast next year.

3.5. Competitors



That P/E for TLWT isn't correct. If the company is able to increase its net margin (since gross margins are so high) the share price will at least double.

4. General Overview

I know this stock isn't perfect, it has some flaws, like every one of them. But it is trading at an all time high and the company is aggressively buying back shares. That's enough for me to get in.

5. Trading Plan

I'll buy TLWT around today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of capital as always. Then I'll update this analysis everyday after the close until I sell the stock.

I just saw that some charts on this analysis are not on the right place, I have to correct that after the open.

But nothing has changed, the stock is nearly unchanged since I bought it, I'll continue holding TLWT.

Hi, David
I noticed that institution holding of tlwt is aroung 91.9%. Do you think we should still hold it?

Thanks.

Quote from: huayilu on January 05, 2006, 11:43:28 PM
Hi, David
I noticed that institution holding of tlwt is aroung 91.9%. Do you think we should still hold it?

Thanks.

Why not? Why do you think that when institutional holding is high the stock won't rise? Thanks.

I know this isn't an exciting pick, the stock barely moves, but I have some trouble finding good enough long picks (probably the problem is just me, I'm looking too deep and perhaps I'm dazzed and confuzed like Led Zeppelin).

I'll just design a trading plan and keep on holding, fundamentals seem great, but nobody knows what will be the effect of a bear market on TLWT.

The plan is to hold for as long as the stock is set to close above the red ascending trendline on the chart below, which is technically very significant. That trendline today stands at $23.14.

Quote from: David Randolph on January 06, 2006, 08:44:28 AM
I have some trouble finding good enough long picks (probably the problem is just me, I'm looking too deep and perhaps I'm dazzed and confuzed like Led Zeppelin).

That's perplexing! Especially given this bull market! Just looking at some stocks like AAPL, GOOG, HANS, NVDA, etc. makes me wonder where the great David and his magic are during this time. 

I'm sure it will come soon enough!

I just fixed the initial post with the number of shares outstanding. Now you can clearly check this company has been buying back its own shares every quarter.

Quote from: irod on January 09, 2006, 07:23:58 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on January 06, 2006, 08:44:28 AM
I have some trouble finding good enough long picks (probably the problem is just me, I'm looking too deep and perhaps I'm dazzed and confuzed like Led Zeppelin).

That's perplexing! Especially given this bull market! Just looking at some stocks like AAPL, GOOG, HANS, NVDA, etc. makes me wonder where the great David and his magic are during this time. 

I'm sure it will come soon enough!

Well, that quote was from January 3 before the open, where I was bearish and most stocks had bad charts. The situation is completely different now, but I failed to forecast that. Now I guess I just have to adapt 

Good luck on your trades irod 

TLWT barely moves, but it is still in short/medium and long term uptrend. A bullish move above $24 can occur anytime. I'll continue holding the stock, unless it is set to close below its long term ascending trendline, tomorrow at $23.20.

TLWT is probably the most boring stock there is on the entire NYSE  It looks more like a bond than a stock ... but when I think that I sold many stocks because I was «bored», just before they took off to confirm my views ...

To be bored isn't a valid motive to sell a stock and close a trade. Sometimes stocks need time. Flexibility is important. But patience to wait for your view to develop goes a long way.

Since I day traded futures for so many years now perhaps I need to develop my patience skills. TLWT can be a good stock to teach me how to be patient.

I'll continue holding TLWT, and forget about that technical stop, I'll be here to update the analysis everyday with new developments.

We had a bit more of volume and TLWT closed near the high of the day. Perhaps it is getting ready for a white marubozu to new highs?

I'll continue holding TLWT long, at least for as long as I don't find the opportunity cost very high.

TLWT's volume is picking up nicely. Let's see what the stock decides to do now, I'll continue holding anyway.

Quote from: David Randolph on January 13, 2006, 06:35:57 AM
TLWT's volume is picking up nicely. Let's see what the stock decides to do now, I'll continue holding anyway.

TLWT decided to head down, I don't see this holding to continue for much longer on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio. For sure it isn't on fire. But I'll hold on to it a little longer, as I search for better picks when I write the daily «3 Stocks on Fire».

QuoteTLWT decided to head down, I don't see this holding to continue for much longer on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio. For sure it isn't on fire. But I'll hold on to it a little longer, as I search for better picks when I write the daily «3 Stocks on Fire».

TLWT isn't the right stock to own on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, but since I'm not buying any today, I'll hold on to it a little longer (maybe I'll be able to take out a small profit in this - also not much risk here).

So I'll keep on holding TLWT for a few more days, until I'm able to find better stocks to replace it.

TLWT is still sleeping, and unfortunately I didn't have any time to look for better stocks to replace it. The stock broke down a little bit, but the candlestick was a doji, so I see that investors are not really decided to sell. Probably the stock will come back to the previous extremely tight range today.

I'll hold TLWT a little longer, anytime it can have a white marubozu to new highs above $24. Strange stock, perhaps a typical UK stock, that market is the oldest and less volatile in the world.

Quote from: David Randolph on January 24, 2006, 06:34:45 AM
TLWT is still sleeping, and unfortunately I didn't have any time to look for better stocks to replace it. The stock broke down a little bit, but the candlestick was a doji, so I see that investors are not really decided to sell. Probably the stock will come back to the previous extremely tight range today.

I'll hold TLWT a little longer, anytime it can have a white marubozu to new highs above $24. Strange stock, perhaps a typical UK stock, that market is the oldest and less volatile in the world.

TLWT didn't come back to the previous range and it is starting to bite a bit here. I'll take a small loss today (-2.35%) because this isn't the kind of stock that I want on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

I need to take corrective action as I get more information and knowledge. I'll sell TLWT around today's open.