3SOF

Stock Picking Contest (3rd Edition - From 23/Jan/2006 to 27/Feb/2006)

To Submit your Stock Pick, reply to this Topic following the Standard Layout:

1)   Stock Pick
(Ticker & Name of the Company)

2)   Reason behind this pick
(a Text with at least 50 words, featuring the reasons of your stock pick)

3)   Stock Chart
(Click in additional options, browse for your chart file GIF/JPG/PNG and add it to your post, if you don't have a Charting software, we suggest you copy a chart from www.stockcharts.com)

Important: Do not use this thread to another purpose rather than submitting your stock pick. For organizational purposes, any reply that is not a stock pick will be deleted.

1) Taseko Mines Ltd. (TGB)


2) Reason Behind this pick:

--- TGB just made new high recently
--- Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
--- Relative Strength is Bullish.
--- Prices just staying above the 13 day EMA, & that exactly what i want to stay bullish in the stock.
--- Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation
--- Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend

Quote from: Terlisa on January 18, 2006, 12:31:14 AM
***TGB in the making*** ----- just like EGO, http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3906.0

As i look deeper on the chart of TGB, i get more excited so i bought back my shares today
I have bought TGB couple weeks ago & sold it before the pullback & now it's coming back with more higher volume (record volume)

--- The company's cash & revenue has increased
--- & the total Cash from operations decreasing


A rectangle is a chart pattern that contains price movements between two parallel lines. they usually horizontal but can sometimes slant up or down. You need at least four points to draw a rectangle: the upper line connects two rally tops, and the lower line connects two bottoms. these lines should be drawn through the edges of congestion areas rather than across the extreme highs and lows.

As you can see from the chart below, Bulls obviously won the battle within the Slant Down rectangle pattern & back by high volume... I believe TGB will make new highs in the coming days & weeks GOODLUCK!!!!

3.) CHART:

1)   Stock Pick: -------------- DROOY  Drdgold Ltd (NASDAQ SC

2)   Reason behind this pick

Same as last contest, I keep rating DROOY as a strong buy in this month. we are clearly in a gold bull market that is already out performing all the other market sectors, and 2006 should be a great year for precious metal.

Dollar Gold have enjoyed consistent rising during past weeks and even months, however, Rand gold showing relative weak at this point. The chart shows that it is going to break out to the all time high, properly within several weeks. with such an action of gold bullion, I believe that South Africa gold stocks are likely to produce a far superior performance to their North American counterparts for the next phase.

From TA side: Elliott moves in a series of repeating five waves with a corrective wave in between each set of five waves. when the market entered wave 3 we can expect fireworks on the upside. That is exactly where we are on the JSE Gold index at this point of time.

GFI/HMY currently leading the break out all the way. but undervalued DROOY might have greater potential at this time. The breakout of the reverse head and shoulders pattern, with neckline resistance at $1.5-$1.6, already indicated a short term target $2.50 minimum. if we can take off the resistance around $2.4-$2.5, the sky will be limit ...

3) TA chart indicates breakout with volume

1)
ENDWAVE (ENWV)

2)
UNNYVALE, Calif., Jan. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Endwave Corporation (Nasdaq: ENWV - News), a leading provider of high frequency RF modules for telecommunications networks, defense electronics and homeland security systems, today announced that it expects to report fourth quarter 2005 revenues of approximately $13.0 million, compared with $14.3 million in the prior quarter and $11.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2004. Revenues for 2005 are expected to be approximately $49 million, an increase of more than 45% from $33.2 million in 2004.

"During the fourth quarter, we incurred delays in some telecom orders until early 2006 which led to a quarter over quarter decrease in our telecom revenues," said Ed Keible, Endwave's CEO and President. "We are pleased to report, however, that revenue from our non-telecom business is anticipated to grow more than 20% from the third quarter of 2005, and to more than double for the year. Further, we are pleased to report significant year over year revenue growth, and believe the outlook for Endwave remains strong."

latest news:
a)
ENWV/NOK: Endwave in Long-Term Pact with Nokia
Friday , January 06, 2006 08:32 ET
Endwave Corporation (ENWV) signed a long-term purchase agreement with its largest customer, Nokia Corporation(NOK), covering the terms and conditions of the sale of various Endwave transceiver products to Nokia. The purchase agreement is effective as of January 1, 2006 and provides a continuous bridge from the previous multi-year purchase agreement between the companies, which concluded on December 31, 2005. The purchase agreement does not provide for an expiration date and may only be terminated by either party upon 18 months' prior written notice or upon the occurrence of certain events listed in the purchase agreement.
b)
On January 16, 2006, Endwave Corporation entered into a frame purchase
agreement with Siemens S.p.A. As with all frame agreements, the Siemens
agreement provides for the general terms and conditions of purchases of Endwave
products by Siemens, but does not contain any obligation to purchase by Siemens.
Any purchase obligations would be evidenced by purchase orders issued pursuant
to the terms of the frame agreement. The specific Endwave products covered by
this agreement include various models of microwave radio frequency transceivers
to be supplied for Siemens' global cellular telephone network and backhaul
market products. The term of the agreement is 36 months, and applies to all
purchases of radio transceiver orders during the term from any qualifying
Siemens operating unit, affiliate, or subsidiary.....

39 slides presentation:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/needham13/enwv/

Use the 3stocksonfire search functionality to receive more infos about ENWV

my pick is NGEN   I'm not much  on hype, just like the chart action.

My Pick:
XDSL, Mphase technologies inc.

Why?:
XDSL is a company in the nano tech world. They recently made a magnetometer in conjunction with Bell labs. This magnetometer is the size of a penny and it can detect magnetic fields. It is 1000 thousand times more sesnsitive than a radar detectos used at airports. The uses for this magnetometer are endless. This is a highly speculative play but it's the kind you need to pick in order to win a short contest like this, so I believe it will go up I just hope it's quick enough to win the contest!

Chart:

Ok, scratch the previous pick! I forgot I can't pick penny stocks. Sorry Ramsburg.

My picks is (for real this time, hehe) WPCS

Wpcs is in wireless technonolgy, they have contracts with the government,hospitals and many local governments entities. I'm picking WPCS for its potential to rise  because it is a small cap company that has rising revenues and is very profitable.The stock recently bounced off its 20 dma here, so I'm hoping for a uptrend to start here off that bounce. Here's the chart:

         
          1) SmarTire System Inc

          2) Reason behind this pick:
             
              - SMTR is a company in the nano tech world
              - Chart pattern indicate strong up trend
              - volume indicate that the stock is under accumulation

           3) Chart

                  1) Xoma Ltd



                  2) Reasons

                      - Volume indicates that is under accumulation
                      - Chart pattern indicates strong potencial



                   3) Chart

My pick for 3rd edition is DEZ.
Desert Sun Mining corporation.

Chart Analysis:
Please refer to Previous 3SOF pick thread for all analysis. Currently trading at 3.5

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3703.15

Let me know if I need to post the analysis here

1) UTSI  - UTStarcom Inc.

2) News out of India and China recently indicate that UTSI is ready to recover. Strong insider buys in the last few months in the $8.50 range show good confidence, and IPTV is a hot sector overseas. This stock historically lays a flat line for stretches, then breaks. It's been flat for about 3 months now and is ready to break with more positive news. Good luck all.

3) Chart attached

Good Morning !

This will be my first time in the contest.  Fousc's interview was great and it got me excited to play.  Most of my trades are in the OTC market.  I had to scramble to pick a (normal and rational company (non OTC)   ) to enter in the contest.  Being that I gravitate towards competition, I cannot miss out on this round of the game. 

The list that I considered was DOW, CHK & DOX.  I am going with DOX.

The link provides the most recent chart. 
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=dox

* Some people were playing DOX into the rumor of a deal with Sprint-Nextel.  They were correct.  A preliminary deal was confirmed this week.  I was hoping to get this in as a play into the rumor as DOX rose quite a bit on the news.  So will people now sell DOX off back into the high $ 20's ?  It remains to be seen.  The chart is quite interesting.  The plan is that all of the gaps do not get filled on a retrace.  Perhaps the volume and interest generated with the Sprint-Nextel deal can justify the gap up in price.  Aside from the deal, DOX had a record quarter that was recently reported (information is below my commentary).  The guess is that DOX will pullback from some traders exiting near term.  The most exciting part would to be in last place heading into the end of the Stock Picking Contest.  Then on the last day an influx of volume and buying to move it well above the buy price and winning by a tiny percentage.   We will see.  Regardless, DOX is one to watch moving forward.  The Sprint-Nextel deal will add much revenue, profit and record quarter growth moving forward. 

Enjoy the game & Good Luck  !  We cannot let Fousc repeat.   
-Jeff-

Press Release Source: Amdocs Limited

Amdocs Limited Reports Record Revenue of $587 Million for First Quarter of Fiscal 2006
Wednesday January 18, 4:01 pm ET 
24% Growth in Diluted Earnings Per Share Before Certain Items to $0.42; Diluted GAAP EPS of $0.36
Key highlights:
- First quarter revenue grew 25% to $587 million
- 24% increase in first quarter diluted EPS, excluding acquisition-related costs and equity-based compensation expense, net of related tax effects, to $0.42; Exceeds guidance of $0.40
- Diluted GAAP EPS of $0.36
- Free cash flow of $69 million for the quarter
- After the quarter, Sprint Nextel selected Amdocs to provide a single platform to support its more than 46 million wireless subscribers
- Second quarter fiscal 2006 guidance: Expected revenue of approximately $600 million and diluted EPS of $0.42, excluding acquisition-related costs, net of related tax effects, and approximately $0.04-$0.05 per share of equity-based compensation expense. Diluted GAAP EPS is expected to be approximately $0.35-$0.36
- Updated fiscal 2006 guidance: Expected revenue of approximately $2.42-$2.47 billion and diluted EPS of $1.68-$1.72, excluding acquisition-related costs, net of related tax effects, and approximately $0.16-$0.19 per share of equity-based compensation expense. Diluted GAAP EPS is expected to be approximately $1.40-$1.47


ST. LOUIS, Jan. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Amdocs Limited (NYSE: DOX - News) today reported that for the first quarter ended December 31, 2005, revenue was $587.0 million, an increase of 25.0% from last year's first quarter. Excluding acquisition-related costs and equity-based compensation expense, net of related tax effects, of $14.7 million, net income was $90.0 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, compared to net income, excluding $3.0 million of acquisition-related costs net of related tax effects, of $72.4 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2005. The Company's net income was $75.3 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, compared to net income of $69.4 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2005. Free cash flow, defined as cash flow from operations less net capital expenditures and principal payments on capital leases, was $69.3 million in the quarter.
ADVERTISEMENT

Dov Baharav, Chief Executive Officer of Amdocs Management Limited, said, "We continue to execute according to plan as shown by our very good financial performance and the new business we signed during the quarter. Many of this quarter's sales highlight the fact that service providers are looking for an integrated, best-of-suite offering that allows them to leverage their existing investments with Amdocs as they expand their system capabilities in order to cope with consolidation and industry convergence. Service providers are also looking for solutions to support rapid introduction of new, IP-based and bundled services, while reducing total cost of ownership. Our leading product offering combined with our track record of delivery in complex projects makes us the vendor of choice as we demonstrated with our nine significant new wins this quarter."

"We expect that the continuation of the industry dynamics that contributed to our success in 2005 will also drive our performance in 2006. We are the leading provider to our market and our unique ability to address these needs combined with our top-tier customer base gives us confidence that 2006 will be an exceptional year for Amdocs," continued Baharav.

The Amdocs wins in the first quarter span lines of business and geographies. They include an expansion of Amdocs activities at a major North American wireless carrier as this carrier consolidates systems across markets. In Europe, Amdocs will support an existing customer as this customer expands its MVNO-related activities. In the directory business, Amdocs is building on its long-term relationships with AT&T and BellSouth to help YELLOWPAGES.COM efficiently manage customer data and digital content, as well as to automate all online advertising workflow activities. The Company is also in the initial stages of a large project to provide software and managed services to a wireless customer in Europe.

On January 17, 2006, Sprint Nextel announced that it has reached a preliminary agreement with Amdocs to provide a single platform to support Sprint Nextel's more than 46 million wireless subscribers. Said Baharav, "We are delighted that Sprint Nextel has reconfirmed Amdocs as a strategic partner and we look forward to a long and mutually rewarding relationship with Sprint Nextel."

In the first quarter of fiscal 2006 Amdocs adopted Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 123 (revised 2004), Share-based Payment, which requires the expensing of equity-based compensation. Equity-based compensation expense was $9.7 million, net of tax, or $0.04 per diluted share, in the first quarter.

Financial Outlook

Amdocs expects that revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2006 ending March 31, 2006, will be approximately $600 million. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter are expected to be $0.42, excluding acquisition-related costs, net of related tax effects, and the impact of approximately $0.04-$0.05 per share of equity-based compensation expense. Diluted GAAP EPS is expected to be approximately $0.35-$0.36.

Updated fiscal 2006 guidance: Expected revenue of approximately $2.42- $2.47 billion and diluted EPS of $1.68-$1.72, excluding acquisition-related costs, net of related tax effects, and approximately $0.16-$0.19 per share of equity-based compensation expense. Diluted GAAP EPS is expected to be approximately $1.40-$1.47.

Amdocs will host a conference call on January 18, 2006 at 5 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the Company's first quarter results. The call will be carried live on the Internet via http://www.vcall.com and the Amdocs website, http://www.amdocs.com.

About Amdocs

Amdocs combines innovative software and services with deep business knowledge to accelerate implementation of integrated customer management by the world's leading service providers. By delivering a comprehensive portfolio of software and services that spans the customer lifecycle, Amdocs enables service companies to deliver an intentional customer experience(TM), which results in stronger, more profitable customer relationships. Service providers also benefit from a rapid return on investment, lower total cost of ownership and improved operational efficiencies. A global company with revenue of $2.039 billion in fiscal 2005, Amdocs employs about 12,000 IT professionals and serves customers in more than 50 countries around the world. For more information, visit Amdocs at http://www.amdocs.com.




 

1) ISV -  INSITE VISION INC COM

2) They are an inexpensive stock, between $1 and $5 which typically can give large percentage gains in a short period of time.  They have a product which is in great demand (they work with eyes).  They also recently recieved needed funding and are completeing their required studies.  Overall, they are in a position for their stock price to appreciate over the next month.

3) Chart

My pick is LOUD

Reason: Watched it for quite a while and seen it hit rock bottom. 
Due for a breakout, good holiday sales.
Increasing Volume
Earnings will tell if this flies or dies

Link to chart:   http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=LOUD

My pick is PYR

Reason: 
1. Rock bottom, upgrade trend with long-term. 
2. Oil section.
3. 3rd times for probing bottom.
4. Increasing Volume
5. Reorganized company.
6. Experienced management team.
7. Recent news from drilling and productivity: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060118/law022.html?.v=38

Decison:
Load it at $1.78

Link to chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=PYR,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dd][pb5!b10][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=PYR,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iue12,26,9!lc20]