3SOF

Message from Yahoo Board
by: elgounatimes

Hi everybody, I'm a Belgian (small country in Europe) stockholder of TGB.
Owned it a few years ago - bought at CAD 2,40 and sold at 1,60 - so made some loss.

But things have changed dramatically since that period.

Copper prices rocketed from 1,30lb to 2,23lb

During September, October got back into this stock. Why!!! Because it was just "so cheap".

There are some good posters on this board, I'm already reading your comments for several months. I'm also on the Stockhouse TKO board, but seems to me all posters went to this board!!

I want to add my espectations regarding earnings 2006.
2006 will be huge !!!
It's true copper prices increased a lot since Oct.1 - till todays prices of 2,23lb !!
This also means we haven't seen this nice results in the books of TGB yet.
Q1 is already great - Q2 even greater - and if Copper price is still at these levels and of March 06, Q3 much greater.
Why? At the time of shipping, they hedge their copper, but earnings will be received about 3 months later so..... March + 3months = end of June = end of Q3 ..... Just one quarter to hold those prices and the FULL YEAR will be just fantastic.
I'm talking about earnings of about O,40-0,50USD.
This will be their full year of production!!! All is about in line, moly recup. much better then '05 and higher production quantity also!!

Costs have rised, but still are under control!
'05 Cost = 1,05 Copper Price = 1,45 (0,40)
'06 Cost = 1,17 Copper Price = 1,97 (0,80)

These simplified figures just implicate profit will be doubled .... but price of Copper is even better!!!

Just keep it simple - look at the copper price and full production and money is flowing into the company....... E/S = 4 and still no taxes to be paid !!!


So I'm holding all my stocks just because we're going to see new highs on this one.
I believe Russell Hallbauer will lift this company to a much higher level.

hey Terlisa.. I already applauded you for this pick because it is really a nice looking chart.    Gotta applaud again for all the great info and charting.  I wanted to point out CUP to you.  Another nice copper play with a pretty chart.

Quote from: eliteG on January 29, 2006, 10:24:57 PM
hey Terlisa.. I already applauded you for this pick because it is really a nice looking chart.    Gotta applaud again for all the great info and charting.  I wanted to point out CUP to you.  Another nice copper play with a pretty chart.

Nice to see you on this thread EliteG, Cheers!!

Copper price to keep pumping this year & the coming years as China & India's economic expansion is continuing at a very rapid pace , read the article:
http://www.miningmx.com/mining_fin/843425.htm

I'm watching @ level 2 riight now.... looks like TGB will close @ HOD ... WOW is that a big blocks right there 1 minute before the close?

Quote from: Terlisa on January 30, 2006, 04:00:21 PM
I'm watching @ level 2 riight now.... looks like TGB will close @ HOD ... WOW is that a big blocks right there 1 minute before the close

And it did ...nice, nice

Terlisa, thanks again for the chart...........

This one is having some serious Accumulation ............

Hi, Terlisa, TGB is still a good buy at this leave? you think how high will go? would please help me. thanks.

I too am interested in Terlisas thoughts...........

With all these analyst predicting $600 ounce +.................

I think we can take out the Feb high of 2004' of $2.30.............

Here are some predictions..........

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/waltzek/waltzek013006.html

Guru Predictions

Our guru for the week, the investment bank J.P. Morgan, is expecting much higher gold prices ahead:

"J.P. Morgan sees gold near $600/oz by year-end
LONDON (Reuters) -Gold prices may reach almost $600 an ounce by the end of the year on supply worries, firming jewellery demand, geo-political concerns and favourable currency environment, J.P. Morgan Securities said in a report on Monday.

Prices might even jump to $800 from $556 now, if Iran's nuclear issue heated up and oil hit $100 a barrel, it said. Oil prices are currently ruling at around $68.

"For gold, event risks are surfacing at a time when mining supply was already inadequate and jewellery demand firming. Fundamentals alone justify prices near $600 by year-end, while a meltdown in Iran/spike in crude could see $800 gold," it said."

Our next batch of gold pundit forecasts is brought to us by, Nicola Mawson:

"Predictions for gold's high price this year range from $760/oz to $580/oz, while its low is seen at between $520,75/oz and $425/oz.

Analysts put its average at anywhere between $618/oz and $479/oz.

Top of the log is TheBullion Desk.com analyst, Ross Norman, who made it to the shortlist for last year's winning prediction. He expects the gold price to peak at $760/oz and average at over $600/oz, but comments that 2006 was the toughest year to predict for in a generation.

Quote from: camaaron on January 30, 2006, 10:53:31 PM
Hi, Terlisa, TGB is still a good buy at this leave? you think how high will go? would please help me. thanks.

Hello camaaron, I'm not really sure how high TGB will go there is no certainty in the market.
As Holygrale said the stock is having some serious accumulation.

For me, TGB's chart is beautiful & bullish @ this point, i'll hold TGB
I think David will make an analysis on TGB in the morning, i hope so, i wanna know what his take for this stock. GOODLUCK!!


PS. thanks for the post Holygrale

I've made the following analysis on TGB yesterday:

«1. Profile

Taseko Mines Limited (TGB). The Group's principal activities are to explore the Prosperity Gold-Copper Property and operate the Gibraltar Copper Mine. These properties are situated in south central British Columbia, Canada.

A hot sector with gold at 25 year highs.

2. Technical Analysis

2.1. Long Term Chart



TGB hasn't been around for long. That can be a plus, perhaps there's value hidden on this mining stock.

2.2. Medium Term Chart



TGB is up 80% since mid December, on volume above average. The trend is bullish.

2.3. Short Term Chart



Over the short term chart we can see that the stock opened gap up today. There isn't one single opened gap since the rise began. Volume today is quite high for the time of the day, so maybe the stock is building a short term top here.

A correction would be welcome. If fundamentals are attractive I may use the correction to buy around support. We'll see ...

3. Fundamental Analysis

3.1. Number of Shares Outstanding



After all TGB has been around for much longer than I thought. My fundamental data goes all the way back to 1994, despite my Metastock chart only goes back to November 2004. What happened?

Looking at their latest Form 20 F/A, I see the company was formed in 1966 and it is a Canadian company. The company owns some mining related properties.

Well, I see the company massively selling shares in the open market to finance operations.

3.2. Working Capital



The company has some working capital, despite the very low current ratio. Assets are $114M and Liabilities are $95M.

3.3. Revenues



Wow, what happened in 2005? The company reported $87.6M in revenues for the first 3 quarters, which annualized gives me the $116.8M you see on the chart. After decades of zero in revenues and substantial losses, 2005 seems to be a blockbuster year for TGB. The mines seem to finally start producing copper and gold. Let us see some more about TGB, this is getting interesting  

At first sight the market cap seems to be about $185M (in MarketWatch and Yahoo), so $116.8M in revenues is quite a number.

3.4. Net Income



We may have about $32.5M in profits in 2005. If the market cap is really $187M, the earnings multiple is 5.75, which is extraordinarily cheap for a mining company.

3.5. Competition



This competition table shows TGB might be severely undervalued at this point.

4. General Overview

All right, what we have here is a mining company almost without operations until 2005 and then a sudden and aggressive ramp up in production. The first thing I want to see is if the market cap is correct at MarketWatch and Yahoo, which may be a bit hard because since the company is a Canadian company, it doesn't report 10-Q Forms.

I may use this to make a calculus on the number of shares outstanding:

«Taseko had after tax earnings of $24.4 million, or $0.23 per share ($0.21 per share fully diluted) in the year ended September 30, 2005.»

So, on a fully diluted basis, we have $24.4 million/$0.21 = 116.19 million shares outstanding. Given this, the current market cap is 116.19M*$1.76 = $204.49M (probably the company sold some more shares between September 30th and now. Say the number of outstanding shares is now 125 million, the market cap is $220M).

Still, the earnings multiple is something like $220M/$32.5M = 6.77, very cheap indeed.

Digging a bit further I see that TGB doesn't mine gold, it mines copper and molybdenum (whatever that is  ).

About the Gibraltar mine (in Columbia, Canada): «The Gibraltar mine reopened in October 2004 as a copper producer with a 12-year mine plan. The first fiscal quarter was largely a restart period and commercial copper concentrate production commenced on January 1, 2005. After the completion of an upgrade to the molybdenum circuit near the end of the second fiscal quarter, the mine commenced molybdenum concentrate production.»

And there's more: «In November 2005, work was re-initiated on the Prosperity Copper-Gold Project. Taseko holds a 100% interest in the Prosperity property, which encompasses 196 mineral claims covering approximately 85 square kilometres, located 125 kilometres southwest of the City of Williams Lake in south-central British Columbia. The property hosts a large porphyry copper-gold deposit amenable to large-scale open pit mining.»»

Now, the stock closed that gap during yesterday's session (the low was $1.75, and previous day's high was $1.74, so no gap).

As said in the text, TGB seems to be severely undervalued at this point, and prospects are great and solid. The market cap is just about $220M. The trend on the chart is very bullish.

There's no reason to be afraid on buying this stock after such a run up, if there's some sort of correction fundamentals will support the price. The upside is monumental.

I'll buy TGB for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio around today's open, 10% of capital.

As a community we're here to help each other through our experiences. I'm not taking issue with the TA timing of this trade or most of the fundamentals stated here but I want to relate what I know are some of the fundamental issues facing this company. First you need to know that I bought this stock in Dec 04 at 1.52 based on many fundamental issues. the two most important being the upward trend in both copper and Moly. I was right in that assesment as both prices have continued to go higher. But, Tgb had too many internal problems to get these price increases to the bottom line related to investors outlook. I doubled up on the stock in Jan of 05 at .92 and as you can see 05 was a long year until Dec. I sold 1/3 of my position at 1.55. You can only imagine how Terilisa brightened my day when he started talking about this stock on Jan 2. I would be selling another 1/3 right here but will treat my remaing position as though I entered today with DR. Now for some concerns I think we all should think about. 1. Troubles with the costs related to their copper revs. They are currently in the lowest grade in the Gibralter deposits. The CU grade is under .30%. 2. all related mining costs are inflating. 3. Lease costs of equipment continue to increase cost of production. 4. The Prosperity project is only open for a new look at the feasibility study and permitting process. 5. Company's take on Q1 reported that earnings will be FULLY TAXED. 6. In fiscal 06 production costs are expected to rise to 1.15 vs 1.02, smelter rates are going up by contract. Transportation and smelter costs are est. to be .34cents for 06 vs .25 cents. 7. It appears they may get a .04-.05 cent reduction in cost from an accounting change regarding equipment leases, change from operating lease to capital lease.These are fundamentals I am watching.
Now from BI research, a news letter that first recommended this stock in 2000. They look for fully taxed earnings for 06 to be between .16-.28
untaxed earnings for 06 to be between .23-.40
cashflow between .27-.45  upper range depends on metal prices near current levels. lower level using company's $20 Moly price and 1.80 CU
They believe fully taxed earnings will command a higher multiple. They are waiting    the reworked numbers for Prosperity.
Hope you can see I like this company almost like a child that has had a bad year and is now starting to listen to me. Just know that DR  only had a day to put out his thoughts,hope this adds to everybody ability to better understand this company.

David, nice to see a Canadian Pick. Canada has a lot of interesting stocks and it is actually easier to find real undervalued Gems here than in US.

Quote from: 1reilly on February 01, 2006, 11:08:47 AM
As a community we're here to help each other through our experiences.

Reilly,

So true! Input like yours are one of the main reasons why 3SOF is a nice place to hang around!

I am reading Taseko's annual report and can see that they had 10.5 million in interest and other income in 2005. Do you know from where (Red Mile)?

US has Edgar. Canada has Sedar: http://www.sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm

Different names but Sedar has everything an Edgar junkie can dream about!

Mike

year end summarization:

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.a95c94945226a8845aaaca151d70581d207ede115be1a694504eee4519367e45

Quote
Canada has a lot of interesting stocks and it is actually easier to find real undervalued Gems here than in US.

Hi Michael, i am glad that u like canadian stocks, as most of my money is still in canadian market. 
What do u think of the recent bull run in canada? do u think it will last?
Can you share some of your undervalued gems here?
I am holding a basket of income trusts, such as, PWT.UN , PD.UN, TDG.UN, PMT.UN, BFC.UN, ARF.UN, PGX.UN, FET.UN, SQP.UN , YLO.UN.  They pay 7%- 12% dividend, and have reasonable growth too.   Income trusts should be quite stable now after the election.
Also i hold some big cap names such as PCA (petro canada, very undervalued), ECA, TD.
and some small names in UTS, IE, MSV.V, RFM.V, and bought TKO.V on david's recommendation too.
up more than 10% so far this year, i am trimming my positions in energy into strength lately.
Hey , did u see how much SU had run since last time we talked about it? i am banging my head for not getting in ... haha .. oh well

What canadian stocks do u hold?

Thanks Mike.

Good luck!

Michael
I'm not sure where the 10.5mil came from. However, I do know that they had 4mil warrants outstanding, expiring on 12/31/05. My guess is that most of these warrants were exercised in Q4. I don't remember the terms but this would be accounted as other income. One good thing here is that going into the final days of those warrant's expiration the stock rallied about 22% in the last 2 weeks of Dec 05. Also the company has been building cash since mid year for a refinery if the economic study currently underway agrees.Also since I know you follow this industry people were very impressed with the hiring of Russell Hallbauer as Pres and CEO. He came from Teck Cominco.