3SOF

Quote from: metro on January 18, 2006, 08:13:33 AM
Many of you may know Alan Farley at realmoney or seen him on CNBC. In talking of some stocks under $10 yesterday he mentioned DIET and in that wrote. "...Weight-control stocks can be very strong in January as overeaters resolve to live healthier lifestyles. But seasonality is winding down for this speculative sector..."

Interesting as I never figured they has a "season" to be strong. It has double in price in 6 weeks and has that 2004 resistance at 9.55.

Hello metro 

I think what Alan Farley says is nonsense. That's like saying «beverage stocks go up in the Summer because people drink more», or «retail stocks go up near Christmas because they sell more at that season». Every year there is Summer, every year there is Christmas, and every year there are new year resolutions.

Yes, companies have seasonality on their revenue and earnings, but since that happens every year, I find it hard to believe stocks move on that seasonality too. I guess Alan Farley just didn't do enough DD, on NTRI or DIET, to come up with a sentence like that ... revenues this January will be much, much higher than previous January's, and that's not on seasonality, it is the fact that these companies have a complete new service to offer their costumers.

I bought DIET today for the Long Term on Fire Portfolio at an average price of $7.50 and I'm prepared to hold it for the long term.

Hi, David:

   How much money you are going to put into this portfolio?

  $100,000?

  If so, each position will start with $10K. Am I right?

Quote from: shawFund on January 18, 2006, 07:20:24 PM
Hi, David:

   How much money you are going to put into this portfolio?

  $100,000?

  If so, each position will start with $10K. Am I right?

Hi ShawFund,

Yes, thats right.

This could be good news for DIET.  MED is also in the same industry, though half the mkt cap.  They also offer meals for online order and various diet plans.

Medifast sees higher FY05, FY06 revenue

Jan 17 (Reuters) - Medifast Inc. (MED.A: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it expects a 47 percent rise in 2005 revenue at $40 million, helped by an increase in direct sales.

For 2005, two analysts on average expected the company to earn revenue of $37.7 million, according to Reuters Estimates.

The maker of consumable health and diet products said it expects 2006 profit of 22 cents to 24 cents per share on revenue of $48 million to $50 million.

For 2006, two analysts on average expect the company to earn 25 cents per share, excluding special items on revenue of $45.3 million, according to Reuters Estimates.


Profile:
Medifast, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of weight and disease management products, and other consumable health and diet products. The company's product lines include weight and disease management, meal replacement, and sports nutrition products. It offers various weight and disease management products under the Medifast brand and for select private label customers.

The stock is behaving a lot similar to VPHM when it started to move. Watch it closely.

I noticed the same - DIET is acting very similar to the way VPHM was trading when it was just getting started. I bought VPHM around the $6 level and rode most of it while I traded it. If I just would have bought more on pullbacks instead of trading I would have made over 2 Million dollars.  I see DIET acting the same way.  Corrects itself intra-day with a lot of people on the side lines waiting to jump in on any pullback. The new Fresh Cuisine concept in going to increase revenues in a big way and the new CEO is a no-nonsense guy who really wants to grow this business.  I think we have another VPHM on our hands here. In fact, once revenues from the new products are out it will be better than VPHM. Goodluck guys, don't be so fast to trade this as to buy a little and then buy on pullbacks. I have found that is the best way to make money in these EPS winners.

I'm not sure that I'm replying correctly here (meant to try to reply to David's earlier post).

DIET showed up on several of my recent IBD Screens.  It shows up quite nicely with an EPS Rating of 76 and RS (Relative Strength) of 97.  IBD prefers EPS ratings of 80 or better but I find a lot of stocks that are getting ready to move up significantly seem to have an EPS Rating of 75 to 77 on IBD. 

The only thing that bothers me about this stock is the cash flow is negative and the free cash flow (cash flow above expenditures) is slightly positive and declined a bit from last quarter as I read it. Although after just looking at the Free Cash Flow from 31 Mar this stock has appeared to make a considerable turnaround to the psoitive side all things considered.  Overall the fundamentals are positive to a bit mixed; but it looks like one of those stocks that will catch the eye of increasing numbers of institutional investors given its apparent turnaround from previous quarters.

Quote from: mmcmanus on January 23, 2006, 07:35:32 AM
The only thing that bothers me about this stock is the cash flow is negative and the free cash flow (cash flow above expenditures) is slightly positive and declined a bit from last quarter as I read it. Although after just looking at the Free Cash Flow from 31 Mar this stock has appeared to make a considerable turnaround to the psoitive side all things considered.  Overall the fundamentals are positive to a bit mixed; but it looks like one of those stocks that will catch the eye of increasing numbers of institutional investors given its apparent turnaround from previous quarters.

This turnaround is based on previous earnings reports and don't include their new food service.  Even if FreshCuisine is only marginally successful, revenues should increase greatly (as well as costs).  Imagine what the next couple of quarters have in store for eDiet's financial picture once FreshCuisine gets going.

Thanks that gives an added context to my comments.  I'll have to look at that more.  Also I see this stock is just under $8 so it could pull back.  If it does the pullback it could go as far as $7 to $7.25 (but at the moment I'm doubting that scenario given its relative strength).  I'm thinking it would pullback to some point above that.  I would like to enter but I wonder if I need to see how this reacts around $8.  Perhaps it will pullback to a secondary trend line (that needs to be etched out).  Actually the more I look at it -- it seems that it has pulled back previously and touched just at the top of a cup like formation that goes back to about March 04.  Any thoughts on an entry at this point?  (Say enter above $8 if it breaks above and pulls back to that level in a couple of days or alternatively at $7.50 if it runs into a little trouble here?).  Mike

possible trend reversal in sight.

-Resistence appeared at around 8.16 which was the right shoulder peak of a head and shoulders pattern that occured about a year ago.

-hangman candle, a bearish top reversal candle, followed by to red candles of confirmation wich also broke down the ascending trendline.

-MACD about to cross downwards

-RSI heading down

Curious to see how this technical breakdown pans out. The trend line was pretty steep with an upward slope of 14.5 cents/ day so it was bound to break sometime soon. Possibly looking to get in once the dust settles.

Good luck everyone holding,

-fous

The big volume picked up on DIET at around 20 Dec, 2005. I suspect the new resolution in play. I think DIET may have to come up with some solid figures in earnings to convience that its next NTRI. Though it look a play to be kept on radar list.

I like pullbacks to the 20 ema/center BB during a bullish breakout. Often a great spot to buy or add. I may enter tomorrow. I think the low will be retested, but it will close slightly higher than today. That's what my crystal ball is saying anyway.

I shorted NTRI today. Looks toppy.

I am considering ordering the Nutrisystem food plan. Trying to lose 10 pounds or so. I eat out way too often. Checked the eDiets food plan and it's more than I want to pay. Funny though that I shorted NTRI and am looking at buying DIET when NTRI's food plan is the one I'm considering.

Thanks for all the analysis and comments on DIET. Yes, fous is right, the ascending trendline was broken, but it was too steep anyway.

I guess that not much people see the value on DIET's stock because it still didn't show up on the quarterly numbers. For now it looks like investors are going with that seasonality story. Only when the company reports the 1st quarter results everybody will probably see what we're discussing now.

I got this post from Yahoo Message Board:

«I called the company today
by: dead_beet_dad
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    01/25/06 02:13 pm
Msg: 3451 of 3514

and asked them how the Fresh Cuisine program was doing. Exact words" Very good response, better than they thought, and members are telling them the food taste great and much better than what Nutri-system is offering". This was encouraging to me, I really don't know why people are selling this stock but after my contact with the company I plan on being a shareholder. Please call them or email them and they will respond.»

I don't like to call since my English isn't very good, but if anyone of you pleases ... thanks 

I'll continue holding DIET, despite the technical scares. Even technically one must consider that the previous trendline was too steep and the stock was overbought.

I see a nice entering point around current levels, my buying point was $6.90.

It's up pre-market... Not a lot, but still.

Amarens

Well that didn't contribute to anything 


Amarens